The Guardian reports Essential Research, which has moved from fortnightly to weekly for the business end of the campaign, has produced the first national poll of the campaign to record movement in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. However, the shift from 51-49 to 52-48 comes despite a three-point drop in the Labor primary vote, amid a substantial increase in support for minor parties – notably the Greens, who pick up Labor’s slack by lifting from 9% to 12%. Similarly, a one point drop in the Coalition vote to 38% is mirrored by a one point gain for One Nation, now on 7%. Essential is not reporting separate figures for the United Australia Party.
It appears Essential is producing weekly results on preferred prime minister and party expected to win, but not approval and disapproval ratings. On the former question, Scott Morrison’s lead is out from 40-31 to 42-31; on the latter, Labor is down from 59% to 54%. The Guardian’s report does not provide the result for the Coalition, which was 41% last week. That will have to wait until the publication of the full report later today – as will more of the detail behind the finding that 46% prefer Labor’s policies and 36% prefer the Coalition’s. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1079. UPDATE: Full report here.
We also have the now seemingly regular weekly result for Roy Morgan (which I have deemed has come to the party too late for inclusion in BludgerTrack, or as a headline attraction on blog posts). After a lengthy period of movement to the Coalition, this records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. However, here too there is movement to the minor parties on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one to 38.5%, Labor down two to 34%, the Greens up 1.5% to 11%, One Nation up 1.5% to 4% and the United Australia Party up two to 3.5%. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 826.
Also out today is a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Mayo, published in The Advertiser. This suggests little has changed since Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance easily retained the seat from Liberal candidate Georgina Downer in the Super Saturday by-election last July. The poll credits Sharkie with a primary vote lead over Downer (who is running again) of 43% to 38%, with Labor and the Greens on 7% each and the United Australia Party on 3%. Her two-party lead is 57-43, compared with 57.5-42.5 at the by-election. The poll credits Sharkie with a 60% approval rating, with only 18% disapproving. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 557.
Some comforting numbers to conjure with. Should see PB’s collective blood pressure down a little.
These are nice results bar the low Labor primary seen now in most of the recent opinion polls (sorry to point out the only bad news).
I’m fairly confident that on the day people will decide to vote Labor instead of protesting, but if preferences flow like expected it doesn’t matter too much. If we had OPV Labor would probably struggle on these numbers.
Thanks William. Burning the early morning oil.
It still surprises me that these reports talk as though the figures show a particular movement has occurred “in this weeks poll”. Sometimes that may occur but most likely the change reflects a certain about of statistical variability which is not explained well by saying the movement is within the margin of error.
What has been quite consistent over most polls during the last year has been the Labor plus Greens total and the LNP plus ON total. The latter now at some risk because of the Palmer promotion.
Very happy to see the Essential result. I was going to guess 52/48 for both Newspoll and Essential, but was travelling too much to get the time to put the guesses in. One out of 2 ain’t bad, but also pleased to see that “the narrowing” has (at least temporarily) halted.
I voted this morning at the Australian embassy in Paris, Federal division of Sydney. The staff looked very put out to find a group of us there at 0900 on the first day of pre-polling. They managed to let us in to vote about 0930, which made the first woman to arrive quite irate – she had to catch a booked train back to her regional city and work. The staff offhandedly blamed the late opening on “renovations”.
Who voted:
With us were also two young couples, one there for study and one for a holiday, which I would guess to be ALP or Green (1/2 or 2/1), a merchant banker type (yes, that is rhyming slang) who seemed impatient and angry that he has to wait behind us plebs (I am sure he was there to vote Coalition to make sure he got his tax cuts), and an older couple who strode in as OH and I were walking out, in expensive boating casual clothes sporting big scowls, who I am sure were there to protect the franking credit income that allows them to be sailing around the Mediterranean when summer comes to Europe.
I could be wrong, but I have learned to read body language well on the hustings, so make of that small early sample what you will.
I got back to the station in time to get my train to Bonn- off to work in the morning. The alternative would have been a weekday trip to Brussels, where early voting starts next week. However, now that there is no Saturday voting at Australian foreign voting centres, I wonder how many people will just not be able to travel to an embassy to vote because of work and study commitments.
Does anyone know how overseas absentee votes tend to lean? Is the lack of Saturday voting cost cutting, or a convenient way to get rid of a particular voting demographic?
Want that primary higher not lower. Still a good result on tpp but a falling primary ain’t what I want to see eleven days out
Labor’s 34% primary vote is verging on disastrous. Especially after all its big policy announcements have been made.
It tells me that the relentless Liberal attack ads are working and people’s fear and greed are triumphing over hope and responsibly. Folk won’t admit to pollsters – perhaps not even themselves yet – that they’ll vote for this omnishambles of a government but I suspect they are coming home to Howard’s baby.
Labor is sleep walking its campaign on the basis of their 3 year old election plan. There is no apparent agility to react to the dynamics circumstances and get ahead of what’s actually happening. Stunt Morrison is winning this.
Mundo is right. We’ll be rooned.
I am starting to think there has been some narrowing of Labor’s internal polling numbers over the past few days. It’s looking like a very tight election.
I’m hoping that Labor’s ground game over the next 11 days and on election day, backed up by support from union volunteers and Getup, will tip the balance. Also, Labor is more disciplined than the LNP in allocating resources where they are most needed ie, the key marginals where the election will be won or lost. I’ve got a nervous 11 days coming up.
If there was going to be a change in government the primary votes of the opposition would be going up. Surging even. Instead, 34% – that’s below last election and heading towards where Labor was in 2013.
Consistently now in nearly every poll since the election was called Labor’s primaries has trended downwards. I’m not sure it matters that the LNP has not really moved upwards.
the lib PV has gone nowhere. I can’t see the issue
The essential is just a weird poll. It tends to suggest essential has no grip on what’s going on
Splitting greens vote 81.9% ALP, 18.1% LNP (as per KB)
Essential: ALP 43.0, LNP 40.1, OTH 16.9
Morgan: ALP 43.0, LNP 40.6, OTH 16.4
Newspoll: ALP 43.3, LNP 39.7, OTH 17
IPSOS: ALP 44.5, LNP 38.7, OTH 16.8
The first three a remarkably similar given the margin of error, and is a sign they are pretty accurate.
Keep in mind, ALP can win a majority with less than 50% because of state swings, ALP is still looking like having a majority of seats in every state except Queensland (have strengthened in Vic).
Are still favorite with bookmakers in 83 seats compared to 60 (but it has reduced by 5 AFAIK)
I see no concern about ALP losing, there might be a shift from ALP to the Green as people realize ALP doesnt really need their vote, they can use it to send a message, and still preference ALP over LNP (thats what i did).
There has previously been a similar movement between Green and Labor at essential poll.
It could be that surveys are picking up politically engaged.
However I also agree that primary of 34 is too low to be comfortable. Not too encouraging despite headline 2pp improvement.
I would say scafe campaigns are working but switch is from Labor to Green.
The results of an LNP win don’t bear thinking about.
Morrison will see himself as God’s chosen.
The implications for policies in so many areas. What nightmares.
The only reason for the switch between ALP to green that can be explained is the candidate for Melbourne. That will pass given that he has now stood down and in a week it will be a reflection of the campaign launch(Sun), Q&A(Mon), third leaders debate(Wed) and ALP Costings/bigger surplus announcement(Fri). Look how well the ALP spaced that out?
I wonder when all the polls were taken…?
Bug1. Yes I can see how labor’s strong message on climate change may see votes go to the greens, ironically. I just hope there are not too many libs giving the green a protest vote then going home. I doubt it
Labor’s focus last week when this poll was conducted was on the environment and climate change policy. Some voters appear to be sending support for this strategy by preferencing the Labor surrogate called the Greens.
I’d say it’s vindication of Labor’s clear sighted policy approach on this issue.
A couple of vignettes
Bill in Melbourne today, Scotty trying to save Susan Ley’s 20% margin in Farrer by going to Albury/Wodonga and distributing pork
And this…
Labor frontbenchers will blitz key marginal seats in Queensland in a newly rebranded bus to win over voters in in the last days of the May 18 election campaign.
With a new slogan, “hospitals and jobs before multinationals and banks” on the side of the bus, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and frontbenchers will join the bus as it travels the battleground state.
“This bus will be a constant reminder over the next 12 days that this election is a choice between the Liberals’ $77 billion tax cuts for the top end of town or better hospitals and schools under Labor,” Mr Shorten said.
“The results of an LNP win don’t bear thinking about.
Morrison will see himself as God’s chosen.
The implications for policies in so many areas. What nightmares.”
Under his eye.
In the seat of Flinders, held by Greg the Lyin’ Hunt, GetUp have made 33,000 calls.
Ah Queensland where the necks are red and the pineapples nervous.
————————————————————–
‘You don’t want to be a Nazi but you are what you allow’: Voters explain the appeal of Pauline Hanson
Gympie resident and business owner Ina Wagner says it’s very simple to understand why One Nation is so popular in this region of 50,000 people, 160 kilometres north of Brisbane.
“People here stick to basics, they’re basic people. They’re not flash, they don’t believe in any media [or] what they’re being told. They see what happens and they don’t like it,” she says.
“No one wants black Somalis robbing people…………………………..The surrounding federal electorate of Wide Bay gave One Nation a primary vote of 15.6 per cent at the 2016 election. In 1998, at the first peak of Hansonism, it was 26 per cent.
In the adjoining electorate of Hinkler, further north, One Nation’s primary vote in 2016 was 19.2 per cent – second only to Wright, around the Gold Coast hinterland, with 20.9 per cent.
https://outline.com/4CvsSZ
I kind of think it’d be better for GetUp to spend their resources in more useful seats. Changing the seat from Hunt to Banks won’t do much good if the Coalition still hold government.
And one for BK as he diligently toils his always welcome compilation, and no, it’s not the gushing royal baby piece dominating the Murdoch tabloids, but the more important news that the well bred Georgina may stumble at the last hurdle…
Ltep
In Flinders, there is no guarantee that Julia Banks will finish 2nd – Labor may. And if Liberal primary can get pushed down into the low 40s, there could be a shock result there.
Just looking at close seats on Ladbrokes;
Equal Odds;
Capricornia (QLD)
Dawson (QLD)
Lichard (QLD)
Bass (TAS)
Braddon (TAS)
Deakin (VIC)
Stirling (WA)
ALP Advantage (within 0.5)
Lindsay (NSW)
Dickson (QLD)
ALP Favoured (within 1.0)
Flyn (QLD)
Petrie (QLD)
Boothby (SA)
Latrobe (VIC)
Pearce (WA)
Swan (WA)
LNP Advantage (within 0.5)
Banks (NSW)
Herbert (QLD)
LNP Favoured (within 1.0)
Page (NSW)
Brisbane (QLD)
Casey (VIC)
EXCLUSIVE
RACHEL BAXENDALE
VICTORIAN POLITICAL REPORTER
12:00AM MAY 7, 20197 COMMENTS
GetUp says its volunteers made 33,000 phone calls to voters in the Victorian electorate of Flinders last weekend, offering an insight into the extent of the campaign Health Minister Greg Hunt faces from left-wing third parties in his Mornington Peninsula seat.
The union movement is also targeting Flinders as one of eight Victorian seats it hopes to see the Liberals lose, with a group of about 100 unionists doorknocking and holding street stalls since early this year.
Mr Hunt said he had always treated the previously safe seat he holds by 7 per cent as marginal, but one needed only pick up the local newspaper to see his opponents were leaving nothing to chance.
>………
GetUp offers three options on how-to-vote cards: Ms Banks with Labor second and the Greens third, Labor with Ms Banks second, or the Greens with Ms Banks second.
The how-to-vote card tells electors that the Banks and Greens options offer “very strong support for climate action”, while putting Labor first offers “moderate support for climate action”.
Trades Hall’s how-to-vote prioritises parties with union links ahead of Ms Banks, with Labor first, the Greens second and the Animal Justice Party third, followed by Ms Banks fourth.
………..
GetUp organiser Jake Wishart had a different message as he rallied more than 100 local schoolchildren and climate change protesters outside Mr Hunt’s Somerville office on Friday.
“This seat is really in play like never before. I’ve seen polls that show this seat on 50-50, and I think that’s why Greg Hunt’s maybe a little bit nervous,” Mr Wishart yelled through his megaphone to cheers from the crowd.
He said the organisation planned to have made 100,000 calls to Flinders voters by May 18.
Excellent result!!!
All the figures are within the MOE.
The ALP are still well on track to win on 18 May.
Morrison would rather be in Bill Shorton’s shoes this morning I bet. I’m told there is despair in the PMs camp, and the Liberal Campaign Committee are not happy at all with Morrison’s one man band campaign approach. It is all his way or the highway. He takes no advice from them.
Bill is radiating absolute confidence as the Labor Campaign ramps up in the final weeks as planned. Timing has been everything.
This time Labor will be constructively announcing policy right up to election eve. Will Morrison be able to do the same?
To all the nervous nellies here, hold your nerve, the campaign team has a well thought out plan and it is keeping the Party ahead. The demeanour from both camps shows how well it is all working.
So let’s get on with it
“notably the Greens, who pick up Labor’s slack by lifting from 9% to 12%.”…
Hands up those who believe that the Greens will get 12% in their primary vote at the Federal election.
The obvious shift of the ALP to the left (that’s been going on since 2008 but that finally very many voters realise, and that’s scaring to death bot the Coalition and Murdoch) is syphoning votes from the Greens, whereas the liberal-lites who may have voted for the Greens since Abbott became PM and afterwards, now have many local Independents to vote for, many of those independents have a former Liberal background. Therefore, the prediction is simple: at the Federal election the Greens are very likely to go backwards. Perhaps not by much, though.
Oooo a new Clive ad. This time going after the pro nuclear power ‘demographic’ . Makes a change from “boo China” and “What a feminist Clive is” ads I suppose.
This is disturbing:
That means that 1 out of 4 Labor voters can’t make up their minds about who they’s prefer as PM, and 1 in 8 thinks Morrison would be better. Yeah, I know PPM is a meaningless stat, especially if you’re going to vote for a particular party, but it can hardly be viewed as being a positive thing.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/07/labor-continues-to-lead-coalition-52-48-in-latest-guardian-essential-poll
“Labor’s 34% primary vote is verging on disastrous.”….
Oh dear, you do tend to panic a bit too easily, do you?….. Fortunately, as we have all seen yesterday on Q&A, Shorten (the “tortoise”) is calm, steady, confident, clear-minded… and ready to become PM. ScuMo (the “hare”) on the other hand is desperate, chaotic, lying, hopeless… and heady for a crashing defeat.
If the Liberal scare-campaigns were biting, wouldn’t their primary vote be going UP ..not Down?..
..asking for a friend 😉
Wow, these polls are all over the shop like a mad woman’s breakfast! Except for the headline figure, which is pretty stable at 52 or 51 for Labor to 48 or 49 for the Coalition. Which is the figure that counts, of course.
Anyway, all the polls were taken before last night’s bravura performance by Bill Shorten on QandA and Wednesday’s last debate. So I’m looking forward, cautiously, to next week’s numbers.
Essential contained this gem
“Labor’s most popular policy (76%) is the pledge to extend Medicare to cover cancer and aged care dental, while the Coalition’s stalled legislation to break up energy companies who charge too much was also strongly supported (72%).”
I see that as proof of strong socialistic leanings amongst the voters.
I know the Coalition’s policy of company breakup is to allow them to take the power station off AGL to stop its closure, most voters would not know this.
We are little different to the socially-minded country that endorsed Curtin’s social policies over 70 years ago, despite Murdoch’s efforts to make us a fascist state.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/07/labor-continues-to-lead-coalition-52-48-in-latest-guardian-essential-poll
Well that was an interesting night. Morrison channeled Clark and Dawe, about as interesting as the energiser bunny. Shorten nailed it.
‘Panicky’ Trump has been told by lawyers he can’t block Mueller testimony: ‘Resistance is futile’
According to an email sent to the Washington Post by a former White House attorney, Donald Trump has probably been informed that he has no chance of stopping special counsel Robert Mueller from testifying before a House committee about his two-year effort investigating the president.
On Sunday, Trump tweeted a demand that Mueller not appear in Congress to discuss his 400-page report.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/05/panicky-trump-has-been-told-by-lawyers-he-cant-block-mueller-testimony-resistance-is-futile/
Any one know anything about Clive and his desire for a nuclear reactor in SA?
If Clive is so anti-China, why is his Gallilee basin coal project called “China First”?
Hundreds of ex-DOJ employees say Trump would face ‘multiple felony charges’ were he not president
A large, bipartisan coalition of former Department of Justice employees has banded together to refute Attorney General Bill Barr’s declaration that President Donald Trump did not obstruct justice.
The Washington Post reports that a letter signed by more than 380 former federal prosecutors, who have worked for both Republican and Democratic administrations, asserts that special counsel Robert Mueller’s report left no doubt that Trump illegally tried to obstruct his investigation.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/05/hundreds-of-ex-doj-employees-say-trump-would-face-multiple-felony-charges-were-he-not-president/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-would-have-been-charged-with-obstruction-were-he-not-president-hundreds-of-former-federal-prosecutors-assert/2019/05/06/e4946a1a-7006-11e9-9f06-5fc2ee80027a_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.30d1e22b5c0f
The libs/nats combined primary vote cannot move from the peak 38% , no matter what the pro coalition media does .
2016 federal election the Libs/nats combined primary vote drop 3.5% (45.6 in 2013) 42.1% = 76 seats (90 in 2013)
2019 federal election if the libs/nats combined primary vote drop 4.1% (42.1% in2016) 38% = 58 seats ?
“I see no concern about ALP losing”…. I agree with bug1.
At this election, perhaps even more than on many other elections before, this is going to be a seat-by-seat contest. Overarching national polls won’t reflect the true disaster for the Coalition. That’s why the ground work of GetUp!, ACTU and ALP volunteers will be crucial, alongside Greens challenges to some Coalition seats and, above all, Independents challenges to some Coalition seats, even allegedly “ultra safe ones”.
Jaeger
Goodness me, expecting truth in a political ad from Clive ? 😆
Fox News legal analyst Andrew Napolitano: Trump’s actions are a ‘lawful constitutional basis for impeachment’
Fox News senior judicial analyst Andrew Napolitano on Monday argued that Democrats have a “basis” for impeachment because former special counsel Robert Mueller alleged that President Donald Trump committed high crimes and misdemeanors.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/05/fox-news-legal-analyst-andrew-napolitano-trumps-actions-are-a-lawful-constitutional-basis-for-impeachment/
@Deemadigan
This is interesting. How on earth does a non elected candidate give a community group $2 million? This reeks of a Georgina downer style cheque.
https://www.facebook.com/davesharmaforwentworth/videos/284445575769855?sfns=mo
He just needs some Joo Janta 200 Super-Chromatic Peril Sensitive Sunglasses.
Less panic, less tweets (with any luck.)
Splitting greens vote 81.9% ALP, 18.1% LNP (as per KB)
Essential: ALP 43.0, LNP 40.1, OTH 16.9
Morgan: ALP 43.0, LNP 40.6, OTH 16.4
Newspoll: ALP 43.3, LNP 39.7, OTH 17
IPSOS: ALP 44.5, LNP 38.7, OTH 16.8
First 3 polls show similarity and the loony leftie murdoch conspirators should just rack off.
I wonder if the disconnect between nationwide polling and the seat by seat betting markets reflects a 1998 type situation. That is, other than a few specific seats like Warringah, the Coalition are doing relatively better in the seats they already comfortably hold, and less well in the marginals.
Usually Newspoll put out a ‘marginal seats’ poll sometime of about thirty marginal seats – hasn’t happened for a long time.
Just a thought that may explain the disparity.
Of those 20 closest seats that i posted above, Labor are incumbent in 3 (Bass, Bradon, Lindsay), LNP incumbent in other 17
(I didnt include seats like Flinders, where bookmakers have LNP at longer odds, and to lose incumbency)
Why would Shorten’s performance on Q&A be a vote changer? How many undecided voters watch Q&A? Are Labor falling for Turnbull’s trap from 2016 and focusing on a positive campaign rather than a negative one? I don’t really know since I don’t watch commercial tv.
I like your spirit Red. The fact remains that all of the campaign momentum is with Morrison. He doesn’t hold out any hope and he hasn’t got much expectation of lifting the Liberal primary vote – they have proved too much of an omnishambles for that.
He does have a knack of bringing out the worst in people. If that means a vote for ON, UAP or any other RWNJ party and picking up their preferences then he’ll take it. So far this has been working. Not enough to win. Yet.
Labor on the other hand has gotten zero traction from any of its big policy announcements. Not on cancer expenses. Childcare. Education. Nothing. Nadda. Zip. All of those have been subsumed by the effective social and mainstream media ‘labor tax’ ‘Bill you can’t afford’ scare campaign. I hope at the end of the day the punters say ‘yeah. Nah’ vote this mob out. But I’m not so certain about that. At all.
Of course the Pepe and Brown EV road show has done Labor no favours. I reckon a bunch of the bohobos in Melbourne and Sydney will actually sabotage their ballot papers and put an equal number next to the Labor and Liberal candidates (thereby exhausting their vote) because as pegarex and Pepe say ‘same same’. At the other end of the continent the prospect of Labor being sympathetic to, let alone beholden to the Greens, is enough to kill Labor in Herbert and every other regional seat not of Bribie island. The problem is that the Greens are anathema to about 80% of the general population and get they sit in Labor’s left flank. Chipping. Chipping away.