The Guardian reports Essential Research, which has moved from fortnightly to weekly for the business end of the campaign, has produced the first national poll of the campaign to record movement in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. However, the shift from 51-49 to 52-48 comes despite a three-point drop in the Labor primary vote, amid a substantial increase in support for minor parties – notably the Greens, who pick up Labor’s slack by lifting from 9% to 12%. Similarly, a one point drop in the Coalition vote to 38% is mirrored by a one point gain for One Nation, now on 7%. Essential is not reporting separate figures for the United Australia Party.
It appears Essential is producing weekly results on preferred prime minister and party expected to win, but not approval and disapproval ratings. On the former question, Scott Morrison’s lead is out from 40-31 to 42-31; on the latter, Labor is down from 59% to 54%. The Guardian’s report does not provide the result for the Coalition, which was 41% last week. That will have to wait until the publication of the full report later today – as will more of the detail behind the finding that 46% prefer Labor’s policies and 36% prefer the Coalition’s. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1079. UPDATE: Full report here.
We also have the now seemingly regular weekly result for Roy Morgan (which I have deemed has come to the party too late for inclusion in BludgerTrack, or as a headline attraction on blog posts). After a lengthy period of movement to the Coalition, this records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. However, here too there is movement to the minor parties on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one to 38.5%, Labor down two to 34%, the Greens up 1.5% to 11%, One Nation up 1.5% to 4% and the United Australia Party up two to 3.5%. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 826.
Also out today is a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Mayo, published in The Advertiser. This suggests little has changed since Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance easily retained the seat from Liberal candidate Georgina Downer in the Super Saturday by-election last July. The poll credits Sharkie with a primary vote lead over Downer (who is running again) of 43% to 38%, with Labor and the Greens on 7% each and the United Australia Party on 3%. Her two-party lead is 57-43, compared with 57.5-42.5 at the by-election. The poll credits Sharkie with a 60% approval rating, with only 18% disapproving. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 557.
Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen takes shot at Trump, heads to prison
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Michael Cohen, President Donald Trump’s former personal lawyer, spoke to reporters on Monday before reporting to a federal prison to begin a three-year sentence, taking a shot at his former boss in remarks to reporters.
Cohen told journalists he hoped that once he completes his prison sentence that “the country will be in a place without xenophobia, injustice and lies at the head of our country. There still remains much to be told. And I look forward to the day that I can share the truth.”
https://www.politicususa.com/2019/05/06/trumps-former-lawyer-michael-cohen-takes-shot-at-trump-heads-to-prison.html
https://www.smh.com.au/national/liberal-party-s-lavish-fundraiser-at-justin-hemmes-waterfront-mansion-20190506-p51knn.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1557139117
The wall-to-wall anti-Labor campaigns appear to be eating away at the Labor PV. On these primaries, there must be a genuine chance that Labor lose.
The populists are the winners, it seems. Nat-Socs on the Right. Anti-worker, neo-communist splitters on the Left.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Forgive me for not linking anything about a certain birth in the UK.
Sarah Martin teases out the details of the new Essential poll.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/07/labor-continues-to-lead-coalition-52-48-in-latest-guardian-essential-poll
Neil McMahon summarises how Shorten performed on Q and A last night. And Morrison’s non-appearance on the show.
https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/q-and-a-bill-shorten-utters-the-most-powerful-and-personal-sentence-of-the-campaign-20190507-p51kp6.html
And Sam Maiden says Bill Shorten left his best answer for the last question on the ABC’s Q&A when he was asked about the leadership style he will bring if he is elected prime minister.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/05/07/qanda-bill-shorten/
According to Paul Bongiorno Morrison has pushed the panic button.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/05/06/morrison-hits-the-panic-button/
Peter Hartcher writes glowingly about Penny Wong.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/wong-has-something-you-cannot-manufacture-20190506-p51kf1.html
So THERE’S Michaelia!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/liberal-party-s-lavish-fundraiser-at-justin-hemmes-waterfront-mansion-20190506-p51knn.html
Katharine Murphy writes that an open question is will Shorten, assuming the current trajectory is maintained, with no left-field events or monumental cock-ups, be able to break the Morrison containment line sufficiently to trigger a decisive movement in Labor’s favour over this closing fortnight?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/07/polls-remain-in-labors-favour-but-bill-shorten-needs-an-emphatic-voter-choice
Michelle Grattan says that a notable feature of the campaign is that Morrison has had fewer frontbenchers at his appearances than has Bill Shorten. This is a function of gaps, poor performers, and the difficult fights some ministers are having in their seats, which are keeping them tied down.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-lots-of-ministry-spots-to-fill-if-morrison-wins-while-many-shorten-ministers-would-return-to-a-familiar-cabinet-room-116589
And she explains how Morrison was forced into accepting some inconvenient truths by Leigh Sales last night.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/06/morrison-acknowledges-budget-is-still-in-deficit-despite-back-in-black-pitch
Latika Bourke reports that Aged Care Minister Ken Wyatt spent $750,000 on staff travel in 18 months, including $108,000 in a year on an adviser subject to bullying claims who said she has a “special relationship” with the senior front-bencher.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6109595/junior-minister-spent-108000-on-travel-for-staffer-at-centre-of-bullying-claims/?cs=14350
Australia’s recent dismal economic management is revealed dramatically when outcomes are compared with the rest of the world. Alan Austin updates the sad and sorry decline.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/australias-economy-has-deteriorated-under-the-coalition,12644
Two Sydney academics explain how the major parties stack up on industrial relations policy.
https://theconversation.com/how-the-major-parties-stack-up-on-industrial-relations-policy-116256
Colin Kruger reports that Chris Bowen has questioned government approval of Brookfield’s $4.4 billion foreign takeover of Australia’s largest private hospital operator, Healthscope, over the Canadian investment giant’s use of the controversial Cayman Islands tax haven.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-s-bowen-questions-firb-approval-for-healthscope-takeover-20190506-p51kht.html
Who would have though this? Over the past decade, Alan Jones has had more complaints upheld by the communications watchdog than any other radio presenter.
https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/alan-jones-is-the-media-watchdog-s-most-pinged-broadcaster-this-decade-20190426-p51hnw.html
Michael Koziol ventures into the deep north to find out why people support PHON.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/you-don-t-want-to-be-a-nazi-but-you-are-what-you-allow-voters-explain-the-appeal-of-pauline-hanson-20190504-p51k3d.html
Paddy Gourley outlines five simple recommendations to improve government administration.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6094950/a-simple-prescription-for-better-government/?cs=14350
The SMH editorial explains how species extinction is on the agenda at this election.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/species-extinction-is-on-the-agenda-at-this-election-20190506-p51kjp.html
Professor Frank Jotzo says that modelling showing that Labor’s climate policy could cost billions is ridiculous.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/06/modelling-that-shows-labors-climate-policy-could-cost-500bn-is-ridiculous
The AFR tells us how Shorten laments a lost generation of policy reform.
https://www.outline.com/qtMHqd
A conservative Christian group set up to oppose same-sex marriage is campaigning with Muslims in Labor-held seats amid fears that religious freedom is under threat, writes Alexandra Smith.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/christian-group-rally-with-muslims-targeting-godless-alp-ahead-of-election-20190506-p51kkh.html
Labor’s digital economy spokesman, Ed Husic, has announced another new initiative to train regional workers in digital skills, as he fights a government with no minister.
https://www.outline.com/UbCMjs
From insects and animals to plants and trees, life on Earth is being wiped out at an unprecedented rate and humans are to blame. Those are the shocking findings of a landmark report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services released yesterday.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/science/2019/05/06/human-caused-mass-extinction/
Ross Gittins goes troppo over the mess universities are in. And they didn’t get there themselves.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/universities-both-sides-should-clean-up-the-mess-they-ve-made-20190505-p51k80.html
Jenna Price exhorts all people to make their precious votes count.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/every-vote-is-sacred-every-vote-is-great-make-yours-count-20190506-p51kls.html
Shane Wright and Jess Irvine tell us how the Coalition is sandbagging several previously safe seats.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/some-seats-are-better-than-others-coalition-sandbagging-key-electorates-with-taxpayer-funds-20190501-p51j6b.html
Paul Osbourne reports that Kerryn Phelps wants police to investigate the circulation of racist emails falsely claiming she is ineligible to run for Parliament.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/independent-mp-kerryn-phelps-seeks-police-probe-into-very-disturbing-emails-20190506-p51ko6.html
Professor Johanna Woodcock explains the damaging effects of negative workplace culture in the professions.
https://www.smh.com.au/healthcare/patient-safety-put-at-risk-by-negative-workplace-cultures-20190506-p51klk.html
In case RMIT/ABC Fact Check have missed this, Alan Austin analyses the facts and refutes the claims by the Coalition that it has served workers well and is the better economic manager.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/fact-check-employment-in-australia-is-worse-than-you-think/
Yet another strange PHON candidate reveals himself.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/vote-phwoar-me-one-nation-candidate-s-risque-instagram-photos-revealed-20190506-p51kno.html
After Westpac concluded this disastrous reporting season for the big banks Elizabeth Knight says that now the question is whether this latest banking crisis was wasted or whether the landscape has fundamentally changed.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/westpac-wraps-up-disastrous-profit-season-for-big-four-banks-20190506-p51klb.html
Industry professor, Warren Hogan, says that ultimately interest rates may need to be adjusted at some point, but for now there seems enough evidence to justify sitting back and waiting throughout the election campaign, and perhaps beyond, to see how the economy performs in the second half of the year.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/cut-or-wait-there-s-a-strong-case-for-keeping-interest-rates-steady-20190506-p51khk.html
The ABC is facing “inevitable” job cuts and programming disruption if the Morrison government is returned to power, the national broadcaster’s new managing director has warned. In his first interview in the new job, David Anderson told Radio National’s Patricia Karvelas that planning for two possible budget scenarios was at the top of his to-do list, after establishing a new leadership team.
https://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/abc-cuts-inevitable-if-coalition-government-returned-managing-director-warns-20190506-p51koc.html
Stephen Bartholomeusz writes that Trump’s threat to increase tariffs on China’s exports to the US might be just a crude negotiating tactic. If not, it risks a full scale trade war.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/trump-the-tariff-man-returns-to-threaten-markets-risking-full-scale-trade-war-20190506-p51kfj.html
Nicole Hemmer wonders what it says about the US Democrats to have Anders and Biden as the front runners for being their presidential candidate.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/what-does-it-say-for-the-democrats-to-have-sanders-and-biden-in-front-20190506-p51kjg.html
Nearly 400 former federal prosecutors say in a new letter that US President Donald Trump would have been charged with obstruction of justice for his acts if he were anyone other than president.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/ex-prosecutors-trump-wouldve-been-charged-if-not-president-20190507-p51kpg.html
Retail Food Group earns nomination for “ Arseholes of the Week” in acknowledging extending use-by dates on food products but says it is withdrawing them from sale by franchisees.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/06/michels-patisserie-owner-retail-food-group-admits-extending-use-by-dates-on-food
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe gives Trump another serve.
Cathy Wilcox cuts through yet again.
From Matt Golding.
John Shakespeare on Keating’s cameo.
And one from Zanetti.
David Pope ventures to the ACT electorate.
Alan Moir destroys one conservative climate change action argument.
In the Shorten bedroom with Jon Kudelka.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/01f2fb454f454d41061908c28a47a1ce?width=1024
From the US
Thanks poroti for the quotes:
1) “People here stick to basics, they’re basic people. They’re not flash, they don’t believe in any media [or] what they’re being told.”
2) “No one wants black Somalis robbing people”…
…. and they say that they “don’t believe in any media”?… Oh dear: Queensland, we have a problem!
The “black Somalis” brouhaha was in Victoria and it was a massive media beat up. But the smart and well-informed Victorians responded to the Liberal propaganda by smashing the Liberals at their latest state election.
Should we ask Queenslanders to spend a couple of years living in Victoria and then come back?… Or should we spend more money on education in Queensland?… My dear Anna P., you have a got a big task ahead of you!!
(7/5/19)This post is currently being shared on Facebook by Karla Way-McPhail, a woman that is on the board of NAIF? (North Australia Infrastructure Fund) Well no wonder that next to nothing has been committed to in the north of Australia to future proof ourselves against Climate Change
[/img]
[img]
What planet are you on @briefly?
@MissyBaileyWoof
Pays close attention to @billshortenmp. Ignores Morrison. We know where Mister B’s vote is going. #QandA #AusVotes2019
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D54imaBV4AADOJ-?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D54imaCU0AAd_nU?format=jpg&name=large
I presume Earth. A less optimistic take on the same numbers can still be believable.
AE: “Labor’s 34% primary vote is verging on disastrous. Especially after all its big policy announcements have been made. It tells me that the relentless Liberal attack ads are working and people’s fear and greed are triumphing over hope and responsibly. Folk won’t admit to pollsters – perhaps not even themselves yet – that they’ll vote for this omnishambles of a government but I suspect they are coming home to Howard’s baby.”
There are sometimes elections in which both the polls during the campaign, and then the final result (typically a hung parliament) indicate that the swinging voters are both utterly disillusioned with the incumbent government, but have no enthusiasm whatsoever for the prospect of the opposition taking charge: the 1991 NSW election and the 2010 Federal election come to mind, as do the most recent UK parliamentary elections.
I think we’re in for another one of those, although I reckon the demographic changes and redistributions do give the ALP a reasonable chance of winning a small majority.
Southern Tasmania is one of Australia’s most left-leaning regions, and yet I feel not the slightest sense here of a surging enthusiasm for a change of government. Tasmania is a place with a long tradition of people putting signs up in the front yards to support their preferred candidate, but I have never seen fewer signs around the place (although I’m told there were a lot of Liberal signs for Jessica Whelan all over Lyons: I don’t know if they’ve come down or not).
As I’ve said before, Australians are generally a wealthy and conservative lot. But fair-minded, which means that they are by no means anti-Labor, particularly at the state level. But they have long been a bit suspicious of Labor’s socialist tendencies and partisan support for the union movement. For this reason, the three winning Federal Labor campaigns in my lifetime put a very strong emphasis on the idea that they would govern on behalf of all Australians.
This time round, Labor has made it very clear that, if elected, they are dead keen to take actions that will adversely affect a large number of Australians: perhaps a million or more. This not only tends to alienate those voters, but it also potentially turns off a wider group which is looking for an inclusive message from Shorten of the type that they recall from Hawke and Rudd in particular (and don’t also forget Beazley in 1998, who won a substantial majority of votes with an inclusive sort of message of a return to the glories of the Hawke-Keating era without the abrasive Keating).
On top of this, there’s Shorten himself. While he’s shown some signs of improvement over the campaign, he is just not a guy to whom voters warm. Even most rusted-on Labor voters I know are not very impressed with him: I tend to find myself defending him to them (I see him as being a bit like Bob Carr, a bit of a charisma-free zone but a guy who might earn respect by doing a good job if elected: but first he needs to get elected).
I reckon a majority of voters are sick and tired of the Coalition and see them as having well and truly run out of steam. But Labor has made it much more difficult than they should for people to switch their vote.
But, as I’ve been saying all along, Labor might well still fall over the line. There’s are extra seats in Victoria and the ACT, and some sort of swing in WA and Qld would seem to be well overdue. Even though I expect a couple of additional seats to turn blue in outer Sydney, the combined effect of all of this might give Labor a 3-5 seat majority or, if the chips fall their way, even slightly more than this.
But, by rights, it should have been an easy win for them. And there’s still a chance that they might not make it. Nobody really knows where all those PHON and UAP preferences are going to end up.
So AE, while I think you are a little more pessimistic than you should be, I do get where you’re coming from.
With respect to Labor’s primary vote, the elephant in the room is climate change voters … they will want Labor to win but will put candidates backing strong climate action first, hence the bump in Greens primary vote … and many of them will be young first time voters, which should be a red flag for the major parties but isn’t yet …
I thought the most significant thing from QandA last night was that Morrison is too afraid to do a solo appearance in front of a QandA audience.
Morrison wants to join his cabinet in hiding.
@thisisAimeeC
The latest on measles: CDC reporting 60 more cases, bringing the total to 764 cases in 23 states so far this year.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/holes-herd-immunity-led-25-year-high-us-measles-cases
@ltep
Yup and the media got you where they want you to be, I think Labor is being underestimated due to the massive increase of media bias in this election.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/after-300-years-splendid-red-gum-will-be-felled-for-north-east-link-20190506-p51kks.html
poroti @ #1 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 4:56 am
Not if you listen to Andrew-Earlwood and the half-Hanrahan, Outsider. mundo has gotten inside their heads. Which is his aim I suppose.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/junior-minister-spent-108-000-on-travel-for-staffer-at-centre-of-bullying-claims-20190505-p51kco.html?btis
Labor have not lost a poll and still there are people that are saying that their performance is just not good enough! Sheesh!
I think probably the last South Australian election was another example of an unenthusiastic change of government.
jeffemu
What a blood boiling degree of bullshit from coal mining shill Karla Way- McPhail. 10,000 times, FMD, lying piece of shit.
https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/abc-cuts-inevitable-if-coalition-government-returned-managing-director-warns-20190506-p51koc.html
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 7:34 am
Labor have not lost a poll and still there are people that are saying that their performance is just not good enough! Sheesh!
————————
If the opinion polls are reflected on Election day
labor will win the election comfortably the libs/nats combined primary vote is 4-5% below where it needs to be .
Watching the reaction from the coalition supporters , they know its over for the libs/nats they are just going through the motions in waiting for the federal election to be over and prepared for a Labor government
This article outlines what many of us have been saying about the Greens. Their vote has stagnated.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-06/greens-federal-election-stability-not-growth/11081980
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/06/australias-capital-cities-face-water-restrictions-as-dams-near-50?CMP=share_btn_tw
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/06/australias-political-parties-urged-to-act-as-un-panel-issues-grim-extinction-warning?CMP=share_btn_tw
An interesting test of the courts coming up. How are Republicans continually able to get away with flouting conventions and the constitution?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2019/05/06/mnuchin-says-he-wont-give-trumps-tax-returns-to-congress-all-but-ensuring-a-court-battle/?utm_term=.62377224b442
poroti @ #68 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 7:35 am
Abso-bloody-lutely!
Mt Etna erupts once and you can do nothing about it. Coal-fired Power generation goes on all over the world every day and you CAN do something about it! 😡
Yep very worrying trend in all the polls for ALP primary. As a self funded retiree I might have to go out and get some credits to frank (Yes I have a boat 2 actually)
And bugger all the ALP TV adds in the Hunter TV stations. Wall to wall scare adds from Libs and Palmers crap that’s it. I guess saving the cash for more marginal areas/seats.
There Andrew, you’ve lifted your chin already. I used to be like you once, heavily involved in the Party, live each day of the campaign in a state of nervous tension. The ups and downs and merry go rounds drove me and my poor OH crazy.
As I got older I changed. My period in serving in the upper ranks of the Party and union movement gave me a new perspective. I view elections somewhat more dispassionately now.
Makes for a happier house
I just spoke to my friends in Canberra again just now and what I said about the despair in the Liberal Campaign is true.
Morrison is running this show and is taking NO advice from them, much to their chagrin. He is doing this election his way and it will tell in the end.
We are going to win.
AE: “Labor on the other hand has gotten zero traction from any of its big policy announcements. Not on cancer expenses. Childcare. Education. Nothing. Nadda. Zip. All of those have been subsumed by the effective social and mainstream media ‘labor tax’ ‘Bill you can’t afford’ scare campaign.”
To raise another example from the past, how about the 2004 campaign, when Labor ran with what it thought would be a huge vote-winner: “Medicare Gold” for all older Australians (ironically, when you consider how much flak the US health system gets from the left around the globe, modeled pretty closely on the US Medicare scheme).
But any lift for Labor from this was swept away by the negativity of Labor’s proposals to take government funding away from the top private schools. Most Australians weren’t affected by this, but the “us and them” nature of the proposal knocked the steam out of Labor’s campaign, and fueled a growing mistrust of Latham (who had started the campaign as a more popular leader than Shorten has ever been).
IMO it’s always important for Labor to run with a message of inclusiveness.
Very depressing news on the environment front today.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/05/06/one-million-species-face-extinction-un-panel-says-humans-will-suffer-result/?utm_term=.09c997053803
Terminator @ #75 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 7:48 am
I have noted the same in Monash Vic, at least on the regional 10/Win stations.Have not seen one labor add and if I have it didn’t scare me.
Garrett M. Graff
THREAD: As Michael Cohen reports to prison today, here’s a rundown of the criminal probes *still* facing Trump’s world—I counted them up and there are at least 16 known investigations, not counting *any* of Mueller’s 12 unknown criminal referrals: …
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1125453391751262208.html
Worth pointing out that the ALP always wins in the teeth of media opposition.
Daniel Andrews had both ‘The Age’ and ‘The Herald Sun’ against him – from memory (oh, gee, sorry, suck it up, I’m not going to pretend I’m absolutely certain about something when I’m not) ‘The Age’ editorial did a reluctant ‘vote for Labor if you must’ and The H-S were advocating Guy.
We all know how that turned out.
Rn brekkie all about how labor gets it’s polocoes through, not about who’ll win. Quite like that optic tbh.
To: “meher baba
says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 7:27 am”
No, there is no hung Parliament anywhere to be seen in the real possibilities:
a) The ALP is unlikely to lose seats, let alone many seats.
b) The ALP will gain quite a few news seats.
c) The Coalition are heading for a considerable loss of seats.
d) The Independents are more likely to take Liberal/Nationals seats than ALP seats.
e) The Greens won’t take enough new ALP seats (in fact, they are likely to take no new ALP seat) to make any difference.
With the Coalition losing seats, the ALP net-gaining several seats at the expense of the Coalition, and the minors/independents taking additional Coalition seats: where is the pathway to a hung Parliament?
There is, however, a clear pathway to an important defeat of the Coalition, which will unleash a very serious period of instability for them in opposition.
phoenixRed:
I’m glad Cohen was unable to wrangle himself less jail time, especially given Manafort’s light sentence.
Can I just tell you, as I head out for another morning of Pre Poll work, that Labor’s Cancer Care policy IS resonating with voters. It is constantly brought up with me. As is Labor’s push to make the Banks accountable via the Royal Commission. They appreciate the effort made on their behalf.
So, can the Hanrahans here just take a Chill Pill!?! You’re hashing my vibe! 😡
I just saw a liberal ad on channel 7, said something like ‘bill Australia can’t afford with shitty graphics.
Red13 says:
…
Morrison is running this show and is taking NO advice from them, much to their chagrin. He is doing this election his way and it will tell in the end.
We are going to win.
Do you think it would have been any different if Liberal central had run the campaign? It sounds more like the start of the blame game.
@frednk
Morrison Is a control freak.
I have to say alot of bed wetting going on in PB this week. I remain confident that the 2PP is stuck on 52-48 since a fortnight ago, that the majority have made up their minds already and just want this chitt over with, and that Labor will win enough scrambled eggs seats to finish with a comfortable majority.
Unless there is a massive gotcha moment for Shorten, its game over. He was never ‘popular’ but Schomo is running a presidential campaign and it will bite him on the ass come election day.
Same same results in Tasmania can be expected..the two southern seats are no chance zones. The resources are being tipped into Bass and Braddon. Four Labor, one Indy, Coalition Zip.
Morrison is travelling to Farrer today where the Nats are in danger of losing a seat with a 20% margin.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-s-bowen-questions-firb-approval-for-healthscope-takeover-20190506-p51kht.html
An astounding example of how people resist change. Surely the man knows that polluting the ocean is going to hurt the tourism industry. But crushing the cars for waste shipment gives them sharp edges. Jesus!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-07/norfolk-island-becoming-choked-with-derelict-cars/10961870
[This article outlines what many of us have been saying about the Greens. Their vote has stagnated.]
The Essential report, the subject of this thread, records a surge in the green vote to well above 2013 and 2016 levels and an ALP primary between 2013 and 2016
Brave Sir Scrott rides off to save a damsel in distress.
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PM rides in to save Ley’s seat
The PM will be in Albury-Wodonga, near Farrer where Sussan Ley’s safe seat is under threat from an independent.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/federal-election-2019-campaign-day-27/news-story/2f3b5c18091470f2b8e9d990b9f1cacb
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2019/05/06/mnuchin-says-he-wont-give-trumps-tax-returns-to-congress-all-but-ensuring-a-court-battle/?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.81402f1aeece
Morning all. Thanks BK. I thought Shorten went well on QandA and Morrison continues to plainly lie. Like others I find the polls bizarrely generous to the coalition.
That being said I am not as pessimistic as some here. New seats mean Labor only needs to pick up 3-4 to claim government. That should happen at 51/49. Anything better increases the margin.
People worry about Liberal dirty tricks between now and polling day. Liberal exposure is also possible. I would still love to hear who Barnaby gave $60 million to? Or who got tipped off about the banking RC and splurged half a billion on bank shares the day the recommendations were announced? So many unresolved scandals linked to this incompetent, regressive government.
The thing is, Australia CAN afford Labor’s programs and policies. We are a rich, 1st world country, ffs!
Reckon people are more interested in the following at the moment –
– up and coming State of Origin games in Qld and NSW
– the Showdown between Port and Adelaide in SA
– Collingwood to obliterate Carlton this weekend and will Gary Ablett get off
– not sure what our WA people are thinking at the moment. Are West Coast having a hangover and are Fremantle the real deal?
Confessions says: Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 8:00 am
phoenixRed:
I’m glad Cohen was unable to wrangle himself less jail time, especially given Manafort’s light sentence.
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I think he chose jailtime to save himself …… and his family …… for not revealing all ….. but :
Former Trump “fixer” Michael Cohen is due to report to prison on Monday — and CNN’s Jeffrey Toobin said that he’s understandably furious that he’s being sent to jail while the man who allegedly ordered him to commit crimes still gets to be president.
“The remarkable thing about Michael Cohen is, if you look at his crimes — and they are real crimes — all of them, with one exception, were for the benefit of Donald Trump,” he said. “He didn’t get anything out of the illegal campaign contributions, out of his false testimony to Congress, his bank fraud to get money to pay off Stormy Daniels. His tax fraud is a separate issue.”
“The idea that Michael Cohen is going to prison for three years when Donald Trump is president of the United States, no one else has been prosecuted for that stuff, you can see why he’s a pissed-off dude,” he said.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/05/michael-cohen-iss-pissed-off-hes-going-to-jail-while-trump-is-still-president-cnns-toobin/