The Guardian reports Essential Research, which has moved from fortnightly to weekly for the business end of the campaign, has produced the first national poll of the campaign to record movement in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. However, the shift from 51-49 to 52-48 comes despite a three-point drop in the Labor primary vote, amid a substantial increase in support for minor parties – notably the Greens, who pick up Labor’s slack by lifting from 9% to 12%. Similarly, a one point drop in the Coalition vote to 38% is mirrored by a one point gain for One Nation, now on 7%. Essential is not reporting separate figures for the United Australia Party.
It appears Essential is producing weekly results on preferred prime minister and party expected to win, but not approval and disapproval ratings. On the former question, Scott Morrison’s lead is out from 40-31 to 42-31; on the latter, Labor is down from 59% to 54%. The Guardian’s report does not provide the result for the Coalition, which was 41% last week. That will have to wait until the publication of the full report later today – as will more of the detail behind the finding that 46% prefer Labor’s policies and 36% prefer the Coalition’s. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1079. UPDATE: Full report here.
We also have the now seemingly regular weekly result for Roy Morgan (which I have deemed has come to the party too late for inclusion in BludgerTrack, or as a headline attraction on blog posts). After a lengthy period of movement to the Coalition, this records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. However, here too there is movement to the minor parties on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one to 38.5%, Labor down two to 34%, the Greens up 1.5% to 11%, One Nation up 1.5% to 4% and the United Australia Party up two to 3.5%. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 826.
Also out today is a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Mayo, published in The Advertiser. This suggests little has changed since Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance easily retained the seat from Liberal candidate Georgina Downer in the Super Saturday by-election last July. The poll credits Sharkie with a primary vote lead over Downer (who is running again) of 43% to 38%, with Labor and the Greens on 7% each and the United Australia Party on 3%. Her two-party lead is 57-43, compared with 57.5-42.5 at the by-election. The poll credits Sharkie with a 60% approval rating, with only 18% disapproving. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 557.
The “old-style Labor plurality” is at best 43%. It’s gonna be hard to win. When Hawke won, this plurality – the Labor-positive ‘base’ – was above 48%. The institutionalised split in this plurality and the steady rise of multiple pop-Right voices will make it very difficult for Labor to govern even if we do win.
Ordinarily, dissention on the Right should favour the left. But it ain’t so now. The new political brands are Rightist and the are attracting both past-Lib and past-Labor support. And at the same time, the Lib-kin-Green are also sapping Labor support. Perhaps this outfit is also attracting past-Lib support that will return to the Libs when prefs are distributed.
Australian politics is becoming more and more dysfunctional as the pop-voices gain more support.
@briefly
That’s because of Australian media against the Labor Party.
And the fact that Labor won’t sign a deal with the enemy of Australia.
We need to have more faith in Australians and their self interest.
Their health or Murdoch’s health?
@meher baba
I share your assessment there could be a hung parliament come in the election, I believe that is a possiblity, either that or a narrow Labor majority.
Whichever way we look at it, 2/3 of voters intend to give their first prefs to anti-worker parties. This is a dismal state of affairs.
Everything Trump Touches Dies.
But I don’t feel any sympathy for Cohen. He must’ve known what he was up to wasn’t legit – I’m sure your average lawyer doesn’t have so many disposable mobile phones in his possession, or heavies and strong arms women.
Oops spoke to soon, CH7 just played an ALP add. It had a Turnbull/ScoMo besties theme with the Palmer preference deal thrown in for good measure.
I wonder if the increase in the Green/minor party vote is due to the disendorsement scandals and if it will revert back to Labor if the news cycle moves on to something different in the next week and a bit?
Just did a count of the polls in the Poll Data on William’s Bludgertrack.
Since the 2016 election this Essential Poll is the 207th poll included – (Essential, YouGov, ReachTel, Ipsos, Newspoll – Morgan not in Bludgertrack because of lack of publishing record)
Two of them, the 8th and 11th (both Newspoll) show the Coalition at 50-50 TPP, the other 205 have Labor ahead. Labor has been ahead for the last 196 polls on Bludgertrack – it is amazing, and I wonder if there will be four more polls before election day so that a unique ‘double-century’ could be achieved. I expect there will be a Newspoll and Essential next Sunday/Tuesday, and a Newspoll just prior to election day. One more and the 200 remains in reach.
It is a remarkable sequence – almost like many Australians voted for the “Turnbull Coalition Team” narrowly in 2016 and then instantly had buyer’s remorse and have stayed that way for three years. The one-sided nature of the polls over nearly three years is pretty much unprecedented for one whole term of office.
So PB will be Snowflake Central for the day.
Pass.
I think PBers are on to something regarding the nature of the election campaign.
Labor the the LNP (well the Libs anyway) have adopted quite different tactics. The Liberal one is plain to see – Morrison, front and centre, hide your dangerous big-mouths, sandbag your “must keep seats” and bash Labor (boring repetition with shallow, meaningless and largely untrue TV ads to the point of irritation for everyone) with fear. In the meantime Labor is working on seats to win……….and this seems to be at the expense of seats it does not expect to lose.
The problem for the Libs is they have a lot more seats to protect and the prospect of winning many seats is grim.
Questions: Which party was, is and probably will be, on the back foot until May Day? When was the last time the LNP won government with a PV where it is now? While it is a nervous time for Labor supporters, which position would you rather be in?
None of this means Labor will win, but it should………..baring something very unusual happening.
This has been described as a “climate change’ election. If this is so, the increase in the Lib-kin vote is explicable by voter expression on this issue. Makes sense. The very great tragedy is, of course, that the rise in support for the Lib-kin at the expense of Labor and the ongoing anti-Labor campaign by the Lib-kin will help re-elect the Libs. Australian politics is dysfunctional. Gotta face that.
@briefly
Honestly an economic crisis on the scale of Ireland’s during the Global Financial Crisis will be needed to get a lot of Australians out of their complacency as I see it. Before the most voters are looking for is a local version of Justin Trudeau not Jeremy Corbyn or Bernie Sanders.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #6 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 5:46 am
Most of Labor’s policy announcements have been in the form of “we’ll fund X with $Y”. I don’t think that’s how you get votes, at least not from the younger half of the electorate. Labor also needs to emphasize:
1. We’ll take action on climate change.
2. We’ll have a Federal ICAC and end the corruption and rorts.
3. We’ll do proper recognition of Australia’s indigenous people.
All of which he more or less said on Q&A (except maybe the second thing). Those sorts of things need to have equal (or higher) billing with every “we’ll fund X with $Y” announcement.
Tristo, an economic crisis will be blamed on Labor and on working people. Count on it.
A very surprising headline to find in this particular shit sheet.
.
.
Motor mouth Morrison: Prime Minister slammed for ‘rambling’ interview as he talks over frustrated Leigh Sales who struggles to get a question in – before ending segment with awkward stare
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6997131/Prime-Minister-Scott-Morrison-slammed-rambling-interview-talks-ABCs-Leigh-Sales.html
The Essential Report finds that the people surveyed supported Labor policies to LNP 46% to 36%. I would think that is a very high lead for this measure. A 10% gap in 1.5m voters. It is hard to imagine that a large number of these voters will say – well I like the Labor policies but I’m going to vote for teamless Mr Morrison.
On policies, apart from the usual fallacious economic claims, I see the LNP capping of migration at a lower level and the “congestion busting” infrastructure claims resonating with people and helping the LNP and friends stay in the race. Don’t see any gain for Labor (and Greens to an extent) being seen as the parties for bigger faster Australia.
And a bit more………straws in the wind………….The usual bellicose pro-Coaltion West newspaper is strangely subdued today with, basically, one page of election stuff. Their comment about yesterday was that it was a “low key day”. Can you beat that?
In the meantime, and much to my surprise, the “Who won the day?” thing they have been running has the score 9-9-7……….that is Morrison and Shorten on level pegging. Now this is either hedging bets or some sense of resignation. The big news in the West is to ask where Mike Nahan is, as the knives are out for him. Dean Nalder is being groomed for leadership of the local Libs I suspect.
As well, in the Perth electorate, the local Labor member is out and about and the Liberal candidate all but invisible………this has certainly not be the case in the last two or three Federal elections and from the time of Smith, Perth has been at risk for Labor.
All of the above, and what is to be gleaned here, is the quite different approaches to the campaign and only time will tell which will win…………a sense of better change in the future or more of the same. As some posters have mentioned it does come down to overcoming the innate reluctance of the Oz electorate to make changes unless they have a good reason to – and it is only this which is even giving the LNP a sniff
Confessions says: Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 8:21 am
But I don’t feel any sympathy for Cohen. He must’ve known what he was up to wasn’t legit – I’m sure your average lawyer doesn’t have so many disposable mobile phones in his possession, or heavies and strong arms women.
********************************************************
Day by day it is clearer that it is not a presidency but is a criminal enterprise – run by a racketeering mobster and his crime family – all lining their own pockets …… and supported by a cast of underlings like Cohen, Barr, Munchin etc etc …. and cowardly GOP members who refuse to put their country above their own political survival
Todays Washington Post :
More than 450 former federal prosecutors who worked in Republican and Democratic administrations have signed on to a statement asserting special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s findings would have produced obstruction charges against President Trump — if not for the office he held.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-would-have-been-charged-with-obstruction-were-he-not-president-hundreds-of-former-federal-prosecutors-assert/2019/05/06/e4946a1a-7006-11e9-9f06-5fc2ee80027a_story.html?utm_term=.7dfed8023e32
@briefly
What if happens under a Coalition (even in a minority) government? because I am anticipating this will happen in the next couple of years. So this election could be actually be a great one for Labor to lose.
The sort of economic crisis I am anticipating is similar to the one which happened in Ireland in 2008 after it’s housing market bust. Australia’s housing market I predict will crash soon and the banks will need to be bailed out or face failure. An economic depression would soon follow with unemployment soaring to say 20%.
Confessions
What keeps not being mentioned re Cohen are his two main crimes, tax evasion and bank fraud. He got off pretty lightly.
“people surveyed supported Labor policies to LNP 46% to 36%”
Which policies exactly are the 36% supporting?
Morning all
Thanks BK, Phoenix and ors for today’s reports.
I saw snippets of Shorten on Q&A. He did very well.
Red13
I have heard from Liberal workers in Victoria that they are just looking forward to the whole thing being over, and that there is likely to be a big exodus of ‘back-room’ staff afterwards – they are sick of being the punching bags for an increasingly out of touch hierarchy, and many are very disappointed at the direction people like Michael Sukkkar are taking their party in.
Which of course will likely exacerbate their party’s problems in the near future.
@Tristo
The fact these polls are not steady as someone think, I think that Labor will win.
Liberals offered nothing other than sand bagging their current seats, and to not touch existing policies, so that old people and rich people continue to benefit.
Let’s not forget that Liberals put ScoMo in the centre for a reason, to lose the election.
Coalition Party will not survive a minority government.
It will have to sell everything except it’s arse.
Despite all the headwinds from the MSM, I am confident to hold the faith that this obnoxious government will be defeated and Australia will get the social & economic reset it desperately needs, and that most people seem to want.
There are just too many seats that Labor can pick up with just the slightest of nudges in their favour.
I expect the persistent tracking of PollBludger at 52/48 will continue up to election day.
Here we go. Bill Maher has been warning us for years about Trump’s slow moving coup. No wonder Pelosi is warning Dems need to win bigly next year to ensure he is seen off.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/05/06/claiming-two-years-his-presidency-were-stolen-trump-suggests-hes-owed-overtime/?utm_term=.05794602b648
The irony/tragedy is that many One Nation voters actually support left positions on individual policies. It’s the feelings of dislocation/alienation/fear which the Tories are adept at using to get people like that to vote against their economic interests.
It doesn’t help that the “left” are often seen, or are successfully portrayed, as being part of an unsympathetic international class of PC imposers.
In the mood this morning, and Rocket Rocket, while Labor has been in the lead for all those opinion polls for so long, the election is not in the bag by any means. If should be Labor does lose, it would beg the question of what is the use of any opinion poll, in terms of any sense of predictive value, other than a those a day or two out from the election itself? The old political saw about the “only poll that counts is the one on election day” will seem to have a lot of validity.
And for those with their helpful advice on how Labor should run the campaign – given that Labor must have had a bunch of blind/deaf/stupid people leading it for the last three years – I suggest you offer your advice – which may be of some value, or just plain useless, after the election.
I sure it will be appreciated.
For the 6 days of prepoll at the booth I have been working the Greens have shown their environmental credentials by regularly sipping coffee from disposable cups. I despair.
Given that Sharkie and Steggall have committed to supporting the Coalition on confidence and supply, Labor realistically need a minimum of 74 seats, a notional gain of two seats, to form government.
If they get to 73 (a notional gain of one) Bandt and Wilkie will not be sufficient for them if every other crossbencher supports the Coalition.
I think the Coalition will win Herbert and two of Bass, Braddon and Lindsay from Labor, leaving Labor to try to pick up five seats elsewhere (seven for a majority), not including Corangomite and Dunkley which are notionally already theirs. Tougher than you think……
https://junkee.com/scott-morrison-clive-palmer/204245
@Cameron C.
The current trajectory is about 80 odd seats.
Not the low 70s.
ltep re Essential on policies – its an overall assessment which should be very telling. Usually there is a long list of policies which are polled which return about 50:50 as to which party has better policies over the dozen or so policies listed. Then often a Q about which policies are seen as more important – which often are hard to interpret because people come at them from different viewpoints. No doubt the 36% favour the LNP filling their pockets but beyond that???
swamprat
It’s like the Southern Strategy of Nixon from 1968, and still going today, to get the poorest states in the Union in the Deep South like Alabama and Mississippi to vote against their own interests by backing the Republicans at all levels of Government. Hard to change the mind-set.
When will the Bludger Track be updated to include the recent Ipsos, NewsPoll and this mornings Essential Poll results? Being from Queensland I believe Labor are likely to win a maximum of 4 seats from the Coalition all from SE Qld. I believe the Adani issue will cost Labor winning any Regional Coalition seats and will have a battle to retain Herbert. So if the polls remain at 51.5 to 48.5 to Labor as evidenced by the average of the 4 recent polls ( Ipsos, Newspoll, Essential and Morgan) then Labor are on track to win around 80 seats.
BludgerTracker
https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/
84-61 to Labor.
(before the new swag of polls).
Whenever he is asked why he is not popular (according to the various polls) why doesn’t Bill just say
“OK, i’m not as popular as some(except for those who really know me) but this is not a Miss World contest run by Donald Trump; this is about leading Australia well & fairly to the best of my ability. If I become PM then Australians will have a better chance to get to know me – for my policies- And I am more than happy to run with that. “
For those who might be interested, there’s an omen bet at the Menangle trots today called The Space Invader. (race 4 No. 6).
It’s trainer and driver both have the surname of Morris. Not quite Morrison but close enough.
I’ll report back on how it goes.
WB has updated Bludgertrack for Newspoll and Ipsos (no 2PP changes but small gains for Greens, ON, small drops for majors) ) but not Esssential yet.
”
Tricot says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 8:36 am
And a bit more………straws in the wind………….The usual bellicose pro-Coaltion West newspaper is strangely subdued today with, basically, one page of election stuff. Their comment about yesterday was that it was a “low key day”. Can you beat that?
In the meantime, and much to my surprise, the “Who won the day?” thing they have been running has the score 9-9-7……….that is Morrison and Shorten on level pegging. Now this is either hedging bets or some sense of resignation. The big news in the West is to ask where Mike Nahan is, as the knives are out for him. Dean Nalder is being groomed for leadership of the local Libs I suspect.
As well, in the Perth electorate, the local Labor member is out and about and the Liberal candidate all but invisible………this has certainly not be the case in the last two or three Federal elections and from the time of Smith, Perth has been at risk for Labor.
All of the above, and what is to be gleaned here, is the quite different approaches to the campaign and only time will tell which will win…………a sense of better change in the future or more of the same. As some posters have mentioned it does come down to overcoming the innate reluctance of the Oz electorate to make changes unless they have a good reason to – and it is only this which is even giving the LNP a sniff
”
From the very low PVs in Newspoll, Essential, Ipsos & Morgan for ALP, can I say that I am very disillusioned with Australian electorate. As somebody put it is pathetic that ALP PV is lower than this worthless LNP PV in all instances & so close to election. We are actually voting now as we speak in large number (Pre-poll).
Tristo,
Your worst day in government is better than your best day in opposition. Fact. There isn’t an election a Party doesn’t want to win.
Went through odds (ladbrokes) more thoroughly;
Safe ALP (odds difference >1): 72
Safe LNP (odds difference >1): 48
Close ALP vs LNP (odds difference <= 1): 22
Close LNP vs IND (odds difference 1 away from favourite): 4
Safe IND: 3
Safe GRN: 1
Close ALP vs GRN: 1
For LNP to get a majority then need all their safe seats (48), plus all their close seats (22 vs ALP, 4 vs IND), plus 2 more where they are outsiders (>1 greater odds than favourite.
For ALP to get a majority they need all their safe seats (72), plus 4 of the close seats (22 vs IND, 1 vs GRN)
Its over, im calling it.
EDIT: some text disappeared…
What a great article by Paul Bongiorno, he tells it how it is.
The Morrison panicking and the Liberal apparatchiks despairing story is what my friends in Canberra are saying.
All they have is Kill Bill, Kill Bill!!!!
Hasn’t worked in the past, will not work now.
But, by heavens, Bongiorno proves time and time again he has his fingers on the pulse of this election. Salute!!!!
BTW Hartcher’s article fulsomely praising Penny Wong is a pointer to the future as well. You do not see that often.
Anyway, if u already haven’t, read Bongiorno today, he is spot on.
meher baba says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 7:27 am
AE:”This time round, Labor has made it very clear that, if elected, they are dead keen to take actions that will adversely affect a large number of Australians: perhaps a million or more. ”
————————–
Could you please explain how “perhaps a million or more” will be adversely affected. Where does that number come from? How exactly will that number be adversely affected?
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“Even most rusted-on Labor voters I know are not very impressed with him:”
—————————
Where the bloody hell have you been for the past week? Did you not watch the two debates and the Q and A tour de force? Given Shorten’s almost flawless performance, how can you have any confidence in the judgement of “most rusted-on Labor voters that you know.” I appreciate your efforts to persuade them, but I think you need to get out more and find some new friends.
——————
” But Labor has made it much more difficult than they should for people to switch their vote.”
—————-
So there is nothing in Labour’s platform that you can see as appealing to voters?
————————
“But, by rights, it should have been an easy win for them. ”
But you have said: ” Australians are generally a wealthy and conservative lot. But fair-minded, which means that they are by no means anti-Labor, particularly at the state level.”
With 49 per cent of voters ready to vote for the snake-oil salesman, his rabble and their creed of greed, do you still insist that Australians are fair-minded?
————————
What a farrago of nonsense.
The other half of me (not the Hanrahan half!) sees a path over the next 11 days where Labor surges as the dreadful reality of another 3 years with the clown as PM sinks in with voters, compared with the united, competent, progressive Labor team, committed to fairness in Australian society, led by hard working Bill Shorten. I would love nothing more than a 56/44 win on election day, with further splintering of the Liberal Party and its possible demise in the form we currently know it, in the wake of its electoral decimation. And I expect that as PM, Shorten will grow in stature and public trust – in much the same way as did Howard. Words cannot express how much I hope for that scenario to unfold over the next 11 days.
”
Tricot says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 8:45 am
it would beg the question of what is the use of any opinion poll, in terms of any sense of predictive value, other than a those a day or two out from the election itself? The old political saw about the “only poll that counts is the one on election day” will seem to have a lot of validity.
”
You are wrong because Australians are voting in large numbers in Pre-poll as we post. So it tells how people are voting now.
Newstart will increase under Labor.
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/bill-shorten-confirms-newstart-will-increase-under-labor-20190506-p51kok
Where can one find how many pre-poll votes there have been?
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
I watched Q&A and was very impressed with Mr. Shorten. Not so much with Mr. Jones who apparently though applause may not have been for him and therefore should be stopped.
I noted a comment at the bottom of the TV screen to the effect
“Residents in Aged Care have continence products rationed.”
So this form of utter bastardry is still going on. I argued with staff, management, complaints support, inspection teams – to no avail.
Two pads per resident per diem perhaps (old military parlance).
My senior executive, bossy type daughter still insists that I was wrong because there was a pad in the wardrobe. It’s probably still there.
So any bed wetting on PB should be confined to those who have an adequate supply of said nappies.
I’m seeing (after crystal ball consultation) an election result as follows.
55 LNP 95 Labor 1 Grn
♫Happy days are ♫ here ♪again.
La da de ♫ dum♪ dum.
☮☕
Note – any disagreement should be referred to 👑 Mr. W. Bowe Esq. 👑
booleanbach @ #136 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 8:53 am
Or also “The ‘preferred PM’ metric tends to skew towards the incumbent PM. How about we wait and see what the number is like after I’m PM?”.