The Guardian reports Essential Research, which has moved from fortnightly to weekly for the business end of the campaign, has produced the first national poll of the campaign to record movement in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. However, the shift from 51-49 to 52-48 comes despite a three-point drop in the Labor primary vote, amid a substantial increase in support for minor parties – notably the Greens, who pick up Labor’s slack by lifting from 9% to 12%. Similarly, a one point drop in the Coalition vote to 38% is mirrored by a one point gain for One Nation, now on 7%. Essential is not reporting separate figures for the United Australia Party.
It appears Essential is producing weekly results on preferred prime minister and party expected to win, but not approval and disapproval ratings. On the former question, Scott Morrison’s lead is out from 40-31 to 42-31; on the latter, Labor is down from 59% to 54%. The Guardian’s report does not provide the result for the Coalition, which was 41% last week. That will have to wait until the publication of the full report later today – as will more of the detail behind the finding that 46% prefer Labor’s policies and 36% prefer the Coalition’s. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1079. UPDATE: Full report here.
We also have the now seemingly regular weekly result for Roy Morgan (which I have deemed has come to the party too late for inclusion in BludgerTrack, or as a headline attraction on blog posts). After a lengthy period of movement to the Coalition, this records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. However, here too there is movement to the minor parties on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one to 38.5%, Labor down two to 34%, the Greens up 1.5% to 11%, One Nation up 1.5% to 4% and the United Australia Party up two to 3.5%. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 826.
Also out today is a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Mayo, published in The Advertiser. This suggests little has changed since Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance easily retained the seat from Liberal candidate Georgina Downer in the Super Saturday by-election last July. The poll credits Sharkie with a primary vote lead over Downer (who is running again) of 43% to 38%, with Labor and the Greens on 7% each and the United Australia Party on 3%. Her two-party lead is 57-43, compared with 57.5-42.5 at the by-election. The poll credits Sharkie with a 60% approval rating, with only 18% disapproving. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 557.
As someone who has been early voting since the 2005 state election (that I can recall at least), one thing I have noticed is the increasing presence of HTVers at prepoll places. It used to be that you never saw HTVers at prepoll places, but I drove past the early vote place in town today and was alarmed at the number of parties present with their HTV volunteers on only the second day of prepolling being open here. I’m sure it is directly correlated with the increasing numbers of prepoll voters.
kayjay:
Interesting. Good night.
“Okay, so I have just read the wiki about the Night King,
https://gameofthrones.fandom.com/wiki/Night_King
whom my Millennial son informs me is the personage in the meme and it seems as though his personality is to bring death. So, it seems apposite that he brings death to the MSM who are down on Labor.
I think I have it right. ”
You clearly didn’t watch the end of that episode. …
and for my completely uneducated thoughts on the record number of prepollers i think it has more to do with getting it over and done with and leaving the Saturday for more important things like the footy.
Re Mumble’s article in relation to Longman being in the mix, the Libs have been absent here which indicates they don’t feel they have any chance. Not even any letterbox drops. No waving folks in blue tea shirts. No posters or banners.
Dear Georgina,
Please, give it a miss. Running on your dear father’s political legacy will not cut the mustard. The days of political dynasties, a thing of a bygone era. Go earn yourself an honest living; Dolly would be more proud of you if you did(?).
Re: the 3% swing to the Greens, at the expenses of Labor’s primary vote – bullshit!
Gabrielle Chan said on the Drum tonight.
At Deniliquin Saleyards they are talking about wanting a hung parliament
Fess
Absolutely – and when they started those prepoll places and there were just electoral commission people there, I think for some voters that was the attraction!
martini henry @ #855 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 5:54 pm
That’s always been my motivation for voting early; I’ve got better things to do than battle the crowds and the queues on polling day. Although in the 2004 federal election I did meet local member Stephen Smith standing in the queue to vote in his electorate.
Thx for that Mikehilliard.
guytaur says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 7:57 pm
Every electorate that’s possibly going to elect an Independent wants a hung parliament. Doesn’t mean there will be one.
guytaur says Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 7:57 pm
Answer 1: They have one now
Answer 2: Come back Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor, all is forgiven
Answer 3: Perhaps they shouldn’t have kept blindly voting for conservative parties for the last century.
JP
Yes. That’s a seachange for those areas.
You can’t scare those voters with a hung parliament horror theme.
Rocket Rocket @ #859 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 5:58 pm
I can definitely understand that! At the 2005 state election one prepoll place was just across the road in an office block from my work. It was just like walking into any office, just that it was set up like a polling booth. Last state election the local prepoll place was in a venue that had a very long verandah, and every party had their HTVers set up along that verandah, making it feel like you had to run the gauntlet just to get in to vote.
Confessions, strangely the last time i voted on the day was in 2010 and i bumped into my local member in the Victorian seat of Lalor.
guytaur says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 7:57 pm
At my Phan Thiet cafe this morning all the election talk was about wanting a big Labor win. 🙂
This young man deserves to be taught a lesson, and that lesson is: do not harm very vulnerable young men, such as my nephew. He and others don’t need to repent for being themselves.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-union/folau-hearing-concludes-but-no-verdict-reached-20190507-p51kzw.html
martini henry:
What a treat. 🙂
Great interview between RDN and Leigh Sales tonight. It was respectful, insightful and directly answered.
The missing Melissa Price in the midst of such dire predictions of mass extinctions is just reprehensible.
This is instructive:
https://www.smh.com.au/healthcare/robert-chose-the-pill-free-route-he-ended-up-on-my-operating-table-20190507-p51kwd.html
Confessions, yep it was just a quick good luck and a smile and thankyou in return.
Fess
Our favourite voting experience was in Darwin at the NT election – our electorate only had one polling booth, so both major candidates were there talking to people in the line the entire day.
On the issue of a Like button on comments. The affect of this could be to increase group influence, with commenters either consciously or unconsciously writing to get the most like. This could lead to a kind of group-think, or for group norms to become stronger.
At the moment one has to actually write something to agree or disagree and generally add an explanation or argument. ‘Likes’ are too easy. This is supposed to be the thinking-person’s blog after all. (humour)
Mike Carlton
…and my gut feeling is that a big, big majority of the pre-poll votes have gone either Labor or Green.
Billy Hughes cops an egg during WW1.
https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1125630545382166528/FtB09lCx?format=jpg&name=600×314
On the subject of Dragons, what is this ‘mythical’ stuff? I was very pleased to see that we got good parts in Game of Thrones. I am getting a little middle-aged now, and my joints are a bit creaky, but back in the day, my fire burned very bright.
IIRC there was a like button back in the last days of Crikey when they imposed one of their wonderful updates on William and us.
To cataract op veterans…
Thanks to those who responded last night and this morning, especially BH who had his own procedure done in Forster hospital. My spesho’s name was “Jimmy”. Was yours, BH?
24 and a bit hours later I’ve noticed mostly lateral aberration, akin to slight motion blur, but only in the 0° horizontal direction. I note from the manufacturer’s web site that the curvature of the lens supplied is aspherical. This may have something to do with the “motion blur”. That, or there’s some residual retinal astigmatism still present. We’ll see.
Color is quite a bit bluer than the other eye, especially in highlights. The other eye also has a mild cataract, and these are yellow, or “warming” of light transmitted through them. So really, the new lens isn’t so much “blue” as avtually “natural” in color cast. To put it poetically, for the last 10 years or so I’ve been seeing the world through rose colored cataracts.
Pain is greatly reduced by now, which is a good thing compared to feeling like you’ve been clouted in the eye by the blunt end of a pool cue, then stabbed in the iris with coat hanger wire… which is how I went to sleep last night. So, all good on the “discomfort” front.
Follow-up appointment tomorrow morning with Jimmy the spesho at 8am. I’m expecting a room full of Glorious Mid-North Coast-ites, all “done” yesterday, with gory stories to swap around the waiting room.
I remain steady in my projections:
+~2 in NSW
+ ~2 in Vic
+ ~3 in Qld
And that’s enough.
“Re: the 3% swing to the Greens, at the expenses of Labor’s primary vote – bullshit!”…
Yep, of course it is… All suggests that the Greens will go slightly backwards in their primary vote at this election compared with 2016.
“At Deniliquin Saleyards they are talking about wanting a hung parliament”… But their wish will not be granted. It’s a solid Shorten ALP Government but without full control of the Senate.
BB
Best of luck with that. Sounds like it’s going well so far and must be a huge relief from pain.
“Perhaps they shouldn’t have kept blindly voting for conservative parties for the last century”…. Yep… But it’s never too late to learn from past mistakes… 🙂
BB
Best wishes – glad to hear your eyesight has been blueyfied! I wonder what the ‘light blue’ not-a-liberal signs of Tim Wilson would look like?
Puffy
magic.
Guytaur @7:17 – I agree about preferential voting. I’m a big fan. Interesting that the US has been looking at it – with Maine introducing it for the first time. It would fix a lot of the US electoral issues if it was used more widely. It also adds a whole new dimension of interest to electoral politics with the whole deal of preference negotiations. The era of the Group Voting Ticket system and the rise of preference whisperers was the low point of preferential voting though.
Bushfire:
All the best with recovery and ongoing management.
Re: Lens surgery
Had mine done to correct vision. Left eye close focus, right eye distance.
The thing is I get different colour from each as they were different brands.
Left eye is like a blue white, the right a warm white. Can only tell when covering one eye, as dominant right eye colour only with both eyes open.
Bushfire Bill – glad to hear it all went well.
We dont need a like button to figure out I am the most liked poster on here.
Everybody knows.
BB
My op did not work out well in some respects which happens in a small number of ops.
Such is life.
Still, the result is much better than the alternative: going blind over time.
In relation to immediate post-op ‘aberrations’ in my case the brain soon sorted them out.
I believe that this is not an uncommon experience.
I still have a cataract in one eye.
When assessing my photographic images I use one eye for ‘true’ colour – the eye that had the op.
I suspect that your ‘bluish’ cast is most probably just what we get with our eyes before cataracts.
I use the other eye, which still has the yellow cataract cast, for checking sharpness of detail.
I wish you all the best with the recovery and with the joy of seeing things a lot better.
“It’s a solid Shorten ALP Government but without full control of the Senate.”
I think you might be right, damn that half-senate, oh for a DD, Labor would be in control of both houses. 😉
All the best BB. Hope tomorrow goes well.
I cast a pre poll vote yesterday afternoon in the seat of Berowra – very quiet, I was the only person in the building, along with the AEC staff who were very friendly and efficient.
One Liberal, one Labor and one Green person were handing out HTVs.
Bill Shorten was really good on Q&A last night, despite Tony Jones being a rude pig and interrupting far too much(just as well Jones is leaving the hosting gig for that program).
A good Drum program tonight too coming from Geelong/seat of Corangamite, George Megalogenis was most interesting.
BW – how is the tinnitus?
Good luck and good health to BB.
Max
Yes I hope the US adopts preferential voting across the board.
It would change US politics dramatically.
Even better if they also went for compulsory voting too. 🙂
I always imagined BB with an eye patch.
“All suggests that the Greens will go slightly backwards in their primary vote at this election compared with 2016.”
The latest Newspoll suggests no change in Greens vote, once undecideds are reallocated, and the other three most recent polls suggest a rise in in the Greens primary.
I’m not making any projections based on this, but to say, on a psephological blog, that polling data is to be disregarded…
SK
Camping out in the bush under the stars recently reminded me that it is a constant.
White noise in the suburb often ‘covers’ it.
If it keeps me awake I will play a talking book or some music.
For the past year or so it has started to vary in volume, texture, pitch and tempo – so that it is now quite unpredictable.
It ain’t Faure.
When it intrudes I work hard at the old political trick of deflecting the brain.
Talking with others who have it, I realize that I am extremely fortunate to have such a minor case of it.
I notice that tinnitus is gradually being added to the list of issues that veterans want addressed in terms of post demob support.
All those bangs and ringing ears!
My mother had a corneal graft. As a result, she used peripheral vision to see. We got used to her looking somewhere to our left when talking to us!
Alas, after fifty years, the corneal graft is being rejected, which means she has blisters forming between it and the ‘true’ eye. Incredible pain but she’s also now got an infection, which will delay surgery.