Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Two new polls report Labor maintaining a lead on two-party preferred, but with minor parties making gains across the board from the majors.

The Guardian reports Essential Research, which has moved from fortnightly to weekly for the business end of the campaign, has produced the first national poll of the campaign to record movement in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. However, the shift from 51-49 to 52-48 comes despite a three-point drop in the Labor primary vote, amid a substantial increase in support for minor parties – notably the Greens, who pick up Labor’s slack by lifting from 9% to 12%. Similarly, a one point drop in the Coalition vote to 38% is mirrored by a one point gain for One Nation, now on 7%. Essential is not reporting separate figures for the United Australia Party.

It appears Essential is producing weekly results on preferred prime minister and party expected to win, but not approval and disapproval ratings. On the former question, Scott Morrison’s lead is out from 40-31 to 42-31; on the latter, Labor is down from 59% to 54%. The Guardian’s report does not provide the result for the Coalition, which was 41% last week. That will have to wait until the publication of the full report later today – as will more of the detail behind the finding that 46% prefer Labor’s policies and 36% prefer the Coalition’s. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1079. UPDATE: Full report here.

We also have the now seemingly regular weekly result for Roy Morgan (which I have deemed has come to the party too late for inclusion in BludgerTrack, or as a headline attraction on blog posts). After a lengthy period of movement to the Coalition, this records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. However, here too there is movement to the minor parties on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one to 38.5%, Labor down two to 34%, the Greens up 1.5% to 11%, One Nation up 1.5% to 4% and the United Australia Party up two to 3.5%. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 826.

Also out today is a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Mayo, published in The Advertiser. This suggests little has changed since Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance easily retained the seat from Liberal candidate Georgina Downer in the Super Saturday by-election last July. The poll credits Sharkie with a primary vote lead over Downer (who is running again) of 43% to 38%, with Labor and the Greens on 7% each and the United Australia Party on 3%. Her two-party lead is 57-43, compared with 57.5-42.5 at the by-election. The poll credits Sharkie with a 60% approval rating, with only 18% disapproving. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 557.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,051 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Our great LNP will win the May 18 election by 12 seats majority and Morrison will be PM for three years

    Shorten will have to resign as he would have lost two years and Albo will take over,,,,

  2. Moving on to the senate, i think it is a possibility that a mandate will be honored by the LNP for some legislation.
    Mostly because they are in for a world of hurt, many of the cabinet and senior MP will be gone, they wont have a leader going forward, having burnt and shamed many possibles over the last six years.
    They desperately need to take the focus off themselves while they go through a rebuilding phase, they need to be a small target to give any newbie leader a chance to learn on the job.
    Another ‘Doctor No’ wont do take them anywhere.
    Also consider the Libs could be in for a bad senate result due to them being on the nose outside the capitals, they wont feel it as much in the lower house, but a few percentage in the upper house can mean one less senator.

  5. All I want is for Wayne to hang around on election night to receive the thoroughly deserved ritual humiliation.

  7. bug1 the Liberals will never support the most critical changes like negative gearing.

    It really boils down to the cross bench.

  9. that’s good news Guytaur. I like SHY, she could be the next leader but it’s important not to get sucked into leader worship like the 2 major party stooges get caught up in.

  13. Uh oh Nath is a Hanson-Young fan. Is there any hope?

    If the Greens need a leader it’s really McKim or bust to me. Perhaps Whish-Wilson. I personally rate Siewert highly. The rest are duds.

  20. IDK, if I was designing Labor memes I’d personally use that scene of Thanos inside the soul stone at the end of Infinity War.

  22. Interestingly when asked a question about early voting today, Bill Shorten made a point of putting the surge in early voting down to the mood for change.

  23. I think there is actually quite a strong possibility of a high Greens vote in this election – especially from young voters. I also think that preferences of Greens voters may flow more strongly to Labor than previously for much the same reasons.

    For the youngest voters who have the most at stake in relation to climate change, I think it would seem very attractive to go for what appears on the surface to be the most ambitious climate policy. We might be seeing a muted version of what has happened in (say) Germany where a large vote has moved from the traditional Social Democrats to the Greens.

    Where we have been worrying how Labor might be able to work with right wing or centrist parties in the Senate, the actual challenge may well be working with the Greens in a way that does not erode the traditional Labor vote. I think Shorten would be up to that but it will need at least a modicum of restraint from the leaders of the Greens party which we haven’t seen very much to date.

  24. ALP L+NP Oth. ALP L+NP
    13 December 1919 election
    42.5% 54.3% 3.2% 45.9% 54.1%
    16 December 1922 election
    42.3% 47.8% 9 .9% 48.8% 51.2%
    14 November 1925 election
    45.0% 53.2% 1.8% 46.2% 53.8%
    17 November 1928 election
    44.6% 49.6% 5.8% 48.4% 51.6%
    12 October 1929 election
    48.8% 44.2% 7.0% 56.7% 43.3%
    19 December 1931 election
    27.1% 48.4% 24.5% 41.5% 58.5%
    15 September 1934 election
    26.8% 45.6% 27.6% 46.5% 53.5%
    23 October 1937 election
    43.2% 49.3% 7.5% 49.4% 50.6%
    21 September 1940 election
    40.2% 43.9% 15.9% 50.3% 49.7%
    21 August 1943 election
    49.9% 23.0% 27.1% 58.2% 41.8%
    28 September 1946 election
    49.7% 39.3% 11.0% 54.1% 45.9%
    10 December 1949 election
    46.0% 50.3% 3.7% 49.0% 51.0%
    28 April 1951 election
    47.6% 50.3% 2.1% 49.3% 50.7%
    29 May 1954 election
    50.0% 46.8% 3.2% 50.7% 49.3%
    10 December 1955 election
    44.6% 47.6% 7.8% 45.8% 54.2%
    22 November 1958 election
    42.8% 46.6% 10.6% 45.9% 54.1%
    9 December 1961 election
    47.9% 42.1% 10.0% 50.5% 49.5%
    30 November 1963 election
    45.5% 46.0% 8.5% 47.4% 52.6%
    26 November 1966 election
    40.0% 50.0% 10.0% 43.1% 56.9%
    25 October 1969 election
    47.0% 43.3% 9.7% 50.2% 49.8%
    2 December 1972 election
    49.6% 41.5% 8.9% 52.7% 47.3%
    18 May 1974 election
    49.3% 44.9% 5.8% 51.7% 48.3%
    13 December 1975 election
    42.8% 53.1% 4.1% 44.3% 55.7%
    10 December 1977 election
    39.7% 48.1% 12.2% 45.4% 54.6%
    18 October 1980 election
    45.2% 46.3% 8.5% 49.6% 50.4%
    5 March 1983 election
    49.5% 43.6% 6.9% 53.2% 46.8%
    1 December 1984 election
    47.6% 45.0% 7.4% 51.8% 48.2%
    11 July 1987 election
    45.8% 46.1% 8.1% 50.8% 49.2%
    24 March 1990 election
    39.4% 43.5% 17.1% 49.9% 50.1%
    13 March 1993 election
    44.9% 44.3% 10.7% 51.4% 48.6%
    2 March 1996 election
    38.7% 47.3% 14.0% 46.4% 53.6%
    3 October 1998 election
    40.1% 39.5% 20.4% 51.0% 49.0%
    10 November 2001 election
    37.8% 43.0% 19.2% 49.0% 51.0%
    9 October 2004 election
    37.6% 46.7% 15.7% 47.3% 52.7%
    24 November 2007 election
    43.4% 42.1% 14.5% 52.7% 47.3%
    21 August 2010 election
    38.0% 43.3% 18.7% 50.1% 49.9%
    7 September 2013 election
    33.4% 45.6% 21.0% 46.5% 53.5%
    2 July 2016 election
    34.7% 42.1% 23.3% 49.6% 50.4%

    —————–
    The opinion polls majority overstate the libs/nats 2pp compared to the actual federal elections

    It was very strange in 2 federal elections the libs/nats primary vote was higher than the libs/nats 2pp

  25. Cud Chewer:
    Yea probably not, but i expect there will stil lbe an ‘omnibus bill’ with a lot of stuff they will hold their nose and tolerate.
    If the balance of power is in the center then they should be reachable with some horsetrading, there is no point them being there otherwise.
    Labor could threaten a DD, which could be effective against the LNP, they will be in no shape to fight another election, and im getting the sense that the electorate is starting to appreciate Shortens determination and vision.
    A DD isnt a threat to the cross bench though, and would have to handled very carefully, much better to work with them, which is something Labor has managed in the past.

  27. bug1 @ #752 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 6:18 pm

    Moving on to the senate, i think it is a possibility that a mandate will be honored by the LNP for some legislation.
    Mostly because they are in for a world of hurt, many of the cabinet and senior MP will be gone, they wont have a leader going forward, having burnt and shamed many possibles over the last six years.
    They desperately need to take the focus off themselves while they go through a rebuilding phase, they need to be a small target to give any newbie leader a chance to learn on the job.
    Another ‘Doctor No’ wont do take them anywhere.
    Also consider the Libs could be in for a bad senate result due to them being on the nose outside the capitals, they wont feel it as much in the lower house, but a few percentage in the upper house can mean one less senator.

    We also shouldn’t discount the possibility that some Liberal or National senators may disagree so much with the direction their party is going that they become independents. I really think we are going to see a major fracturing on the right.

  28. C@t

    I have to concur with the other posters who’ve stated that that probably isn’t a good meme.

    Perhaps something from The Lord Of The Rings where the forces of good and evil are clearly delineated, but not Game Of Thrones where that same line is often either blurred, or non-existent.

  29. Wayne says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 6:16 pm

    Our great LNP will win the May 18 election by 12 seats majority and Morrison will be PM for three years

    Shorten will have to resign as he would have lost two years and Albo will take over…

    I know it can sometimes easy to lose time, but how prey tell do you lose “2 years”? 😆

  30. C@t if you can get it into a file on your pc then you can upload it onto imgur.com
    from there you just click through until you have an image and the url that you see has a “.jpg” at the end.

  34. AJM

    Its inevitable.

    Fascists attempting to become part of the National Party. They failed but there is a reason they targeted the Nats.

    Christian Evangelicals taking over the Liberal Party. With their US style of conservative “Christian”

    Its turning the LNP into another fringe party that only appeals to the right.
    It’s going to be an interesting three years for the right

  36. ”
    Red13 says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 5:05 pm
    GG / BB
    I’m over the bedwetters, completely. This normally happens here in federal elections and it always leaves me disgusted with these nervous nellies. All they do is entertain the Liberals here, giving them a good laugh.
    Go read this mornings Paul Bongiorno article, it is a beauty, and get yourselves each a can of concrete.
    My friends in Canberra confirm Bongiorno’s conclusions.
    Shorten is walking the walk and Morrison and the Libs are hitting the panic button.
    Why is that I wonder???
    Think about it for a minute.
    ”
    Red13
    Before this election was called, didn’t you post that you heard from your friends that there was no talk about elections in May? But we are having elections in May. Shorten may be walking the walk from the his performance in the last week & he was very good with the way he explained things but that is not reflected in polls & we are having pre-polls, which crossed 1 million voters. If you heard from your friends that “Morrison and the Libs are hitting the panic button” there is little sign of it & it is hard to believe your friends after what they fed you about election date.

  38. ”
    Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 5:08 pm
    Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #657 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 5:05 pm

    Rex Douglas says

    …

    I acknowledge that partisans struggle to hear the message of another party.

    How do you explain yourself?

    You profess to have no partisan Party leanings and yet you hear nothing!

    Non-partisans hear the messages of all parties and candidates …and thus make clear-eyed judgements
    ”
    No you don’t. You judgementd always preferred LNP.

  41. ”
    Paddy O says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 5:07 pm
    Venn I made a layered comment a few pages back about recent polling (LNP steady base vote, combined steady ALP and Greens base vote, and, the rest with preference flow assumptions). You seemed to have picked some arbitrary numbers to make you point! We’re not arguing on the same level and I object to your “Wake up Jeff” comment which was unnecessarily condescending!
    ”
    Sorry if I hurt your feelings. The one thing I am is not condescending. If I was condescending, I would have LNP supporter. 🙂

  42. ajm says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 6:32 pm

    I think there is actually quite a strong possibility of a high Greens vote in this election – especially from young voters.
    …

    Despite there being little to no evidence in the major opinion polls to suggest this. 🙂

  43. Our great LNP will win the May 18 election by 12 seats majority and Morrison will be PM for three years

    Shorten will have to resign as he would have lost two years and Albo will take over and I will be right

  45. Scott

    I think in the past there were often a few ‘uncontested’ seats. There were often only two parties in the running and sometimes one wouldn’t even bother running a candidate. In which case the one candidate was declared elected. Of course this messes up TPP, as does the fact that most of those old TPPs are just estimates as full counts weren’t generally done if someone polled more than 50% primary in an electorate.

    That said – the 1954 election really sticks in my throat even though I wasn’t born! Labor essentially got just over 50% of the primary votes and lost. The Petrov Affair had happened one month before and Menzies obviously hammered the whole anti-communist thing, but I feel that if Labor had won this election instead of losing 57 seats to 64 that maybe the Split would not have happened.

  46. Why did European and Chinese both make up the same mythical creature called dragons. Were there dragons in past ages? These are the questions that keep me up at night.

  48. ”
    frednk says:
    Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 5:16 pm
    What surprised me was I was the only one upbeat; and that was because I do follow the polls.
    ”
    I am also following the polls & the PV of ALP of 4 different polling companies is between 33-36 and I have never seen any major party winning an election from that position. Either all these opinion polls are manipulated (which is possible) or ALP is in trouble. It will be first time if ALP wins with a PV less than 36.

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