The Guardian reports Essential Research, which has moved from fortnightly to weekly for the business end of the campaign, has produced the first national poll of the campaign to record movement in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. However, the shift from 51-49 to 52-48 comes despite a three-point drop in the Labor primary vote, amid a substantial increase in support for minor parties – notably the Greens, who pick up Labor’s slack by lifting from 9% to 12%. Similarly, a one point drop in the Coalition vote to 38% is mirrored by a one point gain for One Nation, now on 7%. Essential is not reporting separate figures for the United Australia Party.
It appears Essential is producing weekly results on preferred prime minister and party expected to win, but not approval and disapproval ratings. On the former question, Scott Morrison’s lead is out from 40-31 to 42-31; on the latter, Labor is down from 59% to 54%. The Guardian’s report does not provide the result for the Coalition, which was 41% last week. That will have to wait until the publication of the full report later today – as will more of the detail behind the finding that 46% prefer Labor’s policies and 36% prefer the Coalition’s. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1079. UPDATE: Full report here.
We also have the now seemingly regular weekly result for Roy Morgan (which I have deemed has come to the party too late for inclusion in BludgerTrack, or as a headline attraction on blog posts). After a lengthy period of movement to the Coalition, this records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. However, here too there is movement to the minor parties on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one to 38.5%, Labor down two to 34%, the Greens up 1.5% to 11%, One Nation up 1.5% to 4% and the United Australia Party up two to 3.5%. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 826.
Also out today is a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Mayo, published in The Advertiser. This suggests little has changed since Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance easily retained the seat from Liberal candidate Georgina Downer in the Super Saturday by-election last July. The poll credits Sharkie with a primary vote lead over Downer (who is running again) of 43% to 38%, with Labor and the Greens on 7% each and the United Australia Party on 3%. Her two-party lead is 57-43, compared with 57.5-42.5 at the by-election. The poll credits Sharkie with a 60% approval rating, with only 18% disapproving. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 557.
“.,… egg plants.”
Awful things….they should be banned by UN treaty so to make that a war crime….:(
A just question from Dr Steven Hail, a macroeconomist from the University of Adelaide:
https://www.facebook.com/green.modernmoneytheoryandpractice/
With all of the bludgers predicting poll results, I thought that I would put a prediction of my own in. I expect a very damaging tweet or two from a certain ex PM, who I believe is currently in NY. I think that those tweets will commence on about Monday and end on Wednesday/Thursday…
I want to move seats now
https://www.facebook.com/alexanderedwarddyson/videos/vb.217532408581742/474610580025120/?type=2&theater
Oh come on guys.
It was a sample of about 1200. Error about 2%.
Labor is still ahead as have been fro about 3 years.
Good debates.
Good Q and A.
GG / BB
I’m over the bedwetters, completely. This normally happens here in federal elections and it always leaves me disgusted with these nervous nellies. All they do is entertain the Liberals here, giving them a good laugh.
Go read this mornings Paul Bongiorno article, it is a beauty, and get yourselves each a can of concrete.
My friends in Canberra confirm Bongiorno’s conclusions.
Shorten is walking the walk and Morrison and the Libs are hitting the panic button.
Why is that I wonder???
Think about it for a minute.
Rex Douglas says
How do you explain yourself?
You profess to have no partisan Party leanings and yet you hear nothing!
After watching the Ch10 news coverage of today’s egg protest I don’t think it will do Morrison’s image any harm. Helping that lady to her feet was a good image.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #649 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 4:59 pm
The folk you speak of turned their back on the selfish operatives within Liberal and Labor who played power games at their expense.
Trust was eroded by those selfish politicians… and the remaining partisans wonder why their primary votes are dwindling.
There are a few around here today who are being quite illogical …… even stupid.
FFS the 2PP was 52-48. Bludger Track is similar. And amongst all the figures is a lowish primary vote.
So what.
Plenty of 2nd preferences came back ….. enough to bring Labor to 52%.
Since we don’t have OPV then all votes eventually come back to the Coalies or Labor, except in 6 or 8 seats where the non-major party first preferences will lead to an independent.
The Essential numbers should enthuse Laborites. So strange that it provokes defeatism in some PBers.
Venn I made a layered comment a few pages back about recent polling (LNP steady base vote, combined steady ALP and Greens base vote, and, the rest with preference flow assumptions). You seemed to have picked some arbitrary numbers to make you point! We’re not arguing on the same level and I object to your “Wake up Jeff” comment which was unnecessarily condescending!
Thanks, Briefly.
If the ALP abandoned the surplus fetishism and spent time explaining that federal government deficits are non-government sector surpluses, they would open up their policy options immensely and strengthen their political position.
They are likely to win this election but they will suffer a lot of political pain over their fiscal surplus promise. That is guaranteed. Their surplus promise will cause them to do less spending than is needed to satisfy the household sector’s desires to work, save, and pay down debt. It will cause them to do less spending than is necessary to mobilize all available productive resources to provide the infrastructure and services that we are capable of having. It will cause them intense political embarrassment when the surplus doesn’t happen.
A fiscal surplus won’t happen unless 1. the external sector suddenly decides to become a net spender of Australian dollars instead of a net saver of Australian dollars; or 2. households decide to take on more debt. Both of those scenarios are highly unlikely.
We haven’t had a current account surplus since 1973. The rest of the world likes to net save Australian dollars.
This isn’t the late 1990s and early 2000s when households were willing to take on a lot of debt. That is the condition that enabled the Howard Government to run fiscal surpluses.
There won’t be a repeat of that now because households are already highly leveraged – gross household debt is at a record high of 120 percent of GDP. Wages are stagnating and jobs are precarious. In those conditions, the household sector won’t cooperate with the government’s strategy of trying to manipulate them into taking on more debt so that the government can boast (foolishly) about a meaningless fiscal surplus. What will happen is that the government will aim for a surplus but end up with a deficit because households cut back their spending – causing incomes, employment, and tax receipts to fall, and causing welfare spending to rise.
We need the federal government to make discretionary decisions to increase the fiscal deficit by investing in services and infrastructure that advance the wellbeing of our people and ecosystems.
The exact size of the deficit should be set at the margin by a new automatic stabilizer: a federally funded Job Guarantee program that makes an unconditional offer of a fair minimum wage job to anybody who wants one.
Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #657 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 5:05 pm
Non-partisans hear the messages of all parties and candidates …and thus make clear-eyed judgements
Psyclaw @ #660 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 5:07 pm
C’mon we all know the Labor right partisans can’t handle being propped up by the Greens.
Yes while the Coalition PV stagnates Labor are safe. Time to panic would be if Labor votes start shifting to the Coalition. Not going to happen.
Darn@4:45pm and j341983@4:44pm
I was only reflecting on what ar@3:58pm posted because there is considerable shift in betting odds towards LNP.
Rex – I’m an ALP member and I don’t give a fuck who gets us to the win.
I wonder how much of the “other” relates to the various independent causes in a number of conservative seats around the country?
From Labor’s perspective, this could see a significant number of Labor voters tactically backing an independent candidate and thus suppressing the PV in seats that do not matter. There are a number of these seats and history suggests Labor and swing voters will switch to centrist candidates en masse with these kind of candidates.
On the other hand, the Green vote may not flow to Labor as much as previously given they are shifting their focus to blue seats and there will surely be a suite of small l liberals who can’t countenance voting Labor. These votes will also largely not be in the red blue seats that matter.
sustainable future says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 5:04 pm
You currently live in Wannon I presume! 🙂
“I was only reflecting on what ar@3:58pm posted because there is considerable shift in betting odds towards LNP.”
Looks like it is the same as it was this morning on Betfair …..1.27 to 4.6
BTW I see both Cash and Birmingham are talking today to the media about governing from the Senate. This story started yesterday and really began to get traction today.
A government considering itself in the electoral box seat would not be talking like this, would they?
Also hearing from my good friends in Canberra, there is behind the scenes talk about the Liberal leadership, they are already talking about who will take over from Morrison.
Yeah, winners talk there, eh?
I’m seeking more information about that one, there is a subset in the Libs who hate Morrison. No surprise there.
They are not acting like winners.
J341983 @ #667 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 5:11 pm
Fine.
Given all these polls, I think it’s reasonable to assume that, despite a poor selling job from Bowen and Shortens unpopularity, Labor will be helped over the line by the Greens Party.
Ven @ #664 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 5:10 pm
More than half of it has come back. Coalition back out to $4.60.
The good thing about Betfair is that it’s more reactive than anyone else.
The bad thing about Betfair is that it’s more reactive than anyone else.
Davidwh @ #665 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 5:10 pm
That’s the logical view I think.
Red13 says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 5:05 pm
GG / BB
I’m over the bedwetters,
…
I was more involved with the Andrews campaign. What surprised me was I was the only one upbeat; and that was because I do follow the polls. When I said “you have won it” stop stressing out; the response from all levels was pretty much as we see here.
We won the electorate even tough the member had retired. And the result overall, 4% better than the polls.
The problem is the campaigns are now very focused and as you get to the end you only see swinging voters. If gives you very distorted view of it all.
My own view; Shorten has nailed it; the undecideds are going to fall his way.
By the by; QandA was highest rating show last night.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 5:08 pm
If this is true, why are you so different?
I’m a logical Lib Rex. 🙂
“Interesting the guy from Essential that there are 10% who still cannot say which party they’ll vote for.”
This is why there should be an ‘undecided’ box on the ballot. When I have handed out HTVs I have been dismayed by the number of people who admit they still haven’t decided as they are walking into the booth or come and tell you ‘they changed their mind’ once they got in there. Or worse still are confused that they couldn’t vote for the leader of the party when they are not in their electorate. This 10% can decide elections! I theorise that there is a ‘I want to vote for the winner’ effect here – where people will decide on the day who they think will win and vote for them so they get bragging rights. Perhaps a Vote Compass test should be available ay booths to help people decide.
Anyone who wants a break from eggs and polls – this is a long but interesting read about cattle slaughter and beef distribution in America, highlighting how the labourers got screwed as massive oligolpolies took over in the late 19th Century.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/07/the-price-of-plenty-how-beef-changed-america
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 5:14 pm
See, this is a classic example.
You refuse to acknowledge that a Party has no control over where a voters preferences go.
“When I have handed out HTVs I have been dismayed by the number of people who admit they still haven’t decided ”
A certain percentage of those people will just be saying that to get you off their backs you know.
Not everyone feels obliged to tell the truth to HTV hander-outers
Red13
If Labor wins do you think the Liberals will stick with Morrison as an interim leader? I sort of think they will even if Dutton and/or Abbott keep their seats. I just can’t think of anyone who they would otherwise turn to in the immediate aftermath.
The logic might be fine, but the premises suck
Ah, the Non-Partisans; well known for their fanatical loyalty to their non-existent loyalty, their zealous beliefs in having no belief and their pious mission in life being to ensure that they have none.
Rocket Rocket @ #647 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 4:59 pm
cheers RR
My Cousin of 70, a retired teacher, watched Bill Shorten last night on Q and A. She said he was very good and she has decided to vote Labor. She thinks there’s lots that need to be done in this country.
That’s to cheer some up. 🙂
On lot of prepolling??
I think its as simple as lots of peoplemaking up their minds months ago (look at the polling consistency people) and simply getting it over and done with so they can disengage and forget about it.
This is not good news for the Libs given that the numbers look to be about 53/47 for quite a long time. 🙂
I never take HTV’s…..it’s feels like someone telling me how to vote. I make up my own mind and vote accordingly.
Darn @ #639 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 4:53 pm
And, if you do what I did which is put the 3% back on labor’s side then you end up with 52.5% which is where the TPV has been for a long time between 52 and 53%.
Whatever we are worrying about ALP campaign doesn’t seem to. Everyone is looking relaxed going through campaign milestones. Not in an ‘it’s in the bag we don’t have to worry about it’ sort of way. A number of political commentators are starting to notice it too.
I am skeptical about setting up a supposedly “independent” body to determine the level of the minimum wage, the level of the pension, the level of the sickness benefit and so on. For forty years governments around the world have entrusted these kinds of decisions to technocrats and experts in an effort to depoliticize them. I consider that effort misguided because the question of how to distribute wealth and income is unavoidably and intrinsically political. My impression is that these bodies tend to reflect the ideological biases of their times. In a market liberal / neoliberal era, these bodies are therefore biased against the poor. Therefore it would be better for the Parliament to make these decisions openly. Politicians need to own these decisions and be held accountable for their impacts. In practice, independent bodies are used by politicians as a way of deflecting criticism of bad decisions. It is of course necessary for experts and technocrats to provide advice, but the final decisions should rest with elected representatives.
I don’t buy the argument that if politicians directly determined the minimum wage and the pension and so on, they would set the levels too high and cause accelerating inflation. Any government that did that would be thrown out. That is the appropriate mechanism for holding politicians accountable for their mistakes.
When the Fair Work Commission decides to lift the minimum wage by a miserly amount year after year, or to cut penalty rates for retail and hospitality workers, what recourse do voters have? The voters don’t elect the members of the FWC. That body – and the similar bodies that preceded it – were stacked with people who are biased against a fair distribution of national income between wages and profits. The wages share of national income was 58 percent in the mid 1970s. It is 47 perceent today. “Depoliticizing” those decisions was a mistake that we need to correct.
I take HTVs from everybody who offers me one, to be polite. Then i give them all back.
Rocket Rocket @ #681 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 5:27 pm
doG will probably turn him into a pillar of iodised salt then smote him.
Our great LNP will win the May 18 election by 12 seats majority and Morrison will be PM for three years
Shorten will have to resign as he would have lost two years and Albo will take over…
Rex
Yes, you are correct. Some here have a Greens allergy which at times seems to have mind altering consequences, inhibiting proper functioning of the brain.
Any vote that ends up in the Labor 2PP numbers is an excellent vote IMHO .
Ha ha – HTV’s i used to vote at a small church polling booth in Moonah prior to moving to a different electorate. There wouls always be a good fight to watch between the opposing HTV distributors!
On a more serious and important note, i do hope the democracy sausage sellers will be following correct WH&S- Bunnings “how to put the onion in the bread first” protocol….. would not want to see any nasty slips now 🙂
Psyclaw @ #660 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 5:07 pm
Shorter Psychlaw is: “The executions will continue till morale improves!”
Heard a lot more ALP ads on FM radio. One also from Conservation Foundation, giving a rating of 4% to Libs, calling them poor on climate, ALP better at %51 calling them moderate and Greens getting %99 for the environment.
Also had Getup! ad with David Attenborough impersonator saying Don’t give your vote to Liberals if you care about the planet.
Seen no youtube ads from ALP. In state election it was in every video. They are either not using it or their targeting doesn’t reach me.
How would the coalition govern should they manage to win, knowing that going forward they can spend an entire term trailing in polls, without ever actually facing punishment for the same things that cost Labor government in 2013?