The Guardian reports Essential Research, which has moved from fortnightly to weekly for the business end of the campaign, has produced the first national poll of the campaign to record movement in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred. However, the shift from 51-49 to 52-48 comes despite a three-point drop in the Labor primary vote, amid a substantial increase in support for minor parties – notably the Greens, who pick up Labor’s slack by lifting from 9% to 12%. Similarly, a one point drop in the Coalition vote to 38% is mirrored by a one point gain for One Nation, now on 7%. Essential is not reporting separate figures for the United Australia Party.
It appears Essential is producing weekly results on preferred prime minister and party expected to win, but not approval and disapproval ratings. On the former question, Scott Morrison’s lead is out from 40-31 to 42-31; on the latter, Labor is down from 59% to 54%. The Guardian’s report does not provide the result for the Coalition, which was 41% last week. That will have to wait until the publication of the full report later today – as will more of the detail behind the finding that 46% prefer Labor’s policies and 36% prefer the Coalition’s. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1079. UPDATE: Full report here.
We also have the now seemingly regular weekly result for Roy Morgan (which I have deemed has come to the party too late for inclusion in BludgerTrack, or as a headline attraction on blog posts). After a lengthy period of movement to the Coalition, this records Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. However, here too there is movement to the minor parties on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one to 38.5%, Labor down two to 34%, the Greens up 1.5% to 11%, One Nation up 1.5% to 4% and the United Australia Party up two to 3.5%. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 826.
Also out today is a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Mayo, published in The Advertiser. This suggests little has changed since Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance easily retained the seat from Liberal candidate Georgina Downer in the Super Saturday by-election last July. The poll credits Sharkie with a primary vote lead over Downer (who is running again) of 43% to 38%, with Labor and the Greens on 7% each and the United Australia Party on 3%. Her two-party lead is 57-43, compared with 57.5-42.5 at the by-election. The poll credits Sharkie with a 60% approval rating, with only 18% disapproving. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 557.
Ven – another possibility among many is that the pollsters are herding. The uniformity of the tpp is suspicious in itself
A_E if Labor was losing PVs to the Libs I’d be much more concerned, there’s no suggestion that they are. Especially since minors consistently underperform polling.
If you want to see a gov struggling just see Mathias the spinner is tweeting.
Oh and Clive Palmer looses another court case.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-07/clive-palmer-high-court-result/11086680
The old lady says she was knocked over by a cameraperson, but 3AW prefers otherwise.
I think it is certainly the case that trust in ‘major parties’ is shredding.
It is basically inevitable with all the forces tearing away at it – the government itself through its relentless negative campaigning and general hopelessness, Palmer with his blatantly fabricated campaign, the media with their continued horse-race calling of the election and existentially driven need to make a finely balanced contest where nothing really matters except the contest itself.
Anyone calling “same/same”.
Labor’s RGR and (at least in NSW) state history don’t help.
If Labor can win I think they can turn that major major trust issue around. If Labor lose … well, may dog have mercy on us all. We’ll be electing a reality TV billionaire or comedian to run the country in short order I would imagine.
“A_E if Labor was losing PVs to the Libs I’d be much more concerned, there’s no suggestion that they are. Especially since minors consistently underperform polling.”
If the only progressive party of government can only secure 1/3 of the popular vote on the back of an impressive array of progressive policies then there is every reason to be concerned. Especially when said party has actually dropped at least 3% of the popular vote since rolling out said policies. …
Progressive parties of government have to look past the mere scrapping into government: they need to be in viable shape to actually govern. Having to meld together both CA and the Greens in the senate is likely to prove a next to impossible task as it is. Having a suit of policies effectively rejected just makes things worse.
😆 😆 😆
Good on you Rex.
Nice to see you don’t want to have an impact on the election.
Probably safer for everyone that way. 🙂
Andrew_Earlwood @ #599 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 4:09 pm
Don’t let me talk you out of a nervous breakdown. however, I’m not in any way phased by movements in the polls or the negative media coverage. Shorten is cool and calm and confident and he’s walking the walk of a winner. Morrison is in a seat with a 20% margin while Bill is bolstering Labor in marginal Liberal seats.
Briefly’s observation that people are not taking HTVs is similar to what happened in Victoria last November. At first I thought this was a bad development. But, after a while it became apparent that voters were saying they knew who they were voting for and were extremely aggressive towards the Libs. One tool we used was to count the number of people only taking one HTV and use that to estimate the two party vote. It was fairly accurate in the end.
Our system encourages fracturing. Parties of government are still parties of government, but they’re going to need broader electoral coalitions to do it unless things change.
https://amp.news.com.au/technology/online/nbn/internet-providers-improving-on-speed-but-the-nbn-remains-a-disappointment-for-many/news-story/713d1909b59748a57dd75ea2b87882d1
We had year after year of Briefly assuring us, almost bragging about the techniques of on-the-ground Labor campaigning which were designed to not only sway minds, but keep them swayed towards The Beloved Party. For this he won no small measure of respect from some here who hung onto his words as those of The Guru.
Now, in the space of a fortnight, he’s ditched it all and leads the PB Pack of doomsayers, Hanrahans and Nervous Nellie who are informing us that all the previous talk of sweet victories, along with triumphant battles of the heart and mind were tosh, because Morrison got up and started rabbiting on like the Energizer Bunny about tax, reducing everything to a bewildering jumble of numbers and slogans blasted from the parapets of a Wall Of Sound, Jericho-style. That, and he had the media on his side, barracking.
Forgive me for being confused, but didn’t we know all this about ScoMo’s style and the media bias before?
Haven’t been around much today. Has anyone here done any calculations with those Essential primaries to see if the 52-48 2pp rings true? To me, it looks a little bit too generous, but then I’m no expert. Others are much better at it than I am.
Good to see Rex is throwing his vote away.
I get the essential primaries come in between 51.5-52% ALP depending…
Prepoll votes cast in the 2019 federal election was just over 255,000 on Monday. Total prepoll is now 915,000 since early voting commenced a week ago.
Thought Tania did well with Karvelas this arvo. Comments re the egging were on point.
“Our system encourages fracturing. Parties of government are still parties of government, but they’re going to need broader electoral coalitions to do it unless things change.”
The Greens on Labor’s left tell regional workers in agriculture, mining and allied industries to get fucked: that’s a swag of potential labor seats down the toilet.
The Greens tell both Labor and CA in the middle to get fucked on Turnbull’s NEG (even with add ons) also to Labor to get fucked with any middle of the road compromise that would chance of building such a broader coalition.
Regional workers and lower middle-working class folk in the outer suburbs of our major cities (except Canberra) tell Labor to get fucked for even contemplating an accomodation with the Greens.
Feckless hopeless LNP slips through the middle while the ‘broader coalition’ failed to get its shit together. Sound familiar?
Cud Chewer @ #614 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 4:31 pm
I’m not sure how you see that… ?
My apologies if already posted.
Major parties hint at early voting review as ballots cast top 1 million
https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/major-parties-hint-at-early-voting-review-as-ballots-cast-top-1-million-20190507-p51krs.html
I’m not defending it, but there’s no point getting angry about it… it’s a reality we need to work with.
Ftr – I don’t buy Labor will get 34%, but the days of 40-45% pv are over for the time being.
The Egg Idiot is also being charged with possession of a prohibited drug.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #618 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 4:33 pm
Hysterical nonsense.
The Greens are the best friends of regional workers.
The Greens are the best friends of the Green energy industry workers.
What would a vegan activist use – Tofu instead of Eggs?
ar@3:58pm
I am flabbergasted with that betting in betfair towards LNP. 🙁
Are people really going to have a breakdown at every betting market shift?
Jesus wept – I’m not even pessimistic and this place is raising my blood pressure.
Betfair is meaningless. I just checked Ladbrokes. No change there. Labor are still red hot favourites.
Anyone want to hazard a guess at whether there will be any former Liberal PMs at Sunday’s launch?
Turnbull – zero chance surely – even if he was in Australia.
Abbott – maybe, but not a great positive for them in Victoria so would just be in ‘the crowd’ and not welcomed in as a glorious former leader. Will be ‘busy’ in Warringah.
Howard – the most likely, but a bit awks if subsequent PMs not there/welcomed etc.
Former Liberal leaders
Nelson – no chance (would politicise his current job even more than it has been already)
Hewson – no chance – persona non grata
Downer – unlikely – is he even in Australia supporting his family (who ‘made Australia” apparently?) in their bid to reclaim BK’s realm of Mayo?
Peacock – is he even around anymore – no chance
Did I miss anyone? It’s getting hard to keep up. Maybe one –
Potential leader
Dutton – yeah nah.
The whole purpose of “parties of government” is to create “broader electoral coalitions” to win government and implement the policy platform that reflects the aggregated interests and sentiments of the components of that “coalition”
“Fracturing” is essentially the process of some of those groups feeling either they are not having their interests adequately met or their sentiments adequately reflected in those platforms.
For whatever reason, this appears a global (at least “western”) phenomenon at the moment. I suspect it is probably a function of uncertainty and change but also a growing culture of entitlement that allows opportunists to narrow cast to certain sub groups, raising their expectations and convincing them they can opt out of those broader coalitions and get more.
The reality is they get far less particularly as electoral competition inevitably sees them spending an increasing majority of their energies campaigning against the major party that would naturally house those sentiments.
And so we get the sad loser Green acolytes gloating at disappointing polling numbers from Labor 11 days out from a huge fork-in-the-road election. How does one become so warped and still consider themselves progressive?
Paddy O says:
Tuesday, May 7, 2019 at 4:39 pm
Using tofu for any reason or purpose is highly offensive!
“Hysterical nonsense.
The Greens are the best friends of regional workers.
The Greens are the best friends of the Green energy industry workers.”
You really should have joined Pepe and Brown on their greensplaining tour of Queensland Rexy if you believed that. I’d have paid to see you explain THAT in the public bar in Clermont.
As far as I am concerned pre polling should be allowed as soon as all candidates are officially nominated and the ballot paper draw conducted.
All sides have had three years to put policies in place. If you want people to vote for you then get your policies out BEFORE the election.
For me the election is about the lived experience under the current govt of the day during their term and whether you want a continuation or change.
This election I’m voting for change.
I make it 51.9-48.1.
Interesting the guy from Essential that there are 10% who still cannot say which party they’ll vote for.
This is a sad indictment of our media’s lack of transmission of policy at this election.
Squishy avocado
Andrew_Earlwood @ #631 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 4:48 pm
I acknowledge that partisans struggle to hear the message of another party.
jenauthor @ #632 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 4:49 pm
Yeah, the smart 10%.
Step 1 – You and a bunch of friends tell the pollsters you’re undecided when you’re really not
Step 2 – Wager on the side you’re all going to vote for
Step 3 – Profit!
Essential primaries are ALP 34, Green 12, Coalition 38, One Nation 7 and others including Palmer 9.
Accepting these, I get ALP 2PP = 34 + 9.6 + 0 + 2.8 + 4.5 = 50.9 –> 51.
(Greens 80% -> ALP, One Nation 40%, other 50%).
If you split One Nation 50-50, you get ALP 2PP = 51.6, but I don’t think that’s realistic.
Transferring 3 from Green to Labor, which looks more realistic, increases ALP 2PP to 51.5.
With a sample size of 1079, margin of error is 3.0%.
So who knows…
jenauthor
They used to report “undecideds” years ago – now they pressure you on polling to make a decision, and if you are still undecided they just leave you out of calculations and reset the denominator.
Which of course means the uncertainty of their results is somewhat hidden. Leaving out 2% undecideds is one thing, but 10% undecideds is clearly enough to significantly alter the result at the ballot box when people mostly do cast formal votes.
Thanks very much William. Very reassuring.
Paddy O@4:05pm
Oh. I perfectly understand your English. Combined ALP/ Greens vote is about(35+10) 45% and combined RWNJ vote is 48% (38+7+3)(LNP+ON+PALMER) .
Are Lib-Lab going to require electors to have a doctors certificate/shiftwork roster/overseas airline ticket in order to vote early.
Give me a break !
Rocket Rocket,
Both Morrison and Fraud have basically said no. The only maybe is Howard, but that seems unlikely.
As far as MPs and Senators it seems like the only non-Victorian at the event is likely to be Morrison.
I suppose a major problem here is that the Party would have to pay to get them home. 🙂
jenauthor @ #633 Tuesday, May 7th, 2019 – 4:49 pm
Isn’t that somewhere around the final” informal vote”?
“What would a vegan activist use – Tofu instead of Eggs?”
The possibilities are endless.
Apples, cabbages,… egg plants.
“I make it 51.9-48.1.”
If thats the Word of William than all cool as far as i can see.
If over the campaign we have gone from 53/47 to 52/48 then whats not to like. 🙂
I still have a suspicion that because of the issues, and who they are important too, a significant part of that movement will be in seats the Libs have large margins in already.
Not expecting a boil-over in Lib safe seats like Victoria last year but there will be some surprises on the night i reckon. 🙂
“I acknowledge that partisans struggle to hear the message of another party.”
It’s not me that needs convincing. I’m on board with the transition away from a fossil fuel, mining and broad scale gazing based economy over the next 30 years.
But the likes of little old me ain’t going to provide the consensus to get it done: you self righteous ‘woke’ inner city fuckers actually have to reach out to the folk that turned their back on the Gillard-Green ETS rather than simply trying to kick them in the quim. Otherwise there will be no consensus: you can’t actually turn your back on two whole states in the commonwealth (not to mention whole sectors of the other states) and expect to achieve anything. THAT’s the point sunshine.
A boil over would be quite welcome! My actual hope is that the polls are all missing something and Labor easily win. Another 3 years of this lot is just too depressing.
Grime
2016 House 5% informal (more than I thought), Senate 4% (less than I thought), but maybe easier with above the line voting not needing to fill all the boxes.
“I acknowledge that partisans struggle to hear the message of another party.”
It’s not me that needs convincing. I’m on board with the transition away from a fossil fuel, mining and broad scale gazing based economy over the next 30 years.
But the likes of little old me ain’t going to provide the consensus to get it done: you self righteous ‘woke’ inner city fuckers actually have to reach out to the folk that turned their back on the Gillard-Green ETS rather than simply trying to kick them in the quim. Otherwise there will be no consensus: you can’t actually turn your back on two whole states in the commonwealth (not to mention whole sectors of the other states) and expect to achieve anything. THAT’s the point sunshine.
Andrew E
Regardless of voting intention, i would put the cumulative IQ of the morons in Clermont who attended that pathetic attempt of intimidation at less than the dog at the bar entrance.
Quite frankly i have no sympathy for them when they next go through drought, flood, fire etc.
As i posted in my first post, we are way beyond the “jobs, jobs, jobs” mantra in relation to climate change now.
What about the worker’s rights on the reef? what as you would put it Andrew “fuck them”? what about the supporting roles in tourism also, what “fuck them” too? At least with service jobs the staff actually get paid, are less likely to be killed, injured or poisoned on the job, and generally generate wealth across a community instead of shifting it off-shore.