Two national polls this evening, one being a second Newspoll result in successive weeks, showing Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on last week at 51-49. There is also next to no movement on the primary votes, with the Coalition at 38% (steady), Labor at 36% (down one), the Greens at 9% (unchanged), One Nation at 5% (up one) and United Australia Party at 4% (down one). As was the case last week, this might well have come out at 52-48 before Newspoll adopted its United Australia Party preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition.
There is, however, a significant negative movement for Bill Shorten’s approval rating, which at 35% is down four points on last week’s result (which itself was a two point improvement on a fortnight before). His disapproval rating is at 53%, up two. Scott Morrison was down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 44% and 45% respectively. His lead as preferred prime minister is 46-35, out from 45-37 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 2003.
In the ex-Fairfax papers, Ipsos has Labor’s lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 at its last such poll between the budget and the election announcement. This holds for both Ipsos’s respondent-allocated and previous election preference measures.
The primary votes are such as to exacerbate Ipsos’s peculiarity of having low numbers for the major parties and high ones for the Greens: both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 36% and Labor to 33%, while the Greens are up one to 14%. Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has been rather inconsistent in its poll readings, comes in at only 3% in its debut result from Ipsos, while One Nation is unchanged at 5%.
Ipsos’s personal ratings record very different movement from Newspoll’s, which can only be partly explained by the fact that the previous Ipsos was four weeks ago and the previous Newspoll was last week. The movements are entirely to the advantage of Labor, with Bill Shorten up four on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 51%; Scott Morrison down one on approval to 47% and up five on disapproval to 44%; and Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-35 to 45-40. The Ipsos poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1207.
Tony Jones, the smartass, just got owned.
Morrison was offered the same Qanda deal for next week, the Monday before polling day and has declined.
Kate says:
“LGH always exposes himself eventually…..”
I expose loyalty to truth over mass produced propaganda.
William Bowe says:
“LGH, can you just talk about Australian politics please.”
I am not the one who made first reference to the political program of Germany under Hitler, I merely answered it.
Personally I think that “you are wrong because Hitler” is indicative of a very weak argument, deserving of reply, but I will do my best to deliver on your wish.
“Mass importation ……. of non-congruent people”
Chills the blood doesn’t it – I fucking hate fascists.
How is taking away unsustainable tax concessions a tax increase? Seriously, Jones should know better.
If Labor wins all of those in Victoria they don’t need many more elsewhere to have a comfortable working majority.
Shorten doing very well.
The natural progression of Nationalism is war.
Tony Jones up to his old tricks: ask a detailed question, refuse time for a detailed answer.
No, but the person who did wasn’t a crank.
Jones telling Shorten he didn’t answer the question when that’s exactly what he did.
I heard somewhere today that there is only going to be one more Newspoll before the election. If that is the case, then presumably it will be on the 17th or 18th of May. Which means no Newspoll next weekend.
Shorten is killing it!
Dorothy Dixer!
Kate says:
Monday, May 6, 2019 at 9:41 pm
“Mass importation ……. of non-congruent people”
Chills the blood doesn’t it – I fucking hate fascists.
I’m feeling particularly non-congruent lately.
adrian:
And what’s with the one minute timeline for answering the questions?
‘jenauthor says:
Monday, May 6, 2019 at 9:02 pm
Faaaarrrrrrqqqqqq just watch 7:30
Morrison ate 20 energiser bunnies and then vomited all over Leigh Sales. He is an offensive creature.’
Thinking about responses to Morrison and Sales, I noticed a possible difference between patterns of responses. Is it that males wanted Sales to quell Morrison while females wanted Morrison to treat Sales with respect?
Restricting negative gearing refunds is a ‘generational square up’ according to Jones.
Something Jones made up to get at Shorten.
Young Liberals over represented as questioners tonight.
C
Trick question from Jones but Shorten was too smart for it.
Imagine the headlines had Shorten agreed with that proposition?
Boerwar:
This female wanted Sales to find her inner assertive professional like Karvelas did with Barnaby.
To be fair William, when I made that comment I thought he would understand my point to be “society has sanctioned some evil shit these past 100 years as perfectly normal” and I didn’t think he would be dumb enough to try to defend Hitler.
Turns out, I was wrong on that front.
PeeBee says:
Monday, May 6, 2019 at 9:49 pm
Good it will help highlight how vacuous their policy platform is.
Na Boerwar I wanted Sales to smash his arse……
Boerwar @ #1370 Monday, May 6th, 2019 – 7:49 pm
Yes.
Short answer to current Q&A questioner (property investor): you’re doing well. You don’t need concessions and subsidies. You can get stuffed.
BiPT, have to agree, they are giving Bill the opportunity to expose some of the lies (despite Jones’ best efforts to stop him).
Kate says:
“Chills the blood doesn’t it – I fucking hate fascists.”
Fascism arises when the body charts an unsustainable course pushed by the elite at the expense of the people.
A world that charts a direction that makes fascism unnecessary I too would embrace, e.g. one that charted a course of economic, environmental, social, cultural and ethnic sustainability that we are not on.
When do environmental fascists arrive? When the environment is threatened?
There is no point crying about natural human responses, they were input by nature for a reason. Note for example under war conditions all parties become fascist, but this dissipates when war is ended.
In the end when society is on un unsustainable path pushed by its elite it will turn to tyranny (to continue the destruction) or fascism (to resist it). If we don’t want to re-walk ww2 the secret is to avoid the period that preceded it.. and note, seeking to squash fascism also proceeded ww2 so to claim to “just do that again but be successful” is changing nothing.
If nothing else what I describe does describe the reasoning and events behind and basis of shifts reflected in Brexit, Trump, European elections (e.g. Italy, Austria, Hungary, Poland, Russia, EU scepticism etc).
A byword if you think I advocate something horrible for any person or group: I very much support demographic safety and unmolested self-determination for all people, and maintenance of everyone’s physical safety resident in a nation (these morals are what drove me to the positions I support). I’d argue each of you that disagree with me abandon that principle and it is to the detriment of your argument.
My position is after all consistent with anti-Colonialism, mass immigration generally is not.
Kate, Confessions
Curious…
…was either of your responses mediated by the view that Morrison was treating Sales with contempt because she was a woman?
Geez Tony Jones gives me the shits. Now I remember why I rarely watch Q&A.
This is absolutely brilliant from Shorten.
Jones is going for gotchas. Such a shame as he’s ruining what could be a great insight into Labor policy.
Shameful Shorten, cannot even commit to raising the dole – “will review it”, sums up everything wrong with Labor policy. And nothing to abolish HECS fees for uni students.
Bill killed that answer 🙂
He’s completely winning over the audience.
Great response to the question about his popularity, taking the mickey right back at the questioner!
Malcolm is probably watching this from New York LOL!
Boerwar – I’d just like ANY interviewer to take this fraud on – male or female is irrelevant to me.
Jones being obnoxious.
“The natural progression of Nationalism is war.”
The hard right in America oppose all foreign intervention as do they in Australia except for dribs and drabs.. definitely not the majority of the hard-right.
Trump has put pressure and lost support from his base for every war-mongering move, but incidentally picked up support from moderates and the centre.
Note CNN describe Trump’s intervention in Syria as “necessary” and demand more, the hard right demand no more American blood spilled on foreign lands, concentrate on improving things at home.
Bill, as is his wont, is really warming up to the task.
And now here’s a slack jawed retiree.
What an idiot to rely on franking credits for 20% of his income. Another publicly funded wanker.
When are we going to get questions on the environment?
Shut up Jones!
Yes no questions on AGW yet.
Did anyone else see the part at the beginning where a questioner asked “will the average Australian pay more tax” and Tony Jones recast that to Shorten as “will there be any new taxes”?
I mean, seriously. WTF?!
Dont see anything much about the Sales / ScoMo interview.
He can talk under concrete and just kept on keeping on with talking points. Lib voters will be happy, Labor voters pissed off he didn’t definitively fwark up, and uncommitted voters (if they were watching 7:30 ) wont have any reason to shift their votes from wherever they decided to months ago.
Shorten on QANDA has more opportunity to screw up (haven’t seen it yet in W.A/) and more opportunity to win a few votes. Good on him.
ScoMo runs away from opportunity. Not worthy to be dog-catcher much less PM.
No wonder Morrison won’t go on Q&A – he’ll be fact-checked.
The answer to the question on salary increases for early childhood educators is that there is a multitude of evidence that shows the first 1000 days is critical in terms of human development, and the prevention spin offs that arise from that down the lifecourse.