Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor

Two polls show Labor maintaining its modest lead, although they have different stories to tell on primary votes and leaders’ ratings.

Two national polls this evening, one being a second Newspoll result in successive weeks, showing Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on last week at 51-49. There is also next to no movement on the primary votes, with the Coalition at 38% (steady), Labor at 36% (down one), the Greens at 9% (unchanged), One Nation at 5% (up one) and United Australia Party at 4% (down one). As was the case last week, this might well have come out at 52-48 before Newspoll adopted its United Australia Party preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition.

There is, however, a significant negative movement for Bill Shorten’s approval rating, which at 35% is down four points on last week’s result (which itself was a two point improvement on a fortnight before). His disapproval rating is at 53%, up two. Scott Morrison was down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 44% and 45% respectively. His lead as preferred prime minister is 46-35, out from 45-37 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 2003.

In the ex-Fairfax papers, Ipsos has Labor’s lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 at its last such poll between the budget and the election announcement. This holds for both Ipsos’s respondent-allocated and previous election preference measures.

The primary votes are such as to exacerbate Ipsos’s peculiarity of having low numbers for the major parties and high ones for the Greens: both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 36% and Labor to 33%, while the Greens are up one to 14%. Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has been rather inconsistent in its poll readings, comes in at only 3% in its debut result from Ipsos, while One Nation is unchanged at 5%.

Ipsos’s personal ratings record very different movement from Newspoll’s, which can only be partly explained by the fact that the previous Ipsos was four weeks ago and the previous Newspoll was last week. The movements are entirely to the advantage of Labor, with Bill Shorten up four on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 51%; Scott Morrison down one on approval to 47% and up five on disapproval to 44%; and Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-35 to 45-40. The Ipsos poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1207.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,544 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor”

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  7. Ipsos’s peculiarity of having low numbers for the major parties and high ones for the Greens

    I’d love to know why this is. As someone asked earlier, what is it with Ipsos that the Greens vote is consistently over-represented?

  9. Comforting is all I can say even if we give less credence to Ispos c.f. Newspoll. It seems about right considering how the campaign is playing out. Personally I think this country is insane to be still considering Scott Morrison a preferred PM to Bill but it is what it is and a 4 point 2PP is a good enough buffer with 2 weeks to go

  12. Very interesting preference results for One Nation and UAP: if accurate, what would this mean for Newspoll?

    Also this is yet another poll showing low UAP: fascinating to think what Sturt might look like if the promised 9% UAP flowing at 60%+ to the Libs fails to eventuate.

  13. Firefox @ #547 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 2:24 pm

    C@t, please don’t put words in my mouth. It was only yesterday that I was saying that Rudd especially deserves more credit for how he handled the GFC.

    Come on though. Even you have to admit that Rudd and Gillard looked pretty funny together. They were there today to support Labor. Pretending to be best of friends when we all know they are anything but just looked comical. But credit to both of them for trying I guess lol

    Labor must think people are pretty stupid to think they’re all a happy family again.

  14. Vogon Poet says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 6:15 pm

    Barney
    so many rabbit holes

    Nah, I think it’s just one hole, but it’s getting crowded!

  18. Being a feckless wonder doesn’t do your credibility as an internet troll any good Rex.

    Do better trolling.

  20. An RBA rate rise would be almost the last straw wouldn’t you think?
    Bound to push a few more waverers over the edge to give the ALP the majority of seats.
    Still holding out for 91.

  23. Ipsos reports Labor holding the line, Bill Shorten gaining ground over Scott Morrison, and unusual numbers on the primary vote.

    William,

    Shouldn’t “unusual” be “it’s usual” by now?

  24. ‘Tricot says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 5:36 pm

    The Labor “team” has yet to be proved in office. ‘

    Uh huh. Nothing like a Grumpy Green!

    ALL senior Labor Shadows have had extensive experience as ministers. All senior Labor Shadows have had six years of strenuous work on developing the most ambitious suite of costed and funded policies in Opposition in the history of the Federation. They have done this without the massive policy resources of departments, of Treasury or or Finance.

    The Team has worked remarkably well in that most difficult of all circumstances: a Party deeply divided as well as a Party that had suffered a shattering electoral defeat. The policy productivity is remarkably good. The Team discipline over six years has been extraordinary: virtually nothing for the Liberals, the Newscorps vultures, or the Greens to feed off.

    The completely untested rabble are members of minor and powerless parties who have never had ministerial responsibilities, who never will have ministerial responsibilities, and who have zero accountability for policies that do not have to be grounded in anything at all but the fevered imaginations of ideologues and of populist ratbags. Despite decades of snouting the public trough, not one of them has ever delivered a skerrick of substance.

    These are the sorts of do-nothing snot-nosed snivellers would be the ones sneering at the Labor Team being ‘untested’.

  25. boolean:

    You mean an RBA rate cut, which would take the rug out from under the govt and its message that the economy is strong.

  26. Proving Craig Kelly is a dangerous idiot because he doesn’t understand the difference between Socialism and National Socialists.

    From Encyclopedia Britannica:

    Nazism, also spelled Naziism, in full National Socialism, German Nationalsozialismus, totalitarian movement led by Adolf Hitler as head of the Nazi Party in Germany. In its intense nationalism, mass appeal, and dictatorial rule, Nazism shared many elements with Italian fascism. However, Nazism was far more extreme both in its ideas and in its practice. In almost every respect it was an anti-intellectual and atheoretical movement, emphasizing the will of the charismatic dictator as the sole source of inspiration of a people and a nation, as well as a vision of annihilation of all enemies of the Aryan Volk as the one and only goal of Nazi policy.

    In other words, Fascism is NOT Socialism!

  27. I read an article where a political lecturer suggested Shorten polling was down on preferred PM because voters couldn’t imagine him being PM. He predicted it would rise as the election got closer as voters came to the realisation that likely will be a realty. Which may explain the rise in Bill Shortens preferred PM in Ipsos.

    I’m also hoping as the election gets closer the time for change factor will lock in and voters will get behind Labor. However that narrative may not be as strong as the 2007 election because the Howard government was in power longer.

  28. “How would Labor fare if the Greens Party decided against HTV cards… ?”

    I’d say exactly the same. 83% would preference labor. The remaining 17% are core ‘Greens’ activists who would preference the Liberals: keeping in contact with mummy and daddy and making sure the family trust will still be there after they finish their gap year.

    The bigger question is where the Greens would be in the senate if Labor didn’t preference them? I reckon they’d top out at about 5-6 senate seats all up….

  29. Peter van Onselen
    @vanOnselenP
    I believe there will be a Newspoll and IPSOS out tomorrow.

    Out of the loop by the look of it

  30. Confessions @ #7 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 6:41 pm

    Ipsos’s peculiarity of having low numbers for the major parties and high ones for the Greens

    I’d love to know why this is. As someone asked earlier, what is it with Ipsos that the Greens vote is consistently over-represented?

    slackboy72 had a good explanation for this at the end of the last thread.

  31. At one time Keating and Hewson were arch political enemies. Nowadays’ given what each is saying, there doesn’t seem to be a lot separating them.

  32. “Proving Craig Kelly is a dangerous idiot because he doesn’t understand the difference between Socialism and National Socialists.”

    Even PVO gets confused about this …

  34. Confessions @ #24 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 6:49 pm

    boolean:

    You mean an RBA rate cut, which would take the rug out from under the govt and its message that the economy is strong.

    Precisely. A cut. Did I say rise?
    The MSM for the past few weeks have been stating that a rate cut would mean a weak economy.
    Anyone tuned in to Ch7, Ch9, The ABC would have heard this point made clear & often.
    It suggests the LNP Govt. is not so hot at economic mgt. as they make out to be.
    Just another straw on the back of the (some sort of animal).

  35. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 6:47 pm

    How would Labor fare if the Greens Party decided against HTV cards… ?

    I doubt that they’d give much of a shit as Green voters seem to take little notice of them.

    Basically it would say more about the Greens as a Party more than anything else.

  36. Labor at it’s 2013 nadir of 33%? Yeah right. Greens 14? Ditto.

    Let’s say Labor 37, Greens 10, with Lib / Palm / PHON / other at 37, 3, 5, 8.

    I get Labor 2PP = 37 + 8 + 0 + 1.2 + 2 + 4 = 52.2 –> 52.

    Margin of error is 2.9%

  38. Kelly well knows the difference between the Fash and Socialists. He just feels embarrassed by association.

  39. The Nazis included the word Socialist to appeal to the working class. It largely failed. There was a faction inside the Nazis run by the Strasser brothers who held similar positions to socialism, primarily being anti-capitalist. One brother was killed during the night of the long knives the other brother escaped Germany. So not really socialist at all. They were nationalist/racists above all else.

  40. Breaking News

    Ipsos poll

    LNP 52

    ALP 48

    Only our great LNP will win the May election by a landslide and shorten must resign and let Albo take us to 2022 election

  41. The sun is setting on Liberal Party wage theft, let there be praise.
    The sun is setting on tacit Liberal Party government acceptance of fascism, let there be praise.
    A new, golden dawn awaits Australia.
    Fuck the Tories.

  42. Labor should be grateful for the Greens Party propping them up, but all they do is attack them. Strange logic.

  43. Sceptic says:
    Sunday, May 5, 2019 at 6:52 pm
    Peter van Onselen
    @vanOnselenP
    I believe there will be a Newspoll and IPSOS out tomorrow.

    Out of the loop by the look of it

    Both are “officially” out tomorrow in Nine/Fairfax and Murdoch papers. However the results provide talking points on shows like Sky after dark on Sunday nights.

  44. It’s possible that the climate change related appeal of the Gs is resonating and the G PV has lifted in response. But it’s not likely. The better explanation is that IPSOS’s algorithms are shonky and this accounts for the volatility in their estimates of both Labor and the G’s.

  45. I mean seeing as we are talking Shorten we should mention the night of the long knives. He’s had a couple.

  47. If the RBA does cut rates before the election it will be a further corollary to the vibe of the 2007 election. Obviously back then the RBA raised rates but it still undermined the message Howard and Costello were spruiking, and played into Labor’s hands.

  48. A 48-52 NewsPoll with a tightening in the personal ratings would completely destroy the Australian’s narrative. 🙂

  49. booleanbach @ #20 Sunday, May 5th, 2019 – 6:46 pm

    An RBA rate rise would be almost the last straw wouldn’t you think?
    Bound to push a few more waverers over the edge to give the ALP the majority of seats.
    Still holding out for 91.

    That’s not going to happen. We’re looking at a rate cut on Tuesday.

  50. Sorry all, I’ve been out of touch. But I got back tonight in time to harvest some Ipsos guesses, just before the poll was released. Take a bow Fozzie Logic. 🙂 I’ll be back later tonight to harvest additional Newspoll guesses.

    PB-Guess: Ipsos 2019-05-05
    Actual: ALP 52 to 48 LNP
    Median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    Mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    Mean: ALP 52.7 to 47.3 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 19

    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 a r *until the election
    47 / 53 Al Pal
    53 / 47 Dan Gulberry *permanent
    54 / 46 EB *permanent
    52 / 48 Fozzie Logic *until May 17
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    53 / 47 Goll *until the election
    52 / 48 Gorks
    53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    57 / 43 KayJay *all next polls
    51 / 49 ltep
    51 / 49 Matt
    53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
    55 / 45 Question *until the election
    56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
    53 / 47 sonar *permanent
    51 / 49 Steve777 *any other poll
    51 / 49 Tetsujin
    53 / 47 Tricot *any polls

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