Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor

Two polls show Labor maintaining its modest lead, although they have different stories to tell on primary votes and leaders’ ratings.

Two national polls this evening, one being a second Newspoll result in successive weeks, showing Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on last week at 51-49. There is also next to no movement on the primary votes, with the Coalition at 38% (steady), Labor at 36% (down one), the Greens at 9% (unchanged), One Nation at 5% (up one) and United Australia Party at 4% (down one). As was the case last week, this might well have come out at 52-48 before Newspoll adopted its United Australia Party preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition.

There is, however, a significant negative movement for Bill Shorten’s approval rating, which at 35% is down four points on last week’s result (which itself was a two point improvement on a fortnight before). His disapproval rating is at 53%, up two. Scott Morrison was down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 44% and 45% respectively. His lead as preferred prime minister is 46-35, out from 45-37 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 2003.

In the ex-Fairfax papers, Ipsos has Labor’s lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 at its last such poll between the budget and the election announcement. This holds for both Ipsos’s respondent-allocated and previous election preference measures.

The primary votes are such as to exacerbate Ipsos’s peculiarity of having low numbers for the major parties and high ones for the Greens: both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 36% and Labor to 33%, while the Greens are up one to 14%. Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has been rather inconsistent in its poll readings, comes in at only 3% in its debut result from Ipsos, while One Nation is unchanged at 5%.

Ipsos’s personal ratings record very different movement from Newspoll’s, which can only be partly explained by the fact that the previous Ipsos was four weeks ago and the previous Newspoll was last week. The movements are entirely to the advantage of Labor, with Bill Shorten up four on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 51%; Scott Morrison down one on approval to 47% and up five on disapproval to 44%; and Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-35 to 45-40. The Ipsos poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1207.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,544 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. It’s a young wanker neo con-fest.
    B, most Aussie’s don’t give a shit.
    Just lower my power bills and give me a pay rise.

  2. ‘Lars von Trier says:
    Monday, May 6, 2019 at 10:13 pm

    Richard Di Natale should have also been invited on Qanda. Big fail by ABC.’

    Yep. They should have a Q&A panel of the second rate wannabes: Hanson, McCormack, Katter, Palmer and… uh, Di Natale.

  3. Lars von Trier says:
    Monday, May 6, 2019 at 10:13 pm
    Richard Di Natale should have also been invited on Qanda. Big fail by ABC.

    The titular leader of the anti-Labor alliance gets lots of media space. There’s no need to double up.

  4. Lars von Trier says:
    Monday, May 6, 2019 at 10:13 pm

    Richard Di Natale should have also been invited on Qanda. Big fail by ABC.

    Why?
    He’s been on plenty of times before.

    Anyway this is for the leaders who have a chance of being PM.

  5. Barney, the ABC is supposed to be about balance, we have had ScoMo on 730 and Shorten on Qanda tonight. Having Richard on would have provided a progressive alternative pov to the conservative 2 party monopoly.

  6. “Lars von Trier says:
    Monday, May 6, 2019 at 10:13 pm

    Richard Di Natale should have also been invited on Qanda. Big fail by ABC.”

    Wot, on the same program / session as Shorten??

  7. No, let Di Natale onto QandA.

    I want to see someone on here accuse an audience member of being a Labor/Liberal plant every time Di Natale fumbles a question.

  8. Lars von Trier says:
    Monday, May 6, 2019 at 10:20 pm

    Barney, the ABC is supposed to be about balance, we have had ScoMo on 730 and Shorten on Qanda tonight. Having Richard on would have provided a progressive alternative pov to the conservative 2 party monopoly.

    Oh, yes the sole bastion of progressive politics. 😆

    By the way, When do you expect him to be PM?

  9. ‘Henry says:
    Monday, May 6, 2019 at 10:18 pm

    We are irrelevant to the yanks.
    Bill is nailing his response to this shite.’

    Of course we are relevant to the US.
    We are a supporter of liberal democracy.
    We are not a dictatorship.
    We are a friendly middle power and the 12th largest economy in the world.
    The ADF is technically superior to all immediate threats.
    Geographically we hold a critical strategic pivot position between the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. As their Darwin positioning of marines and equipment demonstrates, we are a fundamental part of strategic depth. Pine Gap and North-west Cape are a fundamental part of defence comms.
    etc, etc, etc.

  10. Lars von Trier @ #1412 Monday, May 6th, 2019 – 10:20 pm

    Barney, the ABC is supposed to be about balance, we have had ScoMo on 730 and Shorten on Qanda tonight. Having Richard on would have provided a progressive alternative pov to the conservative 2 party monopoly.

    Yes I agree. The wiggles need a black wiggle. RDN fits the bill perfectly.

  11. The simple answer to any questions re costings/spending is this;
    “Each year, your government spends about $350 billion of your money on what they believe is important. We won’t spend any more or any less, what we will be doing is changing what your money is being spent on to prioritise the less well off and the environment”.

  12. ‘Lars von Trier says:
    Monday, May 6, 2019 at 10:25 pm

    Weasel words on Adani by Shorten.’

    His answer was ‘No.’
    No weasels in sight.

  13. The Adani issue more than any issue in the last 15 years shows how irrelevant the Greens are.

    Illegally stopping Adani won’t stop 1 gram of coal being burnt, all it will do is gift Adani hundreds of million dollars in compensation for something that will fail of its own accord.

  14. ‘Sceptic says:
    Monday, May 6, 2019 at 10:28 pm

    The Adani issue more than any issue in the last 15 years shows how irrelevant the Greens are.

    Illegally stopping Adani won’t stop 1 gram of coal being burnt, all it will do is gift Adani hundreds of million dollars in compensation for something that will fail of its own accord.’

    I notice that the Greens have stopped boasting that their policies are costed and funded.
    No wonder.

  15. B, we’re only relevant to the yanks when they need us.
    For the other 99% of the time we are, well, irrelevant.

  16. Sceptic is right about Adani

    We are not a dictatorship
    The PM can’t just declare the gov’t will stop Adani’s mine

    Processes have to be followed else Adani makes a mint out of compensation

  17. Apply for the Aged Pension, and if you are approved either in full or in part, live on that

    If you do not qualify either on income or on assets (excluding the family home) then you live on what you have accrued in superannuation, drawing at a legislated MINIMUM amount being a percentage of the amount you have accrued (so $700,000- at 5% = $35,000- PA)

    That $35,000- is TAX FREE

    So, courtesy of having paid your taxes, having paid a Contributions Tax at 15% on contributing to superannuation and paying a tax of 15% on earnings in your super fund whilst in Accumulation Phase, and having the minimum amount you must avail of legislated, you get to pay no tax on your Allocated Pension

    And they are your circumstances

    Live within your means – as the very great majority of Australians do, and those who don’t are bankrupted taking other people’s money with them

    And I will add

    The most significant reaction of the Rudd government during the fallout from the GFC was to reduce by 50% the minimum amount required to be taken as an Allocated Pension because as compounding and time see the accrual of wealth so the reverse is true when markets come under the pressures the GFC imposed

    Recovery, particularly when you are retired is a long, long way of easy

    And if your portfolio is decimated to half by the Market, your income is accordingly halved because your Allocated Pension is 5% of your balance

    And you may then be eligible for the pension or a part pension

    That is what the pension is there for

    And respect should be shown to those who are actually fully self funded in retirement – not receiving any benefit from government except for their Allocated Pension being tax free (to $1.6 Million per account holder – so both spouses)

    Not to those who present as self funded but have their hands out

    And what do those on the Aged Pension think of Franking Credits handouts and the complaint, them surviving on the Aged Pension?

  18. The greens want to relive their glory days of the Batman bye election, stopping Labor’s Adani coal mine.

  19. ‘Henry says:
    Monday, May 6, 2019 at 10:31 pm

    B, we’re only relevant to the yanks when they need us.
    For the other 99% of the time we are, well, irrelevant.’

    I don’t frame foreign relationships as being episodic. Neither, I dare say, do the Americans involved in foreign affairs, military or economic leadership.

  20. FTR – I don’t support Adani, but it’s clear that it’s DOA and the Qld Govt has found way after way to stop it.

  21. Lars von Trier says:
    Monday, May 6, 2019 at 10:25 pm

    Weasel words on Adani by Shorten.

    Sounded quite open and clear.

    Of course when your words have no weight you can say whatever.

  22. A parent orders an Uber for their child so that they know their child is safe?

    Is Shorten using a different Uber from the Uber everyone else uses to get rides from one place to another?

  23. I just watched 730, I thought Leigh Sales did well. ScoMo could talk underwater and Sales did well to give him the rope he needed to hang himself.

  24. what a blinder of an innings by Mr Shorten on Q&A. Just – wow!

    whomever advised scomo not to turn up will be writing their resignation letter right now.

    The Oz will report “Shorten refuses to disown Keating” and try to ignore it,

    I never thought I’d say this, but spread this Q&A far and wide

  25. Hey cool. Next Q&A will be 2-on-1 lefties vs. RWNJ’s. If Di Natale can restrain himself from making snarky comments about Labor, the Coalition guy is going to get absolutely humiliated.

    All because Morrison is too chicken to do a solo Q&A like Shorten.

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