Two national polls this evening, one being a second Newspoll result in successive weeks, showing Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on last week at 51-49. There is also next to no movement on the primary votes, with the Coalition at 38% (steady), Labor at 36% (down one), the Greens at 9% (unchanged), One Nation at 5% (up one) and United Australia Party at 4% (down one). As was the case last week, this might well have come out at 52-48 before Newspoll adopted its United Australia Party preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition.
There is, however, a significant negative movement for Bill Shorten’s approval rating, which at 35% is down four points on last week’s result (which itself was a two point improvement on a fortnight before). His disapproval rating is at 53%, up two. Scott Morrison was down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 44% and 45% respectively. His lead as preferred prime minister is 46-35, out from 45-37 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 2003.
In the ex-Fairfax papers, Ipsos has Labor’s lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 at its last such poll between the budget and the election announcement. This holds for both Ipsos’s respondent-allocated and previous election preference measures.
The primary votes are such as to exacerbate Ipsos’s peculiarity of having low numbers for the major parties and high ones for the Greens: both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 36% and Labor to 33%, while the Greens are up one to 14%. Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has been rather inconsistent in its poll readings, comes in at only 3% in its debut result from Ipsos, while One Nation is unchanged at 5%.
Ipsos’s personal ratings record very different movement from Newspoll’s, which can only be partly explained by the fact that the previous Ipsos was four weeks ago and the previous Newspoll was last week. The movements are entirely to the advantage of Labor, with Bill Shorten up four on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 51%; Scott Morrison down one on approval to 47% and up five on disapproval to 44%; and Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-35 to 45-40. The Ipsos poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1207.
Faaaarrrrrrqqqqqq just watch 7:30
Morrison ate 20 energiser bunnies and then vomited all over Leigh Sales. He is an offensive creature.
Shouty and condescending, thats how that boofhead Sydneysider comes across.
Full of piss and wind
I’ve yet to meet a National Socialist masquerading as a Green, but I’ve certainly met one or two running for ON.
The Lib-Libs are in cahoots with ON and the other clones. When will the Gs cease trying to procure the re-election of the Lib-Libs and the defeat of Labor? When will they wake up to the facts of political life?
Morrisin is a master bloviator
mundo is a concern troll.
Nobody who takes a Morgan poll seriously deserves to be taken seriously as a pseph (amateur or professional) or a pundit.
Morrisons 7.30 interview will play well with the rusted on, especially those more to the right and with similar personalities, but will it gain him any votes? Will he lose any neutrals? I’m bias and I’m very unimpressed with him but it would be fascinating to know if this style works as a positive or negative in general?
“#Morgan Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 38.5 (-1) ALP 34 (-2) GRN 11 (+1.5) ON 4 (+1.5) UAP 3.5 (+1.5) #auspol “
I call bullshit on Labor 34.
Let’s say Labor 36, Green 9 and accept the rest. Others = 9.
Labor 2PP = 0 + 36 + 7.2 + 2.4 + 1.4 + 4.5 = 51.5.
So 51 or 52.
Yes, after reading lots of Mundos posts, I concur.
Looks like Newspoll are underselling the Greens Party compared to the other pollsters.
Confessions says:
“An extremist PHON policy position? Dictating what Australian women can and can’t wear.”
Whilst I agree that burkas should not be banned and people should be entitled to wear what they want many mainstream countries have these kind of policies in place.. I mean we don’t hear of those “extremist mainstream French citizens” or “extremist mainstream Austrians”. And we also live in a regime that from time to time does dictate what citizens wear in other scenarios.
E.g. dress standards in parliament, prohibitions on the amount of skin that can be shown in public, prohibitions on the “speech inherent” in clothing that carries particular words or symbols.
So I would cast that policy as stupid and misdirected rather than extreme.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, May 6, 2019 at 9:07 pm
Looks like Newspoll are underselling the Greens Party compared to the other pollsters.
—————
Oh puhleeze, you really think they’re going score 14 as in that Ipsos poll?
briefly @ 9:03pm:
“The Lib-Libs are in cahoots with ON and the other clones. When will the Gs cease trying to procure the re-election of the Lib-Libs and the defeat of Labor? When will they wake up to the facts of political life?”
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
If you disagree with Dr Steven Hail’s assessment of the ALP’s foolish decision to target a fiscal surplus, tell him!
The ALP are screwing themselves by making this promise. If they try to implement it, they will make households more financially fragile. When they almost certainly fail to achieve it (because it is a non-discretionary variable that depends on the spending and saving decisions of millions of people), they will be perceived as bad economic managers. Instead of correcting the myth that fiscal surpluses should be a policy goal, the ALP are perpetuating that myth. This will hurt them very badly.
https://www.facebook.com/green.modernmoneytheoryandpractice/
“Malcolm Fraser is no longer Malcom Fraser. His modern policy views align him with the Greens and Labor”
TBF, he has been a bit off his game lately.
This election is bringing all the crazies out of the woodwork!
Toby Esterhase @ #1310 Monday, May 6th, 2019 – 9:10 pm
You want to hope so if you want Labor to form Govt.
Without the Greens Party propping up Labor, Morrison would continue to be PM.
LGH,
All your tax scenarios are based upon an altruism by the wealthy that bears no resemblance to reality.
Millennial says:
“80 years ago, society thought that Hitler chap was an alright guy with some interesting ideas.”
Some of Hitler’s ideas:
* national sovereignty (still the norm today outside the deeply propagandised Western mainstream)
* not forcing the majority to live under an apartheid regime (still the norm today)
* self-determination
* public funding of works
* mandated leave for workers
* old age pensions
* environmental protections
* peace over war
World war 2 was an ugly thing all round, the winners were ugly then, ugly before and ugly in their war making to this day.
As I said though, no issue with people stating they disagree with the morality or sense of a position, it is still another thing to label it as extremist.
Embracing a loss of majority status within society and concomitant loss of group-self determination remains more extreme than its opposite.
I agree with Rex’s comment re the Greens. Gillard got 37.99% of the primary in 2010 , yet Shorten is tracking at 36% in Newspoll – and may yet become PM. That’s only possible because of the good work of the Greens.
C@tmomma says:
“All your tax scenarios are based upon an altruism by the wealthy that bears no resemblance to reality.”
None of what I say is based upon this, hence the inclusion of 1 to 1 audits for every potential tax-payer that claims significant deductions.
(Hey we could give the jobs to the bank workers being replaced by outsourcing or technological developments).
Gish Gallopers like Morrison work on the following principles:
● Suck all the oxygen out of any interview or debate by hogging the microphone, lectern or stage;
● Quote numbers, lots of numbers in the millions, billions, squillions, and with as many decimal points as possible (no-one will check them, and if they do, just quote more numbers),
● Sound supremely confident; claim you know literally everything, and your opponent knows literally nothing;
● Find an expert, any expert;
● If in doubt, shout.
He doesnt have to listen to the human noise bomb that is Morrison. I am envious.
Um… Hitler wanted peace over War?
Wow.
No wonder you use the ‘globalist’ code word.
Henry says:
“What a disgrace universities have become.
Just rent seekers and profit maximisers.”
Hear, hear!
Be honest with yourself BB, Scomo and Shorten same same but different. Only the Greens offer a genuine alternative for progressive voters.
We would have a decent dole in this country if it wasn’t for the 2 party conspiracy to punish the unemployed.
Media Watch getting stuck into Fisher’s climate report and Newscorpse’s promotion of it.
Nothing on the ABC’s blatant promotion of the same report.
I wonder what William will think if he ever reads this thread.
LGH always exposes himself eventually…..
J341983 says:
“Um… Hitler wanted peace over War?”
This is simply factual.
https://www.wintersonnenwende.com/scriptorium/english/archives/nothanks/wwr00.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Churchill,_Hitler_and_the_Unnecessary_War
I don’t know how many modern wars must pass “Libya, Iraq #1 & #2, Vietnam, Korea, Syria..” .. perhaps a new Chinese war, or some other.. before people realise the pattern of rejecting peace is quite normal for the ‘West” and its rejection in ww2 entirely not out of character.
Fucking hell.
Nicholas, I agree with you. Labor should focus on expanding employment, household incomes and social incomes. They should use their fiscal discretion with respect to both revenue and spending to re-balance the economy and to invest in both the hard and soft economies.
There is absolutely no merit whatsoever in pursuing a surplus for its own sake. The best illustration of this is the recent lamentable record in personal incomes, which have been falling in real per capita terms. This is a direct consequence of the Lib-Lib political strategy, which has dictated a net transfer of income from the private sector tomthe public sector at a time when domestic demand has been notably weak.
The demand for fiscal straightening is an ideological and political demand. It is not an economic necessity. On the contrary, it is economically dysfunctional. In the current context, an attempt to drive up the public sector surplus will have the self-defeating result of lifting the private sector desire to save, and this will result in contraction.
I hope that Labor’s egalitarian and investment measures will lead to an expansion in the private economy and that in turn will lift both fiscal revenue and spending. The fiscal balance will be in surplus or deficit, but in itself this will not matter. The real effect on private and social incomes and production are what matter.
In his promotion of Hitler LGH forgot to mention he loved dogs………
The problem is briefly Labor has not yet been purged of neoclassical economics despite the rear guard efforts of some within Labor. Only the Greens offer a genuine progressive alternative!
LGH is the bludger-nom for a home-grown Nat-Soc, a Clone of the Lib-Libs. Terrific.
LGH, can you just talk about Australian politics please.
LGH, painting the dog who wanted to wipe out an entire race of people as “peaceful” ?
You really are Meshuganah
Onya PvO! The one Liberal in our media prepared to push back against today’s Liberal party and its obfuscations.
Weirdest post all night
briefly
says:
Monday, May 6, 2019 at 9:28 pm
Nicholas, I agree with you.
Just catching up with ScumMo’s lie-fest on 7:30 Report. He said:
“Do I think the United Australia Party is a bigger risk to the Australian economy and jobs and Australia’s future than Labor and the Greens? No, I don’t think they’re a bigger risk.”
WTF? A one person party with no real members and a boss who still owes millions in unpaid worker entitlements from his last hair brained venture that went bankrupt, is LESS risk to the Australian economy than the party that got Australia through the GFC with no recession? And Clive, where did you get to with that replica Titanic?
ScumMo’s greatest skill is lying while smiling. It almost makes him believable. Until you listen to what he is saying.
ScumMon also does a great impersonation of Pontius Pilate when it comes to washing his hands of the Nationals.
C@tmomma says:
“How’s this for an extremist PHON view? And this was said by a PHONy handing out HTVs in Gosford today:”
‘We already have Sharia Law in Australia. Only Pauline Hanson will prevent the Muslims taking over Australia and taking over the federal parliament.’
Elements of Shariah law are consistent with relatively newly instituted Australian law, such as prohibitions on criticising Islam or Muslim migration and the characterisation of such as “hate speech” and attracting of such speech criminal & civil liabilities.
You may ask the citizens of Afghanistan, Birmingham, Malmo and Clichy-sous-Bois about their modern situation and the history that led to it:
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/2487/french-suburbs-islamic-societies
It is consistent with creeping Shariah.
Now is the pamphlet hyperbole? Yes. But is the underling message: mass importation of ethnically & religiously non-congruent people changes the character of a receiving people and society? No, that is fundamental truth.
Lars, this bludger is an unreconstructed Keynesian rather than a Classico, with the added plumage of environmental economics. You’re apparently just an economic illiterate.
LGH @ #1311 Monday, May 6th, 2019 – 7:09 pm
Well you can suit yourself as you no doubt will, but in a secular democracy such as Australia, an Australian parliamentarian attempting to dictate what women here can and can’t wear is pretty extreme in my view. It ranks up there with the former Liberal MP and then Health Minister trying to get a routinely accepted method of birth control banned from use in Australia.
Quality discourse coming from this place tonight…
Goddammit, it happened again.
Lars
“The problem is briefly Labor has not yet been purged of neoclassical economics despite the rear guard efforts of some within Labor. Only the Greens offer a genuine progressive alternative!”
The problem is Lars, the Greens have not yet been purged of marxist extremists despite the factional efforts of some in the Victoria Greens. Only Labor offer an electable progressive alternative!
“Now is the pamphlet hyperbole? Yes. But is the underling message: mass importation of ethnically & religiously non-congruent people changes the character of a receiving people and society? No, that is fundamental truth.”
This is correct
Socrates:
Yes I bristled at that as well. Such ridiculousness from our PM.
Shorten now on Qanda.
I hear Roberto Candeloro at his peak.