Click on the image at the bottom of the post and you will see an updated account of the electorates visited by the leaders during the campaign, more or less (there is an element of subjectivity as to what constitutes a visit). One of the salient points to emerge is the rather intensive focus on Tasmania, which remarkably played host to both leaders yesterday. Scott Morrison has spent three days over two visits – exactly equal to his record for Victoria, where he has targeted the five Liberal-held seats on margins of up to 6.4%, but not wasted effort on Dunkley, which is Liberal-held but notionally Labor. Bill Shorten’s visit to the state was likewise his second, but so far he’s spent two days in the state to Morrison’s three.
Western Australia also logged up some points this week, but this is largely due to the debate having been held there on Monday, and the practicality of hanging around afterwards given the distance involved. Nonetheless, it is notable that Morrison spent fully three days campaigning their compared with Shorten’s two, and that Morrison felt it worth his while to conduct a street walk in the electorate of Canning, situated well up the pendulum at 6.8%.
Bill Shorten is overdue for a visit to New South Wales, where he hasn’t been since he spent the first three full days of the campaign in Sydney. Nonetheless, the prize for the most targeted seat of the campaign so far would appear to be the Sydney seat of Reid, which has been visited three times by Scott Morrison, most recently on Sunday, and was also visited by Shorten on each of his three days in Sydney.
And while you’re about, note also the other new post below this one: episode three of Seat du Jour, covering the Melbourne seat of La Trobe.
I can vividly remember when social media became popular, young people being repeatedly warned about what they post on Facebook, as any prospective employer could access them when deciding whether to employ or not..
Creasy can only blame one person for what’s happened to him ..Creasy
Sick new car sales figures now out … sold 75,550 in April, down 8.9% on April last year. Worst April result since 2011 (when there were fewer drivers)
It’s just everybody waiting for EVs to be more widely available at a better price before they upgrade
Victoria says:
Friday, May 3, 2019 at 12:34 pm
It seems to be a work in progress, but ultimately, yes!
The Guardian blog
Mavis
Had Assange fronted an Australian court it is highly doubtful that on a charge of failing to appear, he would’ve been sentenced to gaol,
It cost 16 million pounds to keep an eye on him, that’s worth a couple of years in my estimation!.
I found Meher’s analysis this morning interesting. It indicates what a lot of people are thinking.
Labor’s tax changes have minimum affect on Super itself, which will remain an attractive investment. What Labor plans is cutting out what is effectively a handout of $1,000 per annum ($20 a week) for each $60,000 or so in shares you own. Beneficiaries of this handout are people with incomes below the income tax threshold. This would mainly affect retirees. They might have superannuation pensions of 30, 50, 100K per annum but this is not taxable. Likewise, they might have investment properties. If they’re wealthy, they might have fancy trust /company /offshore structures and so have low “taxable” incomes.
Labor have adjusted it so that anyone receiving a part pension is not affected.
But most voters think that Labor is imposing a new tax on superannuation, which is a LIE.
Brian Fisher headline (discredited by almost all experts) in yesterday’s West today being used in Liberal ads. Cosy isn’t it.
Shorten said by end of today regardless.
Bevan Shields:
Labor will sack embattled candidate Luke Creasey by the end of the day #auspol #ausvotes
Final 2-party preferred vote released for NSW election. Coalition 52.9%, Labor 47.1%, a swing to Labor of only 1.4%. Huge exhausted rate in some seats under optional preferential voting. 1 in 8 voters did not express a final preference for either major party. #nswpol
1934pc @ #402 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 12:41 pm
Yes, let the UK government throw good money after bad. It only costs another $35,000 pounds/year to keep tabs on him in jail. A veritable bargain!
3z @ #398 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 12:40 pm
Look it’s understandable that Labor partisans are disappointed and angry about Creasy but lashing out at everyone else won’t soothe the pain.
I just keep reminding myself that in the US, a person was elected despite being caught on camera bragging about grabbing genitals, and this is an old man too.
Man politics in our country is a joke.
‘What is franking?’I was speaking as Mr Average.
And yes, a tax refund on no tax paid is good. A ‘gift of public money’ is good.
But then many think well that can’t be right. I must be missing something.
It still needs to be explained how that happens in just a few words.
Man 1 says ‘I earned less than the tax free threshold and paid no tax.
Why can’t I have a tax refund as well?
Man 2 says (scratching his head) ..’gee, that’s a good question…well, because you didn’t pay tax?
Man 1 says, ‘Yeah, but….’
BB
I get what you are saying. As the allegation against Creasey includes porn sharing the context says stupidity instead of disrespect.
I think it’s likely the case or Labor would have dumped not defended him.
What this does highlight is the hypocrisy of the right.
Fans of breaching privacy.
Fans of hate.
See Larry Flint case for a US example of this.
My thoughts on Creasey being the candidate against Bandt in Melbourne.
Seriously, the ALP were going to run a 25 year old with no, or at least very limited life experience (not his fault) up against a candidate who has won the seat for 3 elections in a row.
Even without the social media posts he’s made, the ALP don’t seem to be taking winning that seat seriously.
““The starving and destitute on Newstart aren’t getting a fair go !” Well no, Rex, but Labor hasn’t been in gummint for the last 6 years has it?
(I’ve been a Greens voter for some years but jeez you and Peg are doing your best to drive me back into the ALP fold! Shorten Shorten whinge whinge blah blah yada yada – so boring!)”
Pegarex have been taking lessons in political persuasion from the Black Wiggle as he donned his Pepe Le Pew suit on his Greensplaining tour of Queensland. However they are no match for Pepe – he isn’t driving Greens voters back to Labor – he’s all in on driving regional Labor voters into the arms of the LNP! THAT’s how you do it Pegarex!
The young man has succumbed to the reality of election campaign politics.
It was obvious the MSM would continue to drip out more social media comments from this young man over coming days and the latest have been more personal and direct.
Time to go for the good of the party that has successfully positioned itself as the party for women.
Take away candidates with s44 issues, remove all candidates with any social media posts from 12 years down to today and who are you left with in future elections ?
The future pool of candidates will be smaller and smaller in coming years.
However, looking at this current campaign it was time for him to go.
Without the consent of the grabee. No big deal if he had been talking about how much he liked consensual genital fondling.
Meanwhile – – the NRA is in deep strife:
https://truthout.org/articles/the-national-rifle-association-is-in-extremely-deep-trouble/
Pauline & James will not be pleased – all those millions PHON will likely not now receive.
‘discredited by almost all experts’
And Labor’s out there on the front foor today tearing it apart….?
Dan Gulberry
29 years old
a r @ #391 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 12:35 pm
True but I’m sure I can’t remember my isp or password from 1995 much less 2010 and how do I delete all those snappy posts on usenet or what ever it was called 20 years ago when flame wars were all the go.
What is needed is a fool proof solution to having all your old postings from here there and anywhere deleted.It’s not going to happen though is it?
Rex
Do you think its acceptable to run a candidate who actually, physically assaulted a woman? Do you think its acceptable to run a candidate who was a member of an elite, men-only club for 40 years? Do you think its acceptable to run a candidate who raps about date rape ?
If these were Labor candidates, the Greens would be relentless.
Why won’t the Greens hold themselves to the same standards they demand of everyone else?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #414 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 12:46 pm
Juvenile name-calling is all you’ve got.
The practice of a low-altitude flyer.
And now we have John Alexander, known for past stupid comments, doubling down…
By Peter Hannam
May 3, 2019 — 11.47am
John Alexander, the sitting Liberal MP for Bennelong, has sought to downplay his comments that Australia’s climate policy priority in the Pacific should be helping people “move to higher ground” rather than curbing coal.
Mr Alexander told a forum at the Epping Uniting Church on Monday Fiji’s Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama recently asked Australia, “please stop burning coal, you know the water level’s just coming up and it’s threatening our communities”, according to audio obtained by the Herald and The Age.
Australia’s priority, though, should be assisting our neighbours to move “their settlements to higher ground”, he said. “I think we should turn our minds to that positive contribution to our region”.
“It’s very much like your house is on fire, your children are in the house – should you call the fire brigade and get the children out of the house?” Mr Alexander told the public event.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/move-to-higher-ground-liberal-mp-s-climate-advice-to-fijians-20190503-p51jpo.html
Relax ALP supporters. Keep the subject on Franking credits and Climate change. They are both vote winners for Labor.
I don’t think that there is a huge reservoir of sympathy among swinging voters for wealthy retirees who pay no tax but get an annual cheque from the ATO.
Climate change is a clear winner for Labor, the more the Coalition talks about it the better as everyone then asks what they are doing on climate change.
We have also seen peak Scomo. I think he now comes across as a blowhard that is losing the wind in his sails. He’s the used car salesman with a dodgy product to sell that is overdoing the hyperbole – we all know the type.
3z @ #421 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 12:49 pm
Why don’t you ask them ?
‘Seriously, the ALP were going to run a 25 year old with no, or at least very limited life experience ‘
Depends on the candidate.
Keating was only 27.
“I assure you we will go back to school the moment you start listening to science and give us a future. Is that really too much to ask?”
No, it is not too much to ask. If only all our politicians would pay close attention to what she and many other of our children are demanding.
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/if-our-planet-has-a-future-its-thanks-to-greta-thunberg/
For the ‘visuals’ for the non-engaged voters (the majority), Labor missed a trick yesterday. They could have fixed their own problem and today, in the lead-up to the leaders’ debate, would have been only about Jessica Whelan.
People who truly want Labor to win will sacrifice a lot – like Bill Hayden – to make it happen.
Grime
What we need is something like the EU data protection laws.
We should recognise the right to privacy is a human right.
I am sure we would have found out about the extremists in the LNP anyway.
The plonking judgementalism in some of the posts here regarding Creasy is sickening. You’d think the people writing them had never made a mistake in their lives.
But as far as I last heard Jesus Christ hasn’t made the second coming yet, so maybe they’re not as squeaky clean as they make out. What you do often find is that the biggest moral judgers are also the worst offenders… and by far the biggest and most emphatic haters.
If we’re going to insist that anyone who enters politics (or for that matter almost any field of employment) has a spotless soul and a pure tongue, no skidmarks in the dunny bowl of life, never a word or a thought out of place, then we’re in for some awfully boring – and I would suggest, imbalanced – times ahead from those ruling us.
Progressing from childhood to sainthood, without the messy stuff in between, the stuff we actually learn from, is a state of grace rarely achieved, except here in the PB Moral Laboratory, where all essences are double distilled and all thoughts unsullied by error or doubt.
Rex:
I’m asking you. Do you think it’s acceptable to run those candidates? If Luke Creasey has to go for FB posts, why is it OK for the Greens to stick by candidates who have done far far worse?
Well why the hell is he waiting to be sacked? If the writing is on the wall, just go!
“Juvenile name-calling is all you’ve got.
The practice of a low-altitude flyer.”
Ha. Faux outrage over an apt nickname given to two anonymous posters on a blog – one of which’s handle is a magical horse. If either of you actually used your real name, you might have a point. As you don’t and are mere “keyboard cowards” like the rest of us then you are just being petty and precious to deflect.
There is a wide gulf between talking about sex and being sexist. Young people talk about sex. Is that wrong?
The problem with the franking credits policy is that people who earn more than those affected (and so have a tax liability to reduce) still get them in full.
Everyone here talking about those who stand lose excess franking credits refund being entitled rich wankers neglect that anyone 10 times richer than those people isn’t affected by Labor’s policy at all. It’s a poor design, which preserves the benefit of franking credits for people with higher incomes, while removing a benefit for people with lower incomes.
If Labor were serious about not giving “top-end-of-town rent-seekers” a free ride, then they’d wind back the CGT discount, which taxes rent-seeking income at a fraction of the rate of taxes on wage income. Especially on housing, which should be treated as a basic need, not an investment class. The idea that CGT is halved for property investments held for one year and one day, on the grounds that such an investment is long-term and not speculative, is just nonsense.
The numbers on CGT reform would put the revenue from the the franking credits reforms in the shade, and it would be a much fairer way of getting rent-seekers to pay their fair share.
In any case, Labor should expect revenue from the franking credits reforms to be smaller than expected, as those spivs who *are* rorting the system by massaging their taxable income down to $19,000 for the refund will just massage it down to $29,000 (or whatever level needed to let their franking credits offset their income tax liability) rather than give up the benefit, and many of those without the excess, massageable income will simply sell their shares and move into some other form of investment if their income from share investments is significantly lowered.
[For what it’s worth, the phasing out the CGT discount that I’m proposing would cost me, personally, plenty as someone who’s inherited property that I’ll sell at some point to fund my retirement – but it’s the right thing to do, regardless.]
BB, regarding Creasey I imagine most of the posters here are more concerned about the realpolitik than the ethics of it.
3Z, you may have missed my reply to you late last night in the other thread so I’ll copy and paste it here…
***
“Firefox. What we see presently is Adam Bandt demanding a Labor candidate step down for Facebook posts.
But he also stands shoulder to shoulder with a man who thinks FGM should be practiced in this country (even if might personally feel it’s a bad thing) and another man who assaulted a woman on the floor of parliament.
Why won’t the Greens hold their own candidates to the same standard they demand of others?”
***
Creasey has admitted he did the wrong thing.
Burnside has stood by what he said because he didn’t say anything wrong.
The two cases could not be more different and the fact that you’re even trying to lump them in together screams of desperation. In fact, that’s exactly why this has happened in the first place.
The Liberals are in full on panic mode because they’re in severe danger of losing Kooyong. Their propaganda arm, the Murdoch press, has done what it always does and is making the Greens out to be something they’re not.
The fact that SOME Labor supporters have jumped on this is so revealing. It would appear they are becoming desperate too.
Very simply put, Burnside was making the valid point that if you ban forced FGM then you must also ban forced male genital mutilation too, which includes the act of circumcision, among other procedures. He made it crystal clear that he does not support any genital mutilation and a claim to the contrary is flat out false.
As for Bartlett – who by the way is still campaigning heavily despite just recently having his prostate removed because of cancer – what he did while he was in the Democrats was wrong. Absolutely no argument there. He was an alcoholic and he has undergone a personal journey to conquer his demons. HE STOOD DOWN and resigned as leader of the Democrats.
Creasey should follow Bartlett’s lead and sit this election out. He’s young and I’m sure he’ll have an opportunity to return to politics in the future, just as Bartlett has.
Well, BHP obviously thinks Labor are going to win the federal election, and if not well, they can screw the mine workers of Central Queensland happily anyway:
Russell Robertson
@RRobertson_ALP
BHP has signed a sneaky deal with nine unknown miners that could see pay and conditions cut for thousand of CQ mine workers. This is what happens when you’ve got an LNP government that backs multinationals over workers.
‘Union secretary said the BHP agreement was akin to effectively creating their own Labour Hire company.’
“Keating was only 27.”
25 actually. Born in February 1944, first elected in late 1969.
Rocket Rocket says:
Friday, May 3, 2019 at 12:52 pm
Why would Shorten want the debate to be about Whelan?
He wants to highlight and talk about Labor’s policies, not this sort of shit.
“Keating was only 27.”
25 actually. Born in February 1944, first elected in late 1969.
As a middle-aged, 40-something professional progressive who’s lived in Carlton and voted Labor all my adult life, who do I vote for now, given Creasey’s disendorsement?
I will NEVER vote Green, they were the ones who wrecked Rudd’s climate policy and gave the country Abbott.
I will NEVER vote LNP, even under a “moderate” like Hewson or Turnbull.
Don’t even think about the right wing micros.
Maybe Reason is running a candidate?
And it took a long time for Keating to evolve. Didn’t his first speech ramble on about stay at home mothers? He did evolve though. And good on him.
Am hearing that the LPDU and it’s SmearStralian outlet have more to come, skirmishes so far.
As a counter being held back, we may not have heard the last of The BeetRooter’s exploits.
And on The Greens scale of pearl clutching moral outrage, it seems as though a former heroin addict is fine by them as a Labor candidate (which it should be), but a sexist isn’t.
😗
You can continue to vote for Creasey if you choose. In the off chance he is elected he’ll probably support Labor mostly (or potentially could just return to the party). Otherwise, determine your preferences as you would have had he not been disendorsed, except putting your number 2 as number 1.
Sprocket
I was going to post on the John Alexander comments myself. Well at last he is not a climate skeptic! This will probably do his “good bloke” image a bit of harm though.
Also, assuming that he understands Australia’s east coast laps up to the same body of water that Fiji sits in, and it is rising, what does he suggest residents of all the coastal beach towns, and Gold Coast canal states do? Move inland? Who pays off their mortgages?
3z @ #431 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 12:56 pm
They’re legally eligible to run as far as I know. It’s up to the Greens party to decide whether they’re fit to represent them.