Happy trails: episode two

Another look at where the campaign has taken the two leaders, and what that might tell us about the state of play.

Click on the image at the bottom of the post and you will see an updated account of the electorates visited by the leaders during the campaign, more or less (there is an element of subjectivity as to what constitutes a visit). One of the salient points to emerge is the rather intensive focus on Tasmania, which remarkably played host to both leaders yesterday. Scott Morrison has spent three days over two visits – exactly equal to his record for Victoria, where he has targeted the five Liberal-held seats on margins of up to 6.4%, but not wasted effort on Dunkley, which is Liberal-held but notionally Labor. Bill Shorten’s visit to the state was likewise his second, but so far he’s spent two days in the state to Morrison’s three.

Western Australia also logged up some points this week, but this is largely due to the debate having been held there on Monday, and the practicality of hanging around afterwards given the distance involved. Nonetheless, it is notable that Morrison spent fully three days campaigning their compared with Shorten’s two, and that Morrison felt it worth his while to conduct a street walk in the electorate of Canning, situated well up the pendulum at 6.8%.

Bill Shorten is overdue for a visit to New South Wales, where he hasn’t been since he spent the first three full days of the campaign in Sydney. Nonetheless, the prize for the most targeted seat of the campaign so far would appear to be the Sydney seat of Reid, which has been visited three times by Scott Morrison, most recently on Sunday, and was also visited by Shorten on each of his three days in Sydney.

And while you’re about, note also the other new post below this one: episode three of Seat du Jour, covering the Melbourne seat of La Trobe.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Happy trails: episode two”

  1. How clever was Shorten in walking a step forward as Morrison moved towards him, getting him close enough to make the space invader comment work? Very well done.

  2. Barney in Phan Thiet @ #1247 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 9:31 pm

    Diogenes says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 9:55 pm

    Statistically you have to make allowances for the audience members who faked their own deaths during the debate to get out. That’s at least ten percent.

    And from the Murray interviews afterwards you would say that Labor voters are less keen to be seen on Sky than Liberal and undecideds. 🙂

    You are probably right about that. Galaxy provided the audience. It would be fairly easy to disguise one’s real politics and pretend to be an undecided. But some of the questions give it away. The religioss freedom lady accepted Morrison’s motherhood statement but pressed Shorten to answer her question (protection of religious speech) in more detail. Whatever her attempted gotcha was, being asked what she wanted to say that she felt she couldn’t caught her out. She went on about not being able to disagree with abortion without getting pushbacks (wtte) and that rugby player ( I forget his name). That gave Bill the opening to talk about the loss of civility in discussing opposing views, (hey Scomo!) and Bill said it was not ok to harass people going into women’s health clinics.

  3. I noticed that as well, Burgey.

    As Bart Simpson might have said, that’s the moment Shorten broke Morrison’s heart.


  4. @Tank9999
    Follow Follow @Tank9999
    More
    #PeoplesForum #LeadersDebate Credlin #Spaceinvader
    Even the #SkyNews Audience said Bill Shorten beat Morrison 43 to 41

    Imagine what a thrashing that would be in an unbiased setting

    & Paul Murray says
    How about we call it a draw?

    Reminds me of Monty Python’s Black Knight

  5. That religious freedom question at the start of the sky debate reminded me of a similar pivotal question at a debate between Andrews and Guy (a safe schools critic) in the Victorian election.

    At the time I thought, dangerous ground for Dan, but he stood his ground, didnt flinch and carefully explained the gov’s position. Similar response from Bill S tonight. But is Victoria Australia?

  6. Weekly Times headline…

    eople’s Forum: “You’re a classic space invader” Shorten tells Morrison
    Supplied video obtained may 3, 2019. In Brisbane Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten answer questions from one hundred non committed voters in Brisbane in a People’s Forum. The two leaders discuss the top income earners receiving tax cuts. Scott Morrison refers to Gladstone worker and asks Bill Shorten could he look the worker in the eye and tell him you are going to increase his taxes by 2 percent. “I’m just wondering,” Mr Morrison asks. Mr Shorten responds “you’re a classic space invader”. (AAP Video/Sky News) NO ARCHIVING AAP VIDEO BEYOND 48 HOUR NEWS USAGE

  7. “Why should parties who will never, ever form government be part of a leader’s debate?”

    Because, in the case of the Greens anyway, well over a million Australians vote for them. Not everyone is part of the two party establishment.

    “Maybe we could have a minor parties debate. Di Natale, Hanson and Palmer.”

    That’s waaaaay too unfair on Hanson and Palmer.

    “Di Natale can tell us how he’s committed to voting with the other two to block Labor’s climate change policy should be deem it insufficiently pure.”

    Haha! Nice try. If the Greens vote against a Labor climate policy it will be for the exact opposite reason as those two coal loving nuts. We will do what we must to protect the planet. The ball is in Shorten’s court anyway. He can either negotiate with the Greens or negotiate with he far right. Our door is open.

    Oh, welcome back by the way! 😛

  8. Rossmore

    Many people in rural areas do watch that WIN-SkyNews channel – hopefully it helped Labor a bit.

    Also noticed in The Weekly Times the sad story that they had interviewed Andrew Powell about farming and also his volunteering with the SES and Surf Life Saving just two days before he and his father Ross drowned while on a surf rescue mission off Port Campbell.

    https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/opinion/ed-gannon-andrew-and-ross-powell-have-left-a-legacy-to-treasure/news-story/5de2f91ec4af94f1581efcefcfae1dd2

    Could read this by searching the title

  9. Has it perhaps reached the point where the partisan journos are looking to retain a scrap of credibility? That would feel like something of a sea change in the campaign if so

  10. Well after a couple of delicious Tahbliks Marsennes , and an even better Sangiovese of unknown origin, I’d like show my hand after watching the two debates. Shorten won the undecided vote. Its just a question oh how big the majority I reckon.

  11. shiftaling

    Maybe. If Labor’s Sunday ‘launch’ is followed by two good polls that night and Tuesday morning, and if the massive prepoll numbers keep building, then by the next weekend many in the media may start talking about what Labor will do in office.

    I have a feeling that Morrison’s ‘launch’ six days out from Election Day will fall really flat. Journos love the smell of blood – they will be circling like vultures to see how Abbott, Dutton, Joyce etc react to every bit of Morrison’s speech. Looking for clues to post-election challengers.

  12. Tactical error for Morrison to do launch six days out, especially in this new era of prepoll voting .

    It reminds me of Australia having Cathy Freeman running the last leg of 4×400 relay. All over by the time she got the baton. In USA they know from College Track ‘meets’ that you put maybe your best runner first – to try and get ahead of all the chaotic baton changes in 4×400 races, especially when you are not expected to win – you need something special to maybe give your team a boost.

  13. You’d think Morrison et al would have come up with a policy or two, you know just to make it appear like they are doing something. If they had of matched the ALP policy on negative gearing or CGT it would have at least given them some money for a good policy or 2.

  14. Plenty of hyperbowl here tonight about Shorten easily winning the debate. On balance I think the audience got it right ……. he did do a bit better than Morrison, but the PM is an expert bullshit artist and lies by natural instinct.

    He is totally a policy free zone but nevertheless has campaigned better than expected, aided by an uncritical press and a hefty proportion of voters who use subjective impression rather than objective analysis to guide their thinking. The lady who chose him because he spoke nicely is an example.

    No bed wetting here, Labor will probably win a safe majority IMHO. But in the end, it won’t be won till it is actually won.

  15. Rocket Rocket @ #1267 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 10:58 pm

    Tactical error for Morrison to do launch six days out, especially in this new era of prepoll voting .

    It reminds me of Australia having Cathy Freeman running the last leg of 4×400 relay. All over by the time she got the baton. In USA they know from College Track ‘meets’ that you put maybe your best runner first – to try and get ahead of all the chaotic baton changes in 4×400 races.

    It would only be a tactical error to launch six days out if you had policies. On the other hand, if you wanted to limit policy discussion…

  16. Our great ALP are heading for a really really really big majority and Morrison should run butt naked around Shark Park on Sunday…..

  17. Firefox:

    If the Greens, once again, vote with the Coalition against Labor’s climate policy they will be voting with the Coalition.

    No ifs. No buts.

    They will be voting with the Coalition to continue the Coalition’s policy of inaction. No matter how they might try to dress it up in their language of sanctimonious purity.

    The Greens cannot be trusted on climate change.

  18. Bill shorten is the bully and our great LNP will go on to win the May 18 election by a big majority….

    Scott Morrison will be PM for another three year and shorten will resign as labor leader and will leave parliament

  19. I thought Morrison sounded a bit desperate a couple of times when Shorten had enquired about the particulars of a questioner and offered to speak to them afterwards.

    Morrison immediately jumped in saying wtte, I want to help too.

    Also at the end he mentioned these meetings as if they were all his idea.

  20. When Labor is pronounced victorious at 7.04 pm on Saturday 18th of May by Antony Green Esq., the highlight will be watching Tory bed wetters crying into their polenta & prosciutto canapes and 1996 Dom Perignon Rose Gold Methuselah wailing “the socialists will destroy Australia”. The schadenfreude will be delicious.
    John Setka is coming to get you, Wayne. CFMEU heavies will haunt your dreams forever.

  21. beth says:
    Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 12:17 am

    When Labor is pronounced victorious at 7.04 pm on Saturday 18th of May by Antony Green Esq., the highlight will be watching Tory bed wetters crying into their polenta & prosciutto canapes and 1996 Dom Perignon Rose Gold Methuselah wailing “the socialists will destroy Australia”. The schadenfreude will be delicious.
    John Setka is coming to get you, Wayne. CFMEU heavies will haunt your dreams forever.

    If that happens, I doubt many will be in camera range. 🙂

  22. Joined in the Climate Action protest this morning with my daughter outside Jane Prentice’s office in Ryan. Local stop Adani action group plus local school kids plus greens and other concerned citizens. 60-70 protesters in all. Lots of beeps and smiling waves. 73% of locals surveyed agree with stopping Adani. Vibe may have gotten back to our Premier who is the only politician with the balls to do something – good effort for a female premier. Adani chief grub foaming at the mouth late today on local radio because of Qld government finch management plan rejection. Then Bill tearing Scrot up tonight. A good day to be a progressive.

  23. “If the Greens, once again, vote with the Coalition against Labor’s climate policy they will be voting with the Coalition”

    Fun Fact #1: The ALP vote with the Coalition far more than the Greens do.

    Fun Fact #2: The Greens voted against the CPRS precisely because the ALP had spent all of 2009 making it a Labor-Liberal bill.

  24. Libs talking about leadership. Why?

    .@ScottMorrisonMP has secured a major statement of support from one-time rival @PeterDutton_MP to ensure the Prime Minister keeps his position as @LiberalAus Party leader whether he wins or loses the Federal election. – @smh, @theage

  25. Bill Shorten does not stand a chance of being PM of this great country of ours as he is a bully and will spend like a drunken sailor and the costings will show this next week

  26. Wayne says:
    Saturday, May 4, 2019 at 12:36 am

    Bill Shorten does not stand a chance of being PM of this great country of ours as he is a bully and will spend like a drunken sailor and the costings will show this next week

    So that’s why the deficit has doubled.

  27. “But I will not have comparisons of the new system to first-past-the-post or Group Ticket Voting, both of which are not even fit to be considered voting systems.”

    Go hard, KB 😉

  28. Rocket, as I understand it politicians Get funding for travel etc until the campaign launch. That’s why the libs are waiting so long

  29. ‘How clever was Shorten in walking a step forward as Morrison moved towards him, getting him close enough to make the space invader comment work? Very well done.’

    Your not related to Erich von Daniken by any chance, are you Burgy?

  30. Mogotrone @ #555 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 2:10 pm

    Regarding the conflation of FGM with male circumcision. Let us be very clear . FMG is the cutting of the clitoris which is specifically done to cause women loss of sexual gratification. This could be conflated with a practice of cutting of the head of the penis to have a similar effect . Male circumstance is the cutting of a bit of skin. I am sure most bludgers get this . For those who don’t cross your legs and think about it.

    And, let us not forget who’s bit of skin it is, it is not the mother’s or the father’s or the doctor’s or society’s, it is the little boy’s, later to be man’s bit of skin. If that boy/man wishes to have that bit of skin removed then he should decide is not for someone else decide to remove a healthy ‘bit of skin’.

    And the same for any modifications to a little girl’s body which are not for definite health reasons and FGM is definitely not for health reasons it is for patriarchal domination of females.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *