Happy trails: episode two

Another look at where the campaign has taken the two leaders, and what that might tell us about the state of play.

Click on the image at the bottom of the post and you will see an updated account of the electorates visited by the leaders during the campaign, more or less (there is an element of subjectivity as to what constitutes a visit). One of the salient points to emerge is the rather intensive focus on Tasmania, which remarkably played host to both leaders yesterday. Scott Morrison has spent three days over two visits – exactly equal to his record for Victoria, where he has targeted the five Liberal-held seats on margins of up to 6.4%, but not wasted effort on Dunkley, which is Liberal-held but notionally Labor. Bill Shorten’s visit to the state was likewise his second, but so far he’s spent two days in the state to Morrison’s three.

Western Australia also logged up some points this week, but this is largely due to the debate having been held there on Monday, and the practicality of hanging around afterwards given the distance involved. Nonetheless, it is notable that Morrison spent fully three days campaigning their compared with Shorten’s two, and that Morrison felt it worth his while to conduct a street walk in the electorate of Canning, situated well up the pendulum at 6.8%.

Bill Shorten is overdue for a visit to New South Wales, where he hasn’t been since he spent the first three full days of the campaign in Sydney. Nonetheless, the prize for the most targeted seat of the campaign so far would appear to be the Sydney seat of Reid, which has been visited three times by Scott Morrison, most recently on Sunday, and was also visited by Shorten on each of his three days in Sydney.

And while you’re about, note also the other new post below this one: episode three of Seat du Jour, covering the Melbourne seat of La Trobe.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Happy trails: episode two”

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  2. 8 hours of Katter, Hanson, McCormack, Di Natale and Palmer trying to talk leader sense to each other?

    It’s a thought.

  4. Anyone would think the supplicating mendicant pleading for the further debate was in the opposition, not the Prime Minister!

    Behave like a man, you grovelling reptile!

  10. Shorten doesn’t have to dance to Morrison’s tune. He doesn’t need an extra debate. Morrison is the one who needs it -although after the first two he might be having second thoughts.

  12. David Crowe has written his report of the debate, and yes, the Space Invader is the hook:

    ‘You’re a space invader’: Bill Shorten and Scott Morrison clash in feisty debate

    The competing values of two aspiring leaders were made clear in the first minutes of their election debate on Friday night when they began a long tangle over tax.

    Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten started the debate on tax and never really escaped the subject during their argument in a forum with voters in Brisbane.

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/you-re-a-space-invader-bill-shorten-and-scott-morrison-clash-in-feisty-debate-20190503-p51jyp.html

  13. I’m glad Shorten is doing the launch on Sunday. So many have made up their minds, the final push with a few more policies that will get a good airing two weeks out is good timing methinks.

  14. Labor’s campaign launch is in Brisbane on Sunday. The Libs are having theirs the following week, but location is unknown. I’m guessing Sydney.

  15. Why should parties who will never, ever form government be part of a leader’s debate?

    Maybe we could have a minor parties debate. Di Natale, Hanson and Palmer.

    Di Natale can tell us how he’s committed to voting with the other two to block Labor’s climate change policy should be deem it insufficiently pure.

  16. Highlight of today’s pre-polling stint: I handed a HTV to a middle-aged female voter. Liberal volunteer walked up to offer one of theirs. “Not likely, I’m not bloody voting for him” says the woman pointing to Morrison’s smirking face on an a-frame. Getting the distinct impression ScoMo has pissed people off big-time.

  17. jenauthor, Fess

    Yes I think two weeks is good – hopefully then some nice polling numbers Sunday night and Tuesday morning. Lots and lots of pre-poll voters – that ‘6 days out’ campaign launch is so ‘early 21st century’!

  21. Sorry to interrupt with some basic statistical analysis, but has anyone figured out how they got to the percentages in that vote? There can’t be half people in a room of 109, were there preferences? Were votes discounted to reflect informal? Did they just take votes off the pile and how did they do that? On basic numbers 43 percent to Shorten and 41 to Morrison turn out to be 46.87 votes for Shorten and 44.69 Morrison. Even the undecided has an extra bit of person attached to it. Very odd.

  22. Maybe we could have a minor parties debate. Di Natale, Hanson and Palmer.

    That’s a great idea, plus all three of them are either Senators or campaigning to be elected to the Senate.

  24. Firefox says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 8:53 pm

    Hahahahaha Murray claims the left use fear to win votes. Does “stop the boats” ring a bell, Paul? “Carbon tax”? Oh and how can we forget about “weapons of mass destruction”? Twit. The Coalition run fear campaigns all the time!

    He’s right.

    Things have become very polarised with the Libs pushing further right.

    We on the Left fear what they want, while on the Right they fear a progressive agenda.

  25. Izzy

    Thanks for pointing this out – I didn’t realise they were giving percentages – I thought that was raw numbers but they add to 100 not 109. So-

    47/109 = 0.4312 -> 43%
    45/109 = 0.4128 -> 41%
    17/109 = 0.156 -> 16%

  27. Izzy says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 9:41 pm
    Sorry to interrupt with some basic statistical analysis, but has anyone figured out how they got to the percentages in that vote? There can’t be half people in a room of 109, were there preferences? Were votes discounted to reflect informal? Did they just take votes off the pile and how did they do that? On basic numbers 43 percent to Shorten and 41 to Morrison turn out to be 46.87 votes for Shorten and 44.69 Morrison. Even the undecided has an extra bit of person attached to it. Very odd.

    Perhaps they calculated the Shorten-Morrison 2PP by applying Newspoll’s PHON/Palmer adjustment.

  29. @rocket rocket. Split that undecided to Shorten 9-8 and we get 56-53.

    Undecided going heavily to Labor based on anecdotal and internal polling so that’s conservative.

  31. sprocket_ says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 9:10 pm

    Darn

    Nothing agreed. Labor offered midday at Press Club, Liberals insisting on prime time.

    Morrison must enjoy public humiliation.

  32. Did anyone watch the Deep Water documentary on Viceland? It makes the NSW police (among other things) look really bad.

  34. Morrison looked desperate with his space invader routine – Shorten just nailed him and the audience laughed.

    You’d never have guessed the space invader was the current PM.

  35. The media focus on the ‘horse race’ and ‘gotcha’ moments. So reporting of this debate will be

    1. Shorten won (a win is a win)*
    2. “Space Invader” moment

    * I for one would have loved an extremely narrow St.Kilda win in the 2010 AFL Grand Final, like in 1966!
    * AFL update – Collingwood cruising 83-43 v Port Adelaide at 3/4 time after 48-3 opening quarter
    * NRL update – Cowboys 28-14 Titans, Sharks 20-18 Storm
    * A-League update – Melbourne Victory 3-1 Wellington

  36. Did anyone else notice how quickly Morrison back away stage right when Shorten stood up to him and the audience laughed?

  37. Statistically you have to make allowances for the audience members who faked their own deaths during the debate to get out. That’s at least ten percent.

  41. Dio

    Yes I thought they did say raw numbers so maybe 9 abstained/left/passed away?

    Just checked the Guardian – they gave percentages so maybe 47/45/17 was right.

  46. “Hahahahaha Murray claims the left use fear to win votes. Does “stop the boats” ring a bell, Paul? “Carbon tax”? Oh and how can we forget about “weapons of mass destruction”? Twit. The Coalition run fear campaigns all the time!”

    It’s what the propaganda handbook says. Accuse your opponent of what you are doing. It helps when your mates control most of the megaphones.

  47. Diogenes says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 9:55 pm

    Statistically you have to make allowances for the audience members who faked their own deaths during the debate to get out. That’s at least ten percent.

    And from the Murray interviews afterwards you would say that Labor voters are less keen to be seen on Sky than Liberal and undecideds. 🙂

  49. Just watched the Speer tax question again… Scott went up in flames, confusion on confusion.
    It was so good of Bill to offer to help him out.

    Liberal shovels have the longest handles.

  50. Puffy, you will be able to tell your great, great grandchildren that you were there when Shorten plunged the shank, and twisted it.

    (Probably for the third time, but still.)

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