Happy trails: episode two

Another look at where the campaign has taken the two leaders, and what that might tell us about the state of play.

Click on the image at the bottom of the post and you will see an updated account of the electorates visited by the leaders during the campaign, more or less (there is an element of subjectivity as to what constitutes a visit). One of the salient points to emerge is the rather intensive focus on Tasmania, which remarkably played host to both leaders yesterday. Scott Morrison has spent three days over two visits – exactly equal to his record for Victoria, where he has targeted the five Liberal-held seats on margins of up to 6.4%, but not wasted effort on Dunkley, which is Liberal-held but notionally Labor. Bill Shorten’s visit to the state was likewise his second, but so far he’s spent two days in the state to Morrison’s three.

Western Australia also logged up some points this week, but this is largely due to the debate having been held there on Monday, and the practicality of hanging around afterwards given the distance involved. Nonetheless, it is notable that Morrison spent fully three days campaigning their compared with Shorten’s two, and that Morrison felt it worth his while to conduct a street walk in the electorate of Canning, situated well up the pendulum at 6.8%.

Bill Shorten is overdue for a visit to New South Wales, where he hasn’t been since he spent the first three full days of the campaign in Sydney. Nonetheless, the prize for the most targeted seat of the campaign so far would appear to be the Sydney seat of Reid, which has been visited three times by Scott Morrison, most recently on Sunday, and was also visited by Shorten on each of his three days in Sydney.

And while you’re about, note also the other new post below this one: episode three of Seat du Jour, covering the Melbourne seat of La Trobe.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Happy trails: episode two”

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  1. “What is it you feel that you can’t say now?”

    I recall asking someone at the height of the 18C confected ‘crisis’ who thought this was a massive massive issue – “Which abusive racial term do you want to use but can’t under the current legislation?”

    … crickets

  2. Rocket Rocket @ #1133 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 8:19 pm

    1892CFC pica nath

    A good night for Shorten then.

    I have no personal grudge against Cronulla-Sutherland, but it will be interesting to see how they go tonight v Melbourne Storm – currently 6-6.

    I have a grudge against both.
    They’re salary cap cheating, TPA rorting, wrestling scum vs salary cap cheating, drug taking scum.
    I hope shark park and all their fans sink into the swamp around their ground.

  3. “What does he do, request more debates to try and even the score?”…. No, he will request a handicap at the next debate… 🙂

  4. Why do so many voters declare themselves swinging voters when they clearly are not.

    Galaxy provided the audience of “undecideds”.

    But so many questioners gave themselves away by asking pointed questions of Shorten which were clearly based on anti Labor policy sentiment.

  5. What a cracker though! Space Invader!!
    If this is all that comes out of tonight for Shorten, that will be enough.
    If I have seen the Latham handshake once, I have seen it a 100 times – always with the sub-plot of “This is where Latham lost it”………………….the MSM then, just as Labor unfriendly as it is today, seized upon this and made hay with it, sufficient to make Latham look like some kind of hoodlum………..
    I hope this aggressive and over-bearing attempt by Morrison to physically intimidate Shorten gets the same treatment as the Latham handshake…………..I will not hold my breath however.

  6. From the Brisbane Times

    That was when Scott Morrison came up very close to Bill Shorten during a heated debate about taxes and Shorten remarked: “You’re a classic space invader.”

    David Speers says he’s not convinced it was a “Mark Latham moment”, as I’ve written about below, while Paul Murray says the result of the audience vote will determine how the moment is interpreted.

    So I wonder what Paul Murray will say? That Shorten won because of that moment, or that Shorten would have won by more without that moment? Either way, not a pretty result for Morrison!

  7. “I think a good leaders debate should be a full day from 8 am – 8 pm ,with the leaders of Labor,Greens,liberal and National partys”

    Absolutely. I remember watching a debate in the last UK election where they were all there. May (actually I think she may have sent someone in her place), Corbyn, Lucas (Greens), UKIP, etc… All on the stage at once. It’s far more representive of democracy.

  8. Didn’t watch but I like what I’m reading here.
    Currently victory trolling my tory brother in law.

    Such fun.

  9. Good point. Lol!

    James Pinnell
    @JamesPinnell
    Morrison can’t even win a News Corp debate.
    8:07 PM · May 3, 2019 · Twitter for iPhone

  10. Jordan:
    “Heavy money going on Labor in Betfair:
    ALP – $1.22 (was $1.27)
    Coalition – $4.90 (was $4.60)”

    Yep, odds going up again for the Coalition across various betting agencies…. Bad news for ScuMo and his gang….

  11. The Aus headline is hilarious – “shorten complains about unfair treatment”

    At least they’re transparent

  12. Oh, and good old ABC, which followed this debate on-line, have again, like the debate in Perth, been disinclined to put up the “score”. I just wonder if this would have been the case if Shorten had been behind? No, I am being much to cynical again…………………just ABC policy to be even-handed and not be influenced or be an influencer…………………………Thank you Ita…………………..

  13. Headline in The Australian

    The leaders’ debate verdict

    Bill Shorten got the audience vote, but now our experts weigh in on how the leaders fared in the second debate.

    Can we bet on what result they come up with? Could be an easy way to a fortune.

  14. “Two debates two wins for Shorten. Good week.”

    No-one in the ALP campaign has too much to complain about this week. The melb candidate dropping out not of consequence

  15. I think a good leaders debate should be a full day from 8 am – 8 pm ,with the leaders of Labor,Greens,liberal and National partys

    Totally. They should also do it on a regular basis, maybe also vote on important issues. Maybe, because the load might be a bit too much for just the leaders, each party can have a team – and the number of people in each team represented could be determined by a poll of the population…

  16. I think I’ve done me dough!

    Paul Kelly: …Scott Morrison had the best of the argument until the 45 minute mark when he stumbled on tax cuts for the better-off….Shorten was on top at the end.

    Troy Bramston:…Morrison was sharper and his attacks were more effective, which gave
    him a narrow victory over Shorten

    Caroline Overington:
    Shorten won easily

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/leaders-debate-verdict/news-story/616c7f98a5e150f779d4c8a706fda23b

    could see this by searching for that simple three word title

  17. Hahahahaha Murray claims the left use fear to win votes. Does “stop the boats” ring a bell, Paul? “Carbon tax”? Oh and how can we forget about “weapons of mass destruction”? Twit. The Coalition run fear campaigns all the time!

  18. I am very happy with Bill’s performance in the debate. It was fun watching him play that trout on the line. Space Invader. Wow. that will ring a bell with those who played that game at the dawn of the computer age. My kids were very good at it.

  19. Bill on QANDA monday. If ScoMo does an appearance it will be what, 4 days out from the election?

    Consequences of a fwark up for ScoMo potentially much greater as it would get run on the MSM in those last days.

    ALP strategists have so far played the timing pretty well. And i am wondering what Shorten will have for policy /promises announcements at the sunday campaign launch?? If they have anything on NewStart that may be the time. 🙂

  20. The sad bit for the “experts” at The Australian, is their expertise is not worth one more vote than that of Joe/Josephine Public living in Pachiwallock, Perth, or Penrith…………….What is more, Joe and Josephine probably don’t care or probably do not read the pontifications of these so-called experts.

  21. The Australian gave it to Shorten by 2 journos to 1 Troy “Albo’s made a speech, it’s on this time, honest” Branston giving it to Morrison and Simon Benson calling it a draw through salty tears. Kelly and Overington gritting teeth to give it Shorten.

  22. Those wondering how many watched the debate, it doesn’t really matter the number which will be dwarfed by the footy.

    All the MSM, both parties, candidates and their teams, volunteers – they would have all seen with their own eyes that Shorten has it over Scotty.

    Sorry, no third debate – Bill has prior commitments

  23. “It was fun watching him play that trout on the line. Space Invader. ”

    Puff, i think Bill had more fun doing it. 🙂

  24. sprocket_ says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 9:03 pm
    Those wondering how many watched the debate, it doesn’t really matter the number which will be dwarfed by the footy.

    All the MSM, both parties, candidates and their teams, volunteers – they would have all seen with their own eyes that Shorten has it over Scotty.

    Sorry, no third debate – Bill has prior commitments

    I thought it had already been agreed.

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