Happy trails: episode two

Another look at where the campaign has taken the two leaders, and what that might tell us about the state of play.

Click on the image at the bottom of the post and you will see an updated account of the electorates visited by the leaders during the campaign, more or less (there is an element of subjectivity as to what constitutes a visit). One of the salient points to emerge is the rather intensive focus on Tasmania, which remarkably played host to both leaders yesterday. Scott Morrison has spent three days over two visits – exactly equal to his record for Victoria, where he has targeted the five Liberal-held seats on margins of up to 6.4%, but not wasted effort on Dunkley, which is Liberal-held but notionally Labor. Bill Shorten’s visit to the state was likewise his second, but so far he’s spent two days in the state to Morrison’s three.

Western Australia also logged up some points this week, but this is largely due to the debate having been held there on Monday, and the practicality of hanging around afterwards given the distance involved. Nonetheless, it is notable that Morrison spent fully three days campaigning their compared with Shorten’s two, and that Morrison felt it worth his while to conduct a street walk in the electorate of Canning, situated well up the pendulum at 6.8%.

Bill Shorten is overdue for a visit to New South Wales, where he hasn’t been since he spent the first three full days of the campaign in Sydney. Nonetheless, the prize for the most targeted seat of the campaign so far would appear to be the Sydney seat of Reid, which has been visited three times by Scott Morrison, most recently on Sunday, and was also visited by Shorten on each of his three days in Sydney.

And while you’re about, note also the other new post below this one: episode three of Seat du Jour, covering the Melbourne seat of La Trobe.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Happy trails: episode two”

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  1. It’s clear the Greens give their candidates the benefit of the doubt while the ALP chuck theirs out at the first sight of a bit of negative MSM.

  2. PR is everything

    Adani have, in my opinion, created a PR problem for themselves by calling out the Queensland government over the approval – which is a process

    Simply, to retain PR, Adani should have responded that they are taking every step to adhere to the Contractual protocols that surround the progressing of this project

    It is THEIR responsibility to adhere – and NOT the responsibility of the Queensland government (which relies on advice)

  3. Steve 777:

    16 15 more days of disinformation and smear from the Noise Machine

    After that, another 3 more years of disinformation and smear, then another 3 years…

  4. For those wondering about my comments regarding privacy. I remind you of Murdoch history. HackGate.

    The tactics of that mob is the worst hypocrisy. Just ask Liverpool Football Club Fans If HackGate is not enough to convince you.

  5. “It’s just everybody waiting for EVs to be more widely available at a better price before they upgrade”

    thats definitely me!

  6. There is a wide gulf between talking about sex and being sexist. Young people talk about sex. Is that wrong?

    I’ve heard young people “do” sex too, and some even take their pajamas off because it feels better.

    I’ve only ever read such shocking stuff in the media, and it’s been said they’re not always forthright with either the truth or their own morals.

    What we have seen today is a bunch of wowsers, join up with the moral scum of society – the media – to pass judgement in the middle of a potentially epoch-changing political campaign on the tweets of a young man made 7 years ago, which – apart from the thousands, if not millions of those who couldn’t give a stuff – may or may not affect the voting intentions of about three people in two weeks’ time.

  7. After the destruction of Labor’s candidate in Melbourne, the Greens are going to be hard put to maintain that they don’t have a dirt unit like everyone else.

  8. Barney

    I am at work with many mostly disengaged voters. I doubt any of them will watch the debate. But another day of news (first story on TV nightly news) about yet another Liberal candidate being disendorsed for racism etc does get noticed and maybe has some effect. It would be better for Labor if this effect was undiluted.

    On another matter – it is interesting that several people have told me that they have pre-poll voted so that they are ‘immune’ to the process from now on for the last two weeks.

  9. shiftaling @ #436 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 12:58 pm

    BB, regarding Creasey I imagine most of the posters here are more concerned about the realpolitik than the ethics of it.

    Yeah, that. The political calculus makes it obvious that it’s better if he goes. That has nothing to do with whether or not he should go, in principle.

  10. Firefox:

    And I will directly quote Julian Burnside again:

    ““I would say at a pragmatic level, that if FGM is tolerated without being embraced, it may be that that will induce people to have it performed in more hygienic circumstances less likely to lead to medical consequences than will be the case if it is done despite the prohibition and therefore done in more difficult circumstances.”

    Can you imagine the howls of outrage from the Greens if a Labor candidate said something so disgusting – made even worse by using the lame “out of context” defence? Add this to his 40 year membership of sexist, racst club, to his defence of Bill Leak and now also to emerging evidence that this incredibly wealthy man has been profiting off unpaid internships.

    He must be sacked.

    As for Bartlett, give me a break. He did stand down as leader, for one whole month. What a lightning fast personal journey that was. He remained a Senator until 2008 and was already running for the Greens in 2009.

    Again, if he was Labor candidate the Greens would be calling for his head. And rightly so.

  11. I wish 3z would stop with the Burnside attacks on FMG. He’s just cleaving to a disgusting liberal attack being run by the Rupeverse.

    There has been a live legal issue in Australia for a number as to whether the form of “female circumcision” as practiced by some Islamic migrant communities falls within the definition of FMG. Recently the NSW Court of Criminal Appeal ruled that the practice of Cutna (or Kutna or Qutna) does not and therefore cannot be prosecuted under anti NSW’s FMG laws. In short summary Cutna involves the ritualised nicking of the labia of an infant. Usually only the epidermis is cut. Sometimes both layers of skin are penetrated. Subsequent medical examinations of the infant often cannot detect the procedure because of the healing power of that part of the infants body.

    Regardless of what one thinks of that practice, it is a lesser procedure than male circumcision. Burnside’s comments have to be viewed in that context. For the life of me, I can’t see why he should be criticised, let alone pilloried for them. Now his 40 year membership of the Savage Club. That’s a different kettle of fish. IMO.

  12. “I will NEVER vote Green, they were the ones who wrecked Rudd’s climate policy and gave the country Abbott.”

    That’s just so wrong. Rudd wrecked his own policy by trying to pass it with the Coalition’s help and refusing to negotiate with the Greens. Labor gifted power to Abbott by spending three years engaged in the Rudd vs Gillard civil war. It’s beyond ridiculous to blame the Greens for that.

  13. Seems SHY can have a press conference criticising Liberal environment policy without bagging Labor at the same time. Some PB’s should take note

  14. Bushfire Bill @ #456 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 1:11 pm

    There is a wide gulf between talking about sex and being sexist. Young people talk about sex. Is that wrong?

    I’ve heard young people “do” sex too, and some even take their pajamas off.

    I’ve only ever read such shocking stuff in the media, and it’s been said they’re not always forthright with either the truth or their own morals.

    But what we have seen today is a bunch of wowsers, join up with the moral scum of society – the media – to pass judgement in the middle of a potentially epoch-changing political campaign on the tweets of a young man made 7 years ago, which – apart from the thousands, if not millions of those who couldn’t give a stuff – may or may not affect the voting intentions of about three people in two weeks’ time.

    They got rid of the Spanish Inquisition and upgraded it with Twitter!

  15. Actually people of all ages talk about sex and “do ” sex, sometimes even with people they are married to.

  16. Regarding Creasey, I take Bill’s point that it is an absurdely high standard to judge someone yearslater for something they did when 22. Abbott for one could have forgotten about a political carer if that were the case.

    But it is becoming a distraction, and an excuse for the coalition to say, “look over there, and please ignore our lack of climate policy, corruption and fake surplus figures”. So I think he must withdraw. With a mea culpa at the start next time, I think he could run again. From this point, Bandt will not lose anyway.

  17. “That’s just so wrong. Rudd wrecked his own policy by trying to pass it with the Coalition’s help and refusing to negotiate with the Greens. Labor gifted power to Abbott by spending three years engaged in the Rudd vs Gillard civil war. It’s beyond ridiculous to blame the Greens for that.”

    You are much better when you are not a dishonest shill.

    Once again:

    1. Labor + Greens could not pass anything in 2008-10.

    2. Greens ‘bottom line’ was unacceptable to any other potential negotiating partner. So there position was a no go.

    3. In November – December 2009 there was a window for Labor + Greens + 2 renegade LNP senators to vote in the CRPS and get it done. The Greens blew it.

    4. In March 2011 Gillard and their Greens blew the government apart with their ETS surprise. There was no GRG war at that time. But the polls clearly showed the collapse following the announcement of this surprise. To pretend otherwise is a lie. Those polls never recovered and in fact were the reason why we had RGR 2.0 and 3.0

  18. Ho Lier Than-Thau @ #441 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 1:02 pm

    As a middle-aged, 40-something professional progressive who’s lived in Carlton and voted Labor all my adult life, who do I vote for now, given Creasey’s disendorsement?
    I will NEVER vote Green, they were the ones who wrecked Rudd’s climate policy and gave the country Abbott.
    I will NEVER vote LNP, even under a “moderate” like Hewson or Turnbull.
    Don’t even think about the right wing micros.
    Maybe Reason is running a candidate?

    Good post and I was wondering the same, but I am going to stick with Labor as we need a party with a workable majority to try and repair some of the damage done by the LNP NATs

  19. Andrew_Earlwood:

    “I wish 3z would stop with the Burnside attacks on FMG…”

    I still maintain what he said was deplorable and the “taken out of context” defence is lame and false, but I can instead focus on the many, many other reasons the Greens must sack Julian Burnside if they are to have any credibility. For example:

    Julian Burnside

    Verified account

    @JulianBurnside
    Follow Follow @JulianBurnside
    More
    #qanda Prostitution affects all women because it affects the way men regard women

    5:36 AM – 1 Sep 2014

    *
    That’s right ladies, what’s most important is what men think about you.

  20. It’s a little odd people are arguing for the sacking of people who might assist with the defeat of a Coalition Government.

  21. “Good post and I was wondering the same, but I am going to stick with Labor as we need a party with a workable majority to try and repair some of the damage done by the LNP NATs”

    Why would you stick with Labor? Even if the disendorsed candidate wins, they’d be an independent, not an ALP MP. But yes, in the Senate, sticking with Labor makes sense.

  22. Rex Douglas @ #470 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 1:19 pm

    ajm @ #457 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 1:11 pm

    After the destruction of Labor’s candidate in Melbourne, the Greens are going to be hard put to maintain that they don’t have a dirt unit like everyone else.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Does that mean if you claim to be highly moral in other respects, it’s OK to attack other people’s sexual morals?

    Exactly the line taken by right wing religious nut jobs.

  23. “I would say at a pragmatic level, that if FGM is tolerated without being embraced, it may be that that will induce people to have it performed in more hygienic circumstances less likely to lead to medical consequences than will be the case if it is done despite the prohibition and therefore done in more difficult circumstances”

    ***

    This is no different to the issue of abortion. If such a procedure is to be carried out, it should always be done
    safely and hygienically, regardless of it’s legality.

    Again, you’re totally misrepresenting Burnside in a blatant attempt to defame him. It’s pathetic.

  24. Rudd wrecked his own policy by trying to pass it with the Coalition’s help and refusing to negotiate with the Greens.

    Until the Coalition can be brought on side in the Climate debate, agreement with a fringe group of protest voters will be at best tempirsry and most likely meaningless.

    In one of the biggest and most cynical hissy fits in political history, in 2009 the Greens actually voted AGAINST action on Clinate Change. The proportion of their vote at general electiobs has remained virtually unchanged ever since.

    You’d think the Greens would take the hint.

  25. JP says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 12:57 pm

    The problem with the franking credits policy is that people who earn more than those affected (and so have a tax liability to reduce) still get them in full.

    No one is forcing people to invest in companies that offer franked dividends.

    At the moment it’s attractive to do so because you get an extra handout from the Government.

    There are many ways to invest your money and you should choose the ways that suit you.

    If the franked credit rebate is worthless to someone who pays no tax, then they need to assess whether it’s the best way to invest their money.

    Originally, franked dividends had no such attraction to people with no tax liability, it was only Costello’s changes that made them attractive.

  26. Firefox @ #463 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 1:14 pm

    “I will NEVER vote Green, they were the ones who wrecked Rudd’s climate policy and gave the country Abbott.”

    That’s just so wrong. Rudd wrecked his own policy by trying to pass it with the Coalition’s help and refusing to negotiate with the Greens. Labor gifted power to Abbott by spending three years engaged in the Rudd vs Gillard civil war. It’s beyond ridiculous to blame the Greens for that.

    Seems Shorten will again seek the RW nutters out to pass climate legislation given his recent attacks on the Greens party.

    You just can’t trust the L/NP or Labor with environmental policy.

  27. BB

    Labor revisionism to say the Greens voted against climate change.

    The only ones who did that was Abbott after Labor lost an election.

  28. And, as I pointed out in my earlier post, I place a lot of the blame on the party paying far too much attention to the strange ideas coming out of the Grattan Institute.

    The Grattan Institute are a mixed bag. And there are too many neoliberals in the bag.

    The best progressive think tank in Australia is Per Capita.

    The Australia Institute also do some great work, especially the Future of Work project led by Jim Stanford.

    The non-grandfathered franking credits change is a dumb self-inflicted wound by the ALP. For one thing, the amount of money involved in the context of the federal government’s spending is very small: $5 billion compared with a total federal government spend of about $490 billion. But the political pain for the ALP is significant because it plays into the LNP’s talking points. Second, there is heaps of non-inflationary scope for the government to increase its net spending i.e. to increase spending without offsetting the spending increases with tax rises / removal of tax deductions.

  29. Sprocket @12:44
    “Huge exhausted rate in some seats under optional preferential voting. 1 in 8 voters did not express a final preference for either major party. “

    I’m surprised that 7/8 did.

  30. “#qanda Prostitution affects all women because it affects the way men regard women”

    Yes, it can make some men see women as objects that can be bought. Burnside is absolutely correct.

    You are getting so desperate now.

  31. An honourable resignation letter – acceptance of responsibility, no recriminations, and a positive outlook.

  32. Firefox:

    “This is no different to the issue of abortion. If such a procedure is to be carried out, it should always be done safely and hygienically, regardless of it’s legality.”

    Nonsense. Abortion is about a woman deciding what to do with her own body. FGM is about a child being mutilated without any say in the matter. It’s deeply offensive to conflate the two.

    Burnside could have said that FGM should be illegal in all circumstances and punished to the fullest extent of the law. He did not. Instead, he suggested it could be “tolerated.”

    But presume you’re right and he’s been unfairly taken out of context. How do you feel about Burnside’s 40 year membership of the savage club, his defence if Bill Leak and his use of unpaid interns?

  33. Gareth

    This particular result does surprise me

    In Sunderland, Labour has kept control of the council but lost a thumping 9 seats. Four went to the Tories, two to Lib Dems, 3 to UKIP and one to the Greens. The Labour council leader Graeme Miller is blaming Brexit, saying leave voters deserted the party over its stance on a second referendum.

  34. I’ve posted this before but anyhoo,This franking credit BS. I’m on a DSP and much rather be working but those are the cards I’ve been dealt. Anyway getting to the point, I’m still a dues paying union member and although union dues are allowed as a tax deduction because I pay no income tax I can’t, unlike other people that have shares, receive a dividend and franking credits while paying no tax can get those credits back, I can’t, why? It’s the same for anyone that has work related expenses but don’t earn enough to get over the tax free threshold. Any PAYG tax will be refunded but nothing else. why not?

  35. guytaur @ #429 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 10:53 am

    Grime

    What we need is something like the EU data protection laws.
    We should recognise the right to privacy is a human right.

    I am sure we would have found out about the extremists in the LNP anyway.

    The right to privacy doesn’t apply when you voluntarily give up the information.

    We need to realise that nothing is free. It takes a hell of a lot of money to run platforms like Facebook and Twitter. That money has to come from somewhere. If you are not the customer, then you’re the product.

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