Happy trails: episode two

Another look at where the campaign has taken the two leaders, and what that might tell us about the state of play.

Click on the image at the bottom of the post and you will see an updated account of the electorates visited by the leaders during the campaign, more or less (there is an element of subjectivity as to what constitutes a visit). One of the salient points to emerge is the rather intensive focus on Tasmania, which remarkably played host to both leaders yesterday. Scott Morrison has spent three days over two visits – exactly equal to his record for Victoria, where he has targeted the five Liberal-held seats on margins of up to 6.4%, but not wasted effort on Dunkley, which is Liberal-held but notionally Labor. Bill Shorten’s visit to the state was likewise his second, but so far he’s spent two days in the state to Morrison’s three.

Western Australia also logged up some points this week, but this is largely due to the debate having been held there on Monday, and the practicality of hanging around afterwards given the distance involved. Nonetheless, it is notable that Morrison spent fully three days campaigning their compared with Shorten’s two, and that Morrison felt it worth his while to conduct a street walk in the electorate of Canning, situated well up the pendulum at 6.8%.

Bill Shorten is overdue for a visit to New South Wales, where he hasn’t been since he spent the first three full days of the campaign in Sydney. Nonetheless, the prize for the most targeted seat of the campaign so far would appear to be the Sydney seat of Reid, which has been visited three times by Scott Morrison, most recently on Sunday, and was also visited by Shorten on each of his three days in Sydney.

And while you’re about, note also the other new post below this one: episode three of Seat du Jour, covering the Melbourne seat of La Trobe.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Happy trails: episode two”

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  1. Candidates known to have been disendorsed/resigned/withdrawn since election called:Liberal 9 National 1Labor 4 (+1)One Nation 1Ind 1Including since nominations closed:Liberal 3Labor 2One Nation 1#ausvotes— Kevin Bonham (@kevinbonham) May 3, 2019

    No Greens in that lot.

  2. The attack on Creasy may not be from the Greens but could be one of those LNP extremists that don’t like LGBTI people. Like the one that made those comments about Tim Wilson.

    It was leaked to Murdoch. That’s no denial of the Greens having a dirt unit. Just suggesting an alternative as we don’t know who leaked.

    In fact that could explain Labor’s delay. I thought it was just Party Loyalty. I did not realise he was part of the LGBTI community. I missed that fact somehow.

  3. Looks like Tories decimated in UK council elections…

    It looks like there is starting to be some movement on who is being punished the most in this election. Earlier in the night, Labour and the Tories were both suffering at the hands of the Liberal Democrats and independent candidates. The BBC has just published it’s latest scoreboard which shows the Tories have lost 212 local council seats in England, Labour has lost 54 and the Lib Dems have gained 145

  4. Rex Douglas @ #397 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 10:40 am

    Nicko @ #392 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 12:36 pm

    Rex,
    There is no such thing as a clean skin, by your definition.
    Lets all pretend that young people have never said or done anything crass or cringey in their life.

    Use social media wisely or pay the price. Young people sometimes learn the hard way.

    Facebook is the first place prospective employers look when they receive a job application from someone..

  5. Rex:

    “No Greens in that lot.”

    Yep, clearly demonstrating that the Greens don’t hold themselves to the same standards others do. What a bunch of hypocrites.

  6. Got to laugh at the 97% of contributors here who support the Labor/Green Co2 economic rational that believes that by example forcing an Australian company to fill a hole with a shovel having taken away their clapped out 20 ton excavator while allowing the Chinese government to dig the hole with a Bucyrus RH400 879 Ton excavator. Somehow you believe the Australian operator is going to miraculously fill the hole.
    China and India have gone from 13% of world Co2 emissions in 1970 to about 35% in 2017 and increasing.
    What has the EU and the US reducing their emissions of Co2 over the same period done to change this.
    Sweet FA is the logical conclusion.
    Question: given that as China and India move more people out of poverty ( as is their right) will their % contribution to world Co2 reduce or continue on its current trend of doubling every 20 years.

  7. ’25 actually. Born in February 1944, first elected in late 1969.’

    Quite right.
    I will drink cod liver oil for my sins.

  8. Bill moved far too slow. Wong backed Creasey yesterday, Albo the same this morning and then Bill and Andrews again around 9.30am today. Creasey knew what he had posted and should have quit straight away but like what Dickson did to Hanson, Creasey has done actually the same thing and damaged Labor by hanging around.

  9. As a middle-aged, 40-something professional progressive who’s lived in Carlton and voted Labor all my adult life, who do I vote for now, given Creasey’s disendorsement?

    If you don’t vote Green in these circumstances you are petulant and misguided.

    Assuming you really do care about progressive principles.

  10. guytaur @ #501 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 1:37 pm

    The attack on Creasy may not be from the Greens but could be one of those LNP extremists that don’t like LGBTI people. Like the one that made those comments about Tim Wilson.

    It was leaked to Murdoch. That’s no denial of the Greens having a dirt unit. Just suggesting an alternative as we don’t know who leaked.

    In fact that could explain Labor’s delay. I thought it was just Party Loyalty. I did not realise he was part of the LGBTI community. I missed that fact somehow.

    Who benefits? Certainly not Labor. Nor the coalition, apart from a minor dent to Labor’s reputation. The Greens are the major beneficiary, so I will assume they are behind it until I see compelling evidence to the contrary.

  11. Seriously folks as a long time PB follower these Labor-Green wars are incredibly childish and a major put-off to what is a great site . And the usual trolls don’t help. There are just too may crap juvenile comments to scroll over before you get to any gems of political insight – smarten up people!!

  12. Barney in Phan Thiet says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 1:23 pm

    No one is forcing people to invest in companies that offer franked dividends.

    At the moment it’s attractive to do so because you get an extra handout from the Government.

    There are many ways to invest your money and you should choose the ways that suit you.

    If the franked credit rebate is worthless to someone who pays no tax, then they need to assess whether it’s the best way to invest their money.

    Sure. I said as much in the comment you were replying to. But if they sell their shares, it will be to someone who in all likelihood will be richer, and have a taxable income high enough to be able to claim the credits, which will mean the revenue benefit to the government on those franking credits will be nil. If enough people do the same, I think it’s reasonable that projections for how much this measure will raise may be much higher than what what will happen in reality, and the only lasting effect will be to move share ownership from retirees (who don’t have other taxable income to claim the credits against) to workers or the truly wealthy. Remember, Labor’s policy is not to abolish franking credits, but just to limit the ability to claim back tax withheld to those with sufficiently high taxable incomes.

    Short version: if those who can no longer claim franking credits sell their shares (to those who can claim the credits), then what’s the point? And where’s the revenue benefit?

  13. “Nonsense. Abortion is about a woman deciding what to do with her own body. FGM is about a child being mutilated without any say in the matter. It’s deeply offensive to conflate the two.”

    ???????? what about circumcision, how the hell is that any different, and it is “offered as general practice at all hospitals??? When my son was born it was asked if we wanted it done, F### off was my reply!!! Neither procedure should be done and both should be criminalised.

    I find it quite ironic in our society, when people i know have had their son’s circumcised, then go on to criticise parents who have allowed their boys to have their ears pierced??? got figure…

  14. For progressive people in Melbourne it simple . Vote Green 1 Labor 2.

    Send Labor the message you want disrespect of woman stopped. You support equality and will vote in the bigots nightmare.

    From today that’s the message you are sending as a voter.

    That’s the line the Greens should run.

  15. Rocket Rocket

    All of the results are looking weird to me. I probably just can’t grasp how crazy brexit has made everyone.

  16. AJM

    I agree. However it benefits the LNP nationally to have same same on hypocrisy. Tried and true tactic plus the homophobes claim a victory.

    So there is an alternative that is plausible.

  17. “Send Labor the message you want disrespect of woman stopped. You support equality and will vote in the bigots nightmare.”

    After Jeremy Buckingham, DJ Fatgut and now Burnside and Bartlett, the Greens cannot possibly run that line and hope to be taken seriously.

  18. The time is not far away when an early Labor voter in Melbourne or Liberal voter in Lyons goes to court to get the final result overturned on the basis that they effectively wasted their vote and had been disenfranchised. It sounds as though it could be a Clive Palmer sort of litigation.

  19. “Nonsense. Abortion is about a woman deciding what to do with her own body. FGM is about a child being mutilated without any say in the matter. It’s deeply offensive to conflate the two.

    Burnside could have said that FGM should be illegal in all circumstances and punished to the fullest extent of the law. He did not. Instead, he suggested it could be “tolerated.”

    But presume you’re right and he’s been unfairly taken out of context. How do you feel about Burnside’s 40 year membership of the savage club, his defence if Bill Leak and his use of unpaid interns?”

    ***

    Forced genital mutilation, not just on females, is indeed something that’s done without their consent. You are completely missing the point though. Like abortion, it’s going to happen regardless of whether it’s legal or not. Therefore, it should always be done safely.

    I note that you’ve not once brought up the issue of forced male genital mutilation which happens regularly in this country. There’s a good chance many of the males reading this have had their penis mutilated. Burnside was making the point that if we are to ban female genital mutilation then we must also ban male genital mutilation too. There are many places one can go to have a circumcision done by medical professionals in a safe environment. Why do you want to deny women and girls that same safety? Do their vaginas not matter as much as penises to you? That’s how you’re coming across here.

    As for the savage club issue, I think Burnside himself put it pretty well…

    “…I’m glad to have been given an opportunity to think about this issue more seriously.

    Having done so and having listened to how my supporters feel about it, I’ve come to the conclusion that arguing for change from within as I have been is too slow, so I have taken the decision to resign my membership until the club welcomes all people.” -Burnside

    He’s came to a similar conclusion that I did in regards to another backwards organisation known as the Australian Labor Party when I left it for the Greens. Arguing for change from within can only get you so far. We both obviously made the right decision.

  20. michael says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 1:40 pm

    Bill moved far too slow. Wong backed Creasey yesterday, Albo the same this morning and then Bill and Andrews again around 9.30am today. Creasey knew what he had posted and should have quit straight away but like what Dickson did to Hanson, Creasey has done actually the same thing and damaged Labor by hanging around.

    I notice you haven’t provided anything that supports why he should have stood down.

    In the end the politics of smear won out and he fell on his sword to bring an end to the distraction it had become.

  21. jeff @ #516 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 1:16 pm

    “???????? what about circumcision, how the hell is that any different, and it is “offered as general practice at all hospitals??? When my son was born it was asked if we wanted it done, F### off was my reply!!! Neither procedure should be done and both should be criminalised.

    I think you’ll find circumcision is well and truly on the way out and not even offered by most doctors. When our son was born we were told that if we wanted that we’d have to find a different doctor.

  22. There’s still 15 days to go. Plenty of time for a Greens candidate to have concerns about vaccinations.

  23. Gareth

    I think it is a whole world of crazy right now in the UK. I think the EU gave them that longer deadline because they were sick of the never-ending soap-opera of ‘meaningful’ votes and ‘cliffhanger finishes’ that turned out to be not so meaningful after all. I am wary of asking friends in Sunderland how it is all going – most UK people I know out here are pretty distressed by it all.

  24. Abortion is not about a women deciding what to do with their own body, it is baby murder. Perhaps they should have thought about what they were doing with their own body when they got pregnant if their response was going to be to become a murderer.

  25. Another sleazy scumbag bites the dust:

    Luke Creasey has quit as Labor’s candidate for Melbourne after a string of offensive Facebook posts emerged over the past few days.

    Mr Creasey apologised for letting Labor voters down and warned young people running for parliament in the future about watching what they say on social media.

    “Today, I have called the ALP National Secretary and advised that I will be withdrawing as Labor’s candidate,” he said in a statement.

    “While I made those awful comments many years ago and they in no way reflect the views I hold today, I understand, especially as a member of the LGBTIQ community, that we need to be careful about what we share or like on social media.

    “I think this is a really important lesson for young people that your social media footprint will follow you. “I stood for Labor because we are a progressive party that believes in making our society fairer and better for everyone from pensioners to working people. It is clear the right thing for me to do is stand down.

    “I would like to thank everyone that has helped me, both within the party and across the community. I am sorry if I have let you down. I wish Bill and the team all the very best for the election.”

  26. Does anyone else feel that we might see a bit of a shift in the next round of polling?

    I can’t put my finger on why, and I’m usually a pessimist about Labor, but for some reason I feel like the major polls have failed to pick up a move to them, not away from them. I wouldn’t be surprised by 53/47 or even 54/46.

    Maybe it’s just that the desperate spinning of the last couple of 51/49 results has felt like the government’s last chance to seize the initiative, and they have comprehensively failed to do so with all these candidate issues and Morrison’s poor performance in the debate.

  27. Male circumcision, other than for prescribed medical reasons, is a barbaric practice and should stop but let’s not make an equivalency argument between it and FGM. FGM is much more horrific and terrible. There is no safe FGM. It’s a cruel practice that should be abolished and stopped. No amount of rationalising, whataboutery or woke virtue-signalling justifies tolerating it in the slightest.

  28. Oh shit…

    I’ll be back later.

    lol.

    But just to summarise, male circumcision is wrong, FGM is a crime against women.

    Abortion should always been about the woman first.

    I’ve been looking at polling and I don’t see how Labor’s primary is suddenly getting to these tight 2PP numbers, unless the Greens totally tank. Those minor preference flow presumptions are going to be VERY interesting to watch.

  29. Amusing article from the Washington Post about who was leading the US Presidential Primaries this far out in past campaigns.

    2008 Democrats: Clinton led by 7 points. She led for another 285 days.
    2008 Republicans: Giuliani leads by 10.2 points. He led for another 248 days.
    2012 Republicans: Romney leads by 8.5 points. He led for another 110 days.
    2016 Democrats: Clinton led by 56.6 points. She led for the rest of the primary.
    2016 Republicans: Bush leads by 1.2 points. He led for another 72 days.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/01/25/day-by-day-reminder-how-quickly-presidential-races-can-change/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.73261886adbf

    They are apparently promising to update this every day from now until the presidential election.

  30. “Nonsense. Abortion is about a woman deciding what to do with her own body. FGM is about a child being mutilated without any say in the matter. It’s deeply offensive to conflate the two.”

    I’ll try again. In a practical sense what investigating police and prosecuting agencies face in the real world in this country is the practice of Cutna, not the full or partial FMG that most people think of.

    If society can tolerate without endorsing male circumcision, then why can it not tolerate the less intrusive and non damaging practice of Cutna?

    Edited to add. There is no comparison with male circumcision and genuine forms of FMG beyond Cutna, because real FMG can interfer with sexual pleasure, function and indeed other basic bodily functions. Male circumcision (unless there is a massive stuf up) doesn’t affect any of these.

  31. “There’s still 15 days to go. Plenty of time for a Greens candidate to have concerns about vaccinations.”

    ***

  32. JP says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 1:46 pm

    Barney in Phan Thiet says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 1:23 pm

    No one is forcing people to invest in companies that offer franked dividends.

    At the moment it’s attractive to do so because you get an extra handout from the Government.

    There are many ways to invest your money and you should choose the ways that suit you.

    If the franked credit rebate is worthless to someone who pays no tax, then they need to assess whether it’s the best way to invest their money.

    Sure. I said as much in the comment you were replying to. But if they sell their shares, it will be to someone who in all likelihood will be richer, and have a taxable income high enough to be able to claim the credits, which will mean the revenue benefit to the government on those franking credits will be nil. If enough people do the same, I think it’s reasonable that projections for how much this measure will raise may be much higher than what what will happen in reality, and the only lasting effect will be to move share ownership from retirees (who don’t have other taxable income to claim the credits against) to workers or the truly wealthy. Remember, Labor’s policy is not to abolish franking credits, but just to limit the ability to claim back tax withheld to those with sufficiently high taxable incomes.

    Short version: if those who can no longer claim franking credits sell their shares (to those who can claim the credits), then what’s the point? And where’s the revenue benefit?

    Simple: All the tax paid by the company is kept by the Government and not partly given back to people with no tax liability.

    Remember that a person with a tax liability will have to pay extra tax on franked dividends if their tax bracket is higher than 30%.

  33. For a supposedly informed, practical-mibded and hard-headed mob here at PB, only concerned about the realpolitik of Creasy’s resignation, more than a few are putting a gleeful boot into the young bloke.

    Seems more like exercising an opportunity to hate than anything very much to do with sober political judgement.

  34. I find it interesting that despite the utter shambles that is Brexit, the UK parliament has no problem declaring a climate emergency, with both sides taking a clear stance that climate change is the biggest issue facing the world and urgent, society-wide action is needed.

    Compare and contrast to Australia, where the level of debate is literally that we “can’t afford” to take real action and that rising emissions are ok because of some bullshit accounting sleight of hand while real emissions rise and we try to export more and more coal.

    Out of interest, what do Bludgers think the psychology of the right wing is on this issue?

    I see the following options:

    1. Genuine denial of climate change – I find this one hard to accept, as there are plenty of intelligent people who are right of centre.

    2. A view that we are stuffed anyway, so we may as well make money on the way out the door.

    3. A view that real action is inevitable, but we may as well make as much money as we can before that happens.

    4. A misguided view that money will insulate them from the worst of the consequences of CC.

    I suspect behind closed doors #3 is the reality of the situation. If that is the case, it’s a dangerously selfish way to think. But I can’t otherwise reconcile right wingers’ continual attempts to undermine real action on climate change in Australia with the fact that some of them must have children and grandchildren, and some of them are pretty young themselves. Do they really not care if they or their descendents live in a hellish, overheated, flooded world with no large animal life and constant drought, starvation and storms?

    The way it’s treated as a left-right issue here bewilders me, I suppose is my point. Is this just the horrible end point of the right’s war on science?

  35. “Male circumcision, other than for prescribed medical reasons, is a barbaric practice and should stop but let’s not make an equivalency argument between it and FGM. FGM is much more horrific and terrible. There is no safe FGM. It’s a cruel practice that should be abolished and stopped. No amount of rationalising, whataboutery or woke virtue-signalling justifies tolerating it in the slightest.”

    Actually, just like FGM, circumcision can and does impact the pleasure a man can feel from stimulation. There’s also been plenty of absolute horror stories where circumcisions have been badly botched by people who aren’t medically qualified to carry out such a procedure. Google it if you’re interested. But I warn you, it is not easy reading.

  36. Swaprat – please add the following disclaimer:

    * where not medically necessary.

    Then you’d have 100% agreement from me, please note that you are 99.99% of the way there or so 😉

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