Click on the image at the bottom of the post and you will see an updated account of the electorates visited by the leaders during the campaign, more or less (there is an element of subjectivity as to what constitutes a visit). One of the salient points to emerge is the rather intensive focus on Tasmania, which remarkably played host to both leaders yesterday. Scott Morrison has spent three days over two visits – exactly equal to his record for Victoria, where he has targeted the five Liberal-held seats on margins of up to 6.4%, but not wasted effort on Dunkley, which is Liberal-held but notionally Labor. Bill Shorten’s visit to the state was likewise his second, but so far he’s spent two days in the state to Morrison’s three.
Western Australia also logged up some points this week, but this is largely due to the debate having been held there on Monday, and the practicality of hanging around afterwards given the distance involved. Nonetheless, it is notable that Morrison spent fully three days campaigning their compared with Shorten’s two, and that Morrison felt it worth his while to conduct a street walk in the electorate of Canning, situated well up the pendulum at 6.8%.
Bill Shorten is overdue for a visit to New South Wales, where he hasn’t been since he spent the first three full days of the campaign in Sydney. Nonetheless, the prize for the most targeted seat of the campaign so far would appear to be the Sydney seat of Reid, which has been visited three times by Scott Morrison, most recently on Sunday, and was also visited by Shorten on each of his three days in Sydney.
And while you’re about, note also the other new post below this one: episode three of Seat du Jour, covering the Melbourne seat of La Trobe.
Tanking continues. Coalition out to $4.80 on betfair now. Will be great if they go back into the $5 to $6 range they started out with.
Alpha Zero
Is Lara Bingle available for it ?
Interesting responses by AE and others. Just to be clear: I would strongly support removing franking credits under a grandfathered arrangement in which they would still apply to existing shareholdings but not newly-acquired ones. And I would definitely want to apply this change to everyone: ie, not have pensioners and part-pensioners exempted as Labor proposes. If something is an unsustainable rort, then why is that not the case for anyone who uses it?
I would also support putting an upper limit on how much in the way of franking credits any one taxpayer could claim: something like $50k per annum would seem about right to me.
As far as I can see, the only reason that Labor doesn’t want to go down the path I propose is that they want to raise a lot more money out of the measure. But the sudden removal of these credits is going to disrupt the retirement plans of large numbers of people who – given that most of them are unable to return to the workforce – will have a limited ability to compensate for that. I think most people – including whoever will be holding the balance of power in the Senate – would see that as being unfair.
As a comparison, we’ve heard a lot of rhetoric from Labor about people who are using negative gearing “to buy their tenth house.” But Labor doesn’t propose to do anything to those people: they get to keep their negative gearing for as long as they keep those ten houses.
These are just symptoms of what I see as the unsystematic policy thinking and poor political strategy which can be found throughout Labor’s tax package. I don’t see it as being linked in any way to the great work done in the Hawke-Keating era: it just doesn’t make the grade.
And, as I pointed out in my earlier post, I place a lot of the blame on the party paying far too much attention to the strange ideas coming out of the Grattan Institute.. In the 1980s, Labor had some top drawer economic thinkers driving their policy. Not these days.
Like you jen, I live in Reid (the Abbotsford end).
The seat is coming back to labor, no question. It was only Craig Laundy’s personal vote that got them over the line at the last election.
Fiona Martin seems like a decent person but she doesn’t project as a natural politician and seems a bit awkward campaigning. The labor guy, Sam Crosby seems reasonable, intelligent.
Chalk Reid up as a labor gain I reckon.
Why is Shorten launching an attack on vegemite?
‘Yeah, Labor should have allowed the greedy to have their ill-gotten gains instead, eh?’
They may well get to keep them yet.
Seriously? If this election bogs down on whether a young ALP candidate shared some obnoxious jokes 7 years ago, then the Australian polity is truly fucked.
You’ll never be allowed to make a mistake at any time in your life, or a poor decision, or choose the wrong friends. The wowsers here calling for more resignations are almost as bad as those they attack. They are pious hypocrites.
sustainable: “I can’t believe labor has gone into the campaign without some costings of their GHG reduction targets.”
I agree; if the Libs can find any number of ‘climate experts’ to show how god-awful the costings for the ALP will be; then surely the ALP can find their own ‘climate experts’ to provide a counter argument and also show how god-awful the cost of doing nothing (as the Libs propose) will be.
…if you want to have a career in politics. So it goes.
Or just exercise some common sense and delete the goddamn social media accounts before you start your campaign. Make new ones, specifically for politics, and keep them squeaky clean.
The question is why has Labor not been able to convince people that it is an unsustainable rort. I don’t think it has put enough effort and smarts into it.
So when some voters here Clive telling them that Labor is going to make ‘our pensioners homeless and destitute’ they think that sounds bad.
mundo @ #359 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 12:15 pm
Nonsense. I’ve seen multiple instances of Labor candidates pointing out that literally no other country in the world does the franking credits thing. The handful of other countries that did try it, stopped (although Labor doesn’t mention this part). If that’s not adequate evidence that franking credits are a bad idea, nothing ever will be.
How about “I’m so lucky that my local internet connection is so shyte that I haven’t been able to upload a racist, homophobic or sexist meme to social media.”
Creasey’s just been dumped. BREAKING NEWS.
One of the developing stories this week has been the continuing increase in pre-poll voting at this year’s election. The AEC publishes daily updates with the number of votes cast at each pre-poll centre per day, allowing us to track how many people are choosing to vote early. In this post I’ll run through what the stats look like after three days of voting (data up to date as of the end of voting Wednesday).
As of the end of voting on Wednesday, 375,793 voters had cast a ballot using pre-poll. The equivalent figure was only 143,611 in 2016, 89,761 in 2013 and 53,474 in 2010, although I should note that voting started on a Tuesday at the last two elections, so I’m comparing three days of voting to just two.
This chart shows the cumulative number of pre-poll votes cast per day at each election. You can see that the same number of voters hadn’t cast their vote for five more days in 2016, seven more days in 2013, or nine more days in 2010.
http://www.tallyroom.com.au/38703
Meher
Thanks for the response. Three very quick points:
1. I think the policy is both good and courageous as it is. I don’t think either grandfathering or putting a cap on the cash backs is necessary.
2. I don’t think it fair to say that Labor doesn’t have good economic thinkers theses days. I actually reckon the shadow cabinet is the most economically informed grouping that Labor has had: Bowen, Chalmers and Lee all pack intellectual punch IMO. Not to mention half a dozen others in the shadow. I actually think that with 16 of the shadow ministery with actual ministerial experience and chased by the RGR omnishambles that the first Shorten Ministery is shaping up to be the best since the first and second Hawke Ministeries.
3. That said, I think Labor will face insurmountable headwinds in the senate to get its franking credit reforms through in their current form. I suspect a partial grandfathering with a maximum cap of $20,000 in the cashbacks possibly paid will be close to where the reform actually lands. That will deprive labor of some (but not all) of its proposed savings over the forward estimates, but would still reflect a structural reform of some significance.
Pretty sure Creasey will be gorn by days end. Stupid. Should have knocked him off straight away. The score would still be 9 LNP and only 2 Lab gone. A pretty good score card for Labor I would have thought.
Catching up on earlier posts
Mundo
I am well and truly a grown up!
C@t
Yes I had seen Robert Smith making those comments at the time. Hilarious. Sadly it seems to have gotten more views than his music, which is the best!
Assange in gaol for breach bail is academic. He would have been remanded in gaol on the extradition warrant in any event given he is an obvious flight risk.
Some FACTS to use when peeps talk shite about franking credits:
* 92% of taxpayers DO NOT claim excess franking credits..
* 80% of excess franking credits claimed go to those with more than $1Million in their super fund..
* pensioners are EXEMPT..
BB – am moving up to Mortlake (still in Reid) in about 6 weeks
Why assume that Labor hasn’t convinced the majority of the franking credit refund?
Showing some guy on a boat on complaining about it… is not very good example of… the wider public not supporting it… I mean I thought I saw a poll recently that show a majority support to getting rid of it.
So many here are so manipulated by the MSM talking points.
The talk of climate action cost is a case in point, it is just a Liberal party talking point, nothing more about bogging it down to a cost rather than doing the right thing.
Labor rightly counter it by arguing that the cost of inaction is way higher, getting bogged down in costings is a typical Liberal trope.
marks
Unfortunately there is much disinformation about,and most of it is deliberate.
To all the whingers asking why doesn’t Labor have a snappy slogan – have you seen any of their campaign material? “Labor – A Fair Go for Australia” is everywhere. For one example, click this…
https://www.billshorten.com.au/
re: Creasy ..no choice & better late than never..
Victoria @ #371 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 11:56 am
..such is the lot of the ALP. It was ever thus Victoria & we all have a duty to counter the lies/misinformation.. 🙁
@Shane Wright
Sick new car sales figures now out … sold 75,550 in April, down 8.9% on April last year. Worst April result since 2011 (when there were fewer drivers)…
Jack Aranda @ #372 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 12:26 pm
The starving and destitute on Newstart aren’t getting a fair go !
What markjs said.
If I didn’t vote Labor I would on them removing excess franking credits alone.
‘Nonsense. I’ve seen multiple instances of Labor candidates pointing out that literally no other country in the world does the franking credits thing. The handful of other countries that did try it, stopped (although Labor doesn’t mention this part). If that’s not adequate evidence that franking credits are a bad idea, nothing ever will be.’
I rest my case.
I’ve had to explain it people simply, directly. Explain why it’s a rort. How it’s a rort.
Just saying no other country does the franking credits thing doesn’t cut it.
What is franking?
What does it mean ‘credit’
‘Franking credit’ Que?
It’s as mysterious to the average person as transubstantiation.
booleanbach @ #357 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 12:12 pm
There was recently a report out that put a price on the cost of doing nothing. $130 billion per year I think it was. Each and every year.
I’m surprised Labor hasn’t made more noise about that number (it would fit perfectly with Shorten’s “cost of inaction” point from the debate), and that they haven’t found an expert who will slap a costing of <any number less than $130b> on their climate policies.
Though really, how do you even cost an emissions policy? If you reduce emissions by encouraging everyone to buy an EV for their next car, what does that cost the government? A few million dollars for the ad campaign? The media’s narrative that you can easily and accurately stick a cost on a suite of climate policies is mostly nonsense imo.
Creasey gone.
Good. Can do without the distraction.
If Morrison is claiming liberal party will dump Liberal party candidates who have any kind of cloud over them , Why is Mundine , Dutton, falinski, and others have not been asked to resign as they have section 44 cloud hanging over their eligibility
mundo says:
Friday, May 3, 2019 at 12:15 pm
The question is why has Labor not been able to convince people that it is an unsustainable rort. I don’t think it has put enough effort and smarts into it.
—————————-
I am sure Labor has done some polling to test the voters feeling on this issue and are comfortable with the way it is going.
Well the media got their scalp, congratulations for tearing down another young potential politician.
Almost no young person is safe… with social media these days.
I had no idea that was Labor’s slogan, but I also don’t know of the Coalition’s slogan. Not watching commercial television sure has its benefits.
The only thing that has filtered down to me during this campaign is that Labor will tax you to DEATH.
BK @ #55 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 5:38 am
We all know what happens when ScoMo stands by someone, specially if he’s got his arm around you.
End to Aids in sight as huge study finds drugs stop HIV transmission
Paper says risk between male partners is zero if virus fully suppressed by antiretrovirals
Will Fred Nile fall on his sword* now that his raison d’être is all but over?
.
.
.
.
* take that as a pun if you wish…
Nicko @ #383 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 12:30 pm
You’ve got to be a clean skin if you want to represent people in the parliament.
Social media users should err on the side of caution re their contributions.
mundo @ #378 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 12:29 pm
Another thing I’ve seen Labor candidates say is that it’s a tax refund for people who have paid no tax. I think that pretty covers your objections.
I have no fucking idea. Some past Australian being really bad at naming things, I think. 🙂
Has it been confirmed that Luke Creasy dumped?
“The starving and destitute on Newstart aren’t getting a fair go !” Well no, Rex, but Labor hasn’t been in gummint for the last 6 years has it?
(I’ve been a Greens voter for some years but jeez you and Peg are doing your best to drive me back into the ALP fold! Shorten Shorten whinge whinge blah blah yada yada – so boring!)
Jack Aranda @ #372 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 12:26 pm
What he said 😡
Nicko @ #383 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 12:30 pm
Delete the account(s) if you want to do politics. There’s no excuse for not doing so. You know the other side will trawl through absolutely everything and weaponize anything they can.
Rex,
There is no such thing as a clean skin, by your definition.
Lets all pretend that young people have never said or done anything crass or cringey in their life.
mundo
And the simple answer is: if you don’t know what a franking credit is, the policy will have no impact on you.
Jack Aranda @ #390 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 12:34 pm
I’m driving you back to Labor for sticking up for the starving and destitute ..?
Victoria @ #389 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 12:34 pm
ABC had a live cut to Shorten a few minutes ago, saying roughly “New posts from Creasey have been brought to my detention, I’ve asked to receive a full briefing on the matter; we’re going to get to the bottom of who said what, and get this matter resolved today”.
I’d assume it’s too soon for a “full briefing” to have happened yet. Though I’d also doubt that the outcome will be anything other than Creasey being gone.
Meher, AE et al
Just on super and franking credits, as someone bumping up against the $1.6m super cap, having an income, paying tax and I have a share portfolio – I can say that any rorts which are closed off don’t matter a hoot. Good while they lasted.
Conversely, I quietly thank PJK whenever I review the investments.
Nicko @ #392 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 12:36 pm
Use social media wisely or pay the price. Young people sometimes learn the hard way.
With Luke Creasey being disendorsed it is now time for the Greens to step up and do the same for Andrew Bartlett and Julian Burnside.
If it is unacceptable for a candidate to make inappropriate FB posts, then you cannot possibly justify having a candidate who actually, physically assaulted a woman.
It is also unacceptable to have a candidate who was for 40 years a member of a sexist, racist club for elites, who defended Bill Leak on twitter and who suggested FGM should be practiced in a Australia.
Remember the greens are also the party who steadfastly stood by DJ Fatgut and Jeremy Buckingham.
The Greens must now take action against the misogynists in their party or they can never be taken seriously again.