Happy trails: episode two

Another look at where the campaign has taken the two leaders, and what that might tell us about the state of play.

Click on the image at the bottom of the post and you will see an updated account of the electorates visited by the leaders during the campaign, more or less (there is an element of subjectivity as to what constitutes a visit). One of the salient points to emerge is the rather intensive focus on Tasmania, which remarkably played host to both leaders yesterday. Scott Morrison has spent three days over two visits – exactly equal to his record for Victoria, where he has targeted the five Liberal-held seats on margins of up to 6.4%, but not wasted effort on Dunkley, which is Liberal-held but notionally Labor. Bill Shorten’s visit to the state was likewise his second, but so far he’s spent two days in the state to Morrison’s three.

Western Australia also logged up some points this week, but this is largely due to the debate having been held there on Monday, and the practicality of hanging around afterwards given the distance involved. Nonetheless, it is notable that Morrison spent fully three days campaigning their compared with Shorten’s two, and that Morrison felt it worth his while to conduct a street walk in the electorate of Canning, situated well up the pendulum at 6.8%.

Bill Shorten is overdue for a visit to New South Wales, where he hasn’t been since he spent the first three full days of the campaign in Sydney. Nonetheless, the prize for the most targeted seat of the campaign so far would appear to be the Sydney seat of Reid, which has been visited three times by Scott Morrison, most recently on Sunday, and was also visited by Shorten on each of his three days in Sydney.

And while you’re about, note also the other new post below this one: episode three of Seat du Jour, covering the Melbourne seat of La Trobe.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Happy trails: episode two”

Comments Page 2 of 26
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  1. Tristo @ #42 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 7:29 am

    I would argue why the Coalition is competitive in the opinion polls at the moment

    Is because a lot of people who would vote happily for Labor, have a lot to lose from Labor’s proposed Franking Dividends and especially negative gearing reform proposals.

    And they are greedy and selfish and can’t see that they are getting hard-working taxpayers’ $ for the simple reason that they own shares. 😡

  5. Breaking: Jessica Whelan axed as the Liberal candidate for Lyons #auspol #ausvotes
    _____
    But , but I thought Morrison was standing by her.

  8. markjs,
    You are correct about the Borders thing. Our local Liberal candidate is still trying to convince people as they walk into the polling place that, ‘You will always have stronger borders under a Coalition government’. So do her posters on bus shelters say the same thing, ‘For Stronger Borders, Stronger Economy, Vote Liberal’. But the Christchurch massacre and the court case which will freshen the incident in people’s minds over the next few weeks, plus all these candidates being outed as closet bigots, is making all that turn to ashes in Liberals’ mouths. 🙂

  11. BK says:

    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 7:38 am
    Breaking: Jessica Whelan axed as the Liberal candidate for Lyons #auspol #ausvotes
    _____
    But , but I thought Morrison was standing by her.

    Ah BK, you forget what happens to people Scrott ‘stands by’.

  14. Zoidlord @ #10 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 6:39 am

    @FightingTories

    Queensland LNP candidate Phillip Thompson posted vile racist slurs made about Muslims on social media in which he implied he would shoot them news.com.au/national/polit… via @newscomauHQ

    Now what about this bloke (read above)

  15. Itep@6:49am
    As per Barry Cassidy, Liberal party members are to the right of Liberal party Parliamentarians. Imagine that. So when pre-selection happens and a member becomes candidate, Voila, we have extreme-right wing candidate. No surprise there.

  18. Is this normal?

    Peter van OnselenVerified account @vanOnselenP
    11h11 hours ago

    The woman on the right in the Liberal photo handing out for the Liberals…later that day handing out for Clive Palmer. So Liberals want to ensure UAP preference suggestions get handed out in marginal seats like Dunkley…classy #auspol

    :large

  19. After the massacre in a Christchurch by an Australian, there is nowhere for the fibs to hide on anti Muslim candidates. They cannot be abided by.

  20. Fozzie Logic @ #65 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 7:44 am

    Zoidlord @ #10 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 6:39 am

    @FightingTories

    Queensland LNP candidate Phillip Thompson posted vile racist slurs made about Muslims on social media in which he implied he would shoot them news.com.au/national/polit… via @newscomauHQ

    Now what about this bloke (read above)

    I’m pretty sure this guy recanted and apologised some time ago. He blamed his outbursts on PTSD after his service in Afghanistan.

  21. On Whelan, I’m just surprised that Morrison missed the opportunity to put his arm around her yesterday. 😆

  22. Socrates @ #68 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 7:46 am

    Morning all. Well that AFP investigation of Whelan must have been quick.!

    Roman Quaedvlieg
    ‏

    @quaedvliegs
    14m14 minutes ago
    More Roman Quaedvlieg Retweeted Peter FitzSimons
    As a probationary Constable you are taught to look up sternly at the complainant over the edge of your police notebook at this point to (a) discourage them from telling further fibs and (b) give them an opportunity to recant. If they don’t you keep writing but shake your head.

  23. My thoughts yesterday on the Liberals deciding they had no hope in Braddon unless they got rid of Jessica Whelan seem to have been right.

    So even worse than the traitor’s arm around your shoulder is that same guy avoiding you like the plague at a pre-planned campaign stop!

    Also they didn’t want this to fester over a polling weekend.

  26. With all of these LNP candidates being canned for racist and homophobic rants, it’s about time somebody post minutes from the meeting where ScoMo suggested use of racism would be good strategy…

  28. Don’t they have someone check out their social media accounts?

    Looks like that referral won’t be forthcoming, with Simon Birmingham saying he expected the Tasmanian Liberal party would be meeting to officially dis-endorse Whelan today.

    “New information has come to light overnight which had not previously been disclosed to the party,” he told Sky News this morning.

    “I understand the Tasmanian division is taking swift action this morning.”

    The Guardian blog

  29. Re: Anning’s AirDrop messages, there’s your problem:

    She said she turned on bluetooth so she could sync with other personal devices like her fitbit, and though she knew she could restrict the settings, she hadn’t thought to do so.

  31. Greensborough Growler @ #70 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 7:48 am

    Fozzie Logic @ #65 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 7:44 am

    Zoidlord @ #10 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 6:39 am

    @FightingTories

    Queensland LNP candidate Phillip Thompson posted vile racist slurs made about Muslims on social media in which he implied he would shoot them news.com.au/national/polit… via @newscomauHQ

    Now what about this bloke (read above)

    I’m pretty sure this guy recanted and apologised some time ago. He blamed his outbursts on PTSD after his service in Afghanistan.

    hmmmmmmmm, I wonder how much compassion the media would show him if he was the ALP candidate*
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    * hint: none

  32. White Ribbon’s chief are appalled at Creasey’s comments. The Domestic Violence Centre are equally unhappy about Creasey’s posts. Keep standing behind him Billy, Labor standards are practically in the gutter, plus the Labor Party Left won’t let the Right win.

  33. samantha maidenVerified account @samanthamaiden
    19m19 minutes ago

    Liberals tell me they are still referring the first post but presumably not the others which are true?
    Cops will be absolutely thrilled no doubt. Please investigate this ladies Facebook posts – the bulk of which she admits she did ?

  34. michael @ #82 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 8:10 am

    White Ribbon’s chief are appalled at Creasey’s comments. The Domestic Violence Centre are equally unhappy about Creasey’s posts. Keep standing behind him Billy, Labor standards are practically in the gutter, plus the Labor Party Left won’t let the Right win.

    Steely,
    no comments on your christian taliban lnp mates ?

  35. fess

    I have to admit that one election we had a guy who handed out at one booth for Labor in the morning then drove to another to hand out for the Libs.

    He was traditionally a Lib voter but his neighbour was our candidate.

  38. As much as you wonder about the vetting processes the Coalition has, you have to turn your mind to the pool of candidates they’re pulling these people from.

    Is it that hard to find a Liberal who hasn’t made a porkchop of themselves?

  39. michael says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 8:10 am

    White Ribbon’s chief are appalled at Creasey’s comments. The Domestic Violence Centre are equally unhappy about Creasey’s posts. Keep standing behind him Billy, Labor standards are practically in the gutter, plus the Labor Party Left won’t let the Right win.

    Michael, are you willing to support your claims with evidence.

    From what I’ve seen the posts in question do not support what you are suggesting.

  41. @Stephen Jones MP

    REVEALED the National Party game plan

    win the election
    then axe Michael McCormack
    then install Barnaby Joyce as the Deputy Prime Minister

    The Coalition promise to Australia
    more chaos
    more disfunction
    more Barnaby debacles

  42. Just looking at yesterday’s footage of Morrison at Lyons it looked like Morrison thought Whelan was infected with ebola.

  43. Isn’t all this sacking of candidates a bit too late? Ballot papers already printed with name and party affiliation….can that be changed now?

  44. Shorten to meet Daniel Andrews within the hour. Perhaps Shorten will tell him he does not want another CFA debacle and Creasey must go.

  45. The debate tonight would also have influenced Morrison to dump Whelan.

    Pity Morrison is such a ‘dag’ he never would have shared his thoughts on Facebook or MySpace!

  47. Even if Labor forms a majority government in the House of Representatives, it could be likely there could be a blocking majority of the Coalition (which will definitely do a strategy of total opposition), Pauline Hanson, Corey Bernardi, The Center Alliance and possibly Clive Palmer (if he is elected), that could block measures such as negative gearing and franking dividend reforms.

  48. Tristo @ #98 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 8:19 am

    Even if Labor forms a majority government in the House of Representatives, it could be likely there could be a blocking majority of the Coalition (which will definitely do a strategy of total opposition), Pauline Hanson, Corey Bernardi, The Center Alliance and possibly Clive Palmer (if he is elected), that could block measures such as negative gearing and franking dividend reforms.

    And there’s a solution for that. So do you believe that they would all like to go to a DD election and maybe lose their seats over it?

  49. Article on dumping of Whelan

    A Liberal candidate for the Tasmanian seat of Lyons is being dumped over anti-Islamic posts to social media.

    Jessica Whelan denied responsibility for one Islamophobic remark, referring the “doctored” Facebook post to federal police.

    But after more screenshots emerged overnight, Liberal campaign spokesman Simon Birmingham confirmed Ms Whelan would be disendorsed on Friday.

    “I expect based on the information that has come to light overnight, the additional information, that she’ll not be continued to be Liberal candidate,” he told Nine’s Today Show on Friday.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6103875/liberal-candidate-dumped-over-social-posts/?cs=14231&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews

  50. The decision to drop Ms Whelan comes after police on Thursday night confirmed they had not received the the “doctored” Facebook posts, despite the Prime Minister insisting they been called in to investigate.

    The New Daily confirmed with AFP sources that as of 9pm on Thursday there was no referral to the relevant line area of the posts by Ms Whelan.

    A spokesman for Mr Morrison insisted on Thursday night “it’s being referred’, but could not explain when or by whom. Ms Whelan first claimed she was referring the matter to “authorities” on Wednesday afternoon.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/05/02/federal-police-not-probing-doctored-post/

    So, hadn’t been referred to the AFP at all. He’s Liberal. He lies.

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