Happy trails: episode two

Another look at where the campaign has taken the two leaders, and what that might tell us about the state of play.

Click on the image at the bottom of the post and you will see an updated account of the electorates visited by the leaders during the campaign, more or less (there is an element of subjectivity as to what constitutes a visit). One of the salient points to emerge is the rather intensive focus on Tasmania, which remarkably played host to both leaders yesterday. Scott Morrison has spent three days over two visits – exactly equal to his record for Victoria, where he has targeted the five Liberal-held seats on margins of up to 6.4%, but not wasted effort on Dunkley, which is Liberal-held but notionally Labor. Bill Shorten’s visit to the state was likewise his second, but so far he’s spent two days in the state to Morrison’s three.

Western Australia also logged up some points this week, but this is largely due to the debate having been held there on Monday, and the practicality of hanging around afterwards given the distance involved. Nonetheless, it is notable that Morrison spent fully three days campaigning their compared with Shorten’s two, and that Morrison felt it worth his while to conduct a street walk in the electorate of Canning, situated well up the pendulum at 6.8%.

Bill Shorten is overdue for a visit to New South Wales, where he hasn’t been since he spent the first three full days of the campaign in Sydney. Nonetheless, the prize for the most targeted seat of the campaign so far would appear to be the Sydney seat of Reid, which has been visited three times by Scott Morrison, most recently on Sunday, and was also visited by Shorten on each of his three days in Sydney.

And while you’re about, note also the other new post below this one: episode three of Seat du Jour, covering the Melbourne seat of La Trobe.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Happy trails: episode two”

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  1. Speers is so much better than the amateurs at Seven who did the other debate. He’s so unsuited to the nutty far right dribble that Sky has become. He must cringe to be sharing airtime with whackos like Murray etc…

  4. “Will the surpluses be bigger?”

    They mean, “Will the domestic private sector deficits be bigger? Will the domestic private sector become more financially fragile and prone to a crisis?”

  8. Scotty says a lot, but the Libs have been in for 6 years and returning vets have gotten worse services

  10. “I believe the Post Office was a major repository for savings in Japan, can anyone concur?”

    A number of countries have “Post Office Savings” type arrangements.

    A long time ago, each Australian Post Office was an agency for the (then Government owned) Commonwealth Bank.

  11. The Department of Veterans Affairs ‘will always be there’ under a Labor government as well, ScuMo!

  19. CNN International
    ‏Verified account @cnni
    28m28 minutes ago

    The strongest tropical cyclone to hit India in 20 years made landfall Friday, killing two people and lashing the country’s east coast with ferocious winds and torrential downpours.

  20. What a stupid question. It should’ve been dismissed as too ridiculous. ‘I’ll take that as a comment’ as Tony Jones would say.

  25. Zoidlord @ #961 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 7:26 pm

    CNN International
    ‏Verified account @cnni
    28m28 minutes ago

    The strongest tropical cyclone to hit India in 20 years made landfall Friday, killing two people and lashing the country’s east coast with ferocious winds and torrential downpours.

    Climate Change.

  36. Bill – 39% is the increase in corporate profits since you last voted for Malcolm Turnbull, 5% increase in wages

    Scotty is absolutely flummoxed

  37. Australian Labor
    ‏Verified account @AustralianLabor

    “This is the killer number – 39% is the increase in corporate profits since you last voted for Malcolm Turnbull. Wages have moved by 5 or 6%.” – @billshortenmp #auspol #peoplesforum

  42. The longer Morrison talks the more threadbare his shtick becomes – that’s why he walks away from press conferences. He has no vision and no policies for another term. Which is not surprising because he had no vision or policies for this term, which is why he never wanted Parliament to sit – there was no legislation he wanted to pass, he just liked being PM for a while.

  47. “Labor managed money very well during the GFC.”

    They did. Rudd especially doesn’t get the credit he deserves for that.

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