Happy trails: episode two

Another look at where the campaign has taken the two leaders, and what that might tell us about the state of play.

Click on the image at the bottom of the post and you will see an updated account of the electorates visited by the leaders during the campaign, more or less (there is an element of subjectivity as to what constitutes a visit). One of the salient points to emerge is the rather intensive focus on Tasmania, which remarkably played host to both leaders yesterday. Scott Morrison has spent three days over two visits – exactly equal to his record for Victoria, where he has targeted the five Liberal-held seats on margins of up to 6.4%, but not wasted effort on Dunkley, which is Liberal-held but notionally Labor. Bill Shorten’s visit to the state was likewise his second, but so far he’s spent two days in the state to Morrison’s three.

Western Australia also logged up some points this week, but this is largely due to the debate having been held there on Monday, and the practicality of hanging around afterwards given the distance involved. Nonetheless, it is notable that Morrison spent fully three days campaigning their compared with Shorten’s two, and that Morrison felt it worth his while to conduct a street walk in the electorate of Canning, situated well up the pendulum at 6.8%.

Bill Shorten is overdue for a visit to New South Wales, where he hasn’t been since he spent the first three full days of the campaign in Sydney. Nonetheless, the prize for the most targeted seat of the campaign so far would appear to be the Sydney seat of Reid, which has been visited three times by Scott Morrison, most recently on Sunday, and was also visited by Shorten on each of his three days in Sydney.

And while you’re about, note also the other new post below this one: episode three of Seat du Jour, covering the Melbourne seat of La Trobe.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Happy trails: episode two”

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  1. bug1 says:

    On the aus-post bank thing, NZ started something like that 10 years ago. No idea how it turned out.

    Before being privatised they had a Post Office Savings Bank. The reincarnation is the Kiwibank. Still going. Won a few awards too.
    .
    .
    Kiwibank has won the Sunday Star Times/Cannex banking awards, in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012 for offering the best value across their range of products.It has also won New Zealand’s Most Trusted Bank at the Reader’s Digest Trusted Brand Awards from 2006 to 2017.

    Canstar Awards include:

    Bank of the Year for First Home Buyers 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2015, 2016, 2017
    Best Value Term Deposit Award 2015, 2014, 2016

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiwibank

  2. I had both the Guardian & PB up on my screen to follow the comments (mostly because I cannot stomach Morrisson in the real).
    I think I got a good idea of how this went. Overall a good result for Shorten, given that he is on the Murdoch channel.
    Agree Amy Rem is a great commentator.

  3. Speers: ‘What was wrong with the NEG?’

    Shorten: ‘Dutton didn’t like it. Tony didn’t like it.’

    Ouch!

  4. Space invader is the abiding memory of this debate …. Sky News reporters Laura Jayes and Kieren Gilbert tweeted about it…. the latter linking it to the Latham handshake…..

  5. Amy Remeikis having fun

    Shorten also brings up that emissions are not going down, they are going up.

    Which they are.

    That is, to invoke a hopefully-never-again-senator, an empirical fact.

    (hint – it was a Queenslander who happened to also be a UK citizen!)

  6. Corporate Australia is crying out for business certainty on reducing our GHGEs. That is all people need to know.

  7. Yabba,

    Thankyou for the Tas Mercury video link – much appreciated
    Have never seen Bill Shorten like this – if this Bill was able to be on high rotation on the MSM this election would be a lay down.

    He’s funny, and quick on his feet, across the detail of his policies.

  8. How many jobs were lost during the period we had carbon pricing? I recall the coalition saying Whyalla would be wiped out. How’s Whyalla travelling today?

  9. Scotty playing catch up, nonsensical numbers and lies

    Bill – ‘a load of rubbish’ we need more of a leader!

    Big finish, doing bugger all! We are a joke globally! On Climate Change

  10. Scotty in Shouty mode

    Bill says thank you for listening, closing stumps speech – has this nailed down

  11. 1892CFC says:

    Have never seen Bill Shorten like this

    Same here !! I like it. May there be much more of THIS Bill Shorten. We’ll know Shorten really cracked it big time if nath liked it 😆

  12. Morrison: ‘This is a government that can manage money.’

    Pigs arse! as former Liberal Party President, John Elliott, was wont to say.

  13. Bill Shorten always shows having people skills will win over those who only have media skills aka Scott Morrison

  14. 1892CFC

    Town Halls are tough – Shorten has done lots around the country and you get all sorts of “creeps, cranks and crackpots” to quote Tanya. Learning how to handle all sorts of questions and questioners takes time, but it pays off.

    A nice lead-in to the footy for you!

  15. 1. Domestic violence – Draw

    2. Franking credits – Morrison win

    3. Religious debate – Shorten win

    4. Headspace – Draw

    5. Australia Post – Draw

    6. Education/Accelerated learning – Shorten win

    7. Budget surplus – Draw

    8. Defence personnel support – Draw

    9. Tax spending transparency – Shorten win

    10. Climate change – Draw

    Rex’s Verdict: Shorten won the debate.

  16. Rocket Rocket @ #1031 Friday, May 3rd, 2019 – 7:42 pm

    1892CFC

    Town Halls are tough – Shorten has done lots around the country and you get all sorts of “creeps, cranks and crackpots” to quote Tanya. Learning how to handle all sorts of questions and questioners takes time, but it pays off.

    A nice lead-in to the footy for you!

    Go Pies!

  17. LOL central. Peta and Murray now on to discuss the debate , lordy it will be a sight to see them trying to portray Bill as a non winner .

  18. Just went to AFL website and found this

    https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-05-03/distressed-demon-rescued-in-pool-training-incident

    They need someone to tell them it is NEVER a good idea to try and stay under water holding your breath. A US Navy guy explained it to me (they had some Navy Seals die doing exercises planting fake mines on ships in snorkel gear) – your oxygen level becomes very low but the water pressure on your body keeps the ‘effective’ oxygen level OK. But then when you come up even from a few metres down this pressure effect disappears and you can die.

    I think its called shallow water drowning or something.

  19. “Rocket Rocket –
    1892CFC

    Town Halls are tough – Shorten has done lots around the country and you get all sorts of “creeps, cranks and crackpots” to quote Tanya. Learning how to handle all sorts of questions and questioners takes time, but it pays off.

    A nice lead-in to the footy for you!”

    Footy you say – must check the TV guide to see what you’re referring to 😉

  20. “10. Climate change – Draw”

    But the Coalition don’t have a climate change policy other than to sling the odd couple of million to mates to plant a few trees.

  21. “Speers is wasted on this shitty network. He’s been superb.”

    Absolutely. They must have him on really good money for him to be sticking around there. The contrast between him and the likes of Murray and Credlin is so stark.

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