BludgerTrack records a movement to the Coalition this week, but in keeping with the zeitgeist, this is more about changes in preference assumptions rather than voting intention. Specifically, I’ve decided to apply a crude 60-40 split in favour of the Coalition on One Nation preferences, as Newspoll has been doing since the start of last year.
A while back I came up with an elaborate mechanism to allocate One Nation preferences based on respondent-allocated two-party polling data, the true purpose of which was to produce a figure more favourable to the Coalition than the 50-50 split recorded in the 15 seats the party contested in 2016, which only partisan optimists (hello to you all) expect to be repeated this time. However, this has been increasingly ineffective due to the paucity of respondent-allocated results since ReachTEL’s national polling stopped around a year ago. It seemed to me that something needed to be done though, and I have been persuaded by the position of David Briggs at YouGov Galaxy that 60-40 is a conservative approximation (albeit an arbitrary one) given the preference flows at the last two state elections at which One Nation made a serious effort in lower house seats, namely Queensland (65.2% of preferences to the Liberal National Party) and Western Australia (60.6% to the Liberals).
I am not, however, convinced that the same thing should be done with the United Australia Party, as Newspoll has now started doing. The Palmer United Party had Labor last on every how-to-vote card in 2013, yet 46.3% of their voters still put Labor ahead of the Coalition. In addition to the impact of the heavily publicised preference deal, Briggs points to the fact that UAP voters in the latest Newspoll sample strongly favoured Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten on the question of trust, but this strikes me as thin gruel given the small sample size. Kevin Bonham makes the point that the Sinophobic bent of Palmer’s current campaign might be capturing a more right-wing audience than last time, which may well be so. However, he also makes the very good point that Palmer “may be taking Coalition-friendly voters from the Others pile, so the remaining Others may on balance be slightly Labor-leaning”.
All things considered, I don’t see enough reason to stop treating the UAP as part of the amorphous collection of “others” and to continue allocating its collective preferences as per the 2016 result, which was basically 50-50 – particularly not in the context of an election at which anti-government sentiment is harder than it was last time, based on all available evidence. In any case, I will not for the time being be making the effort to produce a trend measure from the UAP, whose primary vote will remain locked up in BludgerTrack’s aggregated “others” measure.
The upshot of all this is that the dial has moved 0.5% in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, but only 0.2% of this is due to the addition of the new polls this week from YouGov Galaxy, Newspoll and Essential Research. The Coalition has gained three on the seat projection, consisting of one each in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. The addition of new state data has smoothed off what hitherto seemed excessive movement in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, although it’s had the opposite effect in Western Australia. Labor continues to be credited with eight gains in Queensland, which seems rather a lot, but elsewhere the projections seem in line with what the major parties are expecting.
Full results can be accessed through the link below, which is permanently available on the sidebar.
And while you’re about, don’t miss the latest edition of Seat du Jour in the post below this one, covering Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson.
Bill Shorten has a beer. Pays the tariff.
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The Prime Minister and Opposition Leader both visited Agfest in Tasmania today. At the bar the guy pouring the beers says to Bill Shorten, “At least you paid Scomo didn’t pay.”
Leichhardt’s an interesting one. The last time it was won by a Lib that wasn’t Warren Entsch was never; the last time a conservative that wasn’t Entsch won was 1980.
But I know nothing about the local standing of current candidates. Anyone?
GG:
My lament for Australian politics:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-cF3Xftih0
I just watched last night’s 7.30 on Iview and I don’t know what the fuss was all about from some here. Shorten was nothing short of brilliant the way he dealt with all the questions. He was very relaxed, totally across every topic and looked very much like a PM in waiting.
Sales was also very good I thought. The questions were well thought out and challenging and gave Bill every chance to make his case. So full marks to her as well.
All in all a very worthwhile exercise from a Labor point of view and it will be very interesting to see how Morrison performs next week when the blowtorch is applied to HIS policies – or lack thereof.
The Liberals are door knocking my community in the Hazluck Electorate, the first time in 20 years I have lived here. Perhaps they are getting desperate.
The strident “Labor can’t be trusted with money” ad, with a piggy bank being smashed by a sledge hammer, is on high rotation during the channel nine football (by which I mean NRL).
It’s pure bullshit of course, but Labor has to call this out for the crap it is. The Coalition doubled the debt, they’re shovelling billions to business mates in all manner of dodgy and possibly corrupt deals with no accountability, to elite “private” schools, to millionaire retirees, throwing away hundreds of billions to give big business a tax cut. They’ve totally stuffed Climate and energy policy. The economy is about to go down the toilet.
Their bill arrives after the election if Australia is stupid enough to re-elect them.
Martin.
I assume you are factoring in any seats that Labor might lose in that projection?
Steve777
Dodgy deals
Very nicely put
Have ya got a spare mill or two and I’ll help ya put some adds together
Lefty_e
Care with using the LNP mantra “win win”
That sounds like the dodgy deal stuff now embedded within the basis of most LNP decisions
The public and voters aren’t included.
Morrison’s LNP government is a textbook example of right wing corruption.
Grab the loot and run.
Let’s all on this blog just thank our good health tonight and that of our family. Both Liberal and Labor candidates and pre poll party volunteers witnessed an elderly lady being killed in a truck accident out front of the North Sydney electorate, Crows Nest Pre poll centre this morning…..
If the Liberal candidate for Lyons hasn’t made a formal complaint to the AFP by sunrise tomorrow, Labor will be totally justified in calling for her to be disendorsed.
It’s now the second day in a row I’ve received mail from Trent Zimmerman asking me to vote for him *angry*
ItzaDream
The painting of Sales very much like Sales, trying to make something out of nothing.
Still, I’d like to be that capable
Re: torpedoes. They still happen regularly in rugby league. Adam Reynolds just did one about 10 minutes ago in the game that’s on right now. Was a huge torpedo bomb that Darius Boyd barely managed to catch.
I live in Wentworth and haven’t received any mail for any candidate, nor have I seen them, nor been door knocked. I’m at the stage where the first person to ask will get my vote!
High Street @ #713 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 6:27 pm
What? I missed that on the news this evening.
I’m in a safe Liberal seat. The only time they ever cared what I thought was in 2013 when they were trying to win it back after having lost it for a term for the first time ever in the seat’s history.
Firefox,
The torpedo bomb is a thing of beauty. Uncatchable.
Details will emerge that the two candidates disendorsed by the Libs yesterday is due to a Blue on Blue hit!
They are so ripe for picking here!
Tony Abbott: “We may very well recreate our own car industry.”
(see https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/tony-abbott-vs-zali-steggall-candidates-face-off-in-warringah-debate/news-story/58dbee1865940298af4ea7ad0e0803bf)
WTF? A guy destroys the car industry, now the same guy wants to recreate the car industry…
EGT:
And according to reports from those who were there, that comment from Abbott drew loud laughter from the audience 🙂
Confessions-
Lead story on SMH with Nine News footage
“What? I missed that on the news this evening.”
Crows Nest is a busy shopping, restaurant and business precinct not far from North Sydney. The accident was reported in the ABC Radio news this morning but probably didn’t make it into WA News bulletins.
“I assume you are factoring in any seats that Labor might lose in that projection?”
As per my previous email… 😉
Herbert is clearly at risk. I think Longman is safe but worst case scenario it’s a boilover loss. There are no others at risk. Average loss 0.5-1.3 seats.
Balanced against an average gain of something like 2 – 5.
“The torpedo bomb is a thing of beauty. Uncatchable.”
Indeed. They leave the fullback so vulnerable too as they give the kick chasers plenty of time to get to them while it’s in the air. If they do manage to catch it there’s a good chance they’ll get smashed by the chasers almost immediately.
Greensborough Growler @ #7843 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 8:37 pm
The GRASPers are rabid ferrets, taped tail to tail by industrial strength spite and let loose in Tony’s trousers. In 16 days, the survivors will struggle to crawl under the nearest News Corpse.
If a Murdoch hack makes this claim, presumably Steggall won in a canter.
Not sure if you lot noticed the poll on Page I posted late last night but it looks like it will be a Labor gain.
A misfired torpedo is pretty funny.
Julia Gillard in conversation tonight at Preston town hall. 600+ people. Standing ovation and cheered like a rockstar when arriving and leaving.
High Street @ #725 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 6:43 pm
Thanks. From your comment I had the impression this was some kind of polling booth/election related incident.
“If a Murdoch hack makes this claim, presumably Steggall won in a canter.”
She did. Abbott is in big trouble imo.
rhwombat @ #626 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 8:48 pm
Murdoch’s invisible cloke is very transparent.
DPRee @ #7854 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 8:51 pm
I still think this is 1972 redux.
Just sat down after a long day…
“At least you paid Scomo didn’t pay.”
Is that true.?
Can anyone tell me if the audience for Tony & Zali were drawn from Warringa?
From a SmearStralian reporter..
Lib source has told me revelations about Isaacs and Wills candidates were internal hits by warring Bastiaan and Okotel loyalists respectively. “One is ISIS. The other’s al-Qaeda.” #ausvotes
DPRee @ #733 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 6:51 pm
Were you there?
“Murdoch’s invisible cloke is very transparent.”
Instantly thought of this…
Darth Murdoch :O
“Just counting ahead only, and taking into account incumbency, if the above were results on May 18 it would be a net +5 seats to the ALP in QLD alone.
And that, my friends, would be the f&%$&*n BALL GAME.”
Yeah. Nah. The bookies haven’t considered yet the effect Pepe Le Pew and his EV roadshow from the southern states have had on Queensland sensibilities.
Malcolm Roberts is standing by PHoN candidate Ross ‘ladyboy’ Macdonald…
Greensborough Growler @ #7857 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 8:54 pm
Dishwashing liquid?
They’re soaking inYou’re choking on it!“Murdoch’s invisible cloke is very transparent.”
Well it would be, wouldn’t it.
“Dishwashing liquid?
They’re soaking inYou’re choking on it!Showing your age there.
I was at the Gillard event tonight. Grace, humility, humour, the whole package.
When pictures say it all.
DPRee @ #746 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 7:02 pm
Lucky you! She is all that and more in my view. History will judge her PMship and govt very differently in the years to come, if it isn’t already doing so.
Ophuph,
I think that Labor might be. And Greens state office might be.
I think Darebin branch is probably campaigning hard but it might be a bit smaller than it used to be.
Whether that’s smarter than PB we can all make up our own minds.
sprocket_ @ #7860 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 8:56 pm
Is that a second source from GG’s? If so, it’s DEFCON 1. Add the Whelan debacle and the ScuMo bus just sank in Bass Straight.
Confessions @ #7869 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 9:05 pm
JG for GG.
Feeling optimistic – high pre-poll points to those who made up their minds ages ago – how long now has Labor led the polls…….?
“I was at the Gillard event tonight. Grace, humility, humour, the whole package.”
It’s depressing to compare the grace and dignity of Julia Gillard with the malevolent bumbling oaf who following her, the waffling ineffectual absence who followed the oaf and then the dodgy shouty ad man who came next.
Australia deserves so much better. Or maybe not if it’s stupid enough to return these clowns.