BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor

‘Tis the season for readjusting preference allocations – but for which the BludgerTrack poll aggregate reading would have gone all but unchanged this week.

BludgerTrack records a movement to the Coalition this week, but in keeping with the zeitgeist, this is more about changes in preference assumptions rather than voting intention. Specifically, I’ve decided to apply a crude 60-40 split in favour of the Coalition on One Nation preferences, as Newspoll has been doing since the start of last year.

A while back I came up with an elaborate mechanism to allocate One Nation preferences based on respondent-allocated two-party polling data, the true purpose of which was to produce a figure more favourable to the Coalition than the 50-50 split recorded in the 15 seats the party contested in 2016, which only partisan optimists (hello to you all) expect to be repeated this time. However, this has been increasingly ineffective due to the paucity of respondent-allocated results since ReachTEL’s national polling stopped around a year ago. It seemed to me that something needed to be done though, and I have been persuaded by the position of David Briggs at YouGov Galaxy that 60-40 is a conservative approximation (albeit an arbitrary one) given the preference flows at the last two state elections at which One Nation made a serious effort in lower house seats, namely Queensland (65.2% of preferences to the Liberal National Party) and Western Australia (60.6% to the Liberals).

I am not, however, convinced that the same thing should be done with the United Australia Party, as Newspoll has now started doing. The Palmer United Party had Labor last on every how-to-vote card in 2013, yet 46.3% of their voters still put Labor ahead of the Coalition. In addition to the impact of the heavily publicised preference deal, Briggs points to the fact that UAP voters in the latest Newspoll sample strongly favoured Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten on the question of trust, but this strikes me as thin gruel given the small sample size. Kevin Bonham makes the point that the Sinophobic bent of Palmer’s current campaign might be capturing a more right-wing audience than last time, which may well be so. However, he also makes the very good point that Palmer “may be taking Coalition-friendly voters from the Others pile, so the remaining Others may on balance be slightly Labor-leaning”.

All things considered, I don’t see enough reason to stop treating the UAP as part of the amorphous collection of “others” and to continue allocating its collective preferences as per the 2016 result, which was basically 50-50 – particularly not in the context of an election at which anti-government sentiment is harder than it was last time, based on all available evidence. In any case, I will not for the time being be making the effort to produce a trend measure from the UAP, whose primary vote will remain locked up in BludgerTrack’s aggregated “others” measure.

The upshot of all this is that the dial has moved 0.5% in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, but only 0.2% of this is due to the addition of the new polls this week from YouGov Galaxy, Newspoll and Essential Research. The Coalition has gained three on the seat projection, consisting of one each in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. The addition of new state data has smoothed off what hitherto seemed excessive movement in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, although it’s had the opposite effect in Western Australia. Labor continues to be credited with eight gains in Queensland, which seems rather a lot, but elsewhere the projections seem in line with what the major parties are expecting.

Full results can be accessed through the link below, which is permanently available on the sidebar.

And while you’re about, don’t miss the latest edition of Seat du Jour in the post below this one, covering Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

790 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor”

  1. jenauthor says:
    Thursday, May 2, 2019 at 11:08 pm

    Henry, missed half the debate because SKY crossed to Shorten’s presser (which was probably more informative anyway) but what I did see didn’t enlighten too much — I admit to having a particular dislike the Greg the lyin’ Hunt so I don’t know that I can be objective, but I noticed that like everything else, they have no real platform, more of the same basically. KIng acquitted herself well, but I saw no ‘knock-out’ blow (apart from the extensive plans Labor has) from the discussion.

    From the Guardian blog, it seems the Liberal’s only achievement in Health was the approval of new medicines.

    There was nothing else Hunt talked about except Labor.

  2. michael says:
    Thursday, May 2, 2019 at 11:06 pm

    State QLD Labor just killed Adani again due to the finch. This is going to go down really well in certain QLD seats. Thanks Trad.

    If that’s what the science says, then that’s the way it should be.

  3. Thanks for that Jen. As I thought Hunt has little to campaign on and Catherine king is competent but not a stellar performer on the hustings.
    Cheers.

  4. Shame on SOME of you Labor lot for falling for blatant Murdoch/Liberal lies and misinformation. So blinded are you by your hatred of the Greens that you’re willing to side with the Murdoch press and Liberal Senator Hume. That you would immediately side with the far right instead of bothering to get the actual facts speaks volumes about what side you’re really on, and it certainly isn’t the left/progressive side.

    ***

    “Only by taking my comments wilfully out of context could anyone arrive at the ­conclusion that I was arguing my personal beliefs and not on a fine point of jurisprudence,” he said. “My views were then, and remain now, that forced ­female genital mutilation should be banned.” -Julian Burnside

    ***

    The following is from the original speech he gave which has been COMPLETELY misrepresented by the right…

    “I do not support, or approve of, mutilation generally or genital mutilation in particular”

    You should all apologise for blindly regurgitating far right Liberal propaganda and DEFAMING this good man.

  5. “Can’t beat his Labor opponent fair and square.”

    Bandt has had terrible trouble defeating opponents fair and square. He really must be running scared by Creasey.

  6. Will only put one federal seat at risk, but then, open up more opportunities in the South East where Adani is on the nose.
    Be careful what you wish for. LOL!

  7. I humbly apologise for NOT blindly regurgitating far right Liberal propaganda and NOT defaming a good man and thus making you claim defamatory as I am part of the all.

  8. I met a full-tank racist and religious bigot today. I’m still reeling from the shock. The racist describes himself as a National Socialist and the Lecture On sign was showing. The Lib-Libs were pleased to have him in their tent, to pass the time between voters with him.

    He was stumping for ON’s candidate, who I’ve also met, and who is running as a proud bigot; a bigot with a lot to say, as far as she’s concerned. They are simpletons at large.

  9. Barney, did you not see that Firefox was referring to SOME people in their post? Not my capitals either so it should have been difficult to miss that I would have thought

  10. “Bandt has had terrible trouble defeating opponents fair and square. He really must be running scared by Creasey.”

    Considering he’s beaten BOTH the Liberals and Labor at the same time, three times in a row, I think he’s doing just fine lol

  11. Sorry but LOL at anyone who thinks that the Qld Govt decision was somehow done without some kind of communication with the Federal Party …

  12. Firefox:

    Julian Burnside is on the record as saying female genital mutilation should be carried out in this country.

    No facile arguments dressed up in legalise excuses this. The Greens would never forgive a Labor candidate for saying such a thing. But here you are defending a 40 year member of a racist, misogynist club. A person who has attacked sex workers and a defender of Bill Leak.

    I’m sure on you’re on board with the candidacy of Andrew Bartlett too. A man who physically assaulted on the floor of parliament.

    Why won’t the Greens hold their own candidates to the same standards they demand of others?

  13. Quoting Julian Burnside:

    “In its most minimal form FGM is indistinguishable from male circumcision in terms of its extremity, if anything it’s probably less extreme.

    “I would say at a pragmatic level, that if FGM is tolerated without being embraced, it may be that that will induce people to have it performed in more hygienic circumstances less likely to lead to medical consequences than will be the case if it is done despite the prohibition and therefore done in more difficult circumstances.

    Can you imagine the howling of the Green woke blokes if it was a Labor candidate who said such things?

  14. Male genital mutilation ie circumcision is carried out much more frequently than FGM in Australia. Quite a few indigenous tribes have rituals relating to female and male genital incision.

  15. J341983 says:
    Thursday, May 2, 2019 at 10:16 pm
    Not that I’m fond of middle-class welfare, but it’s not $174k individuals, but $174k household.

    Let’s just be clear and fair about this.

    So you think $174k households need welfare?

    Seriously?

  16. @William

    If Morgan also releases a poll this coming week as well, that’ll be 3 in a row. At that point do you think you might include them?

  17. mace says:
    Thursday, May 2, 2019 at 10:14 pm
    Sportsbet has Labor 1.52 and Liberal 2.40 in Pearce. If I was a gambling man there would be easy money to be made on Pearce.

    Loaded up on Labor @ $1.52.

    Don’t know why the franking credit whinging brigade haven’t either.

    Poor judges.

  18. “Can you imagine the howling of the Green woke blokes if it was a Labor candidate who said such things?”

    ***

    No because we wouldn’t be stupid enough to be conned by a complete misrepresentation as you have. He clearly stated in black and white that he does not support genital mutilation. End of story.

  19. About Bill paying for his beer at the Agfest bar and Morrison walking out without paying.

    The killer line would have been Bill offering to pay for the cheapskate, entitled spiv’s beer.

  20. DVC says:
    “Friday, May 3, 2019 at 12:33 am
    @William

    If Morgan also releases a poll this coming week as well, that’ll be 3 in a row. At that point do you think you might include them?”

    Morgan polls are worse than Newspoll in their efforts to glorify the coalition.

    Directors have direct connections to the Liberal Party.

  21. Firefox. What we see presently is Adam Bandt demanding a Labor candidate step down for Facebook posts.

    But he also stands shoulder to shoulder with a man who thinks FGM should be practiced in this country (even if might personally feel it’s a bad thing) and another man who assaulted a woman on the floor of parliament.

    Why won’t the Greens hold their own candidates to the same standard they demand of others?

  22. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Friday, May 3, 2019 at 12:54 am

    About Bill paying for his beer at the Agfest bar and Morrison walking out without paying.

    The killer line would have been Bill offering to pay for the cheapskate, entitled spiv’s beer.

    Does this go to the Liberals mentality of expecting some things to be free?

    HelloWorld!!!

  23. Nath and Tristo,

    Tristo
    says:
    Thursday, May 2, 2019 at 11:40 am
    @nath
    Not if Anthony Albanese was proposing negative gearing and franking dividend reform changes. I suspect that is depressing the Labor vote a fair bit. However I don’t believe it will affect the vote for “Liberal” Independents who generally aren’t support those proposals.
    ________________________________________
    That’s an interesting point and an argument for why they should have introduced them during their first term rather than announce them before the election. A change of government election should all be about maximising your seats and vote for the long haul.

    Sorry to chime in so late – other side of the world and all that – but Labor needed to upfront about where the money is coming from to support their expenditure on climate change, health and early childhood education. Also, it would not matter who the leader of the ALP was, the same propaganda campaign would have been run.

    Labor may lose the election because of being honest about these (IMHO) much needed reforms to make out tax system more progressive (rather than regressive, in the economic sense). But the alternative would have been to be a small target, and then “change it all when we get in”.

    There is no way the small target strategy will work in the current hostile media environment (see e.g. The Monthly article by Richard Cooke: https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/may/1556632800/richard-cooke/news-corp-democracy-s-greatest-threat ).

    So, either Australia votes in Labor because they are willing to see a redress in our taxation system, with less going to those who already have a lot, to pursue a more socially inclusive agenda, or Labor loses because the majority of Australians believe they individually will be financially better off under the current mob, and have no understanding that a more equal society produces better economic and social results for all denizens.

    At the moment, like Andrew Earlwood, I think the “vibe” suggests the coalition will be returned. And do not forget that Andrew correctly shared with us that the Labor vote collapsed in NSW in the week before the state election. He also posted about 3 pm on the Sat of the NSW election that the Berejiklian government would be returned with a majority. He has his finger on the pulse.

    Why do I mention this?

    1) Because this is the situation, and
    2) Those who assumed that Labor would romp home in this election, and so could be forced to agree to implement the objectives of other political parties “or else”, should perhaps be thinking about how they can achieve their goals with a (very right-wing) Coalition government in power.

  24. “Firefox. What we see presently is Adam Bandt demanding a Labor candidate step down for Facebook posts.

    But he also stands shoulder to shoulder with a man who thinks FGM should be practiced in this country (even if might personally feel it’s a bad thing) and another man who assaulted a woman on the floor of parliament.

    Why won’t the Greens hold their own candidates to the same standard they demand of others?”

    Creasey has admitted he did the wrong thing.

    Burnside has stood by what he said because he didn’t say anything wrong.

    The two cases could not be more different and the fact that you’re even trying to lump them in together screams of desperation. In fact, that’s exactly why this has happened in the first place.

    The Liberals are in full on panic mode because they’re in severe danger of losing Kooyong. Their propaganda arm, the Murdoch press, has done what it always does and is making the Greens out to be something they’re not.

    The fact that SOME Labor supporters have jumped on this is so revealing. It would appear they are becoming desperate too.

    Very simply put, Burnside was making the valid point that if you ban forced FGM then you must also ban forced male genital mutilation too, which includes the act of circumcision, among other procedures. He made it crystal clear that he does not support any genital mutilation and a claim to the contrary is flat out false.

    As for Bartlett – who by the way is still campaigning heavily despite just recently having his prostate removed because of cancer – what he did while he was in the Democrats was wrong. Absolutely no argument there. He was an alcoholic and he has undergone a personal journey to conquer his demons. HE STOOD DOWN and resigned as leader of the Democrats.

    Creasey should follow Bartlett’s lead and sit this election out. He’s young and I’m sure he’ll have an opportunity to return to politics in the future, just as Bartlett has.

  25. High Street @ #610 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 8:27 pm

    Let’s all on this blog just thank our good health tonight and that of our family. Both Liberal and Labor candidates and pre poll party volunteers witnessed an elderly lady being killed in a truck accident out front of the North Sydney electorate, Crows Nest Pre poll centre this morning…..

    Todays media is saying she and her husband were only in the suburb to pre poll.

    83 year old. of Indian heritage, relatively new Australian Citizens and voting for the first time.

    Horrific.

    I was there earlier in the morning.

  26. ‘Absolute genius.’

    Agree. Cartoon of the campaign.

    And even more profound when you factor in Labor’s loss on May 18.

    If only Labor had been able to cut through as effectively.

  27. 3Z,

    I’ve seen some pretty ridiculous anti-Green commentary in my time lurking on this forum, but your recent contributions take the cake.

    Burnside is making a speech about the difficulty in using absolutist moral positions to make legal justifications. At no point does he say that FGM “should” be practiced. He says that:

    “I suggest that disapproval, however vehement, does not automatically mean the practice should be prohibited. Perhaps it should, perhaps not.”

    It’s a point of logic that just because you personally don’t like something isn’t sufficient grounds, in and of itself for that thing to be banned. It is not support for the position.

    Your defamatory diatribes to the contrary are possibly the most disgusting thing I’ve ever read here.

  28. Meanwhile England and NI voting in council elections, and the English wide count of council seats to this point is…
    Conservative 1236 (-442) > Labour 902 (-79) > Liberal Democrat 564 (+304) > Green 48 (+42) >
    UKIP 17 (-54) Others 364 (+229).

    Incredibly (in my view) some tories are interpreting this as a sign to get on and deliver Brexit.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48142181

  29. That religious freedom question at the start of the sky debate reminded me of a similar question at a debate between Andrews and Guy (a safe schools critic) in the Victorian election. At the time I thought, dangerous ground for Dan, but he stood his ground, didnt flinch and carefully explained the gov’s position. Similar response from Bill S tonight. But is Australia Victoria?

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