BludgerTrack records a movement to the Coalition this week, but in keeping with the zeitgeist, this is more about changes in preference assumptions rather than voting intention. Specifically, I’ve decided to apply a crude 60-40 split in favour of the Coalition on One Nation preferences, as Newspoll has been doing since the start of last year.
A while back I came up with an elaborate mechanism to allocate One Nation preferences based on respondent-allocated two-party polling data, the true purpose of which was to produce a figure more favourable to the Coalition than the 50-50 split recorded in the 15 seats the party contested in 2016, which only partisan optimists (hello to you all) expect to be repeated this time. However, this has been increasingly ineffective due to the paucity of respondent-allocated results since ReachTEL’s national polling stopped around a year ago. It seemed to me that something needed to be done though, and I have been persuaded by the position of David Briggs at YouGov Galaxy that 60-40 is a conservative approximation (albeit an arbitrary one) given the preference flows at the last two state elections at which One Nation made a serious effort in lower house seats, namely Queensland (65.2% of preferences to the Liberal National Party) and Western Australia (60.6% to the Liberals).
I am not, however, convinced that the same thing should be done with the United Australia Party, as Newspoll has now started doing. The Palmer United Party had Labor last on every how-to-vote card in 2013, yet 46.3% of their voters still put Labor ahead of the Coalition. In addition to the impact of the heavily publicised preference deal, Briggs points to the fact that UAP voters in the latest Newspoll sample strongly favoured Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten on the question of trust, but this strikes me as thin gruel given the small sample size. Kevin Bonham makes the point that the Sinophobic bent of Palmer’s current campaign might be capturing a more right-wing audience than last time, which may well be so. However, he also makes the very good point that Palmer “may be taking Coalition-friendly voters from the Others pile, so the remaining Others may on balance be slightly Labor-leaning”.
All things considered, I don’t see enough reason to stop treating the UAP as part of the amorphous collection of “others” and to continue allocating its collective preferences as per the 2016 result, which was basically 50-50 – particularly not in the context of an election at which anti-government sentiment is harder than it was last time, based on all available evidence. In any case, I will not for the time being be making the effort to produce a trend measure from the UAP, whose primary vote will remain locked up in BludgerTrack’s aggregated “others” measure.
The upshot of all this is that the dial has moved 0.5% in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, but only 0.2% of this is due to the addition of the new polls this week from YouGov Galaxy, Newspoll and Essential Research. The Coalition has gained three on the seat projection, consisting of one each in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. The addition of new state data has smoothed off what hitherto seemed excessive movement in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, although it’s had the opposite effect in Western Australia. Labor continues to be credited with eight gains in Queensland, which seems rather a lot, but elsewhere the projections seem in line with what the major parties are expecting.
Full results can be accessed through the link below, which is permanently available on the sidebar.
And while you’re about, don’t miss the latest edition of Seat du Jour in the post below this one, covering Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson.
Do you ever sleep William Bowe?
It doesn’t look like it, does it! 😯
I’m only up early, for me, because 3 days of Pre Poll has left me a physical wreck and even lying down doesn’t relieve the pain entirely. Not that I’m feeling sorry for myself or anything because this election is so important I will go that extra mile and suffer the consequences. I’ll live.
And I’m not the candidate, who has to stand there all day, every day! 😳
What is it about freaking Donald Trump that he can make apparently intelligent adults prostitute themselves for him!?!
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/history-will-judge-you-harshly-trump-s-attorney-general-faces-calls-to-resign-20190502-p51j8g.html
It’s not as if Trump’s a successful President of the United States who is achieving great things, he’s barely able to tie his shoelaces on his own. So why are people who are more intelligent than him throwing away their reputations to enable him!?!
Even the Democrats seem to be scared of Trump, in that they don’t want to say publicly what they have to be saying privately, for fear of upsetting his mythical, all-powerful ‘base’ which they want to get out to vote for them.
Thank goodness we have Compulsory Voting in this country and don’t have to put up with this sort of shenanigans.
Well, only B Grade shenanigans. 🙂
Can you believe that the Coalition are going to attack what was basically their own Climate Change policy from back when Malcolm Turnbull was PM and Josh Frydenburg was Environment Minister? Well, they are, using Dodgy Brothers economic modelling by Brian Fisher, that even noted conservative economist, Warwick McKibbon, says is based upon dodgy and overblown assumptions!
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/new-modelling-to-unleash-explosive-row-over-climate-change-costings-20190501-p51j5e.html
C@tmomma @ #5 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 6:13 am
Didn’t stop Fisher getting a run on early AM on ABC local radio here in Brisbane. More or less touted as Fisher answering the question that Shorten “refused” to answer on 730
We’ll allow William to sleep for a few weeks after the election till we need our polling fix again.
Doesn’t necessarily sound like a wonderful person, but he’s our problem to deal with not someone else’s.
I think it’s the right decision.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-02/dutton-deportation-order-on-uk-citizen-sex-offender-lost-appeal/11064714
RN brekkie kicks off with Labor under pressure on climate policy costings and some new figures put out suggesting the cost is something like eleventy trillion dollars or something.
ajm @ #6 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 6:18 am
The ABC has been captured by the Coalition. Simple as that.
That report doesn’t answer ‘the question Bill Shorten refuses to answer’ at all! It answers a dodgy question put to it by the Coalition after they decided that the Coal Dinosaurs would rule their party!
Looks like the ABC and the Coalition know the cost of everything, and the value of nothing.
This will be the ABC line all day.
And they’ll probably not give Mark Butler or anyone from Labor a chance to respond.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/price-labors-carbon-cuts-yes-you-can/news-story/4aae9813f8fc2a92789ad5c8f74974c2
I note that others are on to this enticing piece of experimental ♫crap to ♪me ♫loo my ♫darling.
The comments are enlightening- although the following is interesting.
However – from the contenders for — ❓
And so it goes —–
Coffee and toast for two please Muriel. ☕ 🍞
adrian @ #12 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 6:41 am
They’ve obviously been fed it direct from Coalition Disinformation HQ.
C@tmomma says: Thursday, May 2, 2019 at 5:55 am
What is it about freaking Donald Trump that he can make apparently intelligent adults prostitute themselves for him!?!
**************************************************************
James Comey: How Trump Co-opts Leaders Like Bill Barr
Accomplished people lacking inner strength can’t resist the compromises necessary to survive this president.
It starts with your sitting silent while he lies, both in public and private, making you complicit by your silence. In meetings with him, his assertions about what “everyone thinks” and what is “obviously true” wash over you, unchallenged, as they did at our private dinner on Jan. 27, 2017, because he’s the president and he rarely stops talking. As a result, Mr. Trump pulls all of those present into a silent circle of assent.
Speaking rapid-fire with no spot for others to jump into the conversation, Mr. Trump makes everyone a co-conspirator to his preferred set of facts, or delusions. I have felt it — this president building with his words a web of alternative reality and busily wrapping it around all of us in the room.
MORE : https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/01/opinion/william-barr-testimony.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
C@t
Trotting out crackpot Brian Fisher – front page of both the AFR and the SmearStralian is a Come in Spinner moment. What does Labor want?
– action on Climate Change on the front page
– big numbers, the bigger the better
– an easy and telling answer to the inevitable questions from the MSM sheep
The answer specifically to Fisher’s dodgy modelling is it is a narrow and shallow effort. Economic modelling is all about assumptions and sensitivities.
Fisher, for example, assumes that the atmosphere of the planet is free to pollute, consequences like extreme weather events, biodiversity extinctions etc are secondary effects, and do not need to be costed. I could go on – I’m sure Labor spokespeople will.
As for sensitivities, Fisher assumes the carbon pollution cap and other incentives/disincentives across the 4 quadrants of Labor’s policies will have precisely zero impact on industry, farmers, consumers, motorists behaviour – they will all just accept the yoke of unfair government, slowly go broke. Idiot. And the bigger fool is David Crowe for peddling this crackpot.
Come in Spinner
Thanks William, I agree, there isn’t enough data to estimate UAP preferences.
There is a long article in the SMH on Zali Steggal’s supporters, typically Liberal voting women. Sorry no link.
From the article it is clear her supporters expect her to support the Coalition in the event of a minority government. Economically she would make McGowan look like the socialist left. Having said that, she would be representing the electorate.
Link:
‘We’ve got a dilemma’: Meet the ‘Liberal’ backers of Zali Steggall out to retire Tony Abbott
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/we-ve-got-a-dilemma-meet-the-liberal-backers-of-zali-steggall-out-to-retire-tony-abbott-20190501-p51j37.html
sprocket,
At least David Crowe, in the body of his article, laid out the reasons why Fisher’s assumptions are fly-blown. Something it appears the ABC isn’t doing.
Mike Carlton@MikeCarlton01
Just watched the @abc730 report on franking credits. Pains me to say so, but it was biased, unbalanced. Shamefully so. Honestly, I was quite shocked at how unprofessional it was.
A bit more on Climate Change Come in Spinner moment
How do you cut through to the information poor disengaged, especially the younger demographics, late in the campaign when some are coming to realise they have to vote? Climate Change is a top 3 issue, with a bullet, and a party promising action is likely to attract preferences.
I see today’s announcement for Bill is apprenticeship support and funding for renewable industries, there is a heap of similar small components to be announced each day for the rest of the campaign, as evidence of action on Climate Change – similar to the dribble out of cancer funding initiatives in the first week.
The ones who are carrying on over Labor’s climate policy is the pro coalition media and newsltd/corp hacks, and mainly the rusted on coalition supporters, again this is not going to get the libs/nats much support from those non coalition voters who say there has to be something done about climate change.
Oh to be a journalist working for Murdoch. You write a story, and the editorial shills add in lies to push their agenda – in this case that GetUp is funding independents #auspol #ausvotes
Scott @ #22 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 6:59 am
Exactly. Even the formerly rusted-on Liberal voters in Abbott’s electorate say Climate Change has to be addressed!
Prime Minister Scott Morrison will continue his campaign efforts in Launceston.
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s election pitch continues in Melbourne.
09:00 AM
United Australia Party leader Clive Palmer will address the media in Adelaide.
10:00 AM
Families and Social Services Minister Paul Fletcher will join Warringah MP Tony Abbott in Sydney to unveil the Coalition’s plan for supporting people with a disability.
12:30 PM
Health Minister Greg Hunt and Shadow Health Minister Catherine King will go head-to head for their portfolio debate at the National Press Club in Canberra.
04:30 PM
Live on Sky News
Political Editor David Speers will moderate the Sky News/Manly Daily Warringah Debate between Tony Abbott and Zali Steggall.
05:30 PM
Liberal candidate for the Sydney seat of Wentworth, Dave Sharma, will be hosting a ‘Drinks with Dave’ event at the Royal Oak in Double Bay.
And David Speers better not try a bs costings question about Climate Change action, based upon Fisher’s dodgy modelling, when he moderates the debate between Abbott and Steggall!
Those shenanigans at the Australian tie in very well with Richard Cooke’s article on News Ltd in the Monthly.
Hewson’s GST birthday cake
John Hewson made a couple of fatal errors ,
1- It was during the leaders debate
2-Not because Mike Willesee was the one who asked the question , but Paul Keating was sitting opposite to Hewson, which probably was the main factor of Hewson’s being Nervous
—–
Where Bill Shorten has been transparent in answering how much Labor’s costing will be
Morning all. Quite apart from the dubious way RW pundits are inventing fake costs of Labor’s climate change policy, they omit to mention that the coalition policy, despite costing billions, will not work.
https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/emissions-from-big-polluters-will-fully-erode-the-benefits-of-coalition-s-climate-policy-20190501-p51j1o.html
Burgey @ #27 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 7:09 am
Link? 🙂
As for the Vic Libs, after jettisoning six candidates (did Pauline Hanson help pick them?) there are still questions why they have not let a seventh go? He seems to have similar attitudes to the others.
https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/liberal-candidate-linked-same-sex-marriage-to-paedophilia-20190426-p51hij.html
So who is paying Fisher ? Shills like him always do it for a nice rewarding fee/sinecure or is he a genuine freelance idiot ?
adrian @ #20 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 4:54 am
I watched it and thought it was ridiculous. A man sitting on his yacht whining about having taxpayer funded tax refund taken from him, tax he’d never paid in the first place. Most voters would’ve been with me: laughing our asses off.
I don’t think Fisher’s bullshit report will have any effect on voting intentions..
..most voters (especially, but not only, young voters) accept the science & want meaningful action on global warming..
..this report has huge numbers which mean nothing to most voters, and voters know the Tories can’t/won’t get their act together regarding climate/energy policy..
..the numbers won’t matter, the fact that Labor is taking action will..
C@tmomma @ #29 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 7:15 am
May be this one =—
https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/may/1556632800/richard-cooke/news-corp-democracy-s-greatest-threat
WOW Just caught up with Bill vs. Leigh Sales. He hit it out of the park.
I’ve watched a lot of politics and politicians over the past 70 years and that was one of the most confident and prepared leaders I can remember.
What was particularly impressive was his ability to defend and explain what are unpopular proposals for many Australians.
He obviously brought to the interview a new and very effective strategy for dealing with hostile interviewers like Sales, looking for her “birthday cake” moment. He jumped in and refused to let her characterize his positions and then got across what he wanted to say, calmly and effectively.
And those two witnesses for the prosecution who apparently came to Australia from the U.K. should have been asked why they left their homeland. Was it to find a better lifestyle, which they obviously have enjoyed, and for which they apparently now don’t want to pay their fair share?
I have it thus:
Reported ALP TPP weighted by sample size 51.21
Calculated ALP TPP from average preference flow rates 51.05
ALP TPP corrected for “House Effect” 51.19
So, I think the reporteds are pretty close to the mark
Confessions,
I agree.
Anytime a retiree with a $500,000 plus super balance who pays no tax blabs on about how unfair it is to take away his refund from the government does labor no harm at all. Throw in the yacht for some extra pity and there you go.
beguiledagain @ #36 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 6:56 am
..my take as well..
Cat
Thanks for your work – it will all be worth it. Look after yourself.
doyley:
I had more sympathy for the other guy, but even he admitted he could solve the problem by simply moving his superannuation to an industry super fund! If it can work for him, then surely others can get around Labor’s franking credits policy by doing the same.
Throwing around figures like .2 or .8% hit to GDP or a five hundred zillion dollar hit to the economy etc etc achieves nothing. It goes over the head of everyone. It is not real.
Labor will continue to prosecute its case and Mark Butler has been very good in this respect.
Concentrating on abstract costs will do nothing for the coalition except confirm their complete disinterest in achieving anything for the environment.
Just my take.
Angus Taylor popping his head above the parapet on RN brekkie now.
I swear, if Fran doesn’t ask him about the $80 mil and the Caymans, I will lose my shit.
Barney: “Doesn’t necessarily sound like a wonderful person, but he’s our problem to deal with not someone else’s. I think it’s the right decision.”
I respectfully, but strongly, disagree (at least in a policy sense: I’m not a lawyer, so I’m not disputing the legality of the decision).
If you aren’t a citizen, but you want to keep living in Australia, then you ought to abide by our laws and stay out of gaol. It isn’t too difficult a task for the majority of people.
I have some sympathy for the criminals who get deported to NZ, in that I think that they could reasonably argue that New Zealanders and Australians should have an expectation of being able to move freely back and forth across the Tasman. But this bloke was a UK citizen, so why would it be reasonable for him – having broken our laws on a number of occasions and with increasing seriousness – to expect to be allowed to stay in our country on release from prison?
While I accept that I don’t know all the details of this particular case, I find the comments of Degning’s lawyer’s – as reported – difficult to accept:
“”The whole idea that people with that level of connection to Australia can be deported on the most tenuous grounds when there is no cogent reasoning that they are a future risk to the Australian community is an extraordinary policy…[It’s] wrong [and] not a fair policy — in reality, it’s a policy to break up families.”
Degning reportedly had a long criminal history – drugs, assault, etc. – culminating in a conviction for “having sexual intercourse with a person with cognitive impairment.” I don’t know about the rest of you, but I’m inclined to think that the Government’s policy grounds (as opposed to legal technical grounds) for wanting to remove this bloke from Australia could hardly be described as “tenuous”.
And while it arguable that his removal from our country might tend to break up his family, it’s also the case that crimes involving drugs, assault and unlawful sexual intercourse can also have a devastating impact on the families of the victims.
Degning’s lawyer Stephen Blanks has pursued many important civil rights issues over his career. This is a brilliant victory for him, but I’m not so sure about the rest of us.
Candidate disendorsememt / fire / quit watch
Faine reports the Liberal candidate in Lyons might be under a cloud due to her comments on social media
Thanks for the links C@t.
The result in Wentworth and Warringah will be interesting to see how much the voters have turned off the Liberal Party. My opinion is that both will be returned. August last year isn’t that long ago, especially for voters that do not follow politics closely.
You have to wonder why deleting their old social media comments isn’t one of the first things they do when deciding to run for office.
David Crowe kicks off the costings war, with the headline saying it will be “explosive” (for Labor). He takes the “cost” from $250-odd billion to $540-odd billion in the space of a single sentence. He does note that other economists reckon the numbers are ridiculous, but does not provide any of these figures.
They’re clearly just making stuff up.
The Coalition – and its media shills like Crowe, who print rubbish like this – have given up all pretence of combating Climate Change, or caring about it. If Australians fall for this “$Hundred-million-billion-trillion-gazillion” pea-and-thimble trick again they deserve all they cop as a result.
I find it amazing this government is so competitive in the opinion polls, a lot of people must be scared over negative gearing and franking dividends changes Labor is proposing. If the polls continue to get closer to say 51-49% on election, there I believe could be a good chance of a hung parliament with ‘Liberal’ Independents holding the balance of power.
The cross-bench could be considerable, I have hearing that Barnaby Joyce might be in serious trouble in New England.
Confessions: “You have to wonder why deleting their old social media comments isn’t one of the first things they do when deciding to run for office.”
There’s no point: you can delete them from your own accounts, but you can’t delete them from everywhere they end up going.