BludgerTrack records a movement to the Coalition this week, but in keeping with the zeitgeist, this is more about changes in preference assumptions rather than voting intention. Specifically, I’ve decided to apply a crude 60-40 split in favour of the Coalition on One Nation preferences, as Newspoll has been doing since the start of last year.
A while back I came up with an elaborate mechanism to allocate One Nation preferences based on respondent-allocated two-party polling data, the true purpose of which was to produce a figure more favourable to the Coalition than the 50-50 split recorded in the 15 seats the party contested in 2016, which only partisan optimists (hello to you all) expect to be repeated this time. However, this has been increasingly ineffective due to the paucity of respondent-allocated results since ReachTEL’s national polling stopped around a year ago. It seemed to me that something needed to be done though, and I have been persuaded by the position of David Briggs at YouGov Galaxy that 60-40 is a conservative approximation (albeit an arbitrary one) given the preference flows at the last two state elections at which One Nation made a serious effort in lower house seats, namely Queensland (65.2% of preferences to the Liberal National Party) and Western Australia (60.6% to the Liberals).
I am not, however, convinced that the same thing should be done with the United Australia Party, as Newspoll has now started doing. The Palmer United Party had Labor last on every how-to-vote card in 2013, yet 46.3% of their voters still put Labor ahead of the Coalition. In addition to the impact of the heavily publicised preference deal, Briggs points to the fact that UAP voters in the latest Newspoll sample strongly favoured Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten on the question of trust, but this strikes me as thin gruel given the small sample size. Kevin Bonham makes the point that the Sinophobic bent of Palmer’s current campaign might be capturing a more right-wing audience than last time, which may well be so. However, he also makes the very good point that Palmer “may be taking Coalition-friendly voters from the Others pile, so the remaining Others may on balance be slightly Labor-leaning”.
All things considered, I don’t see enough reason to stop treating the UAP as part of the amorphous collection of “others” and to continue allocating its collective preferences as per the 2016 result, which was basically 50-50 – particularly not in the context of an election at which anti-government sentiment is harder than it was last time, based on all available evidence. In any case, I will not for the time being be making the effort to produce a trend measure from the UAP, whose primary vote will remain locked up in BludgerTrack’s aggregated “others” measure.
The upshot of all this is that the dial has moved 0.5% in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, but only 0.2% of this is due to the addition of the new polls this week from YouGov Galaxy, Newspoll and Essential Research. The Coalition has gained three on the seat projection, consisting of one each in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. The addition of new state data has smoothed off what hitherto seemed excessive movement in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, although it’s had the opposite effect in Western Australia. Labor continues to be credited with eight gains in Queensland, which seems rather a lot, but elsewhere the projections seem in line with what the major parties are expecting.
Full results can be accessed through the link below, which is permanently available on the sidebar.
And while you’re about, don’t miss the latest edition of Seat du Jour in the post below this one, covering Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson.
Confessions:
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/greens-candidate-julian-burnside-defends-comments-on-female-genital-mutilation/news-story/9a05c9c080a0ad8502b5e73c92870ea2
He sure did.
The Toorak Toff
says:
Thursday, May 2, 2019 at 10:02 pm
Let’s be frank about franking credits. I’ll take a hit if Labor wins, but I’ll cop it sweet. Basically it’s about fairness.
__________
It doesn’t make much sense though for that money then go to increased subsides for child care for people making upto 175k. That’s just a middle class welfare transfer. Why not set the limit at 100k?
The item referring to the flame wars in the Victorian Division of the Liberal Party, including the reference to Bastiaan and his wife are spot on
Bastiaan was put in Witness Protection leading up to the State election but, with the toxic Sukkar is still ever present with the numbers they have introduced to the Party being the far right, God bothering demographic
Sportsbet has Labor 1.52 and Liberal 2.40 in Pearce. If I was a gambling man there would be easy money to be made on Pearce.
It’s obvious now that Sessions was sacked because he refused to recuse himself from the investigation, and a patsy was appointed to do Trump’s dirty work.
3z @ #681 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 9:44 pm
Absolutely. Can’t beat his Labor opponent fair and square.
One good thing about the RWFW Parties, they’re doing an excellent job exposing the dregs of Australian Society. 🙂
Not that I’m fond of middle-class welfare, but it’s not $174k individuals, but $174k household.
Let’s just be clear and fair about this.
Observer @ #702 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 10:11 pm
However, the thing I can’t understand is that Okotel is a Christian as well!?!
J341983
says:
Thursday, May 2, 2019 at 10:16 pm
Not that I’m fond of middle-class welfare, but it’s not $174k individuals, but $174k household.
Let’s just be clear and fair about this.
_________________________________
Yeah ok. I reckon on 174k any household doesn’t need many subsidies.
Congratulations to family friend, Jordan Richardson for getting a portrait of Annabel Crabb into the Archibald Prize final for this year!
3Z:
Link doesn’t work
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, May 2, 2019 at 10:17 pm
So was the Pope and Martin Luther.
Refreshing to see Annabell without that supercilious smirk on her face.
“Let’s be frank about franking credits. I’ll take a hit if Labor wins, but I’ll cop it sweet. Basically it’s about fairness.”
Me too. I’m not giving anything back, but it’s absurd that I’m getting refunds of tax payed by someone else. I don’t have a boat like that guy on 7:30 but I could afford a small one if I wanted it (and knew how to drive it). I don’t need handouts, nor do all the “self-funded” whinging
wankersretirees.Shorten’s interview with Sales was tough, but not overly so, compared with a Kerry O’Brien interview. The issue will be how she handles Morrison next week.
Several times Shorten compared Labor’s policies to the Liberals and Sales cut him off, wtte “she would ask Morrison that next week”. Given that Morrison’s reflexive go to line, is to criticize Labor, she will have to manage the interview as forcefully with Morrison as she did with Shorten.
Bushfire Bill @ #713 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 10:23 pm
…Girly curls, 50s makeup and glasses.
Confessions:
Bugger. It works for me but it’s paywalled. If you google Julian Burnside FGM it should be the first result.
Barney in Phan Thiet @ #712 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 10:22 pm
True dat. Ima hoping the battle goes on as long as The War of the Roses. 😆
One of the retirees on 7:30, proudly said he lived on income from his super fund and franking credits, so that he didn’t have to draw down on his capital.
Morrison talking for 15 minutes without mentioning Labor or Shorten.
I’d like to see that! 😆
But a household with $200,000- of non taxable income (based on the Cap of $1.6 Million per account holder paying an Allocated Pension at 5% PA so $3.2 Million at 5% = $160,000- PA) plus other income to below the tax threshold for each party receives the Franking Credit – having no tax assessment liability
This is the demographic doing the squealing
John Reidy @ #719 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 10:29 pm
An Entitled leach on hardworking, exploited Australians.
Bushfire Bill @ #713 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 10:23 pm
She really is everything that’s wrong with Australian journalism. She wants to be all buddy buddy with politicians and swap cake recipes while producing vacuous character pieces.
Fuck analysis.
Fuck understanding issues.
Fuck scrutiny.
Fuck the facts.
Just keep a score as though politics is a game of football and the cabinets are the star players.
ICAC now: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/02/morrison-defied-treasurys-advice-to-reject-help-for-liberal-donors-power-company
Just got a “sponsored” ad on my facebook page about “Death Tax”.
Reported it as “misleading spam”.
First time have had the pleasure of doing that. 🙂
In a way I feel sorry for Julian Burnside and am still scratching my head as to why he threw his hat into the ring. He was never going to win Kooyong and politics does not suit him.
He looks so oddly out of place handing out how to vote cards in suit and tie, very stiff and formal.
His reputation will be tarnished from this experience imo.
I reckon Labor would be quite happy talking climate change and franking credits right up to the election. Labor is on the side of the public in both cases.
The few retirees up in arms about franking credits were liberal voters anyway. The more they holler the more people see it for what it really is and see Labor closing a tax loophole. That’ll play well in marginal seats methinks.
“Reported it as “misleading spam”.
That’s actually a good strategy. Maybe we should all do it (I’m not on Facebook but I’ll look for opportunities elsewhere).
Well JR, given he is invested in Bank Shares, he may not be drawing on Capital BUT his Capital has LOST very significant value because his Bank Shares have tanked
This is the demographic which opposed the Banking Royal Commission – due to self interest knowing what the impact on the Share Prices of the Banks would be courtesy of the Royal Commission (limited as it was)
When the “scheme” was marketed to me, NAB Shares were at $36-
They are now at $24-
And their Dividend has been reduced because of performance – meaning the Share Price will tank further
These people live beyond their means – and need to be called out
C@tMomma
We had to destroy the car industry in order to save it…
That’s nothing, I had a sponsored post claiming Labor will bring drag queens to schools to teach boys its ok to become girls.
Reported as fake news.
“Refreshing to see Annabell without that supercilious smirk on her face.”
I cannot watch or listen to her. Pain. In. The. Arse.
Idicative of the dumbing down of the ABC and australian journalism.
Maybe we can agree. Every time we see “Retiree Tax” in an ad, report it as misleading spam, fake news, disinformation. I’m not saying we should do this to all Liberal ads, just those that push lies.
“Refreshing to see Annabell without that supercilious smirk on her face.”
I thought that portrait was awful.
“I’m not saying we should do this to all Liberal ads, just those that push lies.”
I’m up for that. 🙂
“A Shorten Labor government would ‘beef up’ enforcement of section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act.”
RWFW’s Bolt and Devine to explode into frothing fury in 10,9,8………………. 🙂
Creasey’s Labor campaign posters have been taken down around Richmond. Billy must think he is really going well.
‘Lib source has told me revelations about Isaacs and Wills candidates were internal hits by warring Bastiaan and Okotel loyalists respectively. “One is ISIS. The other’s al-Qaeda.” #ausvotes ‘
I thought they’d wait until they’d lost the election before they started this. Ah well, nothing like starting early…
E. G. Theodore says:
Thursday, May 2, 2019 at 10:42 pm
They could call the first model released the Ben Tre.
Right wingers have form when it comes to claiming that their nasty posts on social media were the work of hackers. It’s dog ate the homework stuff. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-05/man-who-abused-nova-peris-on-facebook-gets-suspended-sentence/7568912
“I thought that portrait [of Annabelle Crabb] was awful.”
I like the portrait. I don’t know what that sprig of a plant she’s holding is, but it looks significant. She seems to be wearing some stuff she found in the St Vincent’s clothing bin, like the last time I saw her on Insiders, but her expression is intelligent, thoughtful, serious, a bit of a contrast to her usual on-screen persona.
But I’m no art critic.
I didn’t see the 730 report, but it seems to having the desired effect.
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/uproar-at-yachties-wealth-tax-whinge/news-story/dfde34523b7b7b90655fa93b068e8792
I did like the line where I think Sales said to Shorten about this guy going ‘back’ on the public purse, to which Shorten rightly replied that the guy is already on the public purse.
zoomster
No it is well and truly on, and has been continuing since the Victorian election. Many insiders have left, with many more to follow after May 18th.
State QLD Labor just killed Adani again due to the finch. This is going to go down really well in certain QLD seats. Thanks Trad.
Henry, missed half the debate because SKY crossed to Shorten’s presser (which was probably more informative anyway) but what I did see didn’t enlighten too much — I admit to having a particular dislike the Greg the lyin’ Hunt so I don’t know that I can be objective, but I noticed that like everything else, they have no real platform, more of the same basically. KIng acquitted herself well, but I saw no ‘knock-out’ blow (apart from the extensive plans Labor has) from the discussion.
Today, the UK are holding council elections across most of the country
It’s not just people trecking to the polling booths
#DogsAtPollingStations
#CatsAtPollingStations
The results (due to be released over the next day or so once polling closes at 22:00 UK time) might be interesting to see whether the Brexit debacle is having any effect.
Can’t Labor create 1,564 jobs in Central Queensland doing something as useful but less damaging than a massive coal mine, like painting rocks white.
Just on Superannuation Accruals covering your Allocated Pension at the minimum draw requirements (which increase with age) AND performing better than that therefore increasing the balance over and above the Allocated Pension draw, this is the outcome you seek – hence the Risk Grading including Balanced Funds
The cost of living increases – as do the prospects of significant expenses due to (for example) problems with health (noting you are FULLY self funded so NO Government assistance available)
So, yes you look to increase Capital for contingency purposes
Noting the $1.6 Million Cap per account holder
There is also the contingency margin to cover any Market disruptions (such as 1974, 1987, 2008 etc etc).
And you mitigate against that risk by diversity – but only mitigate
Plus, in retirement you look to live the life you are accustomed to because that is the outcome you have worked toward (including paying your taxes, contributing to your Superannuation, raising your family, paying off your home loan etc etc etc)
Simply, in life you live within your means
Once you are living outside your means you have a problem – including Capital draw downs
Contrary to that, annually your Allocated Pension is calculated at 5% of your Balance – so if the Balance is increasing your income is increasing – to cover cost of living increases such as utility costs, Medical Benefit increases, Council Rate increases, Home Insurance increases and every other cost that continues to increase
So we look for a sustainable increase in income also – from our own resources
So we seek for our Capital to return at a level in excess of our Allocated Pension draws
Because that is sustainable – sustainable being the game in town
michael @ #741 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 11:06 pm
Good on Queensland Labor!
Meh. People who think there should be a new coal mine don’t warrant special consideration just because they’re concentrated in a few seats. They should take control of their own destiny (start a local renewables industry, ffs!) instead of waiting for handouts from an overseas mining company.