BludgerTrack records a movement to the Coalition this week, but in keeping with the zeitgeist, this is more about changes in preference assumptions rather than voting intention. Specifically, I’ve decided to apply a crude 60-40 split in favour of the Coalition on One Nation preferences, as Newspoll has been doing since the start of last year.
A while back I came up with an elaborate mechanism to allocate One Nation preferences based on respondent-allocated two-party polling data, the true purpose of which was to produce a figure more favourable to the Coalition than the 50-50 split recorded in the 15 seats the party contested in 2016, which only partisan optimists (hello to you all) expect to be repeated this time. However, this has been increasingly ineffective due to the paucity of respondent-allocated results since ReachTEL’s national polling stopped around a year ago. It seemed to me that something needed to be done though, and I have been persuaded by the position of David Briggs at YouGov Galaxy that 60-40 is a conservative approximation (albeit an arbitrary one) given the preference flows at the last two state elections at which One Nation made a serious effort in lower house seats, namely Queensland (65.2% of preferences to the Liberal National Party) and Western Australia (60.6% to the Liberals).
I am not, however, convinced that the same thing should be done with the United Australia Party, as Newspoll has now started doing. The Palmer United Party had Labor last on every how-to-vote card in 2013, yet 46.3% of their voters still put Labor ahead of the Coalition. In addition to the impact of the heavily publicised preference deal, Briggs points to the fact that UAP voters in the latest Newspoll sample strongly favoured Scott Morrison over Bill Shorten on the question of trust, but this strikes me as thin gruel given the small sample size. Kevin Bonham makes the point that the Sinophobic bent of Palmer’s current campaign might be capturing a more right-wing audience than last time, which may well be so. However, he also makes the very good point that Palmer “may be taking Coalition-friendly voters from the Others pile, so the remaining Others may on balance be slightly Labor-leaning”.
All things considered, I don’t see enough reason to stop treating the UAP as part of the amorphous collection of “others” and to continue allocating its collective preferences as per the 2016 result, which was basically 50-50 – particularly not in the context of an election at which anti-government sentiment is harder than it was last time, based on all available evidence. In any case, I will not for the time being be making the effort to produce a trend measure from the UAP, whose primary vote will remain locked up in BludgerTrack’s aggregated “others” measure.
The upshot of all this is that the dial has moved 0.5% in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, but only 0.2% of this is due to the addition of the new polls this week from YouGov Galaxy, Newspoll and Essential Research. The Coalition has gained three on the seat projection, consisting of one each in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. The addition of new state data has smoothed off what hitherto seemed excessive movement in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, although it’s had the opposite effect in Western Australia. Labor continues to be credited with eight gains in Queensland, which seems rather a lot, but elsewhere the projections seem in line with what the major parties are expecting.
Full results can be accessed through the link below, which is permanently available on the sidebar.
And while you’re about, don’t miss the latest edition of Seat du Jour in the post below this one, covering Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson.
rhwombat:
JG would make a fantastic GG!
They had to change to a larger venue to accommodate numbers for tonight with Julia. I was on the wait list and luckily got some tickets. Learnt lots about her current career in education, especially in underprivileged parts of the world. What a privilege to hear her speak in person.
Worth reading this Coorey piece on FPMJG and FPMKR…
‘Rudd, along with his predecessor Julia Gillard, have both agreed to help Bill Shorten.
The spectre of two old foes coming together for a common cause, in contrast to the unease being papered over in the Liberal Party, is a positive meta-message for Labor which is emphasising its unity over the past six years as a core attribute.
Gillard, who is about to activate, will use social media messaging and the odd seat visit with the aim of shoring up the female vote
Rudd has been in the field for over a week and his emphasis has been the Chinese vote.’
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/ground-game-heats-up-as-electorate-splinters-20190501-p51j6v
Steve777 @ #649 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 9:08 pm
Gillard is all class!
Confessions @ #650 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 7:10 pm
I’d prefer her as President.
DPRee:
Do you know who hosted the event with her?
https://twitter.com/rachelbaxendale/status/1123896205984059394
Rachel Baxendale @rachelbaxendale
Lib source has told me revelations about Isaacs and Wills candidates were internal hits by warring Bastiaan and Okotel loyalists respectively. “One is ISIS. The other’s al-Qaeda.” #ausvotes
8:25 PM – 2 May 2019
Dan G:
Touche.
Here at Blueys Beach in downtown Lyne, no corflutes, no letterbox drops, no glad handing, no nothing.
I guess we’re what’s regarded as a safe seat.
Victoria will net far more than 3 seats for the ALP. The likes of Aston & Flinders are in play. Corrangamite, Chisholm, La Trobe & Deakin should be painted red by 7:30pm.
I’d prefer her as President.
____
Then she wouldn’t have to hold her nose with all the religious stuff that goes with the territory of a GG.
Bushfire Bill @ #7882 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 9:15 pm
If you happen to bump into Bluey, could you ask him for his take on things. If he’s not back by Saturday, I might have to wake Doug the Dubious Dugong.
Dan Gulberry @ #7878 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 9:14 pm
So would I, but it’s not as alliterative.
People tend to be sheep when it comes to the economy. How else to explain the Coalition’s ongoing ‘better economic manager’ tag when they frequently preside over increasing debt, even recessions.
BK @ #660 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 7:18 pm
Indeed.
Confessions @ #644 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 9:04 pm
‘Greg the Lying Hunt, you’re a runt!’ 😯
rhwombat @ #662 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 7:21 pm
😆
“I might have to wake Doug the Dubious Dugong.”
No don’t do that. Doug sounds like he might be working undercover for the “Liberals” (or maybe Newscrap, but I repeat myself).
BK @ #7884 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 9:18 pm
Is there much religious stuff left, even given Betty Windsor’s titular position? I would have thought that Isaac Isaacs effectively annulled that.
There’s no religious crap with the GG position, just colonial / empire / monarchist crap.
Bernard Keane right on the money. Australian journos should hang their heads in shame.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/05/02/media-climate-change-fail/
‘… A gross imbalance exists in reportage of the two sides, given Labor is the only major party with a genuine climate policy. Scott Morrison is rarely questioned on the lack of any serious Coalition climate policy — journalists seem to take it as a given that the Coalition just doesn’t do climate, so it gets a pass from scrutiny. That appears to be why the Coalition’s figleaf “direct action” policy, intended only to prevent the charge of wholesale denialism and pump more money to Coalition supporters, attracts no critique. The media know it’s a fake policy, so have never examined it closely in the 10 years since it was put together on the back of an envelope in the wake of Turnbull’s first removal.
‘… To the extent that the issue has featured in campaign coverage, it has been entirely around the issue of the economic cost of climate action policies. This is exactly the Coalition’s preferred framing of the issue, and one that it has used since the Howard years to obstruct action.’
Steve777
Bumbling oaf it remains as it promises more toilets at Manly Beach after how many years in Parliament.
Bumbling could become the next envoy for the new indigenous electric car industry.
Bumbling wanker that it is.
Julia Gillard was with Ged Kearney tonight. Julia also spoke of her coping mechanism whilst PM. When she read horrid stuff about herself, she processed that by thinking that was almost another Julia they were talking about, a third person. Also that Joan Kirner had discovered an iPad later in her life, and would send Julia messages of encouragement, mostly full of crude words and get the bastards! Lots of genuine conversation about female representation and moving further to equality.
Steve777 @ #7891 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 9:25 pm
Nah. The GRASPRers poison seagrass. Doug has strong feelings about seagrass beds. Nasty Party runoff to the GBR makes Doug a very angry dugong.
In that second photo it looks like King has dislocated Hunt’s shoulder. 🙂
On Tony Abbott’s promise to create a new car industry, well, he does believe in things rising from the dead.
“The torpedo bomb is a thing of beauty. Uncatchable.”
Serious? Maybe rugby league players
DPRee @ #7896 Thursday, May 2nd, 2019 – 9:28 pm
1. Gough, 2 JG, 3 Don Dunstan…then daylight for some space…
Roger says:
Thursday, May 2, 2019 at 9:31 pm
Much easier with a rugby ball than an Aussie Rules one.
DPRee
I’m so sad I missed Julia and Ged tonight.
It’s so bizarre in Cooper this time. Compared to the byelection you’d barely know an election was happening. It’s clear the Greens are putting all their eggs in a Macnamara – which unless the electorate follows the pattern in Albert Park at the state election – could be a very strong chance of a Green gain.
Shorten made Gillard. Then he broke her:
Labor factional warlord Bill Shorten has admitted he urged Julia Gillard to challenge Kevin Rudd for the prime ministership last week.
Kevin Rudd has said there was “no way in the world” he would have moved against Julia Gillard in June 2013 unless Bill Shorten and his group were with him.
I am utterly appalled with Adam Bandt’s mealy mouthed calls for his Labor opponent to stand down over a few Facebook posts.
Imagine for a second a Labor candidate was revealed to be a member of men-only elite social club, had defended Bill Leak on Twitter and had even gone so far as to suggest allowing female genital mutilation wouldn’t be so bad.
Adam Bandt and the Greens would be apoplectic. And rightly so.
Yet Julian Burnside remains the Greens star candidate, standing shoulder to shoulder with Bandt and di Natale.
Such hypocrisy.
Was there a debate between Catherine king and the jockey at the press club today?
For anyone that saw it how was it?
Now it’s the Coalition’s turn to tank in the betting markets. Out to $4.4 on Betfair. 🙂
Burnside has defended FGM?
Henry:
I was at work so didn’t see it. But can you honestly imagine the coalition with the husked out shell Greg Hunt in its corner fighting on health policy landing blows on Labor over health policy?
David Bartlett is a former Premier of Tasmania, tweeted this..
‘On very good authority – from a former Facebook friend of Jessica Whelan – the screenshots are NOT doctored and that she was a prolific racist poster on FB, that is why he de-friended her! Referral to Fed Police is just a delaying tactic by @ScottMorrisonMP #politas
RHW, seconded.
Firefox:
I don’t think it’s a dead cert, but the $1.90 on offer from Ladbrokes for the ALP does look like good value.
Rugby League fullbacks and wingers face a threat that would have an ozzie rules player pissing down his leg.
Henry – I taped it and am just about to watch it – will report back
Good to see Past Labor leaders rallying to Bill and helping directly in the campaign.
Nothing like Party unity on display for all to see.
What a contrast to the battling Liberals who are now snitching on each other for all to see in Victoria.
Liberal volunteers in Dunkley have been spotted changing the Blue shirts for Yellow shirts and handing out HTVs for Palmer, then changing back later. Apparently Crewther’s campaign manager was overseeing it…
https://twitter.com/vanOnselenP/status/1123902634199539717
Nath living in the past
Oh and more on KB on twitter:
news.com.au/national/feder… More on alleged Jessica Whelan posts including claimed screenshot of the worst one. Warning: offensive content and even an incorrect apostrophe. #politas
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/05/02/bludgertrack-51-9-48-1-labor-2/comment-page-14/#comment-3153179
Seriously?
No carbon tax en-route for an ETS for a fed gov I lead, only to in minority fed gov do exactly that … KRudd7x7, Juliar, etc to 2013?
Not that I enjoyed 2013 onwards any better.
The only way for Versailles on Lake Blwxyz Griffin to be refocused towards advancing Australia fair is more minor parties and independents, and direct democracy.
Bob Katter must be feeling left out? His candidate for Dawson wants to remind everyone that the RWNJ mantle is not the sole possession on PHoN, LNP and Palmer..
Nathematics
Thanks fess and Jen. Appreciate the feedback.
Only saw the photo that was released by the press club and thought why is greggy kneeling.
@_JustinStevens_
An update on this that as of today, the Environment Minister Melissa Price has declined at least 11 invitations to do an interview on @abc730 since she took over that portfolio.
Let’s be frank about franking credits. I’ll take a hit if Labor wins, but I’ll cop it sweet. Basically it’s about fairness.
Nevertheless, some people will be aggrieved, and with good reason. You never like things to be taken away from you, especially if you have set up your retirement requirements according to the law of the land.
Worst of all, the policy gives this deplorable, desperate government a platform from which it is issuing a barrage of lies. A lot of them stick. But for them, Labor would certainly win Boothby and quite likely Sturt. Because of them, Shorten may yet do a Hewson and lose the unloseable election.