Election minus three weeks

A Senate poll, and reporting on the Coalition’s struggles to identify a pathway to victory.

Now that the public holiday period is past, hopefully the floodgates will open on opinion polling very shortly. Certainly we can expect a Newspoll, presumably tomorrow evening, and surely an Essential Research to boot.

What we have for now is the rarity of a Senate poll, courtesy of the Australia Institute. This is part of a quarterly online survey conducted through Dynata, on this occasion targeted 1945 respondents. Nationally, the poll has the Coalition on 30% (35.2% in 2016), Labor on 34% (29.8%), the Greens on 10% (8.7%), One Nation on 7% (4.3%). The United Australia Party is only credited with 3%, though that may be because it hasn’t captured a recent surge in support. Based on these numbers, the Australia Institute’s overall assessment is that the Coalition will win 14 to 17 seats (plus 16 ongoing), Labor will win 15 (13 ongoing), the Greens five to six (three ongoing), One Nation one to four (one ongoing), the Centre Alliance zero or one (two ongoing). Derryn Hinch isn’t predicted to win, with only 3% support in Victoria (I wouldn’t be too sure about that myself, given the small sample here), and Jacqui Lambie is only a maybe (ditto). Cory Bernardi, we’re stuck with.

Latest horse race calling in the news media:

• Despite its cheerful headline (“Written-off Liberal back in the fight”), a report on Liberal internal polling in Victoria by John Ferguson of The Weekend Australian is almost all bad news for the Liberals, with a party source quoted saying “not much has changed since the start of the campaign”. The best news the report has to offer the Liberals is that Sarah Henderson only trails in Corangamite by “about three percentage points” (the recent ReachTEL poll showing the Liberals with a 54-46 lead was “highly unlikely to be right”), and that the Liberals believe themselves to be in front in Deakin. Elsewhere, the report restates the now established wisdom that Labor will win Dunkley, which neither leader has bothered to visit; says the Liberals will “struggle to hold” Chisholm, which is at the more favourable end of recent assessments for them; and implies they are behind in La Trobe, and perhaps also Casey. Furthermore, there is “increasing concern” about Greg Hunt in Flinders, and double-digit inner city swings that place Higgins “in doubt”. Josh Frydenberg is reckoned likely to surivive in Kooyong, but clearly not very convincingly.

• Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reports the Coalition’s strategic reading of the situation as follows. Chisholm (Liberal 2.9%, Victoria), Dunkley (notional Labor 1.0%, Victoria), Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland) and Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW) are conceded as likely losses. Seats that are “must wins”, in the sense of being gained from Labor or independents, are Labor-held Herbert (Queensland, 0.0%), Lindsay (New South Wales, 1.1%), Bass (Tasmania, 5.4%) and Solomon (Northern Territory, 6.1%). This gets them to 76, if they can hold all the seats on a “must retain” list consisting of Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%, Victoria), La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria), Petrie (LNP 1.7%, Queensland), Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland), Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW), Robertson (Liberal 1.1%, NSW), Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland), Banks (Liberal 1.4%, NSW) and Capricornia (LNP 0.6%, Queensland).

• Eryk Bagshaw of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Nationals have “all but given up hope” of holding off Rob Oakeshott in Cowper. In neighbouring Page, internal polling is said to show Nationals incumbent Kevin Hogan with a lead of 52-48 “in a worst case scenario”. Remarkably though, Hogan “has left the door open to sitting on the crossbench if Bill Shorten wins”.

• Going back nearly a week, Annika Smethurst in the Sunday Telegraph reported that “Labor and Coalition strategists admit the opening days of the federal election have hardly shifted a vote”. Both sides also agree that, thanks to his attack on Labor opponent Ali France in the first week of the campaign, Peter Dutton is “in serious strife” in Dickson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

685 comments on “Election minus three weeks”

Comments Page 5 of 14
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  1. This Senate poll* confirms most here’s suspicion that the vote is already locked in at about 53/47 and all of the #HappyClapperSloganBogan’s theatrics are being ignored, thank doG 😀
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    * strangely this shows a 5% swing against the LNP and 5% swing to ALP ???anyone?

  4. FYI, Animal Justice wants the protection of feral animals – check their policy on this
    Their protection ultimately results in contributing to the extinction of native animals

  6. Barney in Da Lat @ #200 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 12:26 pm

    The Toorak Toff says:
    Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 11:57 am

    Rex it seems is advocating a de facto vote for right-wing nuttery. A strange way to remain true to his principles.

    Rex certainly isn’t known for his deep analysis and possibly consequences of his views. 🙂

    If people like you voted similarly to me there’d be no coal proppers, no tax avoiders, no religious nutters, no discriminators , etc in the senate.

  7. Vic says:
    Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 12:31 pm

    FYI, Animal Justice wants the protection of feral animals – check their policy on this
    …

    So they support the RWFW!

  8. @Rex is a cancer to our politics because he can’t bring himself to vote Labor which is the only other party that will ever get needed seats to be Government.

    And if Rex wants to change the style of of Government you have to be in Government first – to change the way Government works..

    I absolutely hate people like Rex because they want to keep the chaotic senate but also keep the chaotic Government.

    A big fucking waste of money, time, resources and our life.

    Hypercrits.

  9. GG I was talking about so-called serious journalists — the crew on SKY after dark will go down with the ship, shrieking that the world is unfair

  10. I was just polled on my mobile, by a friendly male Aussie-Asian voice, asking for my opinions on the election in Kooyong. Unfortunately reflexive honesty got the better of me and I told him I don’t live in Kooyong. He thanked me and that was that. 🙁 (I did live in Kooyong two elections ago.) This is the first time I’ve been polled for Kooyong or for anywhere come to that.

  14. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 12:32 pm

    …

    If people like you voted similarly to me there’d be no coal proppers, no tax avoiders, no religious nutters, no discriminators , etc in the senate.

    There’s another one of your problems, you think you represent a majority view, whilst I’m under no such illusions. 🙂

  16. Speaking of journalists, Shorten won over Tingle with his bus tour a few weeks back. Murphy in her piece this morning has now had her “quality time with Shorten” and I think it shows in a softened tone, respectful even. It got me thinking that one by one Shorten is changing minds. Then I thought, but who selects the lucky journalist?

  17. Rex – if you don’t give any preferences to say Hinch, LNP, Palmer and ON you could well be responsible for helping elect ON ahead of Hinch. Is that what you want?

  18. Barney in Da Lat @ #214 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 12:40 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 12:32 pm

    …

    If people like you voted similarly to me there’d be no coal proppers, no tax avoiders, no religious nutters, no discriminators , etc in the senate.

    There’s another one of your problems, you think you represent a majority view, whilst I’m under no such illusions. 🙂

    I just can’t see your logic in voting for MP’s who are proponents of policy that harm civilisation.

  19. I saw Sobers play in a charity match, probably early ’80s at Adelaide Oval.

    He lacked a little bit of condition and after a few balls realised running ones and twos wasn’t for him.

    What followed was a masterclass in boundary hitting.

    Very special! 🙂

  22. imacca

    I saw that. The MSM was ‘strangely’ silent on Chloe’s quick rescue. Mustn’t spoil the Bill is Bad theme, I s’pose.

  23. Hit the nail on the head Barney. Most people seem to think they sit at the “centre”. And of course, they don’t.

    If politics about climate change was equated with addiction, Labor would be seeking to wean the person off their addiction, and educate them into better behaviours (retraining workers etc.) causing the least disruption.

    The Libs would be saying “nah, self-determination means they can be addicted, so long as it makes the rich richer”

    And the Greens would say “make em go cold turkey — bugger the side-effects”

  25. Rex Douglas s…

    I just can’t see your logic in voting for MP’s who are proponents of policy that harm civilisation.

    Back to the initial point.

    Change has to start somewhere and the only Party able to form Government advocating change is Labor.

    It might not be what you want, but it kills the alternative.

  26. Morrison has just gifted Labor a gold bar…………………………Deciding to get into bed with Palmer is a real tactical blunder. Just so, so much can now been made of ” Ad Man and Con Man” as it mirror image for both these individuals. I would flog this connection to death if I had money to spare for Labor’s ads.

  29. Although it won’t change my vote, one thing I’m getting mighty tired of is the numerous and constant emails from the ALP requesting a donation. I’m receiving them at the rate of about one a day from different members of the Labor team.

    I’ve already donated small amounts on several occasions but, as a pensioner, I have reached my capacity. Obviously, I can simply ignore and delete said emails but I would appreciate any comment from one or other of the Labor members on this forum if I should do just that or, instead, write a note to ALP headquarters suggesting they co-ordinate their campaign. I’m reluctant to unsubscribe as there are other emails of interest sent from time to time.

  30. Thinking about Morrison, as you do at this time of year, it occurred to me that he is well suited to selling washing machines on Shout TV. He’s not selling white goods though, he’s selling himself, and only himself. (Come to think of it maybe he is selling white goods.) Every photo-op, every LP candidate support is a chance to sell his goods. What comes across though is, “My Morrison Brand has the Best Deals For You.” And with “Whatever It Takes” he has an easy to remember 3 word slogan to match. It’s right up there with “Nope. Nope. Nope.”

    Sure, you need to make it simple to “cut through”, but not that simple. I’m starting to think the election will be a surprise result, and not one Morrison will enjoy.

  31. TT
    I’m in Boothby and haven’t got a postal vote from Labor (I have from the Libs). Other than that, I’d say both are putting in the same effort. Flints role as a plotter is getting hammered here and I think she will lose. The “retiree tax” stuff isn’t helping Labor though.

  32. sprocket_

    Has a Liberal PM ever spent this much time campaigning in rural/ regional electorates.
    More signs the the Liberal / Country Part is history out there.. landslide to independents ?

  33. Shorten gave Albo his head in Tassie and stood smiling beside him as he said:

    @sclark_melbs
    2h2 hours ago

    On Palmer, Albanese says “hold my beer” and delivers this:

    “Look, Scott Morrison had a choice between standing up for ripped off workers or sucking up to a tosser who ripped them off and he chose the tosser. He chose Clive Palmer. #auspol

  35. None of those get anything from me.

    A vote that exhausts is the equivalent of distributing what’s left of the value of your vote across all remaining candidates. Not numbering means you’re saying they’re all the same as far as you’re concerned, and hence not numbering Hinch and an Anning candidate means you consider them to be equally good/bad, and don’t care if an Anning candidate gets up over Hinch (for example).

    Whatever your ludicrous same/same views are of the ALP, I don’t see how anyone with a half-functioning moral compass could equate Hinch with an Anning or a Riseup or a PHON.

  36. “I’m constantly waiting for ScoMo to say “But wait, there’s more…””

    Steak knives! But most likely in the hands of his “fellow” Libs. 🙂

  37. I think Labor is right to avoid ‘attack ads’.
    Vitriol is welcomed by people who’ve made up their minds, or who don’t have minds to make up. But people who are genuinely undecided and conscientious are repelled by it.
    I am a person who long ago made up my mind (I voted for Arthur Calwell’s ‘team’ and as a boy patted Doc Evatt’s back when he was in Yarra campaigning for Jim Cairns against Stan Keon). However, I realise that people can disagree with me, and still not be evil (Although many are).
    These can be persuaded, but never by ad hominum attacks on one’s opponents.

  38. Thanks for the link sprocket_. The fake every-man shtick is just too transparent. Does Morrison think that’s all that Hawke had going for him? Is playing pretend dress-ups all that he’s got?

  39. Jackol @ #235 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 1:10 pm

    None of those get anything from me.

    A vote that exhausts is the equivalent of distributing what’s left of the value of your vote across all remaining candidates. Not numbering means you’re saying they’re all the same as far as you’re concerned, and hence not numbering Hinch and an Anning candidate means you consider them to be equally good/bad, and don’t care if an Anning candidate gets up over Hinch (for example).

    Whatever your ludicrous same/same views are of the ALP, I don’t see how anyone with a half-functioning moral compass could equate Hinch with an Anning or a Riseup or a PHON.

    Those candidates you name will only succeed if voters enable them with their preferences.

  41. Margo Kingston

    @margokingston1
    Follow Follow @margokingston1
    More
    Margo Kingston Retweeted 7NEWS Brisbane
    What on earth is Morrison doing in Dubbo, in the safe rural Nats seat of #ParkesVotes.

    Anyone know what’s happening on th ground? ?

  43. Craig Hill
    ‏@CraigHillNet
    6h6 hours ago

    Going through the AEC candidates list, Fraser Anning seems to have a candidate in every electorate. That takes some serious money, and we need to know who is bankrolling this dipstick. #auspol

  44. Save the ABC demonstration outside of Mitch Fifields’s office in Mentone this morning. Good gathering incl. Mark Dreyfus. Tomorrow morning rally in Box Hill with Bill Shorten.

  46. Shorten is, in essence, a coward and a fraud. Not across the issues and promoting two contradictory views on his Adani stance, in city and country. He is also not across detail and unwilling to prosecute it in public forums. A true PM must prove the capacity to do this.

    I wonder how many were now wishing that Plibersek or Albanese were now contesting this election. Bill is the biggest liability the ALP has.

  47. Here is a display in Melbourne which may interest Bludgers.

    https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2019/apr/27/from-woodstock-to-vietnam-protests-revolution-comes-to-melbourne-museum

    As the V&A’s blockbuster show of 2016, Revolutions: Records and Rebels (in the UK known as You Say You Want a Revolution) attracted nearly a quarter of a million visitors. Its latest incarnation in Australia contains more than 500 items from the V&A and Museums Victoria’s own collection, and has broadened in scope from 1966 – 1970 to 1966 – 1972.

  48. In the absence of this utopian voting universe, voting just purely for those you love is allowing a pathway for those you hate … because you can’t stomach moderation, because you’re above modern electoral politics.

  49. Lincoln @ #245 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 1:27 pm

    Shorten is, in essence, a coward and a fraud. Not across the issues and promoting two contradictory views on his Adani stance, in city and country. He is also not across detail and unwilling to prosecute it in public forums. A true PM must prove the capacity to do this.

    I wonder how many were now wishing that Plibersek or Albanese were now contesting this election. Bill is the biggest liability the ALP has.

    Bill needs to become even more unpopular with whingers like you to ensure he becomes PM. You don’t comprehend that it’s because you hate him that mainstream Aussies are flocking to his cause.

  50. We haven’t seen the end of Watergate yet.

    Bill Johnson, a former director of environmental water planning at the Murray–Darling Basin Authority, told Guardian Australia that this transaction likely amounted to a purchase of “ghost water”. It is “highly questionable whether the Commonwealth got any water for this money”, he said. The Australia Institute has devoted a research report to the anomalies of the buyback, which, like the EAA deal, wasn’t subject to an open tender.

    As with the EAA deal, Tandou’s owners, Webster Ltd, booked a massive profit. According to a 2017 federal government lobbyist register, both were represented by the same consultancy, The Fifth Estate. As with the EAA deal, the government’s payment was disproportionately high; it would have made more financial sense for the government to buy the whole property rather than just the water rights. As with EAA, the business had been struggling in recent years, mainly due to a lack of reliable water. And as with EAA, Tandou was owned by a much larger agribusiness, Webster, many of whose beneficial owners are also based in tax havens.

    (Here’s another curious revelation: one of The Fifth Estate’s few other agricultural clients listed on the same register was one Agricultural Managers Limited, which is based in the Cayman Islands and was set up the same day as Eastern Australia Irrigation, EAA’s parent company. Due to Cayman Islands law, it’s impossible to know what its activities are, or who are its directors or beneficiaries.)

    The Coalition should explain why some large companies have been receiving multimillion-dollar payouts while hundreds of kilometres of the Darling are effectively dying. And why buybacks are spent on licences that may not yield any actual water while places downstream such as Menindee need water so urgently. And why tax-avoiding corporations domiciled in the Caymans siphon massive profits while people in Wilcannia are forced to buy drinking water in cardboard boxes shipped from Broken Hill.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/nick-feik/2019/24/2019/1556084917/new-developments-watergate-scandal

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