Now that the public holiday period is past, hopefully the floodgates will open on opinion polling very shortly. Certainly we can expect a Newspoll, presumably tomorrow evening, and surely an Essential Research to boot.
What we have for now is the rarity of a Senate poll, courtesy of the Australia Institute. This is part of a quarterly online survey conducted through Dynata, on this occasion targeted 1945 respondents. Nationally, the poll has the Coalition on 30% (35.2% in 2016), Labor on 34% (29.8%), the Greens on 10% (8.7%), One Nation on 7% (4.3%). The United Australia Party is only credited with 3%, though that may be because it hasn’t captured a recent surge in support. Based on these numbers, the Australia Institute’s overall assessment is that the Coalition will win 14 to 17 seats (plus 16 ongoing), Labor will win 15 (13 ongoing), the Greens five to six (three ongoing), One Nation one to four (one ongoing), the Centre Alliance zero or one (two ongoing). Derryn Hinch isn’t predicted to win, with only 3% support in Victoria (I wouldn’t be too sure about that myself, given the small sample here), and Jacqui Lambie is only a maybe (ditto). Cory Bernardi, we’re stuck with.
Latest horse race calling in the news media:
• Despite its cheerful headline (“Written-off Liberal back in the fight”), a report on Liberal internal polling in Victoria by John Ferguson of The Weekend Australian is almost all bad news for the Liberals, with a party source quoted saying “not much has changed since the start of the campaign”. The best news the report has to offer the Liberals is that Sarah Henderson only trails in Corangamite by “about three percentage points” (the recent ReachTEL poll showing the Liberals with a 54-46 lead was “highly unlikely to be right”), and that the Liberals believe themselves to be in front in Deakin. Elsewhere, the report restates the now established wisdom that Labor will win Dunkley, which neither leader has bothered to visit; says the Liberals will “struggle to hold” Chisholm, which is at the more favourable end of recent assessments for them; and implies they are behind in La Trobe, and perhaps also Casey. Furthermore, there is “increasing concern” about Greg Hunt in Flinders, and double-digit inner city swings that place Higgins “in doubt”. Josh Frydenberg is reckoned likely to surivive in Kooyong, but clearly not very convincingly.
• Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reports the Coalition’s strategic reading of the situation as follows. Chisholm (Liberal 2.9%, Victoria), Dunkley (notional Labor 1.0%, Victoria), Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland) and Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW) are conceded as likely losses. Seats that are “must wins”, in the sense of being gained from Labor or independents, are Labor-held Herbert (Queensland, 0.0%), Lindsay (New South Wales, 1.1%), Bass (Tasmania, 5.4%) and Solomon (Northern Territory, 6.1%). This gets them to 76, if they can hold all the seats on a “must retain” list consisting of Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%, Victoria), La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria), Petrie (LNP 1.7%, Queensland), Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland), Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW), Robertson (Liberal 1.1%, NSW), Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland), Banks (Liberal 1.4%, NSW) and Capricornia (LNP 0.6%, Queensland).
• Eryk Bagshaw of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Nationals have “all but given up hope” of holding off Rob Oakeshott in Cowper. In neighbouring Page, internal polling is said to show Nationals incumbent Kevin Hogan with a lead of 52-48 “in a worst case scenario”. Remarkably though, Hogan “has left the door open to sitting on the crossbench if Bill Shorten wins”.
• Going back nearly a week, Annika Smethurst in the Sunday Telegraph reported that “Labor and Coalition strategists admit the opening days of the federal election have hardly shifted a vote”. Both sides also agree that, thanks to his attack on Labor opponent Ali France in the first week of the campaign, Peter Dutton is “in serious strife” in Dickson.
Getting closer to some real polling I hope.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Peter Hartcher writes that around the world, market economies are under stress. The Opposition Leader’s plans to lift fairness – and wages – might be the tonic our economy needs.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/could-bill-shorten-be-the-saviour-of-capitalism-20190426-p51hny.html
Shane Wright on Morrison’s deflections from questions on the deteriorating state of the economy.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/scott-morrison-defends-his-record-as-signs-warn-of-slowing-economy-20190426-p51hka.html
A very good examination here from Paul Bongiorno of the Coalition’s campaign.
https://www.outline.com/34ebzr
Karen Middleton reveals how former AFP chief Mick Keelty, in his capacity as the Northern Basin commissioner for the Murray–Darling Basin, is examining links between political donations and water licences, and calling for proceeds-of-crime laws to be expanded.
https://www.outline.com/3vvtUS
Katharine Murphy has a detailed look at Day 16 of the campaign.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/26/campaign-catchup-2019-morrison-falls-into-a-coal-black-hole
Martin McKenzie-Murray writes that while high-profile candidate Julian Burnside has animated the Greens in Kooyong, party strategists fear there is a lot to lose.
https://www.outline.com/3gnkeD
Bill Shorten says he is “not convinced” on the union movement’s demand that he extend industry-wide bargaining rights beyond low-paid industries, as the ACTU unveils a massive ad blitz calling for a dramatic rewriting of workplace laws.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/shorten-not-convinced-on-union-demand-to-extend-industry-bargaining-20190426-p51hj5.html
Labor has angrily rejected suggestions it dragged its feet on national security after Scott Morrison used the example of just one unlegislated bill to criticise the opposition in the aftermath of the Sri Lanka attacks.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/26/shorten-angrily-rejects-pms-accusation-labor-dragged-feet-on-national-security-bills
Mike Seccombe tells us that data shows the Coalition’s 2016 election victory hinged on just three ethnically diverse seats – Banks, Reid and Chisholm. This time around Labor is shaping its campaign around winning back these communities.
https://www.outline.com/7DMtkL
Ross Gittins reveals that the sad reality is that every year huge amounts of taxpayers’ money is wasted on infrastructure – and much of the damage is begun in election campaigns.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/here-s-an-election-promise-we-ll-waste-a-shedload-of-money-on-infrastructure-20190426-p51hhh.html
Laura Tingle writes that if the government wasn’t so determined to paint itself as a small government party that is mostly interested in giving taxpayers a tax cut, it might have addressed the funding crisis in aged care.
https://www.outline.com/kuy5ST
Stephen Koukoulas explains how the RBA has an inflation problem.
https://thekouk.com/item/675-another-hit-and-miss-the-rba-has-an-inflation-problem.html
The AFR posits that the Coalition could win the election by limiting losses in Victoria and Queensland and picking up seats in NSW, Tasmania and the Northern Territory.
https://www.outline.com/2XdA8J
It wasn’t just the umpires that gave patrons the shits at the Anzac Day AFL match!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/one-by-one-people-went-down-footy-fans-collapse-at-official-anzac-day-lunch-20190426-p51heo.html
Shane Wright explains why death taxes could actually be a good idea.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/enriching-equalising-efficient-why-heinously-unpopular-death-taxes-could-actually-be-a-good-idea-20190422-p51g6z.html
Why voters under 30 will be crucial to the election result.
https://www.outline.com/ss4m9L
Sam Maiden describes saviour Clive Palmer as a false prophet for the Libs.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/04/24/clive-palmer-pauline-hanson/
Michelle Grattan writes about Palmer’s “flypaper sticky” deal with Morrison.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-palmer-flypaper-sticky-for-both-sides-116096
Adele Ferguson tells us how Wacka Williams has said it’s time for regulators to lose the feather and use the sledgehammer. Fair Work Australia in particular.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/lose-the-feather-and-use-sledgehammer-senator-puts-regulator-on-notice-20190426-p51hlm.html
And the SMH says it’s time for law makers to stand up for victims of franchise scandals. It says the industry’s governing code is a joke. Its provisions are farcical and when breached the penalties are pathetic.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/time-for-law-makers-to-stand-up-for-victims-of-franchise-scandals-20190425-p51h5j.html
Paula Matthewson cuts through the election lies to find the truth.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/04/26/election-2019-paula-matthewson/
The benefit of hindsight is a wonderful thing and in the wake of the Murray-Darling ‘disaster’, water allocations from the Fitzroy River in north-western Australia region are being approached with extreme caution.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6091619/murray-darling-mistakes-drive-water-future-across-australia/?cs=14329
The inquiry into the federal government’s spendathon on government contracts, especially on that global elite of corporate welfare recipients, the Big Four audit firms, has been axed — because of the federal election, we are told. The paradox is that the blow-out in government costs comes despite claims by the Government that the outsourcing binge is all about “small government”.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/big-four-inquiry-into-government-consultancy-binge-gets-buried/
Coalition MP Kevin Hogan has left the door open to sitting on the crossbench if Bill Shorten wins the May election, turning him into a key figure in the event of a hung Parliament.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6092505/nationals-mp-offers-no-promise-of-party-loyalty-post-election/?cs=14225
A federal Liberal candidate for the seat of Scullin has apologised for linking same-sex marriage with paedophilia during the marriage equality debate, after being questioned by The Age.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-candidate-linked-same-sex-marriage-to-paedophilia-20190426-p51hij.html
Homeowners hoping that a widely-predicted cut in the Reserve Bank’s cash interest rate will breathe some life into the property market will be disappointed writes Elizabeth Knight.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/don-t-expect-rate-cuts-to-end-the-housing-slump-20190426-p51hlp.html
John Wren takes a walk on the campaign trail, uncovering scandals, misinformation and a PHONy or two.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/wrens-week-watergate-happy-clappers-and-hansons-dinosaurs,12612
The parent of a man who has been in gaol explains why there is next to no rehabilitation occurring. Unsurprisingly privatisation gets a mention.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/wonder-why-prisoners-re-offend-here-s-my-son-s-story-20190426-p51hgy.html
Jim Bright explains why social media platforms are no place to conduct work disputes.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/social-media-platforms-are-no-place-to-conduct-work-disputes-20190423-p51gm7.html
Some journalists have launched a defence of mainstream reporters suggesting that social media criticism of journalists is coming from a “Trumpian” perspective. This view has also been expressed in a recent column by ABC talking head, Michael Rowland.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/twitter-wars-mainstream-media-versus-the-fifth-estate,12614
What is it about dogs and fleas?
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/photographer-hurt-in-scuffle-at-fraser-anning-press-conference-20190426-p51hig.html
US Deputy Attorney-General Rod Rosenstein has hit back hard against politicians and the press, and warned that hacking and social media manipulation are “only the tip of the iceberg” when it comes to Russian efforts to influence American elections.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/rod-rosenstein-fires-back-at-critics-over-mueller-report-20190426-p51hk3.html
Anne Summers looks at the choices facing the US Democrats as they commence the convoluted process to select a presidential candidate.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/don-t-expect-rate-cuts-to-end-the-housing-slump-20190426-p51hlp.html
The London Telegraph opines that Trump has just taken the biggest economic gamble of his presidency.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/trump-has-just-taken-the-biggest-economic-gamble-of-his-presidency-20190426-p51hdi.html
Trump has announced that the US will withdraw its support for a United Nations treaty regulating the multibillion-dollar global arms trade.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/apr/26/trump-nra-united-nations-arms-treaty-gun-control
Of all people Fox News senior judicial analyst Andrew Napolitano has argued that Donald Trump did obstruct justice, with “unlawful, defenceless and condemnable” behaviour related to the investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/apr/26/fox-news-andrew-napolitano-trump-obstruct-justice-op-ed
This upstart doctor has earned nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/26/doctor-suspended-over-remarks-also-shared-patient-x-rays-online
Cartoon Corner
Alan Moir takes us to the election battleground.
A bit of ying and yang from David Rowe.
Andrew Dyson at the polling booths.
Matt Davison on infrastructure promises.
Zanetti on Palmer’s preference deal.
I think Sean Leahy is on the money with this one.
Jon Kudelka looks ahead to the possible MPC debate.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/4eb9f40c2385e8286650f364e2828076?width=1024
From the US
Convicted Russian spy Maria Butina gets 18 months in prison: ‘I have destroyed my own life’
Maria Butina, the Russian woman accused of running a spy operation that sought to influence key conservative groups. has been sentence to 18 months in federal prison -(9 with credit for time served) . After that, she is expected to be sent back to Russia, NBC reports.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/04/convicted-russian-spy-maria-butina-gets-18-months-prison-destroyed-life/
Two Mueller prosecutors believe they had ‘sufficient evidence’ to criminally charge Trump with obstruction
Sources with knowledge of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation have told journalist Murray Waas that at least two prosecutors on Mueller’s team believe they had enough evidence to charge President Donald Trump with criminal obstruction of justice — but they didn’t do so because of the Department of Justice’s policy that a sitting president cannot be indicted.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/04/two-mueller-prosecutors-believe-sufficient-evidence-criminally-charge-trump-obstruction/
Joe Biden Posts Big Fundraising Numbers In The First 24 Hours Of His Campaign
Joe Biden set a new 2020 fundraising record and blew past the competition by raising $6.3 million in 24 hours with an average donation of $41 online.
https://www.politicususa.com/2019/04/26/joe-biden-smashes-fundraising-record-by-raising-6-3-million-in-24-hours.html
Deputy PM Whatshisname has an idea.
.
.
City kids will be bussed to farms on excursions and “mini-farms” will be set up in urban schools under a Coalition program .
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/push-for-kids-to-stay-close-to-food-source/news-story/9a09b76730c0c012ec4801749cf2a1eb
@poroti
Lol just another dodgy policy most likely outsourced by private company.
poroti,
Sounds a bit like a “ Yes Minister “ episode I saw once.
We have them in NSW already. Agricultural High Schools have a farm attached. They are in urban areas.
Another seat poll.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election-2019/federal-election-2019-liberal-partys-blue-ribbon-seat-of-curtin-hanging-by-thread-according-to-new-poll-ng-b881176459z
Mediocre policy that helps to fund the ‘back in black’ myth.
https://www.outline.com/kuy5ST
We also have them in SA. Example – Urrbrae. You can often buy their “farm” produce. In the southern suburbs.
The only way Libs know how to fight is by cheating.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/wrens-week-watergate-happy-clappers-and-hansons-dinosaurs,12612
Finally a good burn from Labor
It’s a marriage between an “ad man” and a “con man”… that’s the way Labor’s described the preference deal between Scott Morrison and Clive Palmer.
#9News | http://9News.com.au
https://www.facebook.com/251142965231407/posts/926219721057058
“Any day that features Barnaby Joyce, Malcolm Turnbull or Tony Abbott is a bad day for the govt”, says Barrie Cassidy.
https://twitter.com/InsidersABC/status/1121579216967880705
I was robopolled in Cowper a few weeks back with supporting questions that made it sound like a Nats internal poll. Interesting to hear that they’ve all but given up. Locally, it seems they gave up before they started, with a weak candidate who hasn’t said or done much. I saw him in the shops in Coffs yesterday – surrounded by posters filling a pop-up shopfront. He was chatting to one punter, and being roundly ignored by everyone else.
I reckon Page is a good chance of falling to Labor. The Nats are on the nose big time in Northern NSW. There’s a lot of Greens voters in that seat too who’s preferences should boost Labor over the top of the Nats, just as they did in the overlapping NSW state seat of Lismore recently. One to watch on election night for sure.
Where’s Tony Windsor when you need him to get rid of Barnaby? Surely someone has to take him out.
lefty_e
They are doing a remake of this. ‘Fake and the FatMan.”
Good Morning
Thanks William for the update.
Interesting Senate results. Voter intention there is more favourable for the progressive cause than I feared If that holds up.
Yet another franchise under scrutiny
This time the Taiwan based Chatime. They are essentially a tea house remodelled for western tastes.
Today’s Age has the story and background of the two upstanding characters who are at the centre of this story.
Grubs
A pox on both of them. Meeiyeee
Confessions @ #18 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 7:41 am
Is it the right time, now that Easter and Anzac day is over, for somebody to release cabinets minutes re: ScoMo’s muslim plan to see the light.?
@Confessions
If that poll in Curtin is accurate, I think a lot of people are underestimating how big the cross-bench is going to be after the federal election.
It’s from Facebook and no link to source, but according to this here’s another ‘achievement’ of this govt: Australia has an even higher percentage of 65+yos living in relative poverty than the US.
https://www.facebook.com/PrimeChinister/photos/a.328049377762290/437977356769491/?type=3&theater
Tom:
You betcha.
That Senate poll is encouraging. If the Greens and Labor were both to perform well like that then there’s a decent chance they can get to a majority without needing anyone else. That would give us the ability to really go about cleaning up the Coalition’s mess. It would make negotiating much easier for Labor too because they’d only have to deal with the Greens as a block rather than the Greens + random individuals with their own agendas. If I were a Labor supporter that’s what I’d be hoping for as it offers the best chance for a stable and productive government.
Very interesting set of anecodotes – which doesn’t at all accord with the overriding media narrative. Only 3 weeks to go!
Firefox
I think you could be right about Page, especially given state results in Lismore and Ballina. Maybe this is why Kevin Hogan is saying he might sit on the cross bench if Labor win the election. Seems he won’t get this chance.
If SFF had not used up most of their resources, energy and candidates at the state election I think they would have really done some damage to the Nationals – especially Parkes but maybe also New England.
Firefox, I think to win a Greens/ALP majority in the Senate is pretty unlikely. Don’t they need a combined 4 in a couple of states plus ACT or something? I’d say that’s an extremely tough ask.
@ltep
Labor and the Greens would need to win a total of 4 senators in at least three states to get 39 senators elected between them.
Anyway I can see Greens Senators elected in every state on the basis of that polling. When it comes to the other minor parties, Clive Palmer might get elected in Queensland and maybe Jackie Lambie in Tasmania. However I believe that is about it, because the right-wing populist vote is so fragmented and one of these parties would need about 7% of the vote to get a reasonable chance of get a senate seat.
As a progressive voter, I found the Victorian Senate ticket very hard last election, and Hinch got one of my preferences as part of the six. He wouldn’t now, and having looked at the Senate ticket this time around, I feel there’s a lot more choice for those of us who want to maximise our preferences.
ltep @ #32 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 7:58 am
Especially as expert psephological analysis has The Greens with fewer Senators after the election, than before.
Labor 1
HEMP 2
in the Senate for me, as per usual.
Numbers 4 through 6 I am yet to decide on.
“Firefox, I think to win a Greens/ALP majority in the Senate is pretty unlikely. Don’t they need a combined 4 in a couple of states plus ACT or something? I’d say that’s an extremely tough ask.”
Oh I agree, it will be hard to get there, but if the results from this poll William has shared with us were replicated in the election there’d be a decent chance of it happening.
Yes, Labor currently have 26 senators and the Greens have 9. They’d need to retain all their current spots and gain 4 more between them to get to the magic number of 39. Tough but not impossible.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-27/french-subs-cultural-clashes-lunch-meeting-times-naval-group/11049748
Id wager VIC is the only place where a 4 left -2 right senate result is likely. Ie 3 Lab, 1 Green V 1 Coalition + 1 other ( hinch or 2nd Coalition).
I think because of the high vote required ACT will remain 1 Lib and Lab (Greens wont poll well enough to beat Libs on Lab preferences).
Firefox
Yes. Plus as Tristo points out with Lambie and Palmer as likely two if the improbable fails that’s better than more PHON.
It would be nice if Adani delivered a Greens Senator instead of Palmer. I think it’s unlikely but FNQ is not a right wing block so maybe just maybe it could happen.
“Especially as expert psephological analysis has The Greens with fewer Senators after the election, than before.”
C@t, being a rusted on Labor supporter as you are, this wouldn’t be something you’d want. Labor having to negotiate with a heap of different far right Senators would be a nightmare for them to have to deal with.
It’s going to be a fight for the Greens to keep all our spots but it always is. It’s probably going to come down to a Green vs a far right minor party candidate from One Nation etc… for the final spots in NSW, QLD and SA. I’d hope Labor supporters would be backing us in such a situation. I know I’d definitely be backing Labor if they were fighting over a seat with One Nation. 100%. Every day of the week.
The worst part is none of us will know for weeks what the Senate will look like. I find those waits incredibly frustrating lol.
As an SA Senate voter, I will be voting 1 Labor, 2 Greens, 3 Centre Alliance. I will number all above line boxes with Liberals near the tail end (though ahead of ONP and the Annings). I am not necessarily a fan of Centre Alliance but would prefer them to get up rather than a 3rd Liberal. I suspect the outcome might be 2 Labor, 1 Green, 1 Centre Alliance and 2 Liberals.
Outsider
That’s probably how I’ll vote too.
Outsider
But in Mayo I will vote strategically for Rebekha Sharkie as Labor has no hope whatsoever of winning. Mind you, she has been a very good MP these last three years and deserves another term.
Firefox, if The Greens drop their ‘my way or the highway’ intransigence when it comes to post-election negotiations, then that will be a better reason to vote for The Greens more highly than other Progressive parties in the Senate. Until then, not so much. The AJP for a start are much more willing to negotiate in good faith. And that’s what I want. Adults around the negotiating table.
One of the reasons I want Palmer to fail despite how it’s looking is I don’t want money to buy an election.
The fact it might is a very good argument for public funding.
If the polls haven’t shifted in two weeks, it’s very hard to see how they will shift. A substantial Labor victory looks baked in. However, I don’t think Newspoll will let the numbers go outside the 52- 48 range until the election (which will be worse for the libs)
“I think because of the high vote required ACT will remain 1 Lib and Lab (Greens wont poll well enough to beat Libs on Lab preferences).”
The Greens winning that ACT Senate spot would be an enormous achievement. It’s extremely tough for a third party to win in that situation where there’s only two spots. Canberra is a very progressive city though. The ACT Liberals are very conservative too which is totally at odds with the area they seek to represent.
Labor voters in Canberra must remember to preference the Greens. I know most will anyway. The Greens and Labor work exceptionally well together in the ACT and there’s a lot of goodwill between the parties there. We have a rare opportunity to completely shut out the right in a senate contest. Let’s do it!
I find it very hard to pick up any real sense of what is going on with this election. People I know don’t seem to want to talk about it. This does fit with a narrative that perhaps to a greater extent than usual, people have already made up their minds and they just want it over with. Which aligns with WB’s anecdotes at the top of the thread. I also bear in mind something that Zoomster said about the media coverage a week or so ago – to the effect they want to portray it as a close contest, because otherwise it will be boring. I think boring suits Labor this time round. I will be keen to see tomorrow night’s Newspoll. Put me down for 52-48 (Labor leading) in both Newspoll and ER, which I also think will be close to the final election outcome.
The Greens were pretty supportive of Labor’s agenda during the 2010-13 term, which helped make a period of minority government pretty productivr, legislatively speaking.
In terms of parliamentary process it wasn’t so great – with the Greens willing to side with Labor to shut down debate.
This is one of the issues I have with the Greens. The ends justify the means for them rather than it necessarily coming from a principled position. I find process to be important as well as outcome.