Election minus three weeks

A Senate poll, and reporting on the Coalition’s struggles to identify a pathway to victory.

Now that the public holiday period is past, hopefully the floodgates will open on opinion polling very shortly. Certainly we can expect a Newspoll, presumably tomorrow evening, and surely an Essential Research to boot.

What we have for now is the rarity of a Senate poll, courtesy of the Australia Institute. This is part of a quarterly online survey conducted through Dynata, on this occasion targeted 1945 respondents. Nationally, the poll has the Coalition on 30% (35.2% in 2016), Labor on 34% (29.8%), the Greens on 10% (8.7%), One Nation on 7% (4.3%). The United Australia Party is only credited with 3%, though that may be because it hasn’t captured a recent surge in support. Based on these numbers, the Australia Institute’s overall assessment is that the Coalition will win 14 to 17 seats (plus 16 ongoing), Labor will win 15 (13 ongoing), the Greens five to six (three ongoing), One Nation one to four (one ongoing), the Centre Alliance zero or one (two ongoing). Derryn Hinch isn’t predicted to win, with only 3% support in Victoria (I wouldn’t be too sure about that myself, given the small sample here), and Jacqui Lambie is only a maybe (ditto). Cory Bernardi, we’re stuck with.

Latest horse race calling in the news media:

• Despite its cheerful headline (“Written-off Liberal back in the fight”), a report on Liberal internal polling in Victoria by John Ferguson of The Weekend Australian is almost all bad news for the Liberals, with a party source quoted saying “not much has changed since the start of the campaign”. The best news the report has to offer the Liberals is that Sarah Henderson only trails in Corangamite by “about three percentage points” (the recent ReachTEL poll showing the Liberals with a 54-46 lead was “highly unlikely to be right”), and that the Liberals believe themselves to be in front in Deakin. Elsewhere, the report restates the now established wisdom that Labor will win Dunkley, which neither leader has bothered to visit; says the Liberals will “struggle to hold” Chisholm, which is at the more favourable end of recent assessments for them; and implies they are behind in La Trobe, and perhaps also Casey. Furthermore, there is “increasing concern” about Greg Hunt in Flinders, and double-digit inner city swings that place Higgins “in doubt”. Josh Frydenberg is reckoned likely to surivive in Kooyong, but clearly not very convincingly.

Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reports the Coalition’s strategic reading of the situation as follows. Chisholm (Liberal 2.9%, Victoria), Dunkley (notional Labor 1.0%, Victoria), Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland) and Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW) are conceded as likely losses. Seats that are “must wins”, in the sense of being gained from Labor or independents, are Labor-held Herbert (Queensland, 0.0%), Lindsay (New South Wales, 1.1%), Bass (Tasmania, 5.4%) and Solomon (Northern Territory, 6.1%). This gets them to 76, if they can hold all the seats on a “must retain” list consisting of Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%, Victoria), La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria), Petrie (LNP 1.7%, Queensland), Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland), Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW), Robertson (Liberal 1.1%, NSW), Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland), Banks (Liberal 1.4%, NSW) and Capricornia (LNP 0.6%, Queensland).

Eryk Bagshaw of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Nationals have “all but given up hope” of holding off Rob Oakeshott in Cowper. In neighbouring Page, internal polling is said to show Nationals incumbent Kevin Hogan with a lead of 52-48 “in a worst case scenario”. Remarkably though, Hogan “has left the door open to sitting on the crossbench if Bill Shorten wins”.

• Going back nearly a week, Annika Smethurst in the Sunday Telegraph reported that “Labor and Coalition strategists admit the opening days of the federal election have hardly shifted a vote”. Both sides also agree that, thanks to his attack on Labor opponent Ali France in the first week of the campaign, Peter Dutton is “in serious strife” in Dickson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

685 comments on “Election minus three weeks”

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  1. A smile for the comments about MONA in Tassie from an earlier on…………..For some punters, anything beyond a Donald Duck cartoon would be a “freakfest for elites”. This doesn’t mean we need more DD cartoons. Reminds me though, that in a “Yes Minister/Yes Prime Minister?” episode there was talk of not finding enough money for the ‘yarts’ and Jim H threatened to cut funding for a prestigious London ballet company rather than some regional art programme…………Sir H was aghast……….so pandering to elites is an issue in some instances.

  2. Outsider @ #42 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 8:26 am

    As an SA Senate voter, I will be voting 1 Labor, 2 Greens, 3 Centre Alliance. I will number all above line boxes with Liberals near the tail end (though ahead of ONP and the Annings). I am not necessarily a fan of Centre Alliance but would prefer them to get up rather than a 3rd Liberal. I suspect the outcome might be 2 Labor, 1 Green, 1 Centre Alliance and 2 Liberals.

    Not sure of the logic in voting above the line.

    I’ll be voting below the line for the minimum 12 candidates.

    My logic is don’t reward any candidate who is associated with propping up coal, propping up the 1%ers and entrenching religious ideology in law.

  3. To maximise the progressive impact of your vote it is necessary to put the Greens ahead of Labor and Labor ahead of the LNP.

    Putting animal justice or a socialist party ahead of the Greens might make sense.

    Putting Labor ahead of the Greens is silly and counterproductive from a progressive standpoint.

  4. subgeometer

    I reckon Palmer has a change at a senate seat if he gets the Liberal remainder; but he will site alone.

    Given the size of the negative for the Liberals, boy have they been suckered.

  5. I see James Campbell from the Heraldsun is playing the booster again for the govt just as he did for the Victorian coalition before the Victorian election.
    Best to take his contributions with a large dose of scepticism.

  6. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 11:18 am

    I see James Campbell from the Heraldsun is playing the booster again for the govt just as he did for the Victorian coalition before the Victorian election.
    Best to take his contributions with a large dose of scepticism.

    ———-
    Yep, some of his calls before the Victorian election were laughable. It’s a shame he takes their drops at face value – he’s otherwise a half-decent pundit.

  7. [‘Larkins is aghast that – according to one poll at least – one in seven Townsville residents will help rekindle Palmer’s political career by giving his United Australia Party their first preference…’]

    It seems the further north one lives, the more the sun affects memories:

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/townsville-faces-its-demons-as-hero-turned-villain-comes-back-from-the-political-dead-20190426-p51hk7.html

    Extra funding should go to Cathy O’Toole to counter this nonsense.

  8. MONA is a massive draw card for the entire state, tourism into Hobart helps Launceston, Burnie, Stanley, Cradle Mountain etc.

    It can easily be sold that way.

  9. Putting Labor ahead of the Greens is silly and counterproductive from a progressive standpoint.

    We if you like talking about magical progress, and hate any actual real progress, if you like shutting the overton window rather than moving it to the progressive side, 100% agree.

  10. Nicholas @ #154 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 11:16 am

    To maximise the progressive impact of your vote it is necessary to put the Greens ahead of Labor and Labor ahead of the LNP.

    Putting animal justice or a socialist party ahead of the Greens might make sense.

    Putting Labor ahead of the Greens is silly and counterproductive from a progressive standpoint.

    Labor won’t be getting anything from me in the senate due to their ignorance of offshore asylum seeker torture, their propping up of coal, their neo-lib approach to tax cuts and newstart welfare, their links to certain dodgy unions and their support of religious ideology in law.

  11. My logic in Senate voting is to achieve an outcome that best promotes effective progressive government. If you want to analyse every candidate’s personal position on a host of issues and vote below the line for the minimum 12 candidates, then, depending on how you spray around your preferences, you run the risk of casting a vote that has little effective value.

  12. Outsider @ #163 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 11:23 am

    My logic in Senate voting is to achieve an outcome that best promotes effective progressive government. If you want to analyse every candidate’s personal position on a host of issues and vote below the line for the minimum 12 candidates, then, depending on how you spray around your preferences, you run the risk of casting a vote that has little effective value.

    I live in hope the majority of voters transition to below the line voting and make the effort to eliminate those undeserving of election to the senate.

  13. The Coalition will be absolutely delighted with voters like Rex, insuring that Labor will have to deal with all the nutty right wing parties in the senate.

  14. Nicko @ #165 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 11:30 am

    The Coalition will be absolutely delighted with voters like Rex, insuring that Labor will have to deal with all the nutty right wing parties in the senate.

    Why should I compromise my principles just because other voters are too apathetic and anti-social to vote for equality, the environment and the common good.

  15. Labor 1st preference in Qld Senate was pathetic in 2016. Maybe 2 quotas in a half Senate. They’d need to swing by the entire Green vote to be competitive for a third. If there isn’t going to be a Qld Greens senator than the progressive vote will be the remaining 1/7 that don’t elect a senator. That’s a worst case for Labor. It’s crazier than choosing Bob Day over Stirling Griff in 2013 (ancient history I know, but the kindest thing the Liblings ever did to Labor was to take away group voting tickets).

  16. BK – Adelaide District Cricket in the 60s and 70s was a high quality competition. I saw many test players of the day playing at suburban grounds. We lived in the eastern suburbs so I used to see a few games up at Kensington’s ground. And the great Barrie Robran played A Grade cricket for Prospect, if I remember correctly!

  17. Putting Labor ahead of the Greens is silly and counterproductive from a progressive standpoint.

    According to the political compass I am as left as the Greens on economic matters and between Greens and ALP on being socially progressive.
    I will be voting ALP 1, Greens 2 because I would rather see some progress than get 100% of nothing.

  18. “That Senate poll is encouraging. If the Greens and Labor were both to perform well like that then there’s a decent chance they can get to a majority without needing anyone else. That would give us the ability to really go about cleaning up the Coalition’s mess. It would make negotiating much easier for Labor too because they’d only have to deal with the Greens as a block rather than the Greens + random individuals with their own agendas. If I were a Labor supporter that’s what I’d be hoping for as it offers the best chance for a stable and productive government.”

    Hi Firefly.

    At this point, despite my serious reservations about the Greens, I tend to agree.

    It seems to me to be two possible outcomes for the senate:

    1. Labor + Greens falls short of the magic 39 senators required to pass legislation.

    However, Labor + Greens + CA = 39. In practical terms this broadly equates to the situation that existed in November-December 2009 after the Abbott libspill – Labor + Greens + two lib dissenters = 39.

    In a previous thread you said that under this scenario the Greens would have to hold their nose and vote for something that in effect resembled Fry-the-planet’s NEG. This would represent a marked reversal of negotiation strategy than that adopted by the Greens in 2009:- the ‘imperative’ of a 40% global reduction in emissions saw the Greens demand that Labor publicly bend the knee to saint Bob Brown and commit to a minimum 25% reduction in emissions over the same timeframe before the Greens would enter negotiations about the actual design of the CRPS – and those negotiations would largely consist of Christine Milne greensplaining to Penny just how shit Labor was. Of course this was a manifest absurdity for 2 obvious reasons.

    Firstly, a global reduction by 2020 was never anything more than wunderwuffle – either before or after Copenhagen. In fact the design of the CRPS had built in pivot points in the event of a global deal designed to reduce Australia’s emissions by up to 25% by 2020 and up to 85% by 2050 – which is what the Stern report was then advising.

    Secondly, at all stages in that particular parliament Labor + Greens always equalled a number less than 39. When labor chose Turnbull as its negotiating partner one could understand the Greens intransigence – let labor and the LNP own the CRPS. Then get the balance of power in the following term and negotiate improvements with labor. One can even get a sense of what the Greens wanted after the Abbott Leadershit – Rudd to call a DD and then after the election have the balance of power and prove to be an easier path to negotiate than a joint siting over the CRPS 1.0.

    Alas. The Greens chose poorly. If the Greens chose more wisely next term I would welcome it.

    The other possibility is the one you hope for: Labor + Greens = 39+.

    Even if the Greens and labor achieve this I beg Labor and the Greens to not repeat their 2011 mistake, re: the ETS. I hasten to point out that IMO there was little wrong with the ETS as policy, but the deal represented a breach of faith with enough of ‘middle Australia’ to kill both the government and the scheme itself. It was the third of the five great political ‘surprises!’ foisted on the Australian public between 2005 and 2015: the first was Howard’s workchoices ‘surprise’. The second was Gillard’s June 2010 coup ‘surprise’. The Fourth was Abbott’s 2014 budget ‘surprise’ and the fifth was Lucien Aye’s RWNJ Faustian pact surprise of 2015.

    As a consequence of these five surprises trust in the political process is at an all time low. If the Greens hold true to their stated pledge to force Labor to abandon its NEG plus policy in favour of a more radical policy (an ETS redux for example. Banning all thermal coal mining and shutting down all coal power stations by 2030 more likley) in labor’s first term then there is only one political outcome: a vicious RWNJ government in 2022. Labor would be punished without mercy for perpetrating another post election policy ‘surprise’. I can tell you that Labor simply won’t be up for that. Not one little bit

    My message to the Greens is simply this. Work with Labor to enact labor’s election policy and use THAT to extract a decent pivot for the second term of government. If labor and the greens both to take the people with the. (and I’m not talking about guytaur’s imaginary friends, but the workers in rural Queensland, western Australia and the western suburbs of our major east cost cities) then the next decade promises to be a cornucopia of public progress. Otherwise it will be another decade of political disaster.

  19. Is the ALP running a postal vote campaign in Boothby? It certainly isn’t in Sturt. Labor will struggle in both seats because of the franking credits issue.

  20. BK – Adelaide District Cricket in the 60s and 70s was a high quality competition. I saw many test players of the day playing at suburban grounds. We lived in the eastern suburbs so I used to see a few games up at Kensington’s ground. And the great Barrie Robran played A Grade cricket for Prospect, if I remember correctly!
    ____
    Yes Outsider, they were halcyon days! Some of the other players for Prospect in that era were Terry Jenner, Ashley Mallett, Geoff Hammond, Gary Cosier, Younis Ahmed and Rodney Hogg.
    I recall one match at Prospect Oval where 5000 turned up to see us play against arch rivals Glenelg.

  21. Peter Brent reckons the fix is in with the LNP, Murdoch and their stooge Palmer. Makes a compelling case.. if so, it’s a dumb fix.

    “Clive Palmer and the Coalition parties have kissed, made up and agreed to direct preferences to each other. By direct preferences, we mean that how-to-vote cards handed out by Palmer’s United Australia Party will advise its supporters to put a number 2 next to the Coalition candidate, and vice versa. (If not a 2, on the Coalition’s cards, then at least a number above Labor’s.) Palmer’s rhetoric, meanwhile, has taken a decidedly anti-Labor turn.

    The Queensland’s businessman’s relations with another, not-unrelated entity have also warmed. Things seem very cosy with News Corp, the media outfit Palmer has spent years raging against. This week his party ran multiple full-page ads in the Australian and News’s tabloids, and News gave him uncharacteristically soft treatment in its reporting.

    But wait, there’s more. On Easter Saturday the Australian conducted four seat-level Newspolls, in Herbert, Deakin, Pearce and Lindsay, with the results published on Tuesday. Unusually, the pollster included Palmer’s UAP in the initial readout of small parties.

    When pollsters contact people and ask them “which of the following will you vote for?” they usually read out a list of the major parties, the Greens and, in recent years, One Nation. Other minor parties are either read out to respondents who chose “other,” or are left to the respondent to nominate in a follow-up question.

    Pollsters have to decide when a minor party is receiving enough to support to be included in that first question. When they are included, the results tend to overstate their support; when they’re left off, they understate it.

    Most pollsters added One Nation to their list after the last federal election. Newspoll added the Greens after the 2007 election.

    Now, it’s likely that including any old name (just make one up, especially with the word Australia in it) would generate a few per cent of support. Which is why, as a rule, minor parties would kill to get onto that list. Yes, it does mean that they go on to perform less impressively at elections than the polls suggested (see the Greens, and One Nation at state level over the past few years), but it sure generates publicity.“

    https://insidestory.org.au/its-not-what-you-ask-its-how-you-ask-it/

  22. First A+ poll of Trumps approval rating for a while. ABC News/Washington Post. 54-39. Ouch.

    Trump isnt just worried about Biden. He is just plain worried.

  23. William – Centre Alliance only have 1 outgoing Senate position (now indep) with 2 ongoing.

    Any progressive voter who doesn’t either fill out all the boxes Above Line or at least 80% (preferrably 99%) of Below Line boxes has no idea about preferences in the Senate.

  24. antonbruckner11
    says:
    Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 9:36 am

    Hartcher is queuing up for the “A”-grade drip when Labor gets into office. Thanks for showing us the way ahead when times were dark Pete.

    🙂
    A pity more journo’s aren’t cottoning on to that either. Got to get the drip…

  25. sprocket_ @ #178 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 11:52 am

    Peter Brent reckons the fix is in with the LNP, Murdoch and their stooge Palmer. Makes a compelling case.. if so, it’s a dumb fix.

    “Clive Palmer and the Coalition parties have kissed, made up and agreed to direct preferences to each other. By direct preferences, we mean that how-to-vote cards handed out by Palmer’s United Australia Party will advise its supporters to put a number 2 next to the Coalition candidate, and vice versa. (If not a 2, on the Coalition’s cards, then at least a number above Labor’s.) Palmer’s rhetoric, meanwhile, has taken a decidedly anti-Labor turn.

    The Queensland’s businessman’s relations with another, not-unrelated entity have also warmed. Things seem very cosy with News Corp, the media outfit Palmer has spent years raging against. This week his party ran multiple full-page ads in the Australian and News’s tabloids, and News gave him uncharacteristically soft treatment in its reporting.

    But wait, there’s more. On Easter Saturday the Australian conducted four seat-level Newspolls, in Herbert, Deakin, Pearce and Lindsay, with the results published on Tuesday. Unusually, the pollster included Palmer’s UAP in the initial readout of small parties.

    When pollsters contact people and ask them “which of the following will you vote for?” they usually read out a list of the major parties, the Greens and, in recent years, One Nation. Other minor parties are either read out to respondents who chose “other,” or are left to the respondent to nominate in a follow-up question.

    Pollsters have to decide when a minor party is receiving enough to support to be included in that first question. When they are included, the results tend to overstate their support; when they’re left off, they understate it.

    Most pollsters added One Nation to their list after the last federal election. Newspoll added the Greens after the 2007 election.

    Now, it’s likely that including any old name (just make one up, especially with the word Australia in it) would generate a few per cent of support. Which is why, as a rule, minor parties would kill to get onto that list. Yes, it does mean that they go on to perform less impressively at elections than the polls suggested (see the Greens, and One Nation at state level over the past few years), but it sure generates publicity.“

    https://insidestory.org.au/its-not-what-you-ask-its-how-you-ask-it/

    It’s one of those arrangements that has a lot of moving parts and could explode like the Hindenberg Blimp if there is a gas leak. That gas leak might be an actual poll showing the arrangement is more likely to have Libs vote for Palmer’s Group or abandon the Libs entirely.

  26. .@AlboMP on @CliveFPalmer “Scott Morrison had a choice between standing up for ripped off workers or sucking up to a tosser who ripped them off and he chose the tosser” (This one will be replayed if Labor is elected and Palmer wins a Senate seat)

  27. sprocket_ @ #186 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 11:59 am

    .@AlboMP on @CliveFPalmer “Scott Morrison had a choice between standing up for ripped off workers or sucking up to a tosser who ripped them off and he chose the tosser” (This one will be replayed if Labor is elected and Palmer wins a Senate seat)

    Along with Wong’s ‘The voters have a choice between an ad-man and a con man”!

  28. AE

    You have it wrong. Just admit. Labor stuffed up it lost the election as a result.

    Scapegoating the Greens does not change this fact.

    As is the fact the deniers were always going to deny. Appeasing them is like trying to appease flat earth people. There is no point.

    The science counts.

  29. Adelaide District Cricket in the 60s and 70s was a high quality competition.

    twasnt long ago Peter Sleep played in Hills Cricket. Trying to remember who he played for…. Bridgy maybe?

    And I remember facing a chap called Tarque Williamson who was from the cricket academy – playing for Scott Creek i think. He could nudge 150km/h and was a handful on coir with a two piece.

  30. Spence yep.

    To increase the progressive vote in the Senate vote Greens 1 Labor 2 then keep going with conservative Independent like Hinch then LNP then the rest of the RWNJ choices last.

  31. J341983 Quite frankly – I just want a non-RWNJ Senate.

    And to achieve this requires voting preferences for all of the parties who have any chance of winning a seat. It particularly requires voting for all the the progressive parties in some order, then “centrists” such as Centre Alliance, Hinch, Lambie etc, then the LNP and similar and then the least worst of the RWNJs through to the worst. If you don’t put preferences for ON ahead of Anning for example then you are effectively helping a near Fascist against nutty racist rightwingers.

  32. More journos will turn when the result becomes inevitable.

    They love nothing more than to be on the winning side and being able to say “I told you so”

    If the Newspoll and Essential do not show much movement in the Coalition’s direction (and from what I’ve read, internal polling is saying very few votes have shifted in the first 2 weeks) they’ll likely start an orderly about face and say they always believed labor would win, and also start paying more attention to Labor’s policies and less to Morrison’s hysterical ratings.

  33. Sprocket – Fascinating insight from Peter Brent. Further proof too that Newspoll has sold its soul to the devil. News corpse must have got Newspoll to put Clive on the A-list. Newspoll cannot be trusted.

  34. I also read somewhere (twitter) that tomorrow Labor will be releasing a comprehensive policy with regards to the Integrity Commission … with money and structure outline that will be substantial.

    I am hoping this is so because it will disarm Morrison’s confidence somewhat before the first debate – and will likely get media on side more because the integrity commission will be a good source of copy for them.

  35. What good are principles when you vote to achieved absolutely none of them.
    Some would rather feel good for 5 seconds, rather than making sure we try to make change where practical or realistic, in what is a highly toxic political environment, where almost half of the country will vote for right wing parties regardless.

  36. jenauthor @ #193 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 12:11 pm

    More journos will turn when the result becomes inevitable.

    They love nothing more than to be on the winning side and being able to say “I told you so”

    If the Newspoll and Essential do not show much movement in the Coalition’s direction (and from what I’ve read, internal polling is saying very few votes have shifted in the first 2 weeks) they’ll likely start an orderly about face and say they always believed labor would win, and also start paying more attention to Labor’s policies and less to Morrison’s hysterical ratings.

    They’ll re-programme Loony Tune cartoons on high rotation in place of Fox after Dark.

  37. The Toorak Toff says:
    Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 11:57 am

    Rex it seems is advocating a de facto vote for right-wing nuttery. A strange way to remain true to his principles.

    Rex certainly isn’t known for his deep analysis and possibly consequences of his views. 🙂

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