Election minus three weeks

A Senate poll, and reporting on the Coalition’s struggles to identify a pathway to victory.

Now that the public holiday period is past, hopefully the floodgates will open on opinion polling very shortly. Certainly we can expect a Newspoll, presumably tomorrow evening, and surely an Essential Research to boot.

What we have for now is the rarity of a Senate poll, courtesy of the Australia Institute. This is part of a quarterly online survey conducted through Dynata, on this occasion targeted 1945 respondents. Nationally, the poll has the Coalition on 30% (35.2% in 2016), Labor on 34% (29.8%), the Greens on 10% (8.7%), One Nation on 7% (4.3%). The United Australia Party is only credited with 3%, though that may be because it hasn’t captured a recent surge in support. Based on these numbers, the Australia Institute’s overall assessment is that the Coalition will win 14 to 17 seats (plus 16 ongoing), Labor will win 15 (13 ongoing), the Greens five to six (three ongoing), One Nation one to four (one ongoing), the Centre Alliance zero or one (two ongoing). Derryn Hinch isn’t predicted to win, with only 3% support in Victoria (I wouldn’t be too sure about that myself, given the small sample here), and Jacqui Lambie is only a maybe (ditto). Cory Bernardi, we’re stuck with.

Latest horse race calling in the news media:

• Despite its cheerful headline (“Written-off Liberal back in the fight”), a report on Liberal internal polling in Victoria by John Ferguson of The Weekend Australian is almost all bad news for the Liberals, with a party source quoted saying “not much has changed since the start of the campaign”. The best news the report has to offer the Liberals is that Sarah Henderson only trails in Corangamite by “about three percentage points” (the recent ReachTEL poll showing the Liberals with a 54-46 lead was “highly unlikely to be right”), and that the Liberals believe themselves to be in front in Deakin. Elsewhere, the report restates the now established wisdom that Labor will win Dunkley, which neither leader has bothered to visit; says the Liberals will “struggle to hold” Chisholm, which is at the more favourable end of recent assessments for them; and implies they are behind in La Trobe, and perhaps also Casey. Furthermore, there is “increasing concern” about Greg Hunt in Flinders, and double-digit inner city swings that place Higgins “in doubt”. Josh Frydenberg is reckoned likely to surivive in Kooyong, but clearly not very convincingly.

Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reports the Coalition’s strategic reading of the situation as follows. Chisholm (Liberal 2.9%, Victoria), Dunkley (notional Labor 1.0%, Victoria), Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland) and Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW) are conceded as likely losses. Seats that are “must wins”, in the sense of being gained from Labor or independents, are Labor-held Herbert (Queensland, 0.0%), Lindsay (New South Wales, 1.1%), Bass (Tasmania, 5.4%) and Solomon (Northern Territory, 6.1%). This gets them to 76, if they can hold all the seats on a “must retain” list consisting of Corangamite (notional Labor 0.0%, Victoria), La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria), Petrie (LNP 1.7%, Queensland), Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland), Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW), Robertson (Liberal 1.1%, NSW), Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland), Banks (Liberal 1.4%, NSW) and Capricornia (LNP 0.6%, Queensland).

Eryk Bagshaw of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Nationals have “all but given up hope” of holding off Rob Oakeshott in Cowper. In neighbouring Page, internal polling is said to show Nationals incumbent Kevin Hogan with a lead of 52-48 “in a worst case scenario”. Remarkably though, Hogan “has left the door open to sitting on the crossbench if Bill Shorten wins”.

• Going back nearly a week, Annika Smethurst in the Sunday Telegraph reported that “Labor and Coalition strategists admit the opening days of the federal election have hardly shifted a vote”. Both sides also agree that, thanks to his attack on Labor opponent Ali France in the first week of the campaign, Peter Dutton is “in serious strife” in Dickson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

685 comments on “Election minus three weeks”

Comments Page 6 of 14
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  1. “I wonder how many were now wishing that Plibersek or Albanese were now contesting this election.”

    No one with more than two neurons. So, You, Rex……………

  2. @GG

    Nope. Nothing you said was correct. He is hated. The most unpopular candidate for an election since polling began. What cuckoo world do you live in? If he is so loved, where is he on campaign material? Can’t see him anywhere on mine in my electorate.

  3. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 12:32 pm
    If people like you voted similarly to me there’d be no coal proppers, no tax avoiders, no religious nutters, no discriminators , etc in the senate.
    ——————————–
    If people like you voted similarly to me Australia would be a workers paradise.
    If wishes were horses we would all be drowning in horse shit.

  4. It’s a seat poll but why not just sit back and enjoy the headline anyway 😆

    Federal Election 2019: Liberal Party’s blue-ribbon seat of Curtin ‘hanging by thread’, according to new poll

    The Liberal Party is facing a huge swing of more than 20 per cent against it in the prized blue-ribbon seat of Curtin, which would be the party’s worst result in the electorate since 1996, according to a new poll.

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election-2019/federal-election-2019-liberal-partys-blue-ribbon-seat-of-curtin-hanging-by-thread-according-to-new-poll-ng-b881176459z

  5. @lynchpin. Nope. I am right. Not going anywhere. The guy is useless. No good for the ALP. What if he loses the unloseable election?


  6. Lincoln says:
    Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 1:27 pm

    Shorten is, in essence, a coward and a fraud. Not across the issues and promoting two contradictory views on his Adani stance, in city and country. He is also not across detail and unwilling to prosecute it in public forums. A true PM must prove the capacity to do this.

    I wonder how many were now wishing that Plibersek or Albanese were now contesting this election. Bill is the biggest liability the ALP has.

    Is another round of Kill Bill all the Liberals have?
    Do they think Rex has done a shit of a job and little fine tuning is all that is required.
    I’d be upset Rex.

    Perhaps if they had offered something up market from Kill Bill and the raiding of treasury they wouldn’t now be in the position they are now in.

  7. Lincoln @ #253 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 1:33 pm

    @GG

    Nope. Nothing you said was correct. He is hated. The most unpopular candidate for an election since polling began. What cuckoo world do you live in? If he is so loved, where is he on campaign material? Can’t see him anywhere on mine in my electorate.

    Winners are grinners, sunshine. Losers like you can pleasure yourself.

  8. Lincoln, aka Capt GetUp

    “A true PM”?

    I wonder how many Liberal supporters are wishing Malcolm was still PM, or at worst Julie?

    Shorten has a Party behind him, where’s yours gone? 🙂

  9. Ballantyne – agree – I’ve also donated a chunk early in the campaign and I find it a little off-putting that we get these emails every day at the moment

  10. Lincoln @ #245 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 1:27 pm

    Shorten is, in essence, a coward and a fraud. Not across the issues and promoting two contradictory views on his Adani stance, in city and country. He is also not across detail and unwilling to prosecute it in public forums. A true PM must prove the capacity to do this.

    I wonder how many were now wishing that Plibersek or Albanese were now contesting this election. Bill is the biggest liability the ALP has.

    Yes perhaps. But he will thrash Morrison and the RW nutters, so what does it say about them.. ?

  11. lizzie @ #252 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 12:49 pm

    imacca

    I saw that. The MSM was ‘strangely’ silent on Chloe’s quick rescue. Mustn’t spoil the Bill is Bad theme, I s’pose.

    Chloe, Penny Wong, Tanya Plibersek & KK are an irresistible assets for Shorten. Even the Murdorcs can’t control the images, telling a story in ways that the Newscorpse machine can’t subvert.

    The ALP blokes aren’t doing badly either. The image of Bill running with JT, while ScuMo pants after Fat Clive is must still be causing Rupert reflux.

  12. jenauthor @ #263 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 1:39 pm

    Ballantyne – agree – I’ve also donated a chunk early in the campaign and I find it a little off-putting that we get these emails every day at the moment

    I don’t stress about it. t’s obviously an automated system designed to capture lots of small donations based on whatever metrics the party has of your past involvement/donations. Getup uses a similar system.

    If you don’t have the capacity to give any more at the moment, just ignore it – they’re certainly not expecting everyone to respond.

    Much better that they’re asking lots of ordinary people for donations rather than snuggling up to large corporate donors, although I suspect there is a lot of corporate money flowing in unprompted at the moment from companies that hope it will be noticed and spare them from being a target for the new government.

  13. Poliphili says:
    Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 1:32 pm
    Rex and Wayne – same same.
    —————————-
    That’s a bit hard on Wayne. At least he does not pretend to be rational.

  14. rhwombat @ #265 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 1:45 pm

    lizzie @ #252 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 12:49 pm

    imacca

    I saw that. The MSM was ‘strangely’ silent on Chloe’s quick rescue. Mustn’t spoil the Bill is Bad theme, I s’pose.

    Chloe, Penny Wong, Tanya Plibersek & KK are an irresistible assets for Shorten. Even the Murdorcs can’t control the images, telling a story in ways that the Newscorpse machine can’t subvert.

    The ALP blokes aren’t doing badly either. The image of Bill running with JT, while ScuMo pants after Fat Clive is must still be causing Rupert reflux.

    Scott looked like he was trying to get extremely friendly with that sheep this morning, too.

  15. “WA Liberals have questioned Scott Morrison’s snub to One Nation on how-to-vote cards, arguing Pauline Hanson’s party should be above Labor and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. ”

    Which tells you all you need to know about how much the W.A. learned from the 2019 W.A. state election i think. 🙂 Corrman and Cash still running things??

  16. “I thought everyone hates Shorten was last weeks attempted bootstrap.”

    Canines, Stomach Contents, Returning to. 🙁

    What else have they got since they lost “Be Afraid of Brown People in Boats” ??

  17. Greensborough Growler @ #608 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 1:50 pm

    rhwombat @ #265 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 1:45 pm

    lizzie @ #252 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 12:49 pm

    imacca

    I saw that. The MSM was ‘strangely’ silent on Chloe’s quick rescue. Mustn’t spoil the Bill is Bad theme, I s’pose.

    Chloe, Penny Wong, Tanya Plibersek & KK are an irresistible assets for Shorten. Even the Murdorcs can’t control the images, telling a story in ways that the Newscorpse machine can’t subvert.

    The ALP blokes aren’t doing badly either. The image of Bill running with JT, while ScuMo pants after Fat Clive is must still be causing Rupert reflux.

    Scott looked like he was trying to get extremely friendly with that sheep this morning, too.

    Even scared sheep are out of ScuMo’s class. He should stick to cestodes, like Clive.

    ScuMo’s one-man ba(n)d has got to be telling. I wonder if he will make the distance to the 18th May without collapsing.

  18. ‘mainstream Aussies are flocking to his cause’

    And the polls, which are stuck on 60/40 to the ALP are evidence of the flockery…oh, wait

  19. @rhwombat I agree with Chloe, Penny Wong, Tanya Pilbersek and Kristina Keneally being massive assets for the Labor party, especially in this age of identity politics on both the right and left. The left wing variety I find to be harmless, the right wing identity which is very hateful and degenerates into White supremacism is very toxic and dangerous for the body politic of this nation.

  20. I know you’re supposed to believe three impossible things before breakfast, or is it at the same time, or something, but holding on to the idea that it’s bad for the ALP that it has so many in its ranks who would make a fine Prime Minister is surely no mean feat.

  21. Late Riser @ #216 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 12:41 pm

    Speaking of journalists, Shorten won over Tingle with his bus tour a few weeks back. Murphy in her piece this morning has now had her “quality time with Shorten” and I think it shows in a softened tone, respectful even. It got me thinking that one by one Shorten is changing minds. Then I thought, but who selects the lucky journalist?

    Peter Hartcher too. 🙂

  22. Roger Miller says:
    Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 1:53 pm

    I thought everyone hates Shorten was last weeks attempted bootstrap.

    Bill Shorten eats worms!

  23. Scotty leaving Dubbo, destination unknown.

    ….and the Morrison media jet out of Dubbo. That’s both media jets in the air *at the same time*. Quick, somebody make a gaffe! Nobody will ever know!

  24. Lincoln
    says:
    Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 1:27 pm
    Shorten is, in essence, a coward and a fraud. Not across the issues and promoting two contradictory views on his Adani stance, in city and country. He is also not across detail and unwilling to prosecute it in public forums. A true PM must prove the capacity to do this.
    I wonder how many were now wishing that Plibersek or Albanese were now contesting this election. Bill is the biggest liability the ALP has.
    ______________________________________
    Lincoln I could kiss you. I’ve been arguing the same on here for 7 months or so, often attracting quite nasty abuse from people who enjoy staring at that alien-headed fraud.

  25. Just saw on ABC24.

    So, apparently agriculture is sexy again?? And that comment from a Lib talking head just after a clip of ScoMo holding down a sheep while shaving it. Mango Butter anyone?? 🙂

  26. Lincoln:

    [‘ Bill is the biggest liability the ALP has.’]

    Pray tell the viewer: when was the last time the Tories led in a poll? – the PPM metric being next to inconsequential in the overall scheme of things.

  27. Rightly so Nath … your pathological obsession with Shorten would probably justify a restraining order in the real world. Looks like our new addition would be joining you.

  28. J341983
    says:
    Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 2:07 pm
    Rightly so Nath … your pathological obsession with Shorten would probably justify a restraining order in the real world.
    _____________________________
    I’ll pay that. kinda funny.

  29. imacca says:
    Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 2:05 pm

    Just saw on ABC24.

    So, apparently agriculture is sexy again?? And that comment from a Lib talking head just after a clip of ScoMo holding down a sheep while shaving it. Mango Butter anyone??

    Maybe he will jump on a tractor and mow a wheat crop.

  30. It’s tiring isn’t it, when people come to this blog and just reiterate the shop-worn memes about Bill Shorten, as if they have been blinded by their own enlightenment and must communicate it with us?

  31. Barney in Da Lat @ #291 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 2:11 pm

    imacca says:
    Saturday, April 27, 2019 at 2:05 pm

    Just saw on ABC24.

    So, apparently agriculture is sexy again?? And that comment from a Lib talking head just after a clip of ScoMo holding down a sheep while shaving it. Mango Butter anyone??

    Maybe he will jump on a tractor and mow a wheat crop.

    And what ANY of it has to do with running a country I’ll never know.

  32. I don’t hate Bill. I just think he shouldn’t be PM. He wants it soooo bad. Should we reward a mediocre student who plotted his way to be PM? A man who has never done anything apart from scheme and knife and do dodgy deals? All to satisfy his ambition. Nath says no.

  33. >Bill is the biggest liability the ALP has.

    This might be true. But the liability is so small that compared with all the other parties liabilities it is nothing.

  34. sprocket_ @ #283 Saturday, April 27th, 2019 – 2:04 pm

    Scotty leaving Dubbo, destination unknown.

    ….and the Morrison media jet out of Dubbo. That’s both media jets in the air *at the same time*. Quick, somebody make a gaffe! Nobody will ever know!

    There’s an Alliance Airlines Fokker 70 showing no flight numbers that left Dunno a little while ago and it’s heading for Sydney. Alliance do a lot of charter work so presumably that’s Morrison’s plane.

    Where did Shorten take off from?

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