Yesterday was the day on which candidate nominations declared and ballot paper draws conducted. The electorate pages in the Poll Bludger election guide now feature full lists of candidates in ballot paper order, though the job is still half finished for the Senate guide. House of Representatives nominations are up, with the average number per electorate being almost exactly seven, compared with 6.6 in 2016. However, there are fewer Senate nominations, presumably because a half-Senate election offers small players less prospect for success than a double dissolution.
To my eye, the two points worth noting about the ballot paper draws is that the Liberals and One Nation have both enjoyed good fortune in the Senate (I don’t think the fabled “donkey vote” in the House of Representatives worth dwelling on, as it really doesn’t amount to very much). The Liberals (taken to include the Liberal National Party in Queensland) has drawn a more leftward column than the Liberal Democrats in all six states, reducing their chances of voters confusing the two. One Nation have drawn second column in Queensland and the first column in Western Australia, although the advantage in the former case is diminished by the fact that the United Australia Party, who would seem to me to be fighting over the same turf, are right next to them in the third column.
Over the fold are presentations of House of Representatives candidate numbers for each party; the number of groups and candidates in the Senate; and how they have changed from 2016.
House of Representatives nominations
Senate nominations
I hope someone sends a copy of the hybird DT/SMH to the Australian National Museum – they love collecting election material and this could be an iconic object from the 2019 election.
Sort of like the “Inverted Jenny” US postage stamp.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_Jenny
I think labor needs to be proud of the connection to society that the unions bring. The conflict of ideas represents the reality of society. They should be proud of their national conference. They should be proud there is still enough interest to generate a conflict of ideas.
Labor doesn’t need an IPA, they have members.
Late Riser
I’ll have a 52-48 thanks
Really Tristo?
The FACTS are that a larger number of previously part self funded retirees are now fully self funded retirees due to the changes to Pension eligibility – and they are waiting with baseball bats
They are further aggrieved by the rorts availed of by the demographics enjoying the advantages of Franking Credits and Negative Gearing – as is anyone not availing of these rorts AND some who do
Negative Gearing is speculation because you have no investment – Negative Gearing is predicated on debt and the servicing of that debt returning a LOSS (sub-prime anyone?)
Franking Credits is predicated on receiving no Tax Assessment from the ATO – but receiving a remittance from them
The core problem is the economic performance of the Nation reflected by the 10 Year Bond Yield now quoted at less than 1.8% after losing further basis points this week and the Cash Rate at 1.5% and under pressure due to Zero inflation and GBP at 0.2% and probably now negative
The upshot of this is that Term Deposit Rates have a 2 in front of them and falling – so people seek out more risk looking for returns
And the greater the rate the greater the risk – as those invested in Bank Shares to avail of Franking Credits can attest – they have lost 33% of their wealth seeking an unrealistic return confirming the higher the return the greater the risk
With a change in government and policy away from austerity delivering confidence, the economy will recover and the accommodative bias in the Cash Rate will correct to neutral – and Term Deposit interest rates will again suffice
The effects of tattoo ink on the brain
A One Nation candidate has been filmed making derogatory comments about gays and women and questioning the massacre at Port Arthur.
@jekearsley
#9News
https://publish.twitter.com/?query=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2F9NewsAUS%2Fstatus%2F1121331938017415168&widget=Tweet
EGW is sounding very bemused.
RR:
Yes esp that Anzac Day editorial claiming the day needs a makeover. I can imagine Piers Akerman choking on his breakfast McMuffin as he was flipping through the DT this morning 😆
adrian:
Something quite a few of us caught a week or so ago.
try 2 seconds to the power of negative a lot
That’s a. It excessive.
A wonderful image.
Fancy Collingwood supporters getting the shits at opposition fans booing players. Spare us this angst from the two-headed, six-fingered brigade.
I’d like to see 54 / 46 to Labor in Newspoll
Cheers
Shellbell says:
Thursday, April 25, 2019 at 7:59 pm
try 2 seconds to the power of negative a lot
Being an Essendon supporter I will go for the first version, 1 is a little better than 0.
frednk @ #594 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 7:50 pm
Is propping up thermal coal mining/exports, entrenching religious ideology in law, implementing dodgy EBA’s for kickback$, really ‘connecting to the general population’ ..?
And the jokes re the SMH/DT mix up just write themselves.
LNP in to $3.85 from $4.00 Labor out to $1.25 from $1.23 on Sportsbet
Same as at the start of the week, there was slight movement towards Labor
Newspoll: 51/49 for ALP (with a suspicion that the polls aren’t modelling this election correctly and even 50-50 is possible as a poll result, but there’s definitely a trend back to the Libs)
Essential: 52/48
Rex
You pick a particular point of view to support you Liberal staffer agenda.
The diversity of views and the depth of membership is labors strength.
It is all fought out; in open; at the national conference and the platform is developed. If you want to argue with the platform, do so. To represent the views of one group as the views of the movement is bullshit of the first order.
Andrew Hastie says people in Sri Lanka worshipping on easter Sunday shouldn’t be called ‘easter worshippers’ because it minimises what actually happened to them. 😮
Burgey @ #613 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 8:01 pm
—
on Anzac Day it was disgraceful whoever was playing – poor effort too to boo the player instead of the umpire who messed up. Your comments are pathetic in the extreme.
frednk @ #618 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 8:10 pm
It wasn’t ‘fought out in the open this year’. It was mostly stitched up in the backrooms to be then ‘announced’ on stage.
I wonder if he’s seen today’s editorial in the Daily Telegraph. 😀
Biden nominates in a move that will shock nobody.
In what way Adrian. Can’t see it myself.
Test
Rex Douglas says:
Thursday, April 25, 2019 at 8:14 pm
…..
It wasn’t ‘fought out in the open this year’. It was mostly stitched up in the backrooms to be then ‘announced’ on stage.
So says Rex Douglas; who I will bet my bottom dollar didn’t put in the effort to be involved in any way.
Darn @ #625 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 8:17 pm
Neither can I. He’s too well-mannered.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/former-vice-president-joe-biden-jumps-into-white-house-race/2019/04/25/093ff596-0aef-11e9-88e3-989a3e456820_story.html?utm_term=.468ace86ccf7
Confessions
I have just read that SMH editorial – must have gone down a treat at NewsCorp headquarters!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/anzac-day-celebration-must-evolve-20190424-p51guz.html
Every ANZAC Day my thoughts go to the millions of combatants and civilians who were so senselessly killed leaving broken families and broken societies ..all due to a small number of power-hungry, warmongering politicians.
Innocent minds were so ruthlessly manipulated then …and it still goes on today.
‘I’d like to see 54 / 46 to Labor in Newspoll’
Ain’t gonna happen Sceptic, those days are gorn…..you’re looking at a one trip to Broken Heartsville…..
Rocket:
It’s a thing of beauty. I’m picturing a foam-flecked Alan Jones angrily phoning News Ltd HQ demanding the head of whomever let that through on today of all days!
The Australian Taxpayer Alliance is non-partisan, just like the IPA. Its sources of funding are opaque, but seem to be wealthy individuals and corporate. There are similar organisations in the U.K., USA and elsewhere. When their people appear on the ABC, their right wing agenda should be disclosed.
Apart from their own propaganda, there’s not much information on them. Here is an article on the UK version from 2009:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/oct/09/taxpayers-alliance-conservative-pressure-group
I guess if we’re doing this tipping thing I’ll go with 50/50 for newspoll, 51/49 essential.
Better to have loved and lost than be a cranky fart.
Put me back to 56-44 LR. Until further notice.
Just for the record, I nailed the last poll (Morgan) with my 51-49.
There are more unionists than corporate directors and executives. Many more than billionaire mining, media and finance moguls.
For the record, I would actually love to see Kevin “Angry Elf” Andrews lose his seat. I’m just stirring with a bit of off the wall leadershit.
It would be interesting to know how many of Palmers candidates live in their electorates. He seemed to round up his merry band quickly.
Isn’t it funny how any organisation with the word “taxpayer” in their title is always constituted of individuals and organisations who dedicate considerable effort to paying no tax whatsoever.
The Australian Taxpayers Alliance have some interesting campaigns. One of which is ‘Give Back Our Codeine!’ 😆
http://www.taxpayers.org.au/
Steve777 says:
Thursday, April 25, 2019 at 8:30 pm
There are more unionists than corporate directors and executives.
It is worse than that; as globalization has taken hold the directors and executives living in Australia have declined; do you think the google board is interested in Australian politics? As the directors and executives disappear hillsong ministers take their place. Labor still represents a diverse range of Australians; the Liberal base has gone, the party hollowed out to be taken over. We are seeing the result.
Murdoch; living in some gated penthouse in New York, still takes an interest, unfortunately for us all.
What do people think has happened in the past fortnight to suggest the polls will move back to 50:50 or 51:49? Seriously. What? All that’s goong to happen is the more people see if Morrison the more they’ll dislike him. He’s the third choice PM of a fourth rate, divided Party. Let’s get real here people.
They are Grover Norquist/Koch Brothers-aligned Libertarians:
One thing’s for sure, they’ll never run out of money if they are linked back to America as it seems from this guy’s CV.
Also, I might add that Grover Norquist himself is in town and will be on QandA on Monday night with Chris Bowen et al. Which likely explains the Australian (We Don’t Want To Be) Taxpayers Alliance flurry of publicity right now.
Burgey
In the last two years the Liberals have only done better in the polls when they just shut up. Not been much shutup going on. I’m sticking with 53/47 to labor.
Propagandistic media commentary from all sources/sides, virtually all of it anti-Shorten/anti-Labor.
C@tmomma @ #658 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 6:37 pm
Pillbillies!
Burgey says:
Thursday, April 25, 2019 at 8:40 pm
Especially considering we’re the only ones who’ve supposedly been paying attention to the campaign. 🙂
Channel nine news tonight had reporter stating that Shorten would be spending next few days in Melbourne, as internal polling suggests the gap is closing in as Victorians are no longer upset about the dumping of Turnbull.
Victoria @ #650 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 8:44 pm
Or Bill wants to iron a few shirts at home.