Yesterday was the day on which candidate nominations declared and ballot paper draws conducted. The electorate pages in the Poll Bludger election guide now feature full lists of candidates in ballot paper order, though the job is still half finished for the Senate guide. House of Representatives nominations are up, with the average number per electorate being almost exactly seven, compared with 6.6 in 2016. However, there are fewer Senate nominations, presumably because a half-Senate election offers small players less prospect for success than a double dissolution.
To my eye, the two points worth noting about the ballot paper draws is that the Liberals and One Nation have both enjoyed good fortune in the Senate (I don’t think the fabled “donkey vote” in the House of Representatives worth dwelling on, as it really doesn’t amount to very much). The Liberals (taken to include the Liberal National Party in Queensland) has drawn a more leftward column than the Liberal Democrats in all six states, reducing their chances of voters confusing the two. One Nation have drawn second column in Queensland and the first column in Western Australia, although the advantage in the former case is diminished by the fact that the United Australia Party, who would seem to me to be fighting over the same turf, are right next to them in the third column.
Over the fold are presentations of House of Representatives candidate numbers for each party; the number of groups and candidates in the Senate; and how they have changed from 2016.
House of Representatives nominations
Senate nominations
Echo.net claim Michelle Landry facebook suggests time to cull the Greens.
About 1000.
Referred to Australian Federal Police
PHON, UAP may get senators in. And then most likely, in pretty short order go completely tits up and fragment. Not a good situation in terms of good governance and policy. But, I reckon the ALP is probably in a better position to manage stuff through a Senate like that.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/04/25/not-something-be-flaunted-praised-or-politicized-franklin-graham-blasts-buttigieg-being-gay/?utm_term=.fe455468027b
And there you have it, evangelicals in a nutshell. It’s okay to throw your support behind a multi-divorced womaniser with 5 children to 3 different women, who openly flaunts his ability to sexually assault women, and brags about having separating kids from their parents, even caging them. But admit you’re gay? No go zone according to these supposed crusaders of moral rectitude. Is it any wonder the largest growing religious demographic in the US is ‘no religion’ and ‘atheists’?
Well, here’s the reason Clive is running.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-26/clive-palmer-seeks-approval-for-monster-mine-near-adani/9698680
Biden leading Trump 42-34.
Instant frontrunner. (Leading Sanders by average of 7 in twelve tracking polls)
https://morningconsult.com/2019/04/24/joe-biden-is-the-front-runner-over-democrats-and-donald-trump/
I don’t think he will be the nominee, but you never can tell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RoDPPgWbfXY
ICanCU says:
Thursday, April 25, 2019 at 8:32 pm
It would be interesting to know how many of Palmers candidates live in their electorates. He seemed to round up his merry band quickly.
In 2013 in the seat of Wannon in South West Victoria there was a Palmer United candidate who lived in Qld. Got around 4-5 % from memory despite spending hardly anytime in the electorate.
The Alpha proposal has been around for years and is actually one of the reasons he fell out with the LNP back in 2012. He wanted the rail line funded by taxpayers.
In order to get a Senator at this election, the Quota is 14.3%. There is no way PHON and UAP will get one each in any state. Throwing in Fraser Anning’s Fascists, Cory’s Conservatives and Katter’s Nutters, Queensland final seat will be interesting. Lots of Voters and going to fail to preference all these parties.
Also Hinch is likely to be in the mix in Victoria and Lambie in Tasmania. Other than that it will probably split 3/2/1 or 3/3 in the other states.
BK if you are there – noted you starring on ABC (SA) News tonight.
Rocket:
I don’t think Biden will be the nominee either, but as you say it’s early days and anything can happen over the next 12 months.
@Mr Ed, link please.
Are both polls coming out tomorrow?
52/48 for both
taylormade @ #706 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 9:41 pm
Weren’t a lot of them sourced from the management of his businesses as well?
taylormade: The Wannon PuP candidate has actually been in the electorate already this time, photo in the local paper.
Could see Coalition and ALP with 2 senate seats each out of 6 in each state.
Then 1 Green and 1 of PHON/UAP (or Hinch in Vic and Lambe in Tas and central alliance in SA).
So Costello’s 9 Network has access to internal polling
The question to be asked is who in the Victorian Division of the Liberal Party associates with Costello?
In fact, within the Victorian Division of the Liberal Party who speaks to who – because they all have their faction of 1 (being themselves – unless you include their egos as a seperate entity in which case factions of 2 and someone to talk to)?
The hatred is palpable
Biden is possibly the dems best chance against Trump.
He should pick a much younger running mate, possibly female if he does get the nomination.
Just wondering how the Palmer candidate concept can be considered to be any kind of fair democratic representation when his employees are nominated for electorates they have never even set foot in.
Another serious flaw in the failing democracy model we must tolerate.
Yes Mr Ed
Greens supporting the demands of traditional owners saying no to coal or CSG in the Galilee has some declaring the need for a social cleansing.
Pity that both Labor and all the right wing nut jobs are working to destroy the rights and demands of traditional owners. Who oppose any fossil fuel exploitation on their traditional lands.
Before anyone even raises the impending climate concerns of bringing all that fossil carbon to the atmosphere.
The many infantile and puerile comments here barely seem different often. In this thread alone there’s been speculations on how some sort of electoral reform to establish in effect one party dictatorships is required for Labor or any future government to deliver us from disaster.
Guytaur I would expect serious action on climate is somewhere Greens and Labor would have common cause.
Though I doubt many with any understanding of the possible circumstances, would believe that Labor gives much of a shit on that issue now, if they think mediocrity, new coal and gas on Aboriginal lands is any sort of answer now.
Indeed, based on what has been said by Bill, it seems new coal and CSG could be developed faster and more under Labor than the LNP.
Maybe this was commented on earlier, but I am late to many things and just now noticed in the table at the top of this thread that the Coalition are fielding 161 candidates in 151 electorates. So in 10 electorates there must be two competing coalition candidates. Or I suppose it could mean that situation exists in 9 electorates and in another one there are 3 coalition candidates, and so on.
So I’m curious. Which electorates have more than one coalition candidate? I thought they didn’t do that.
Humongous poster of Abbott with his head 1/2 submerged on the side of building in Cremorne which used to house the Dancetyria nightclub where I used to bust a move or two in the late 80s.
Late Riser @ #720 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 10:20 pm
One Lib, one National Party. e.g. Gilmore, Indi
Late Riser
When there is no incumbent Coalition member they can both stand candidates.
Indi and Gilmore are two such seats where it is happening.
I believe that the Nats WA which are not as aligned as the other Nats are standing against the Libs in Durack and O’Connor
Now that Palmer has buddied-up with ScoMo, expect less harsh treatment from News Corp towards UAP.
On the other hand, UAP is a force of nature, chaotic nature. Even Palmer will not be able to control the rag-tag rabble of malcontents, losers and halfwits he has cobbled together from the rear entrance of the Matt Talbot hostel.
He’s obviously told his candidates to STFU until after the election, but one or more is sure to crack before then.
What idiot signed UAP up as stooges for the LNP? Or are they THAT desperate?
Whatever, this preference alliance feels like a mistake to me.
EGW, IoM. Hmm. Makes sense I suppose. Might be electorates to watch on the night. Thanks!
Shellbell
Is it an anti Abbott poster?
IoM
Yes saying something about his performance on climate over 25 years
O’Connor, Durack and Pearce for starters.
It’s worth checking out this evening’s Adelaide ABC TV News on ABC iview
Seats with both Lib & Nat candidates:
NSW: Eden-Monaro, Gilmore
VIC: Indi, Mallee
SA: Barker
WA: Durack, Pearce, O’Connor
Tas: Bass, Braddon, Lyons
Total = 11
Some initial observations from a Never Trumper who wants the Dems to defeat Trump next year re Biden entering the race.
Is Palmer paying people to stand as UAP candidates do you think? illegal i know, but it would be easy to get away with.
Even though my QLD electorate of Ryan has always been very blue leaning, it will be interesting to see if the dumping of Jane Prentice and the now 7 candidates including palmer , gun nation and greens can drop the LNP primary below 50% and cause preferences to be considered. Could be more interesting than usual..
I must say thank you to William for the amazing electorate guide..
From Lee-Lin Chin, so very true:
“Using everyone else’s tax dollars to refund people who make shitty investment decisions, whilst artificially inflating property prices.”
Negative Gearing.
Confessions @ #540 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 10:35 pm
Thanks. I’m making a list. 🙂
ICanCU @ #544 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 10:52 pm
Yes. And with the boundary moving even more so.
Observer says:
Thursday, April 25, 2019 at 10:10 pm
So Costello’s 9 Network has access to internal polling
The question to be asked is who in the Victorian Division of the Liberal Party associates with Costello?
In fact, within the Victorian Division of the Liberal Party who speaks to who – because they all have their faction of 1 (being themselves – unless you include their egos as a seperate entity in which case factions of 2 and someone to talk to)?
The hatred is palpable
—————-
I doubt Nine has any “access” to internal polling beyond what gets selectively “leaked” to it. In any case, I suspect it was a throwaway line based on reports elsewhere. Not worth the paper it’s written on.
Was that BK talking about copper wire?
a r:
Don’t ask “Duke” confusing questions. “Duke” will have to call the higher-ups to get you an answer
Speaking of the Daily TellMeCrap and marriage equality. The negative vote was concentrated in specific parts of Sydney. Was this just cultural/ethnic/religious in origin, or did it have any correlation with Daily TellMeCrap readership?
Just wondering.
Most days I have to take my OH to various rehab facilities and wait to take her home or to the next rehab. I usually fill in the waiting time by going to a club nearby and reading while I sip a coffee.
At this club there are always about 6 or more copies of the Telegraph and 3 or more copies of the Australian as well as 2 copies of the local Canberra Times.
One day I asked the manageress of the club why the overloading of Murdoch papers and she laughingly told me that some bloke delivered them free of charge every morning, otherwise they wouldn’t be there.
My observations of the last several months is that most people do what I do, read the sports pages and then skim through the rest. There is usually absolutely nothing of interest to read.
It’s odd that you can’t read a Newscrap article online without a subscription, but you can read their whole newspapers for free all over the place.
An AEU poll in Boothby indicates high levels of support for better funding of public schools.
http://www.aeufederal.org.au/news-media/media-releases/boothby-voters-arent-fooled-nicolle-flints-advertising-about-public-school-funding.
There was also a similar poll in Pearce.
http://www.aeufederal.org.au/news-media/media-releases/voters-pearce-prefer-public-school-investment-over-tax-cuts-wealthy
PT
On access to Newscrap. It doesn’t make sense if you think you are the customer. You are the product that gets sold to advertisers.
In the ‘He’s no Bob Hawke’ video, for some reason Scomo reaches across a seated lady to shake hands with a suited man. Does not acknowledge the lady seated. It is as if she wasn’t there. Has she followed his church dress code so well that she has become camouflaged, and is now invisible to the current PM?
https://mobile.twitter.com/SquigglyRick/status/1121234739417862144
I’m staying out of all polling prediction to gives youse all a clearer shot….
“Watson Watch says:
Thursday, April 25, 2019 at 10:42 pm
Seats with both Lib & Nat candidates:
NSW: Eden-Monaro, Gilmore
VIC: Indi, Mallee
SA: Barker
WA: Durack, Pearce, O’Connor
Tas: Bass, Braddon, Lyons
Total = 11”
The Nationals in SA are not part of the coalition. I think that this is true for WA as well.
In SA they are a small and weak party, and they didn’t even stand a candidate in the state election.
The last time they had a (state) MP, she supported the Labor government.
New thread.
.
Anythony Galloway:
Eastern Australia Irrigation shared the same Cayman Islands address as dozens of other companies, including two companies which have been designated by the US as proliferators of weapons of mass destruction heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/… #ausvotes @theheraldsun
Eastern Australia Irrigation shared the same Cayman Islands address as dozens of other companies, including two companies which have been designated by the US as proliferators of weapons of mass destruction heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/… #ausvotes @theheraldsun
Mark Di Steffano:
Here’s the BuzzFeed News video showing UKIP’s star candidate Carl Benjamin – known as Sargon of Akkad – repeatedly using racial slurs in YouTube videos: