Yesterday was the day on which candidate nominations declared and ballot paper draws conducted. The electorate pages in the Poll Bludger election guide now feature full lists of candidates in ballot paper order, though the job is still half finished for the Senate guide. House of Representatives nominations are up, with the average number per electorate being almost exactly seven, compared with 6.6 in 2016. However, there are fewer Senate nominations, presumably because a half-Senate election offers small players less prospect for success than a double dissolution.
To my eye, the two points worth noting about the ballot paper draws is that the Liberals and One Nation have both enjoyed good fortune in the Senate (I don’t think the fabled “donkey vote” in the House of Representatives worth dwelling on, as it really doesn’t amount to very much). The Liberals (taken to include the Liberal National Party in Queensland) has drawn a more leftward column than the Liberal Democrats in all six states, reducing their chances of voters confusing the two. One Nation have drawn second column in Queensland and the first column in Western Australia, although the advantage in the former case is diminished by the fact that the United Australia Party, who would seem to me to be fighting over the same turf, are right next to them in the third column.
Over the fold are presentations of House of Representatives candidate numbers for each party; the number of groups and candidates in the Senate; and how they have changed from 2016.
a r says:
Thursday, April 25, 2019 at 8:43 pm
…
Propagandistic media commentary from all sources/sides, virtually all of it anti-Shorten/anti-Labor.
So you think Murdoch is still good for 2%? We will see.
52/48 for both. Labor in front of course.
a r
The Murdoch press and a lot of other media hasn’t just started being anti-Labor and Shorten mate. They’ve been like it for years.
Honestly think one of Labor’s biggest asset is the constant way it’s opponents (and some of its supporters) underestimate him. He’s a very clever operator.
If a member of the Australian Taxpayer Alliance arranges their financial affairs so ‘well’ that they no longer pay tax, do they have to leave the organisation?
frednk @ #640 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 8:37 pm
You give me hope that his dynasty won’t take an interest in us quite so personally.
– – What do people think has happened in the past fortnight to suggest the polls will move back to 50:50 or 51:49? Seriously. What? – –
Burgey you’ve been living underground, eating from a can
running away from what you dont understand.
Its alright.
Polls move in mysterious ways.
While I do not believe Newspoll would narrow that much, it has happened before. However some things are worth noting:
– the election has now been called, and is therefore an actual date in people’s minds, not just some far away unknown time in the future.
– presumably when pollsters survey voters they will be using this actual date, not a bland ‘next election’ phrase as has been the standard until now.
– people are tuned out because it’s public and school holidays. The omnishambles the coalition has endured the past fortnight may not be penetrating people’s awareness.
Murdoch gives away more copies of the DT than he sells ( to prop up advertising circulation) & The Guardians digital circulation is larger which would indicate his influences has well & truely passed.
He shouts but no one listens
Victoria @ #666 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 6:44 pm
Jeez he probably just wants a weekend at home after having been on the road for the past couple weeks.
I’m much more interested in seeing how Morrison campaigns in Victoria. I reckon that will speak greater volumes than Shorten being there.
HughB @ #641 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 8:35 pm
That’s worth a tweet. 😆
Yeah, I know I said this about Tony Abbott, but ScoMo has so many balls in the air at the moment, some of them have GOT to come tumbling down eventually. The question is whether “Eventually” means “Before the election.”
(Eventually I was right about Abbott)
According to ScoMo, Shorten is going to force sex change operations, reintroduce Death Duties, take away your weekend, abolish the ute, rob all retirees of their hard-earned money, loot superannuation savings, increase all taxes, impoverish average wage earners on $250,000, spend eleventy-twelvety billion on saving lesbian tree-hugging socialist disabled whales from harmless invisible carbon dioxide, introduce sharia law, make homosexuality compulsory and appoint the CFMMEU jointly as Governor General with Julia Gillard as the Queen Of Australia.
It’s going to get REALLY STUPID sooner or later. With Lachie helming News Corp and Adman ScoMo driving the Coalition Bulkshit Bus, how long can it be before train meets wreck?
Steve777 says:
Thursday, April 25, 2019 at 8:48 pm
Nah, they get anointed and their portrait get hung in the Sacred Hall of Freeloading Bastards.
“What do people think has happened in the past fortnight to suggest the polls will move back to 50:50 or 51:49? Seriously. What?”
Media noise, media bias, media pushing and amplifying “Liberal” lies. It doesn’t change many minds but it doesn’t have to. A percentage point at the margins might be enough. As I said, how’s would a disengaged voter getting all their info from the mainstream media, possibly via social media feeds, decide to vote?
Rupert obviously thinks it works.
antonbruckner11 @ #651 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 8:46 pm
Or we are going after seats like Menzies and Aston!
Simon K
So did I.
As someone put it a couple of weeks ago, Labor hasn’t opened the lolly jar yet. They have a huge war chest, most of which hasn’t been spent yet. So before we get too gloomy about their chances let’s wait and see what they are going to spend all that moola on. I’m tipping there are going to be one or two big surprises.
With Easter and Anzac day now out of the way, I reckon the distribution of the largesse will probably start first thing next week.
The reality is that elections are decided months before. Campaigns only dance around the edges. Howard got a gift in 2004, Abbott did in 2010… otherwise, the results are consistent with the general patterns witnessed in advance.
All the most recent elections show us this.
Steve777 says:
Thursday, April 25, 2019 at 8:55 pm
…..
Rupert obviously thinks it works.
That really is what we are guessing; Ruport’s remaining influence. I wonder if News Poll’s methodology is about to get another tweak. To allow for Palmer of cause.
Confessions @ #1735 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 8:43 pm
Purdue Pharma, of oxycontin infamy, have a significant stake in the American parent organisations like the Cato Institute, of which the ATA is a franchise.
“The reality is that elections are decided months before. Campaigns only dance around the edges. “
True, but 1 or 2% at the edges can make all the difference.
Uncle Joe confirms his candidacy:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/former-us-vice-president-joe-biden-launches-2020-presidential-campaign-20190425-p51hc7.html
From the horse’s mouth…
Michael Kroger: Morrison and Frydenberg have both done a terrific job, Bowen has been solid and Shorten has made a couple of errors.
Does that affect the vote? Whilst the Coalition may be winning the campaign, it may not shift the vote.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1121367837627437056/video/1
I’m with Burgey. I don’t think Rupe has changed one single vote since this election started. If he didn’t change votes with the dial on “10” he won’t change them with the dial at “11”. His papers just look ridiculous. The libs have also taken some pretty big hits, like Watergate. That must have had an impact.
Dastyari said on television that he has seen Labor’s internals and labor is definitely going to win. He said this election is over. You can disbelieve him if you want, but I don’t think he’s a liar.
My biggest worry is that newspoll will toss the libs one or two percentage points and you will all have heart attacks.
rhwombat:
Well there you go, always follow the money.
Who the fuck do you think set up the Labor Party Rex?
Now answer the fucking question. In what way do these specific unions you named influence Labor policy? I want you to talk about actual policy detail. And I want you to tell us where that is a bad thing.
sprocket_ @ #673 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 9:03 pm
What Kroger is really saying is: I’ve seen our internals and they are pitiful. If Kroger isn’t talking up a lib win they are really sunk.
sprocket_ @ #1760 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 9:03 pm
That’s not his mouth…
Hanson’s standing by her man:
https://www.9news.com.au/national/one-nation-candidate-stuart-bonds-under-fire-over-derogatory-comments-women-gay-people-youtube-video/fcfa8ade-4443-413c-917a-4f7dd06e1150?ref=BP_RSS_ninenews_0__the-only-thing-worse-than-a-gay-person-with-power-is-a-woman_250419
antonbruckner11 says:
….
My biggest worry is that newspoll will toss the libs one or two percentage points and you will all have heart attacks.
51% poll bludger will have to be avoided for a news poll cycle. 54%, you could be unkind and go to Menzie house or where ever they hang out and stir the pot.
Christ, there is futility and then there is arguing with Rex. Please give it a rest.
rhwombat.
LAUGHED!
Stephen Conroy’s take on the campaigns so far, and if the expected result has changed…
https://mobile.twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1121364944702754821/video/1
– – Uncle Joe confirms his candidacy: – –
It might be whiskey talking but… as long as Trump makes it to the next election, Biden will be the next POTUS.
You heard it here first peeps!
And if it doesnt pan out that way… you didnt hear it from me.
Caught a UAP add tonight, still slinging off equally at Liberal, National and Labor. It will be interesting to see if the lib/nat slinging will now become more subdued.
Duke Clyde
One Nation candidate: ‘The only thing worse than a gay person with power is a woman’
https://www.9news.com.au/national/one-nation-candidate-stuart-bonds-under-fire-over-derogatory-comments-women-gay-people-youtube-video/fcfa8ade-4443-413c-917a-4f7dd06e1150
. . . .
Frednk – Yeah, I feel a Newspoll tweak is on its way!
UAP and Greens have the same message; same/same. I wonder if the Greens have a copyright.
Conroy saying no. 53 is looking good.
SK:
“Heads I win, tails you lose”.
Love it! 😆
frednk, That’s a good point. I’ll adjust my expectations. UAP won’t mute anything.
Ruperts Daily Telegraph stance on same sex marriage was an indicator of how of touch he is & how little influence he had.
Time has made that stance even less relevant today, there are more younger & progressive voters now than then.
Landslide to Labor
That’s out of character for Kroger. He usually sticks with the Liberals through thick and thin with his predictions. Perhaps he doesn’t feel so constrained since he gave up the Victorian state presidency of the Liberal party.
Any woman? Or only a woman with power?
Zoidlord says:
Thursday, April 25, 2019 at 9:14 pm
He’d relate well to the Party’s leadership then! 😆
The era of the tearaway tabloid ‘wot won it’, is over.
Murdoch hangs with the top 1% and only supports the big business end of town. His sole aim is to help those in that catagory install right wing Govts that help them gather more wealth.
Whether a Corporate can get subsidies or tax breaks doesn’t matter. It adds to their wealth. His meddling has helped elect the likes of Trump, create the chaos of Brexit and on and on.
Our Nation has enough wealth to be of interest to a Murdoch empire that has been meddling in our affairs for over 100 years.
Would be interesting to see the tax contribution from him, his family and his companies. A professional leaner and No1 friend of the LNP.
@A R
Women of power.
I’m guessing he hates his wife.
Zoidlord @ #695 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 9:25 pm
And as Barney pointed out, his boss.
Barney in Da Lat @ #693 Thursday, April 25th, 2019 – 9:22 pm
James is a bloke though, unless you’re referring to the useful idiot.
Pauleeen’s masterplan is to make as many stupid statements as possible to ensure her supporters don’t forget her name before the election as they have such a short attention span.