Election minus three-and-a-half weeks

It’s been a slow start to the federal election campaign so far as polling is concerned, but there are a few dribs and drabs around the place if you look hard enough.

First, I invite you to bask in the eye-wateringly detailed feast of psephological goodness that is my Senate election guide, subject of the post immediately below this one. Second, I understand we may yet see results from an Essential Research poll conducted over the weekend, but apparently not quite yet. Third, we reach an important milestone in the campaign today with the declaration of candidates and ballot papers draws, nominations having closed yesterday.

With all that out of the way, I offer the following assembly of polling snippets and horse race prognostication, in keeping with my performance indicator of having at least one new post up on every day of the campaign, except maybe on Saturdays.

• The unpredictable Roy Morgan has released the results of its weekend face-to-face polling – probably a more fraught exercise than usual over Easter – which finds Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 39%, Labor 35.5%, Greens 9.5%, One Nation 4.5% and, contrary to its strong showing in the marginal seat Newspolls published yesterday, United Australia Party 2.0%. The published release compares with those of “the prior surveying period of April 6/7 & 13/14, 2019”, though the last results it actually published covered only the first half of that period. Either way, the result in the earlier poll was 52.5-47.5 to Labor. The sample of this latest poll was a rather modest 707.

• Roy Morgan also appears to be doing separate polling for the Australian Futures Project which I must find out more about, since all I can tell you is that News Corp’s Annika Smedhurst has published results from it on two successive Sundays. I didn’t bother with its findings last week because they related only to issue salience and didn’t show up anything you couldn’t have guessed, and the most recent results have only just come to my attention. These do actually cover voting intention, and record a 52-48 lead to Labor on two-party preferred. Beyond that though, there are no primary votes and nothing on sample size or survey methodology, with other details in the report relating only to the undecided rate. I can’t find the report online, but Smedhurst has posted an image of it on Twitter.

• Polling conducted by the Liberals for Telereach in the the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, and published by local newspaper the Burnie Advocate, finds Scott Morrison with a 44% approval rating and 43% disapproval rating in the electorate, whereas Bill Shorten has 31% approval and 59% disapproval. Though perhaps the past tense would be more appropriate – the poll was conducted on April 3, from a sample of 626. Some may ask why the Liberals would provide data on leadership ratings but not voting intention. I do not know the answer.

• Journalists continue to receive wildly different impressions of the situation in Victoria depending on whom they talk to. The Financial Review yesterday reported Scott Morrison was starting to find favour among “blue-collar and outer-suburban voters”, turning around what was a “horrendous” situation two months ago, with Labor consistently around 7% ahead statewide. They still expect to lose Chisholm and Dunkley, but believe they may hold not just La Trobe but also Corangamite, albeit that skepticism was expressed about the 54-46 result in the Geelong Advertiser’s ReachTEL poll. The obverse of this would seem to be that things remain radically bad for the Liberals nearer the city, to the extent that they are only “narrowly ahead” in Kooyong and Higgins.

• On the ABC’s Insiders on Sunday, Patricia Karvelas said she had spoken to Nationals who believed George Christensen was “gone” in Dawson, while fellow panellist Andrew Probyn said both sides did not know what to expect given the wild card of preferences from One Nation, who did not field a candidate in 2016 and are now expected to poll up to 20%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

855 comments on “Election minus three-and-a-half weeks”

Comments Page 15 of 18
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  4. A poll released by Liberal Party, commissioned by the Liberal Party, for the sole purpose of boosting the Liberal Party has bad things to say about Bill Shorten?

    What are the odds!

  5. A leaked internal poll from Engadine Maccas shows PM Scott Poopypants of Nazareth has a negative approval rating of minus 231%,
    Glorious Labor will win 141 seats and Bill Shorten will be crowned Emperor of the Australians.
    Barney Joyce will be found guilty of Treason by a CFMEU tribunal and sentenced to exile on Saint Helena.
    Adam Bandt will be the only Liberal left in Victoria.

  6. BB “Bill is the classic Bad Boy, straight out of Married At First Sight.

    Which is produced by the same people, more or less, as produce television news.”

    It is “interesting” to note the number of “news” articles are generated by “Married at First Sight”. The landing page of the Sydney Morning Herald seems to include at least one article most days.

  9. Simon² Katich® says:
    Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 9:23 pm
    I agree the PPM is mostly meaningless.
    The net satisfaction rating however matters. How much a consistent long term trend of -20 net sat for an opposition leader matters heading into the campaign proper is up for debate.

    ***********

    If you think PPM or netsat matters then I give you Hawke, Keating, Howard, Rudd, Gillard, Abbott and Turnbull. Those two metrics never helped or hindered when it mattered.

  10. UPDATED: TV BLACKBOX can exclusively reveal Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition leader Bill Shorten will meet in the first of a series of televised debates this election campaign in Perth on Monday night 29 April, televised nationally on 7TWO.

    The 7 News Leader’s Debate will be hosted by Weekend Sunrise host Basil Zempilas, and moderated by 7NEWS political editor Mark Riley and The West Australian’s Lanai Scarr,

    In a Seven Network exclusive, both leaders will face off for the first time in front of a live audience.

    In what is being described as a “Town Hall” style meeting, it will be the first chance for voters to submit questions to both men aspiring to be the next Prime Minister of Australia in what has been branded the “climate election”.

    Interest is sure to be huge as the Australian Electoral Commission reports a record 96.8% of eligible Australians are enrolled to vote in the 2019 election.

    The 7NEWS: Leaders’ Debate airs LIVE Monday on 7TWO and 7Plus

    Sydney – LIVE at 7pm on 7TWO
    Melbourne – LIVE at 7pm on 7TWO
    Brisbane – LIVE at 7pm on 7TWO
    Adelaide – LIVE at 6:30pm on 7TWO
    Perth – LIVE at 5pm on 7TWO

  11. Ven @ #698 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 9:24 pm

    A lot of them affluent and all them are muslims terrorists.

    There, I fixed it for you. They were effective terrorists, and shitty Muslims. Just like the Christchurch guy was an effective terrorist and a shitty Christian.

    You can’t tar a religion just because some terrorists claim affiliation with it. Or if you want to go down that route, then you have to tar basically every mainstream religion exactly the same. Except maybe Buddhism. Has a terrorist ever claimed to be Buddhist?

  12. Ven @ #699 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 9:24 pm

    Guys please read about Sri Lankan suicide bombers. A lot of them affluent and all them are muslims. You will be stunned.

    https://www.opindia.com/2019/04/sri-lankan-millionaires-family-was-an-isis-cell-the-suicide-bombers-shatter-the-shameless-excuses-peddled-by-liberals-to-justify-islamic-terrorism/

    The writer clearly has an agenda to demonise Muslims generally and to associate Islamist extremism with the political left.

    The true source of it is well known – Saudi Arabia.

  15. The Far Right drew the top four positions on the Queensland Senate ballot: 1. Rise Up Australia, genuine extremists. 2. One Nation, enough said. 3. Palmer. 4. LNP.

  18. a r @ #711 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 9:38 pm

    Ven @ #698 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 9:24 pm

    A lot of them affluent and all them are muslims terrorists.

    There, I fixed it for you. They were effective terrorists, and shitty Muslims. Just like the Christchurch guy was an effective terrorist and a shitty Christian.

    You can’t tar a religion just because some terrorists claim affiliation with it. Or if you want to go down that route, then you have to tar basically every mainstream religion exactly the same. Except maybe Buddhism. Has a terrorist ever claimed to be Buddhist?

    Have a look at Myanmar and what Buddhists are getting up to there. The victims? Muslims.

  22. What I’m hearing everywhere is that ScoMo is like a shonky used car salesman, and has a smug shit-eating grin that irritates everyone because he looks like a smartarse. And he never answers questions, because he’s covering up for all the crooks on his front bench.

    It was on radio and all my work mates said the same.

    Are you hearing this too? I bet you are.

    This is why he’s losing – oh and no one can work out why he’s even PM since it was that other bloke

    I hear this sort of thing everywhere pass it on

  23. The 7 News Leader’s Debate will be hosted by Weekend Sunrise host Basil Zempilas, and moderated by 7NEWS political editor Mark Riley and The West Australian’s Lanai Scarr,

    Oh for the days when our leaders debates were regarded as serious affairs and were hosted by legitimate political affairs reporters.

  24. Well, looks set to be one, very, very interesting election. Admittedly it has been a while. Melbourne and Queensland and a few seats in WA the only interesting ones to watch but, as usual, the TPP is unlikely to tell us much until that most important of polls…

  26. ar
    They aren’t shitty Muslims. They have a literal interpretation of the Muslim scriptures of jihad and heaven. They are shitty humans.

  27. I don’t think Bill will accepting any SkyFoxNews stitch up at Rooty Hill

    You would think the ABC would be hosting the debates

  31. Just had a look at some material from my ALP candidate and recalled some other material that has appeared.
    Some items don’t include Bill Shorten and some do.
    No-one has said a thing. What’s the big deal in WA?

  32. Market Forces: https://www.marketforces.org.au/alp-gas-handout/

    Take action – Tell Labor to keep public money out of carbon bombs!

    The ALP has just announced plans to allocate $1.5 billion – of our taxpayer dollars – to projects that would open up the Galilee and Bowen basins and the massive Beetaloo Basin in the Northern Territory.

    The climate impacts of mining these basins for gas are enormous, far beyond the damage that even the Adani Carmichael mine would do. According to Tim Forcey, Energy Advisor at the University of Melbourne, Northern Territory shale oil and gas is one of Australia’s largest potential sources of greenhouse gas emissions, with a greenhouse gas potential 4 to 7 times larger than Adani’s coal mine.
    :::
    Companies like Santos and Origin Energy (some of the country’s biggest political donors) will be licking their lips at having taxpayers open up new, unsustainable gas fields.

    We need to head this off now. Please send an urgent message to the key ALP decision-makers that no credible climate policy includes throwing public money at more unburnable fossil fuels.

  33. Pegasus @ #732 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 9:57 pm

    Market Forces: https://www.marketforces.org.au/alp-gas-handout/

    Take action – Tell Labor to keep public money out of carbon bombs!

    The ALP has just announced plans to allocate $1.5 billion – of our taxpayer dollars – to projects that would open up the Galilee and Bowen basins and the massive Beetaloo Basin in the Northern Territory.

    The climate impacts of mining these basins for gas are enormous, far beyond the damage that even the Adani Carmichael mine would do. According to Tim Forcey, Energy Advisor at the University of Melbourne, Northern Territory shale oil and gas is one of Australia’s largest potential sources of greenhouse gas emissions, with a greenhouse gas potential 4 to 7 times larger than Adani’s coal mine.
    :::
    Companies like Santos and Origin Energy (some of the country’s biggest political donors) will be licking their lips at having taxpayers open up new, unsustainable gas fields.

    We need to head this off now. Please send an urgent message to the key ALP decision-makers that no credible climate policy includes throwing public money at more unburnable fossil fuels.

    Awww but Peg, I thought all we had to do was stop Adani and we would all be saved.
    Do you mean its a bit more complicated than that?

  34. WayOutWest says:
    Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 9:47 pm
    In reply to Grimace, unlikely to be able to do Saturday but in Alkimos on Sunday.

    **************

    Alkimos is a bit too far up for me and Mrs Grimace’s tolerance limit is one campaign event per weekend. Mrs Grimace did indulge me a few weeks ago and I did some door knocking in Yanchep.

    That was the day I concluded that Pearce was all over bar the shouting.

  35. “Like Morrison has a literal interpretation of such matters in a Christian context?”
    Morrison and Shorten don’t have a literal interpretation of Christian texts. They pick and choose the bits they like.

  36. Lock the Gate Alliance – Bill’s fracking farce fuels public protest

    https://www.lockthegate.org.au/bill_s_fracking_farce_fuels_public_protest

    The announcement by Bill Shorten on Tuesday has been met with outrage by concerned landholders and communities across the nation, due to fears a supercharged fracking industry in Australia would create a massive carbon footprint, and cause irreversible damage to the environment.

    Gasfield Free Northern Rivers welcomed Mr Deegan’s statement to protesters that he did not agree with the ALP policy to spend public money on new fracking gasfields
    :::
    “Encouraging unconventional gasfields would detonate a carbon bomb and stop Australia meeting its carbon targets.

    “It flies in the face of the latest science from the IPCC which found that global warming must be limited to 1.5 degrees and there should be no new fossil fuel basins developed.

    “The funds from Labor are designed to frack open the Beetaloo Basin in the Northern Territory which is one of the largest untapped shale gas basins in the world.

    “Labor’s fracking push completely undermines their promises to act on climate change and will stop us meeting our climate targets, putting Australians at risk of more extreme weather and threatening our livelihoods.

    “At a time when even the World Bank has called for an end to fossil fuel subsidies it beggars belief that Federal Labor are going to bankroll the gas fracking industry with public funds.

    “This money should be spent on building a positive, renewable future for Australia, and Federal Labor should heed community opposition and reallocate the funds to support our manufacturers to switch from dirty, polluting gas to renewables.

    “We stand with communities in Queensland and Northern Territory who have called for governments to ban fracking, particularly with remote Indigenous communities who have said they don’t want fracking on their country.”

  37. Those outside of WA may not know who Basil Zempilas is, but he used to (still may for that matter), read the Ch7 news report on its 6pm news.

    Now he’s co-hosting federal election leader debates.

  38. The Murdoch sewer organ, The Daily ToiletPaper has been beating up ANZAC Day and demanding a ‘cessation of hostilities’ between the parties.

    So what do these low as shark shit turd burglers put on the front page tomorrow?

    ALP going to take your children’s gender of them!

  41. Diogenes @ #735 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 10:01 pm

    “Like Morrison has a literal interpretation of such matters in a Christian context?”
    Morrison and Shorten don’t have a literal interpretation of Christian texts. They pick and choose the bits they like.

    You have obviously not read any of the articles linked to here which describe what Morrison’s Church believe.

  42. Grimace, I was in Yanchep too. Yanchep has changed immensely in the past few years. The local state MP has delivered time and time again and that will help Labor considerably.

    Labor will always have a tough battle with so many vested interests against it on the right, but my inexperienced view from the doors is either people are very good at deception or the polls are underestimating the level of anger at the Coalition.

    I would also add that the national focus on this slip or that error are sailing over the heads of most people. Minds are made up.

    This presidential style focus on the leaders comes from people on the campaign bus or in the gallery who haven’t talked to an ordinary voter for years, if ever.

  43. “Shorten is another Michael Daley and Morrison will expose Shorten in the televised debates just like Gladys did with Daley.”

    Right up to the point that Daley shot himself in the head in the last 10 minutes out at Penriff Gladys’s debate performances were the worst I’ve ever seen in over 30 years. If Gladys is ScoMo’s benchmark, he’s stuffed.

  44. Diogenes @ #735 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 10:01 pm

    “Like Morrison has a literal interpretation of such matters in a Christian context?”
    Morrison and Shorten don’t have a literal interpretation of Christian texts. They pick and choose the bits they like.

    Try this https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/february/1548939600/james-boyce/devil-and-scott-morrison
    And this https://www.smh.com.au/national/inside-our-pentecostal-pm-s-church-20190416-p51ekx.html
    Shorten follows a fairly bland mainstream version.

  45. If you think PPM or netsat matters then I give you Hawke, Keating, Howard, Rudd, Gillard, Abbott and Turnbull. Those two metrics never helped or hindered when it mattered.

    Dunno about that. I reckon Hawkes popularity helped him win big in 83. Rudds popularity helped him in 2007. Abbotts was up and down leading into the election but finished at -5 (while Rudds was either -10 or -25).

    Gillard had a generally positive net sat going into 2010. That helped her deal with the leadership change issue.

    What can be taken from the historical context is that Abbott in 2013 was deeply unpopular for a short while yet that climbed a few months out from the election. However, in the longer term his popularity was up and down prior to that election. Shorten has been stuck between -25 to -15 for some time now.

    It is all moot. Shorten is the man. And was always going to be as the ALP werent going to change leadership and to be honest I doubt a leadership change would have helped anyways.

  47. Cud Chewer @ #580 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 6:44 pm

    Pegasus do you concede that the reality of getting elected in this country means that you are actually constrained against running entirely “correct” policies? That its necessary to start with promises that aren’t going to get you ridiculed and that the best way for Labor to act is to under-promise and over-deliver?

    Cud, I usually enjoy your more erudite contributions, but this seems like just utter BS.
    Is that “correct” for the country and the planet, or “correct” for whatever dream future you and other Labor partisans hold in your head today?
    Or is it just as it so often appears here that ‘correct’ is entirely based on whether there is a vacuous unquestioning adherence to the Labor partisans here or not.

    Under promise and over deliver? I didn’t realise you had started a sideline in comedy.

    Personally I feel if Labor loses, it will be in part due to the capitulation on climate change and pandering to complete nutjobs like Barnaby, letting them get away with astounding incompetence or blatant mercenary corruption. Because you don’t want to rock their poor sorry asses for politicisation?

    I mean why bother with Lib-lite Labor, if we’re going to dig up and spread fossil carbon around the planet and let suckholes get away with the mercenary corruption they do. Then many might ask why not just go with the professional bastards in the Libs.

    Politics done by not politicising anything? Ask no questions receive no lies? Auspol really?

    If you can’t be straightforward and honest, answer questions, before any election why would anyone expect anything better afterwards?

    If dishonest bullshit and mediocrity is the modus operandi of Australian politics, then frankly perhaps some of us get the shit governments and events that we deserve. Even if not everyone deserves the shit they have to take.

    Recent Australian politics reflects the shit that is delivered to the most marginal and poorest regularly from newstart to ever growing inequality…

    Frankly what a pack of bastards Labor are for wanting to bring coal seam gas to the NT and N Qld, on indigenous lands. The most marginalised and imprisoned group of people in the developed world. Who have already been fighting for centuries for some recognition and some redress, going as far as drilling a hole in protest in the NT parliament gardens last week to protest the fracking CSG monster potentially eating up their lands.

    Is that why Labor are speculating on Pat Dodson as Indigenous Minister to smother his people in enough propaganda and bullshit to keep them quiet as well? Can’t see the Wangan and Jagalingou wanting Adani or fracking and gas on their lands. See how that will go.
    Does anyone think these people will just roll over for Labor on CSG and fracking, after spending years fighting against Adani? Has anyone actually even considered how pissed these people will be with Labor selling out their land to fracking and CSG?

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