Election minus three-and-a-half weeks

It’s been a slow start to the federal election campaign so far as polling is concerned, but there are a few dribs and drabs around the place if you look hard enough.

First, I invite you to bask in the eye-wateringly detailed feast of psephological goodness that is my Senate election guide, subject of the post immediately below this one. Second, I understand we may yet see results from an Essential Research poll conducted over the weekend, but apparently not quite yet. Third, we reach an important milestone in the campaign today with the declaration of candidates and ballot papers draws, nominations having closed yesterday.

With all that out of the way, I offer the following assembly of polling snippets and horse race prognostication, in keeping with my performance indicator of having at least one new post up on every day of the campaign, except maybe on Saturdays.

• The unpredictable Roy Morgan has released the results of its weekend face-to-face polling – probably a more fraught exercise than usual over Easter – which finds Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 39%, Labor 35.5%, Greens 9.5%, One Nation 4.5% and, contrary to its strong showing in the marginal seat Newspolls published yesterday, United Australia Party 2.0%. The published release compares with those of “the prior surveying period of April 6/7 & 13/14, 2019”, though the last results it actually published covered only the first half of that period. Either way, the result in the earlier poll was 52.5-47.5 to Labor. The sample of this latest poll was a rather modest 707.

• Roy Morgan also appears to be doing separate polling for the Australian Futures Project which I must find out more about, since all I can tell you is that News Corp’s Annika Smedhurst has published results from it on two successive Sundays. I didn’t bother with its findings last week because they related only to issue salience and didn’t show up anything you couldn’t have guessed, and the most recent results have only just come to my attention. These do actually cover voting intention, and record a 52-48 lead to Labor on two-party preferred. Beyond that though, there are no primary votes and nothing on sample size or survey methodology, with other details in the report relating only to the undecided rate. I can’t find the report online, but Smedhurst has posted an image of it on Twitter.

• Polling conducted by the Liberals for Telereach in the the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, and published by local newspaper the Burnie Advocate, finds Scott Morrison with a 44% approval rating and 43% disapproval rating in the electorate, whereas Bill Shorten has 31% approval and 59% disapproval. Though perhaps the past tense would be more appropriate – the poll was conducted on April 3, from a sample of 626. Some may ask why the Liberals would provide data on leadership ratings but not voting intention. I do not know the answer.

• Journalists continue to receive wildly different impressions of the situation in Victoria depending on whom they talk to. The Financial Review yesterday reported Scott Morrison was starting to find favour among “blue-collar and outer-suburban voters”, turning around what was a “horrendous” situation two months ago, with Labor consistently around 7% ahead statewide. They still expect to lose Chisholm and Dunkley, but believe they may hold not just La Trobe but also Corangamite, albeit that skepticism was expressed about the 54-46 result in the Geelong Advertiser’s ReachTEL poll. The obverse of this would seem to be that things remain radically bad for the Liberals nearer the city, to the extent that they are only “narrowly ahead” in Kooyong and Higgins.

• On the ABC’s Insiders on Sunday, Patricia Karvelas said she had spoken to Nationals who believed George Christensen was “gone” in Dawson, while fellow panellist Andrew Probyn said both sides did not know what to expect given the wild card of preferences from One Nation, who did not field a candidate in 2016 and are now expected to poll up to 20%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

855 comments on “Election minus three-and-a-half weeks”

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  5. Any comment on here re the ZERO Inflation Rate?

    How much better does it get than a ZERO Inflation Rate – the AUD tanking, interest rates to fall still further, the ASX surging because the expectation is no pressure to increase wages plus even lower interest rates will see bank lending increase (because it costs nothing to borrow money)

    As I say, how much better can it be than this?

    And Ad Man from Mad Men tells us that our electricity costs are falling to boot

    No mention of gas costs tho

    Or Private Health Cover premiums

    Just for starters

    But, hey

    Inflation is at ZERO

    Stagflation anyone?

    And the history of stagflation is?

    Perhaps we could ask Ad Man from Mad Men if the price of a pint in the front bars he frequents have also fallen

    And what wages those serving him are on – including when working on weekends?

    But hey, inflation is at ZERO so you do not need any increase on your wages because prices increases for Goods and Services (on which we pay a Coalition tax) are going nowhere, fast

    Seriously tho, we may get a further indication of what the RBA thinks of all this in a couple of weeks when their Board meet – because this dysfunctional and dangerous “government” will no doubt trumpet “interest rates will always be lower under a Coalition Government” if interest rates are further reduced

    Trusting the electorate is uneducated and has no conception that interest rates are at emergency levels and falling further for a reason

    The economy is stuffed – which is the outcome of right wing austerity settings to deliver confidence by trickling down to a stressed population

    Read Stiglitz – for starters

  6. “ALP going to take your children’s gender of them! ”

    So the odious Cash will be able to stop saving young apprentices utes and move on to save our children’s goolies??

    Perfect opportunity to get her back into the campaign where she is needed! 🙂

  7. a r @ #711 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 9:38 pm

    You can’t tar a religion just because some terrorists claim affiliation with it. Or if you want to go down that route, then you have to tar basically every mainstream religion exactly the same. Except maybe Buddhism. Has a terrorist ever claimed to be Buddhist?

    Lots of them in Myanmar, slaughtering muslims.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-21/buddhist-extremism-meet-the-religions-violent-followers/10360288

  8. WayOutWest says:
    Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 10:07 pm
    Grimace, I was in Yanchep too. Yanchep has changed immensely in the past few years. The local state MP has delivered time and time again and that will help Labor considerably.

    Labor will always have a tough battle with so many vested interests against it on the right, but my inexperienced view from the doors is either people are very good at deception or the polls are underestimating the level of anger at the Coalition.
    **********

    Looking at areas I’ve door knocked in, Kim Travers will take Yanchep and Ellenbrook on primary vote, and will break even in Aveley. We’ll know about Brabam and Dayton after the weekend and I think it will be similar to Ellenbrook. Looking at the other big metropolitan booths with the exception of Quinns Rocks and Mindarie, which are all likely to swing towards Labor, and Porter doesn’t have much in the way of plausible paths to victory.

  10. EGW says:
    Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 9:43 pm

    …

    Have a look at Myanmar and what Buddhists are getting up to there. The victims? Muslims.

    But that was State sanctioned and so, supposedly can’t be considered terrorism.

    Genocide maybe, but not terrorism. 🙁

  13. Everybody remember the 2016 campaign?
    Bill was down and out, he was shifty and unpopular, he was in negative territory with the voters in the polls.
    The NewsCorp journalists and Sky said Labor would not win a seat.
    The entire campaign from the Coalition and their media boosters was to play the man and not the politics.
    And, boy they did.
    Have you all forgotten the 2016 campaign and what it was like, the appalling lies told, the general nastiness??
    What you are seeing now you have seen before, the ugliness of character assassination, everything, including the kitchen sink was thrown at Bill.
    But after all this, despite all this, what happened Election Day?
    Do you all remember what happened?
    Bill and Labor won 15 seats!!!

    This time around, the same campaign by the Coalition and their media boosters is being run again.
    But this time there is a subtle difference, this time Labor is chasing five seats to win., and they are going to get them.
    The Coalition and their media mates know this, one can smell their desperation in the air, and blood too.

  14. Hmmmmm…ScoMo vs Shorten in a town hall format debate??

    Morrison will cope with it. It will be like a sermon. The career he nearly had. Expect clapping and singing. It will go down well with the peeps.

  16. Yes, the Coalition resurgence narrative relies on no actual polling data. It has a shelf-life

    When they realise there’s been no shift in week 1-2 of the campaign watch the wheels fall off and the knives come out.

  17. Everybody remember the 2016 campaign?
    Bill was down and out, he was shifty and unpopular, he was in negative territory with the voters in the polls.

    I dont remember it that way. I thought he was up (just) but the polls turned against the ALP last half of the campaign. I also thought his popularity was similar to Turnbulls.
    But I could be wrong.

  19. ” Hmmmmm…ScoMo vs Shorten in a town hall format debate??

    Morrison will cope with it. It will be like a sermon. The career he nearly had. Expect clapping and singing. It will go down well with the peeps.”

    And all at considerable volume. Praise be Brothers and Sisters….. ah have SEEEEEEEEEEN daH light!!!

  20. Basil is a footy commentator, sometime host of Sunrise and regular breakfast radio host on 6PR. The West journo is simply awful. Riley is Riley.

    I’m surprised Bill Shorten went for this option. The panel will be loaded against him and if it’s an invited audience then on The West’s form it will be rigged. Luckily nobody will be watching, so it’s just a matter of not cocking up as that would dominate the media for the rest of the week.

  22. Was it Socrates who earlier mentioned he is getting NBN HFC?

    I am in the same boat an looking at options for a service provider.

    Aussie was recommended last night by AGM? And my son uses Aussie as well and recommends them.

    OTOH, Telstra has a rather attractive modem that switches to 4G if the HFC drops out as my non-NBN HFC frequently does and did earlier this evening.

    Pricing is not all that different if you try to compare like with like.

    Does anyone have any other suggestions?

  24. Dan G:

    Yes you gotta wonder where the thinking is going by hosting the debates with such lightweights. Kochie is one thing. Zempilas is another entirely.

  25. Simon² Katich® @ #773 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 10:45 pm

    Does anyone have any other suggestions?

    F Telstra.

    My mobile phone is with them and works beautifully.

    It is the same physical infrastructure no matter which retailer you go with, except for the modem.

    I haven’t tried negotiating yet, but I think if I have mobile phone and internet with them I get a discount.

  26. yabba @ #757 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 10:26 pm

    a r @ #711 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 9:38 pm

    You can’t tar a religion just because some terrorists claim affiliation with it. Or if you want to go down that route, then you have to tar basically every mainstream religion exactly the same. Except maybe Buddhism. Has a terrorist ever claimed to be Buddhist?

    Lots of them in Myanmar, slaughtering muslims.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-21/buddhist-extremism-meet-the-religions-violent-followers/10360288

    Seems to be plenty of evidence of supremist Buddhist attacks against minorities in Sri Lanka as well. Though Buddhism seems less available to be hijacked by hate that some other religions, which have the hate baked in, hate is a pervasive and folk will find a way to justify it.

  27. My mobile phone is with them and works beautifully.
    It is the same physical infrastructure no matter which retailer you go with, except for the modem.
    I haven’t tried negotiating yet, but I think if I have mobile phone and internet with them I get a discount.

    F Telstra

  28. Simon² Katich® @ #777 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 10:48 pm

    My mobile phone is with them and works beautifully.
    It is the same physical infrastructure no matter which retailer you go with, except for the modem.
    I haven’t tried negotiating yet, but I think if I have mobile phone and internet with them I get a discount.

    F Telstra

    They must have done something terrible to you at some stage.
    Have you tried trauma counselling?

  29. I think this might be the Anzac Day bomb.

    Parliament free of homophobes’: GetUp drops H-bomb on Coalition
    …
    GetUp has urged volunteers to help win “a parliament free of homophobes” in a controversial campaign message targeting Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton.

    The SMS message, sent on Wednesday evening, went to volunteers who took part in GetUp’s campaign to call voters and advocate a “yes’” vote in the 2017 marriage equality postal survey.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/24/parliament-free-of-homophobes-getup-drops-h-bomb-on-dutton-and-abbott

  30. I am on TPG. No problems.
    I have heard Aussie very very good. Especially if you want high speeds.
    At work we are with Telstra.

  33. There was a report from a few weeks ago that Basil Zempilas couldn’t see the need for an opposition leader in Australia because they don’t have one in America. This guy is seriously lightweight.

  34. I saw some reference here earlier to “a tightening of the race on the ground” and a “surge in coalition support”. What’s that all about?

  36. This election reminds me of the 2016 in that whenever I turn on the ABC news it sounds like almost complete propaganda for the Liberal party… in 2016 I just thought it was a Turnbull fetish that the media has, but no, with Scrot at the helm it is just the same old.
    And then throw in the dastardly Bill Shorten reporting… which has never changed, happened during the byelection, it is the exact same thing again.

  38. Telstra.
    2 weeks of clients calling in to the office only to get a fax machine. We dont have a fax machine. Told Telstra it was a crossed line. They tried a few things over several days. Didnt work. It was also effecting our internet and out calls. They whinged it was probably at our end and if they sent someone out it would cost us a small fortune.

    Eventually someone came out. The technician was awesome and figure out straight away it was a crossed line. He tried to explain it to the head office people (who were the ones hopeless with us)… and he couldnt get them to understand. took hours. Eventuality they clicked that our clients and prospective clients were being redirected to a fax machine in Orange NSW.

    Fixed.

    We complained about lost business and they gave us the finger.

  40. Aussie were great campaigners for the proper NBN and in several articles and media releases (from memory) complained about the dumbing down of the NBN by Turnbull.

    I know several people first hand happy with them and they get great reviews on various forums.

  41. Didn’t the proprietor of 7 Network, Stokes, along with his mate, Murdoch, use their Liberal Party influence to rid us of Turnbull as pm?

    And that is before you get to the 9 Network with Costello as Chair

  42. “Seems to be plenty of evidence of supremist Buddhist attacks against minorities in Sri Lanka as well. Though Buddhism seems less available to be hijacked by hate that some other religions, which have the hate baked in, hate is a pervasive and folk will find a way to justify it.”

    Speaking as someone who identifies as philosophically Buddhist, religious violence is done by people who have just outright missed the fwarking point of whatever their professed religion is.

    “I saw some reference here earlier to “a tightening of the race on the ground” and a “surge in coalition support”. What’s that all about?”

    Delusional optimism??

  43. Burgey

    Any poll not giving the TPP is obviously a shocker for the Coalition.

    As long as there are no polls – the Coalition cannot be going backwards!

    The polling drought will break – on Sunday night and Monday.

    Then watch the real panic set in among various media organisations.

  44. Also talking about drought – Melbourne has had 45mm rain so far this year, the driest start ever recorded to a year. Average till now is about 200mm.

    We would be on water restrictions in Melbourne if not for the Desalination Plant. I seem to remember State Liberals – Louise Asher and co – saying “If we win government we will NEVER use one drop of water from the desal plant” in the lead-up to the 2010 election. As the drought wore on they quietly dropped this pledge, knowing they may have ended up looking like (bigger) fools.

  45. Simon² Katich® @ #790 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 11:02 pm

    Aussie were great campaigners for the proper NBN and in several articles and media releases (from memory) complained about the dumbing down of the NBN by Turnbull.

    I know several people first hand happy with them and they get great reviews on various forums.

    My son appreciates the local support they provide, using people who actually know what they are talking about.

  47. Nath, if you’re about — I observe that earlier today you posted a meme from a far right Facebook account, which you were happy to make common cause with because it was criticising the ALP right. As I correctly observed on one such occasion previously, the reason you do this sort of thing is that you’re a childish arsehole.

  48. I’m not talking about the TPP in 2016, I know the ALP narrowly led until the last week.
    I’m talking about popularity, then like now Bill lagged behind PM Turnbull in ALL the popularity polls. Then, like now the Liberals and the media never let Bill forget and reminded the voters all the time of Bill’s standing in the popularity stakes.
    It was all they had.
    Then we were chasing a pile of seats to be the government, it was a mountain.
    But we won 15 seats despite the Coalition and the media and this time around we are chasing 5 seats.
    Morrison and his Party are afraid, you can smell the fear. They know this time they are on the slippery slopes of that mountain, and they are sliding down those slopes faster and faster.

  49. “It is the same physical infrastructure no matter which retailer you go with, except for the modem.”

    Same physical infrastructure, but the amount of CVC provisioning they purchase makes a big difference. Aussie Broadband are great. If you’re in Perth, Future Broadband are worth a look as well, same level of quality as Aussie. Future have an actual Perth based call centre.

    TPG and the like are….economical

    Telstra are ok, from what I hear, but heaven help you if you want any service.

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