Election minus three-and-a-half weeks

It’s been a slow start to the federal election campaign so far as polling is concerned, but there are a few dribs and drabs around the place if you look hard enough.

First, I invite you to bask in the eye-wateringly detailed feast of psephological goodness that is my Senate election guide, subject of the post immediately below this one. Second, I understand we may yet see results from an Essential Research poll conducted over the weekend, but apparently not quite yet. Third, we reach an important milestone in the campaign today with the declaration of candidates and ballot papers draws, nominations having closed yesterday.

With all that out of the way, I offer the following assembly of polling snippets and horse race prognostication, in keeping with my performance indicator of having at least one new post up on every day of the campaign, except maybe on Saturdays.

• The unpredictable Roy Morgan has released the results of its weekend face-to-face polling – probably a more fraught exercise than usual over Easter – which finds Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 39%, Labor 35.5%, Greens 9.5%, One Nation 4.5% and, contrary to its strong showing in the marginal seat Newspolls published yesterday, United Australia Party 2.0%. The published release compares with those of “the prior surveying period of April 6/7 & 13/14, 2019”, though the last results it actually published covered only the first half of that period. Either way, the result in the earlier poll was 52.5-47.5 to Labor. The sample of this latest poll was a rather modest 707.

• Roy Morgan also appears to be doing separate polling for the Australian Futures Project which I must find out more about, since all I can tell you is that News Corp’s Annika Smedhurst has published results from it on two successive Sundays. I didn’t bother with its findings last week because they related only to issue salience and didn’t show up anything you couldn’t have guessed, and the most recent results have only just come to my attention. These do actually cover voting intention, and record a 52-48 lead to Labor on two-party preferred. Beyond that though, there are no primary votes and nothing on sample size or survey methodology, with other details in the report relating only to the undecided rate. I can’t find the report online, but Smedhurst has posted an image of it on Twitter.

• Polling conducted by the Liberals for Telereach in the the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, and published by local newspaper the Burnie Advocate, finds Scott Morrison with a 44% approval rating and 43% disapproval rating in the electorate, whereas Bill Shorten has 31% approval and 59% disapproval. Though perhaps the past tense would be more appropriate – the poll was conducted on April 3, from a sample of 626. Some may ask why the Liberals would provide data on leadership ratings but not voting intention. I do not know the answer.

• Journalists continue to receive wildly different impressions of the situation in Victoria depending on whom they talk to. The Financial Review yesterday reported Scott Morrison was starting to find favour among “blue-collar and outer-suburban voters”, turning around what was a “horrendous” situation two months ago, with Labor consistently around 7% ahead statewide. They still expect to lose Chisholm and Dunkley, but believe they may hold not just La Trobe but also Corangamite, albeit that skepticism was expressed about the 54-46 result in the Geelong Advertiser’s ReachTEL poll. The obverse of this would seem to be that things remain radically bad for the Liberals nearer the city, to the extent that they are only “narrowly ahead” in Kooyong and Higgins.

• On the ABC’s Insiders on Sunday, Patricia Karvelas said she had spoken to Nationals who believed George Christensen was “gone” in Dawson, while fellow panellist Andrew Probyn said both sides did not know what to expect given the wild card of preferences from One Nation, who did not field a candidate in 2016 and are now expected to poll up to 20%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

855 comments on “Election minus three-and-a-half weeks”

Comments Page 14 of 18
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  2. I worked as a volunteer at the Matthew Talbot Hostel about 45 years ago.
    I would dismiss a throw away line about tenners.
    A tough hard desperate place for many older men often with alcohol and mental issues.
    Often ex service men.
    Clive Palmer would be stripped naked in seconds upon entering the hostel just before lights out. A place where you slept with your shoes/boots tucked under your arm.
    Beware a man robbed of dignity.
    A harsh cold lesson in my life.

  3. davidwh:

    I think it was in yesterday’s Crikey email there was an article from the Warringah campaign. Whoever wrote it said Abbott has campaigned almost exclusively in the local Manly paper, eschewing the national media that he’s previously used in campaigns, and that he could automatically command as an ex PM.

    He’s taken to using social media more, something I noticed almost immediately after Steggall announced her candidacy, and suddenly he cares about local issues he’s never previously expressed a view about.

    The strength and fury of Abbott’s campaign would suggest he is in trouble, and feel threatened by Steggall. I hope she can prevail over him, as he really does need to go. Our parliament has no more use for out of touch has beens like Tony Abbott.

  6. Australian media:

    We decide what an election is all about.

    It is about whether we think a candidate is fooling the people in a manner we approve of.

    Policy is completely irrelevant. We don’t know anything about policy. That’s why we ignore it and concentrate on the show. Policy us for policy wonks.

    We’ve decided ScoMo looks confident and relaxed. That’s because we define the words “confident” and “relaxed”.

    Therefore he will win. And to make sure of that, we’re not going to write or broadcast anything at all to the contrary. Even if Shorten wipes the floor with Morrison, we’ll write it up as an exception.

  9. davidwh says:
    Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 8:50 pm
    Primaries Coalition 39 Labor 35.5 Greens 9.5 ON 4.5

    David
    We saw that poll a couple of days ago.

  14. WayOutWest says:
    Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 5:28 pm
    Interesting to see recent polling in Pearce starting to reflect the conversations while out doorknocking (and the bookies odds) in that it is going to be a very close run thing for Porter.

    *******

    Are you going to be joining us door knocking in Braham and Dayton Saturday? Along with Whiteman, these suburbs almost didn’t exist in 2016. It’ll be interesting to see what type of reception we get there.

    I’m tipping an early night in Pearce, the path to victory for Porter is insurmountable.

  15. Shorten’s dodgyness and unpopularity looking to be a big factor in W.A:

    The West can reveal internal Liberal Party polling shows Mr Shorten is a net negative in many electorates across the country. In polling last month by Crosby Textor, Mr Shorten was polled as having a minus 26 favourability in Cowan — held by Labor’s Anne Aly by 0.7 per cent.
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s favourability in the seat was positive seven.
    Mr Shorten has a minus 19 net favourability across marginal seats nationally, according to the same polling…Labor sources said Mr Shorten did not play well in WA. And the power of Mr McGowan was much stronger. “They try to not use him as much as possible in material,” a Labor source said of Mr Shorten…A Liberal Party source said last night: “It comes up consistently in our research that people find Shorten untrustworthy.”

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election-2019/federal-election-2019-labor-puts-foot-down-after-bill-shorten-scrubbed-from-local-candidate-hand-outs-ng-b881174850z

  16. “Seems like a turf war between Clive and Pauline. Lovely.” With Fraser Anning weighing in, in nearly all electorates, just in case Clive and Pauline aren’t extreme enough for some. Even lovelier.

  17. Sammie the dog was listening to Barnaby Joyce on the radio. Sammie threw up on the rug. I turned the radio off and he wagged his tail.

    Nuff said.

  18. ‘Therefore he will win. And to make sure of that, we’re not going to write or broadcast anything at all to the contrary. Even if Shorten wipes the floor with Morrison, we’ll write it up as an exception.’

    As I said a few days ago, the media are furiously spinning Scrotty back into government.
    It’s the story they want to write. The greatest comeback in Australian politics. Scrotty prevails despite 3 years of Labor leading in the polls. Amazing.
    I can see the headlines now.
    It’s been decided.

    Blind.
    Freddie.
    Sees.
    It.
    Coming.

  19. So according to this ABC writer, all Morrison has to do is join the locals at every pub and he is home and hosed.

    It might have worked for Hawke but for happy clapper phoney Morrison? And where are all the front bench Liberals in this campaign?

    Scott Morrison’s re-election strategy relies on him passing the ‘pub test’
    By political reporter Jane Norman
    Updated about 10 hours ago

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-24/election-2019-analysis-morrison-campaign-strategy-the-pub-test/11035336

  23. “Sammie the dog was listening to Barnaby Joyce on the radio. Sammie threw up on the rug. I turned the radio off and he wagged his tail.”

    So we can take that as a negative review.

  24. “Internal Liberal Party polling shows Mr Shorten is a net negative in many electorates across the country…”

    Really? How long can they run this line? Not as if Shorten has just arrived to contest the election. He’s been there for 6 years as opposition leader and had a good result at the last election and more recently at by-elections.

    Liberal’s desperate to sell a narrative that certain media outlets are only happy to amplify but will those swinging voters buy it?

  26. Patrick Bateman
    says:
    Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 9:05 pm
    I get Shorten seeming uninspiring and not particularly likeable, but where does this untrustworthy stuff come from?
    _______________________
    A career of selling out workers of his own union for cash payments from companies so that the union can claim numbers at conference and get union officials into plum seats? AKA the SDA/AWU business power/patronage model?

  27. So according to this ABC writer, all Morrison has to do is join the locals at every pub and he is home and hosed.

    Perhaps he can upend more pints of beer on his head and really seal the deal.

  29. ‘but where does this untrustworthy stuff come from?’

    Not just that, what about his ‘character’ why is it that people just question his ‘character’ without ever actually saying precisely what they’re talking about?

    And the reason there’s no Liberal front bench out and about is because the strategy is to make it a beauty contest between Scrotty and Bill.
    And I think we know why.

  31. Frankly no one has really connected that it seemingly doesn’t matter whether Shorten is liked or not? In both of these polls neither refer to the actual vote … Again Keating was the preferred PM in 1996 lost 31 seats, Gillard was and lost 11. Dan
    Andrews wasn’t in 2014 and still won. It’s a garbage metric and EVERONE knows.

    As for this beauty contest… the most digestible members of the LNP bench are either defending their own seats, or leaving parliament. Morrison is running his race alone because he sees himself as the saviour.

  33. Labor will lose both Lingiari and Solomon in NT at the election. NT voters will use the federal election as a chance to punish the worst government in Australia – the Gunner Labor government who are broke.

  35. I’m choosing not to respond to Nathpoleon’s latest contribution because if l did l would say: Nathpoleon, you have all the character and relevance of a silent fart. Fuck off and find a pub full of bogan wannabes and ne’er-do- wells to tell your story to.
    But l choose not to respond!

  36. Once again the liberals focus on the “ likeability “ of Shorten.

    No voting intentions or 2PP for WA or individual WA seats.

    Labor is running a Shorten campaign, a Plibersek campaign, a Albanese campaign and a Keneally “ Bill Bus “ campaign.

    As well, thousands of labor volunteers and thousands of “ change the rules “ volunteers.

    Do not look at the duck on the surface. Look at the paddling going on below the surface.

  38. Where is Michaela Cash? Do any LNP Ministers actually exist now that the election has been called? #watergate ‘flushed out’ Littleproud and Anus, but all the rest is *crickets*.

  41. “So according to this ABC writer, all Morrison has to do is join the locals at every pub and he is home and hosed.”

    The media are giving Morrison a free pass. If Shorten did it the headline would be “Bill Shorten’s Drinking Problem”

  43. Dog’s Breakfast @ #688 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 7:17 pm

    Where is Michaela Cash? Do any LNP Ministers actually exist now that the election has been called? #watergate ‘flushed out’ Littleproud and Anus, but all the rest is *crickets*.

    Cash, Dutton, Barnaby, Hunt have all been mothballed for the campaign.
    Frydenberg, Porter have their hands full.
    JBishop, Pyne and the rest of the retiring brigade have zero fcks to give.

  44. Just read a report on the GetUp ad. Inept in the extreme, total fail. Abbott is a clown, a thug, a serial liar, a nincompoop. Doing an attack ad that works should be easy. Must do better.

  46. I agree the PPM is mostly meaningless.
    The net satisfaction rating however matters. How much a consistent long term trend of -20 net sat for an opposition leader matters heading into the campaign proper is up for debate.

  47. adrian @ #675 Wednesday, April 24th, 2019 – 9:09 pm

    Apparently Ellen Fanning stated on The Drum that ‘nobody likes Bill Shorten’.

    Maybe she’s nath’s mum.

    In my teaching I have used, in the past, a now old BHP vid of the OK Tedi mine as a wondrous win of science over nature and culture…..voiced-over by none other than Ellen Fanning…..FMD, it is atrocious and I only showed it to alert students to the lengths that companies will go to in their self-promotion…..

  48. The message: “Nobody likes Bill Shorten. So why do YOU?”

    Bill is the classic Bad Boy, straight out of Married At First Sight.

    Which is produced by the same people, more or less, as produce television news.

    Why have mere reality when you can have Reality?

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