First up, two seat polling anecdotes to relate, one new, the other not so much:
• The Geelong Advertiser yesterday published a ReachTEL poll from Corangamite, showing Labor trailing 52-48 in the must-win seat. After exclusion of the 3.5% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 42.1%, Labor 34.9%, Greens 8.2%, United Australia Party 5.7% and others 5.6%. The results are radically unlike those of the last such poll in December, which had primary votes of Labor 42.8%, Liberal 33.7% and Greens 11.7%. The poll was conducted “earlier this week” from a sample of 788.
• Further results have emerged from the uComms/ReachTEL poll of Bass, conducted for the Australian Forest Products Association and covered here in a post on Wednesday, have emerged: specifically, the full primary vote totals, both for the initial question and the forced-response follow-up for the undecided. However, there was evidently an error in the latter set of results, as they added up to 131.4%.
Other assessments of the situation from around the place:
• Contrary to a growing view that the Coalition might be back in business, David Crowe of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Labor is confident it can win more than 15 seats, which includes “a handful in Victoria, some in Western Australia and several in Queensland, not least Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson”.
• On Tuesday, Michael Koziol of The Age said the consensus from Victoria is that the Coalition would lose three to five seats: “Corangamite and Dunkley seem likely to fall, Chisholm too, while La Trobe and Casey are marginal”. Not included in the list is Deakin, where Liberal sources cited in The Australian, also on Tuesday, said they were “fairly comfortable”. Contra ReachTEL, the Liberal sources rated Corangamite a “near-certain loss” – an assessment that did not stop Scott Morrison campaigning in the seat that very day.
zoomster @ #546 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 8:02 pm
And even many of those voters voting above the line may place the Labor list before the LNP list (or exhaust before they get to either)
Late Riser @ #536 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 8:00 pm
Katter’s not running for the Senate. I don’t think he has any candidates either. I could be wrong of course and usually am. 🙂
poroti @ #544 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 8:04 pm
Obviously he means bias NOT towards the Coalition. 😆
Steve777 @ #545 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 8:04 pm
Which goes to the reason why I asked if they were a Muslim separatist group, as the bombings were in Catholic Churches.
Tristo
I hope you are right. Especially regarding the Senate.
However I don’t think you can say polls are excluding those young voters.
Unless of course the polling companies are using landlines.
Hardly anyone I know uses landlines. So if landlines are still a high percentage of the calls being placed then it would skew towards older people who have not taken the Naked approach to the Internet.
Those in share houses. Boarding houses and move around the country a lot are of course most likely not to have a landline.
Of course the problem for polling companies is how do they determine the geographical area if they are calling mobiles?
C@tmomma @ #552 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 8:06 pm
From the North West Star – actually looks like a reasonable candidate on paper:
The Katter’s Australian Party has announced Joy Marriott as their Senate candidate for Queensland in the next federal election.
KAP Federal Leader Bob Katter and state leader Robbie Katter made the announcement in Cairns Friday.
They said Ms Marriott, a grazier from Lakeland north-west of Cairns, was “a passionate Queenslander who is committed to developing regional Australia”.
She has previously held positions such as President of the Cape York Peninsula Development Association and National Councillor on the Cattlemen’s Union Australia.
The KAP say Ms Marriott would campaign to lower the cost of living for all Queenslanders particularly those most vulnerable such as retirees and pensioners and small businesses by reducing electricity and fuel prices.
C@tmomma
The Murdoch
News Corp AustraliaMinistry of Propaganda will of course be held up as the model of even handedness.poroti @ #548 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 6:04 pm
Rowan Dean on his Sky News program has pledged a similar commitment, except he’s been tackling bias at the BoM when it comes to weather reporting. LOL and on cue the world record warm temps have kept coming over the years.
guytaur @ #555 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 8:08 pm
Polling companies now use mobiles extensively. At least one has both my mobile and landline numbers! The comment about location is very relevant – perhaps this is a contributing factor to seat polls being absolute rubbish.
A good observation by Steven Hail of the University of Adelaide. His Facebook page is called Modern Monetary Theory – Economics For Sustainable Prosperity.
The Tamil Tigers are nationalist, religion is not part of their ideology, although during the civil war they expelled Muslims from their territory, mainly because the latter did not support the separate state rather than problems with religion.
AJM
That last paragraph is the argument Abbott Palmer etc used in voting repeal of the Gillard Government Climate laws.
I would urge QLD Labor to use their energy to get a Labor or failing that Greens Senator elected instead.
Progressive Katter is not.
Gabrielle Chan
Verified account @gabriellechan
36m36 minutes ago
Labor has given Scott Morrison a deadline of Monday to address questions about the 2017 water buybacks, and has not ruled out establishing a royal commission if Shorten wins. @murpharoo @annefdavies
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/21/calls-mount-for-royal-commission-into-controversial-murray-darling-water-buybacks?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Well, color me surprised. This one’s so old, it’s got whiskers on it.
After three years of cock-ups, party room putsches, knifings, crony capitalism and an inability to lie straight in bed from the Liberal-Nationals, “Business” is terrified of a Labor win.
“The richer you are, the more worried you are,” one very high-net-worth individual quipped. Another – this one a billionaire – suggested a Labor win would be “a disaster”. Both have their hands on the tiller of very large companies employing tens of thousands of people.
In general, big business concerns reflect their belief that the economy is increasingly fragile and that Labor’s policies might tip the scales.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/what-big-business-won-t-say-publicly-about-a-labor-victory-20190418-p51fcr.html
Let’s wrap democracy. If “Business” finds Labor unacceptable electorally (and when haven’t they?) , then we may as well cut to the chase and introduce a one-party state.
guytaur @ #486 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 7:16 pm
You are using it entirely incorrectly. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentecostalism
davidwh@8:01pm
Yes most Srilankan Tamils are Hindus. But most of the Tamil Tigers are Christians. For example, Slain Tamil Tiger leader V. Prabhakaran was a Christian. As far as I know All his deputies were Christians. Tamil Tigers were defeated and most of them killed by Sri Lankan army.
McCrann is a copper-bottomed idiot.
He is assuming zero cost for mining and transporting coal, and building and maintaining thermal power stations!
guytaur @ #562 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 8:14 pm
On economic issues KAP is pretty much old fashioned Labor and Labor worked with them in the minority government period in Queensland on that basis. They tend to be very socially conservative and pro-mining, which is also, to be honest, old-school Labor. This candidate’s background indicates she might be a bit more flexible on these issues than the male member of the KAP. I wouldn’t rely on it, but you never know.
I think a lot of KAP VOTERS might be inclined to put Labor ahead of LNP in their preferences regardless of official party positions.
michael @ #492 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 7:25 pm
Demented stuff. But obviously it appeals to you.
Such a country would be an international pariah and subject to all sorts of economic penalties.
“In general, big business concerns reflect their belief that the economy is increasingly fragile and that Labor’s policies might tip the scales.”
Self-interested bleating as always.
There’s a quote from Michael Foot (or maybe Aneurin Bevan), words to the general effect that Government’s job is to look after ordinary people, especially the disadvantaged. The rich can get stuffed. They’ll manage, they always do.
Bill Shorten can’t say that, and shouldn’t, but it’s a sentiment we should hear more of.
C@tmomma @ #552 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 8:06 pm
I’m just guessing myself. 🙂
I think it used to be a bit of truism that while Australians were mostly not very religious they tended to admire people who were religious. I speak in the broadest possible terms.
It seems to me that two trends have disturbed this view: the RC into child sex abuse on the one hand and the rise of a generation that has had no connection with churches at all.
Anyhoo it seems to me that that image of Morrison might actually hinder his campaign.
I don’t know.
I do hope that 100% of the idiots restrain themselves from adding a Hitler tache to the image. But I am not hopeful.
Well, the Crows certainly gave BK his birthday present!
“However, listening to Rex Patrick today on Insiders, I would have to say, in a head to head competition, I would much rather Skye Kakoschke-Moore than Sarah Hanson-Young. Centre Alliance sound sane and reasonable in comparison to The Greens hysterical approach.”
CA have pledged to oppose ALP taxation policy on franking credits and negative gearing, which the Greens support. CA/NXT previously supported the ABCC, which the Greens opposed.
You can hate on the Greens’ personal style or jewellery all you like, but it’s a simple fact that the Greens are the ALP’s most reliable partners in parliament and that the CA are far more Lib-friendly and ALP-hostile.
CA have pledged themselves against
‘michael @ #492 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 7:25 pm
McCrann makes an interesting point. ‘
It is never too late to start.
A perfect illustration… if it’s not your story, ignore it. But if you suddenly discover it was your story all along, well…
The Guardian is only now getting interested in #Watergste, although they claim they’ve been on it for months.
Guardian Australia has spent several months looking into the sale of water, and why the government chose to buy water from a company called Eastern Australia Agriculture for $79m when it had rejected it twice before. No clear answers have emerged, other than that EAA was a willing seller and its investors were keen to realise their investment.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/21/calls-mount-for-royal-commission-into-controversial-murray-darling-water-buybacks?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Nice timing. Better late than never, I guess.
EGW
That’s basically how I was thinking of it. I just wasn’t sure we could include Mormon and Jehovah’s Witnesses in that.
As I said I was talking mainly about the Americans approach of boasting not modesty to put it more basically.
You don’t see many broadcasts from Anglican and Catholic ceremonies in England as a contrasting country example.
He looked like he wasn’t in control, that he was merely an empty vessel simply waiting to be filled. Nobody wants that for their PM, as evidenced by the fact that the many PMs that have been knifed by the party over the years, rather than by voters has turned people off politics big time.
“My dream Senate result is that all the centre and left of centre candidates just fail to get a quota and their preferences elect Labor senators”
That’s not how it works. If someone ‘just fails’ to get quota then their preferences will probably not be distributed. (Only if *two* othe candidates get even closer to quota.)
Three 5 star hotels were bombed which is more of a separatist action than a religious one. But I thought the Tamil Tigers had been neutralised.
ajm @ #512 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 7:43 pm
I thought they were Hindu, being based on the Tamil population which is Hindu.
The majority of the population is Sinhalese and Buddhist.
There are also Christian and Muslim minorities.
In a similar vein, by texting Karvelas live on national TV with his #watergate rebuttals and having her read them out, Joyce has given her the perfect excuse to dive headlong into the story. Thanks Barnaby!
Wot? No Noospull?
Scott Morrison was praying for guidance to a guy above the clouds of the Sutherland Shire, fcs! I really don’t think he should be our PM.
Dio
It is a bit of a mystery. I saw a segment recently on Sri Lanka reintroducing the death penalty. I am not sure if there is a connection.
Martin B,
And The Greens have committed themselves to blocking Labor’s Climate Change package! Give me CA any day. Especially as Rex Patrick made it clear on Insiders today that he was open to negotiation with Labor over their tax package.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/04/21/election-minus-four-weeks/comment-page-11/#comment-3138819
One Nation would have won a seat at a half-Senate election, this is proved by the section 282 count, to determine which of the 12 elected candidates would have won in a 6 candidate election (which is slightly unfavourable to the Waters because the exclusion of over 100,000 votes that did not preference one of the 12 candidates who won were excluded, lowering the quota and thus increasing the surplus of LNP 2nd candidate and Pauline Hanson by more than the increase in the ALP surplus).
https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/website/External/SenateStateDOP-s282-20499-QLD.pdf
One Nation does receive preferences and thus primary vote, particularly at a state lower house single member election where they did not run in every seat, is not a full indicator
One Nation also won a seat at the half-Senate election in 1998.
It is however true that the number of parties competing for the right-wing vote and political trends against the right at this election could defeat all the right-wing minor parties.
Boerwar @ #585 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 8:37 pm
Funny way for someone to find out the answer.
Cat
If we are really lucky Justin Bieber could visit during the campaign. As a fellow evangelist we could see Morrison and Bieber praying together.
Could kill two careers at once 🙂
William Bowe says:
Sunday, April 21, 2019 at 7:37 pm
One learns a great deal from the PB comments board. Today, it’s that “Fuhrer salutes” are “pretty much par for the course” at Pentecostal church services.
They are not putting their heart and soul into it. Bit of a half ass effort, a bit like the carrot goose step.
Confessions @ #582 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 8:35 pm
Yes, I detected a sceptical tone in Karvelas’ voice as she read it out as well.
SL Defence minister saying it was “religious extremists” but not more specific.
The chances that any of the pop-right groups can win a Senate seat in a normal half-Senate election have to be fairly low. It’s possible the Gs could also lose Senators in the coming election. The minor parties have better chances in double dissolution elections, as we saw in 2016. This gives minor-group Senators a very strong incentive to disrupt the incoming government; to try to provoke a DD where they might improve their own chances of re-election.
We can expect the Senate to retain its obstructionist character, whatever happens. Policy deadlock is a function of the working of the Constitution. Perhaps it’s time to change the Constitution. It would be helpful if a Senate that was persistently hostile to the House could be sent to an election without the House. This would reverse the current situation. It may also help to remove the proportional representation method of electing the Senate, which has entrenched obstruction as a political device.
A Senate that was elected on the basis of single member electorates, like the House, and which could be singly dissolved for obstructing the House, would be a totally different chamber from the one we now see in action.
C@t:
If nothing else it gives the lie to Barnaby’s ‘out of range’ excuses. He somehow finds it incredibly easy to get himself back in range when he has opportunity to shoot a response into the fray that can’t be challenged.
That excuse won’t wash anymore.
Sri Lanka.
8 explosions 140 people killed according to CNN
“ The Greens have committed themselves to blocking Labor’s Climate Change package”
The Greens have clearly articulated their concerns and called for the ALP to negotiate. Only in PB Laborista world is that the same thing as “committed to block”.
But sure, if you would rather support Liberal policies on industrial relations and tax redistribution than see a Green elected, knock yourself out. Just stop pretending that it’s a progressive or pro-working class position.
any polls tonight?
briefly
You are truly living in fantasy land.
Its the voters will not to give any government a majority. Which is why Howard getting it once was such an exception.
Good luck selling that idea to the Labor party let alone the public
Who knows what will happen in Senate results? But Qld might be particularly messy. It’s not at all unlikely that ALP and LNP will both hit almost exactly 2 quotas, with little surplus or chance of a third.
In that case the 5th and 6th would be wide open, and while it wouldn’t guarantee anything, starting with about half a quota would at least be a real advantage for Greens.
A very bad idea.