Election minus four weeks

Another seat poll emerges crediting the Liberals with a surprise lead – in a seat neither side expects them to win, according to media reports.

First up, two seat polling anecdotes to relate, one new, the other not so much:

• The Geelong Advertiser yesterday published a ReachTEL poll from Corangamite, showing Labor trailing 52-48 in the must-win seat. After exclusion of the 3.5% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 42.1%, Labor 34.9%, Greens 8.2%, United Australia Party 5.7% and others 5.6%. The results are radically unlike those of the last such poll in December, which had primary votes of Labor 42.8%, Liberal 33.7% and Greens 11.7%. The poll was conducted “earlier this week” from a sample of 788.

• Further results have emerged from the uComms/ReachTEL poll of Bass, conducted for the Australian Forest Products Association and covered here in a post on Wednesday, have emerged: specifically, the full primary vote totals, both for the initial question and the forced-response follow-up for the undecided. However, there was evidently an error in the latter set of results, as they added up to 131.4%.

Other assessments of the situation from around the place:

• Contrary to a growing view that the Coalition might be back in business, David Crowe of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Labor is confident it can win more than 15 seats, which includes “a handful in Victoria, some in Western Australia and several in Queensland, not least Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson”.

• On Tuesday, Michael Koziol of The Age said the consensus from Victoria is that the Coalition would lose three to five seats: “Corangamite and Dunkley seem likely to fall, Chisholm too, while La Trobe and Casey are marginal”. Not included in the list is Deakin, where Liberal sources cited in The Australian, also on Tuesday, said they were “fairly comfortable”. Contra ReachTEL, the Liberal sources rated Corangamite a “near-certain loss” – an assessment that did not stop Scott Morrison campaigning in the seat that very day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

776 comments on “Election minus four weeks”

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  2. The Greens (running former senator Larissa Waters) will be likely competing with Labor to win the third ‘left’ seat.

    And there you have it,folks, the best reason to vote Labor if you live in Queensland. One more Labor Senator. No more Ms Stop Adani earrings. 🙂

  6. Perhaps a smart country may decide stuff this crap, and goes hard back to coal fired power and petrol cars and will make a killing as coal and oil are so cheap.

    I have read that trade agreements can include carbon requirements. This “killing” may well attract pariah status.

    EDIT: Fixed the blockquote

  7. Centre Alliance:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-facing-6-billion-threat-from-key-senate-crossbenchers-20190410-p51cz1.html

    The party emerging as Senate kingmakers will punch a multi-billion dollar hole in a Labor government budget, after declaring its opposition to raising the top income tax rate and two of Labor’s signature policies.

    Centre Alliance – formerly known as the Nick Xenophon Team – will block franking credit changes worth $5 billion a year unless they are grandfathered, and propose a cap on the number of properties that can be negatively geared, rather than abolishing the tax break for existing homes.
    :::
    Election analyst Kevin Bonham said One Nation was almost certain to regain the seat it lost through the defection of Fraser Anning in Queensland, with former senator Malcolm Roberts likely to return. They will also challenge for a spot in NSW.

    The Greens are “no sure thing” in Queensland or South Australia, he said, with prominent senators Sarah Hanson-Young and Larissa Waters falling short of the 14.3 per cent quota required and facing a battle to hold onto their positions against Labor and conservative opponents.

  10. It’s never the time for a zealot to run this country. Moreover, it’s about time for the MSM to call this shit out – it must find a spine: the CPG.

  11. Extracting fossil fuels requires real resources – it will always have a minimum cost that renewable energy is rapidly heading towards beating. In a world where most countries develop and use renewable energy, it will be the fossil fuel users who will be left behind with comparatively expensive power.

    Fossil fuel is a dead end and will become non-viable sooner or later. At the moment, clearly, this transition is not happening anywhere near quickly enough. The crucial question is what we do in the next 10 years and how quickly we can drive the transition. The long term is already locked in to renewables. Being a dinosaur will not confer any advantages.

  13. Given that the ALP (and maybe the LNP) want all social media to eliminate false and inflammatory items; can we get Wayne deleted?

  15. A couple of points

    Whilst hollering were Ad Man from Mad Men’s eyes closed?

    This is the “God makes babies”, “God makes the sun come up” and “God makes the grass green” brigade – and they have numbers in certain locations including outer Eastern Melbourne (where they have advertising boards saying remember that Labor did not proceed with East West Link so punish Shorten – so a State issue the Libs lost on then were thumped on at successive State elections – so bereft of policy)

    And, in Europe, you pay a premium for weekend hospitality services which is the accepted (given that Australian employers reward workers instead of pocketing the impost on clients which is not guaranteed given the headlines regarding under paying employees in Australia)

    There is a demographic who view the weekend is no longer of any significance – but they probably are not required to work on weekends, only to enjoy the spoils of the services provided including being able to play their footy and cricket where competition is mostly on a Saturday

    Then again our “God makes” Ad Man from Mad Men says our weekends are under threat because of Electric Vehicles

    Once an Ad Man, always an Ad Man, as Kennett taught us

  16. I am predicting that the Greens vote come election day will be considerably higher than what the opinion polls are showing. It could be high enough to get Senators elected in every state and maybe pick up to three lower house seats in Melbourne (Higgins, Macnamara and Kooyong).

    @Pegasus

    I think after that Al Jazerra documentary One Nation I predict aren’t going to get any Senators elected. Rather I predict Clive Palmer will get elected to the Senate.

  18. michael @ #492 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 7:25 pm

    McCrann makes an interesting point. When most of the world converts to renewable power and electric cars whats going to happen. Well the price of coal and oil will collapse. Perhaps a smart country may decide stuff this crap, and goes hard back to coal fired power and petrol cars and will make a killing as coal and oil are so cheap. While all the other countries using renewables have a lower standard of living, the rogue country’s population may well have a far higher standard of living due to the use of cheap fossil fuels.

    McCrann is an economic ignoramus (this is well known). Production and transport costs put a floor under all commodity prices. Also the loss of economies of scale as coal and oil production shrinks will push prices up. Finally, other countries are likely to impose punitive tariffs on countries that don’t pull their weight.

    I wonder how much it costs to maintain a horse these days?

  20. Zoidlord @ #418 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 5:15 pm

    @Lizzie/@KayJay

    That BBC Link:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-45292331https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-45292331
    404 – Page not found

    This might be because you typed in the web address incorrectly. Please check the address and spelling.

    The link is correct but appears twice, the second immediately following the first so making it incorrect.
    Try https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-45292331

  22. William,

    Yes, a reference to “the Nazi salute” is over the top; but Morrison’s view of the world is nevertheless worrisome – eg, a lump of coal is but 6000 years’ old. Yet then again so is any other religiosity in politics.

  23. Sounds like liberals continued use of Fake accounts/fake advertising/fake policies by liberals.

    Sally McManus
    ‏Verified account @sallymcmanus
    27m27 minutes ago

    Sally McManus Retweeted Colin Riddell

    This bloke is circulating a fake tweet. Clearly photoshopped. I did not write this. I do not own an Android. Help me expose it and get it removed

  25. PHON’s vote in Queensland last election wasn’t enough to win it a Senate seat in a ‘normal’ non-DD election, and the number of votes it received in the State election wouldn’t have got them one either (on primaries, at least).

    Their chances haven’t improved since, and there’s also several other RWNJ contenders in the Queensland Senate to contend with.

    Remember also that no one’s preferences go anywhere in particular – it’s up to the voters.

    I doubt PHON will win a Senate seat in Queensland.

  29. Tristo

    ‘I am predicting that the Greens vote come election day will be considerably higher than what the opinion polls are showing..’

    Usually it works the other way around.

  30. @Mavis Davis

    I don’t think it’s over the top, just look at the policies.

    Hates refugees.
    Hates people who are poor.
    He calls himself a Christian – but violates everything that the Church/God/Bible represents.
    Allowing fascist right to thrive.
    Natural Selection is quiet alive and well.
    Let’s not forget the Nazis use to rob people too.

  31. Mavis Davis @ #517 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 7:51 pm

    William,

    Yes, a reference to “the Nazi salute” is over the top; but Morrison’s view of the world is nevertheless worrisome – eg, a lump of coal is but 6000 years’ old. Yet then again so is any other religiosity in politics.

    Ah, yes. Therefore, coal was just put under the ground by ‘God’ so that Man could dig it up for Man’s benefit. So why stop? It would be going against the will of ‘God’!

    🙄

  34. McCrann makes an interesting point. When most of the world converts to renewable power and electric cars whats going to happen. Well the price of coal and oil will collapse.

    That isn’t necessarily the case. First, when renewables become the dominant energy source, demand for fossil fuels will fall, but so will supply (because there will be less extraction and refinement of fossil fuels).

    Second, there are major costs to using fossil fuels that aren’t reflected in the market prices: pollution, ill health, damaged ecosystems.

    So when renewable energy and storage technologies become capable of meeting all of a society’s energy needs cheaply, why would any nation double down on fossil fuels?

  35. Has there ever been a Fed election where the Green vote has significantly exceeded polling predictions? Genuinely curious, because my recollection has been of serial pre-election hype about a likely record vote, followed, on election day, by the cold hard reality of being stuck ~10%.

  36. According to Probyn on Insiders today, News Corp. is about to take over the West Australian after they laid off 30 ‘journalists’.
    Don’t we have an ACCC to prevent that sort of thing?

  37. @zoomster

    This election a higher percentage of 18-24 year olds are on the voting roll compared to the last election. Among many in that age bracket Climate Change is an existentialist issue and the Greens will benefit.

    Also I am expecting Palmer’s United Australia Party to pick up some former One Nation voters. So I believe Clive Palmer might have a decent chance of being elected to the Senate.

  38. zoomster,
    Not to mention that Clive Palmer is angling for the Senate seat that PHON is also aiming for in Queensland.

  43. Commenting on Morrison’s appearance at church today:

    Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
    14m
    Performative faith is like performative charity. No good person has ever done it, nothing good has ever come from it

  44. I’m not aware that the Tamils are Christians. Most are Hindu however the Tigers were a separatist group rather than a religious group.

  49. 😆 Kenny on Sky. He said with a straight face his program is having a look at “Bias in the media during this election campaign” .

  50. The Tamil Tigers are a nationalist group campaigning for a separate Tamil state. Whether they’re behind today’s atrocities is still apparently unknown.

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