First up, two seat polling anecdotes to relate, one new, the other not so much:
• The Geelong Advertiser yesterday published a ReachTEL poll from Corangamite, showing Labor trailing 52-48 in the must-win seat. After exclusion of the 3.5% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 42.1%, Labor 34.9%, Greens 8.2%, United Australia Party 5.7% and others 5.6%. The results are radically unlike those of the last such poll in December, which had primary votes of Labor 42.8%, Liberal 33.7% and Greens 11.7%. The poll was conducted “earlier this week” from a sample of 788.
• Further results have emerged from the uComms/ReachTEL poll of Bass, conducted for the Australian Forest Products Association and covered here in a post on Wednesday, have emerged: specifically, the full primary vote totals, both for the initial question and the forced-response follow-up for the undecided. However, there was evidently an error in the latter set of results, as they added up to 131.4%.
Other assessments of the situation from around the place:
• Contrary to a growing view that the Coalition might be back in business, David Crowe of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Labor is confident it can win more than 15 seats, which includes “a handful in Victoria, some in Western Australia and several in Queensland, not least Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson”.
• On Tuesday, Michael Koziol of The Age said the consensus from Victoria is that the Coalition would lose three to five seats: “Corangamite and Dunkley seem likely to fall, Chisholm too, while La Trobe and Casey are marginal”. Not included in the list is Deakin, where Liberal sources cited in The Australian, also on Tuesday, said they were “fairly comfortable”. Contra ReachTEL, the Liberal sources rated Corangamite a “near-certain loss” – an assessment that did not stop Scott Morrison campaigning in the seat that very day.
Thank you for your continuing efforts, William.
Perhaps you were tired this morning, but I notice that the last sentence on the Reachtel Poll ends up in the air.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers as yet another year ticks over on the BK life clock.
It is extraordinary that the profit from Barnaby Joyce’s record payment for Australian water rights, an $80 million payment of taxpayers’ money, found its way to a company in the Cayman Islands which had been set up by Angus Taylor, a company at which Taylor had been a director for six years. This is from the assiduous Michael West.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/barnaby-joyce-angus-taylor-australia-and-the-caribbean/
Jacqui Maley asks, “The Coalition spent large periods in government fomenting culture wars. But if they’re so important, why are we not hearing about them on the campaign?”
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/why-the-pm-is-shutting-up-about-the-culture-wars-in-this-campaign-20190419-p51fm1.html
Katharine Murphy tells us how Shorten the Redeemer met Morrison the Disruptor – and decided to fight back.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/20/how-shorten-the-redeemer-met-morrison-the-disruptor-and-decided-to-fight-back
The Coalition is facing calls for an inquiry into the Murray-Darling Basin plan water contracts signed off by the former agriculture minister Barnaby Joyce. As the Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young called for a royal commission on Saturday, Bill Shorten also weighed in, saying there were now “question marks about the probity” of the “nation’s biggest water purchase”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/20/coalition-faces-calls-for-inquiry-into-murray-darling-deals-signed-by-barnaby-joyce
Samantha Dick writes that the Good Friday campaign ceasefire between Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten ended almost before it began, with the two leaders trading verbal blows as if they had never heard of the word ‘truce’.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/04/20/easter-truce-over/
University deans are warning of a major shortage of teachers in the next four years, with a fall in students beginning teaching degrees coming at the same time as a projected boom in school enrolments.
https://www.smh.com.au/education/profession-in-crisis-teacher-shortage-predicted-in-next-four-years-20190417-p51f2q.html
Bill Shorten will reverse cuts to penalty rates as his first priority if elected to government, vowing to “restore wages to workers” within 100 days.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/04/20/election-campaign-easter/
A pretty good Sunday column from Peter FitzSimons here.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/can-you-hear-the-thunder-senator-s-bluster-on-adani-20190420-p51ft3.html
This might revolutionise the study of anatomy.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/buster-the-perfect-human-made-of-plastic-is-the-future-of-anatomy-20190418-p51fek.html
Labour will never defeat Nigel Farage if it continues to “sit on the fence” over Brexit and offers only “mealy-mouthed” support for a second referendum says the party’s deputy leader Tom Watson.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/20/second-eu-referendum-only-way-to-beat-farage-says-watson
Elizabeth Warren has become the first 2020 Democratic presidential candidate to make a full-throated call for President Donald Trump to be impeached following the release of special counsel Robert Mueller’s redacted report.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/elizabeth-warren-calls-for-trump-s-impeachment-romney-sickened-20190420-p51ft9.html
Peter Stanford writes that Pope Francis the reformer is being challenged by his conservative predecessor – who now has a far-right backing including Steve Bannon
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/20/popes-church-catholicism-easter-francis-steve-bannon
This article from the Washington Post on the Mueller report and Trump’s reaction is worth reading.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/trump-seethes-after-mueller-paints-damning-portrait-with-notes-from-white-house-aides-20190420-p51fsj.html
Surely this outfit deserves nomination for “Arseholes of the Week”!
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/apr/19/church-group-to-hold-washington-event-despite-fda-warnings-against-miracle-cure
Cartoon Corner
From John Spooner who we haven’t seen for a while.
Matt Golding has a few for us.
Another poetic putdown of Morrison from Mark David.
Out in the streets with Peter Broelman.
I can’t work out this one from Zanetti.
“What’s next?”, asks Jon Kudelka.
And he looks at the Easter holiday parade.
From the US.
I have just read Michael West’s #Watergate contribution from top to toe. It is a beauty!
Morning all. Thanks BK and happy birthday? May the easter bunny bring you a new government soon.
The #watergate water buyback scandal was supposedly covered on ABC yesterday & will be on Insiders this morning. Has 7 & 9 Media picked up on it yet?
This will have a massive effect on voting, especially considering it has come early enough for the record level of postal voting
BK
Callum Wilkie had another outstanding game for the Saints yesterday – he is rock solid and incredibly calm in defence. He was recruited as a back-up but with Carlisle and Roberton both out for a long time he got his chance and he has grabbed it with both hands. Hard to believe he had been overlooked in five national drafts!
As for Watergate – wouldn’t it be good if the media really went after this instead of just going ‘on the buses’ for the staged photo-opportunities.
My early morning thoughts: this LNP Government stinks of graft, corruption, appointment of mates, self-enrichment, incompetence, and several are just awful people – like Dutton.
I know there’s a lot of nervous nellies about but here’s the bottom line: the Australian people are not going to re-elect these people. They’ve been saying that for 3 years, and it won’t change.
Tories will get their hopes up at useless individual seat polls, but these hopes will be dashed.
Why? Here:
1. The Polls are not wrong. If the trend changes, worry then, not before. But they won’t change.
2. The government has no incumbency in terms of seats; it has essentially no lead in seats after redistributions and by-election losses. This is an unusually bad position.
3. Owing to its ridiculous SSM plebiscite, record numbers of young people are enrolled.
4, The LNP have lost all their talent. They’re gone! Retired.
And when the next tranche of major polls come in unchanged, the media will smell blood in the water, and rip the LNP apart.
If that happens watch for a 1983 level electoral drubbing of the LNP.
If I have one suggestion for Labor: highlight the experience gap more. The presidential focus on Shorto should broaden to the wider team more.
No one is ever home and hosed in a two-horse race but the Australian people are not mugs. They are telling us they are going this government in the bin and barring unforeseen circumstance, that it exactly what they will do come May 18
Meanwhile – straight at them. This government is the enemy of a decent future for Australia and none of us should rest till they are history.
#watergate now on ABC website
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-20/agriculture-department-stands-by-water-buybacks/11033530
Rick Wilsons thoughts on the past few days of Trump world – “And in TrumpWorld, intent f*cked incompetence”
Trump Says ‘Game Over,’ but Winter Is Coming
Congress now gets its bite of the apple, and the hidden secrets of Trump’s 2016 campaign and his reign of misrule will continue to come into the light.
The most striking part of the last two days is how Donald Trump and his allies are acting like losers, more aggrieved, bitchy, and petulant than ever. Somehow, “total exoneration” sounds like less like a win and more like a whine.
There are a few fundamental tells in Trumpworld. Trump’s outrage and projection tweets are always a barometer of his real mood, and since the release of the Mueller Report, it’s not exactly “Happy Don, America’s Fun-Lovin’ President.”
As I anticipated just before the report’s release, Americans now have confirmation for the history books of the most crucial in-kind donation to an American presidential campaign, ever. We see in black-and-white the degree and depth of the Russian active measures, propaganda, and intelligence warfare efforts that were the secret sauce of Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton. It wasn’t just MAGA or the Wall or celebrity bullshitting. An essential element of Trump’s victory was the work of Putin’s Little Helpers.
And we have confirmation that at this critical moment, we had an attorney general who put Donald, not America, first.
MUCH MORE : https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-says-game-over-but-winter-is-coming?ref=home
Happy birthday BK!
BK
Thanks for the link to the Michael West article on Watergate. It looks like Barnaby Joyce is not the best retail politician in Australia after all, if he pays twice what water allocations are worth.
In the more hotly contested “best rent-seeker” category, Barnaby is a strong contender.
Surely there is some way we can find out who owns the other 90% of the company? The risk of a conflict of interest seems massive.
Morning all. Happy birthday BK!
And thanks for the Michael West article on #watergate. Is anyone surprised to see the Commonwealth Bank at the centre of the loans to the Cayman Is company?
phoenixRed:
Did you catch this podcast with Rick Wilson, An Iceberg of Shit? His thoughts on the Mueller report and how Dems can beat Trump in 2020.
https://crooked.com/podcast/an-iceberg-of-sht-rick-wilson-on-the-mueller-report/
Malcolm Turnbull being helpful again.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1119514641749536769
If the House Democrats don’t pass articles of impeachment over the many severely corrupt practices of the Trump Administration, there is not much point in having an impeachment procedure.
Nancy Pelosi is making a bogus argument when she says that impeachment would be a waste of time because it would result in acquittal in the Senate.
Nancy Pelosi claims that the House Democrats are too busy passing substantive policy Bills (which are going nowhere in the Senate). Impeachment would go nowhere in the Senate either, so it isn’t really any different in that respect.
The Democrats can make the argument, “Here are policies and programs that would help hundreds of millions of Americans; ALSO we want to remove a corrupt lunatic who corrodes the institutions that Americans depend on.”
It isn’t either / or.
The impeachment process would help to document for posterity the corruption that has occurred and identify ways of minimizing the risk of such corruption happening again.
Impeachment puts a permanent stain on Trump’s legacy.
Impeachment sends a powerful a message that nobody is above the law.
Millions of petty drug offenders with criminal records and experience of incarceration would not agree with Nancy Pelosi’s argument that Donald Trump should be given a pass because it is too much trouble to impeach him.
Thanks BK for your special Easter Day — Dawn Patrol.
and
The happiest of birthdays to you.
I hadn’t seen this elsewhere:
BK
Thank you for your efforts.
Happy Birthday!
‘citizen says:
Sunday, April 21, 2019 at 7:54 am
I hadn’t seen this elsewhere:
VETERANS PACKAGE
‘Honouring Australia’s oldest promise’
Labor unveils an $118m package for veterans including a huge funeral expense offering.
By AGENCIES (Oz headline)’
Oh God No! Shorten has a secret plan to murder veterans!
lefty_e
Yes I think the massive enrolment of young people due to the Abbott/Dutton plebiscite will matter, and these are the very people who are very hard to poll.
I am confident Labor’s TPP will be 0.5 or so better than the the last polls taken in election week.
And happy birthday BK – a rare Easter birthday. If my memory serves me right the days at either end of the spectrum of possible Easters occur in pairs about a decade apart.
Just checked – yes 2030 is next one
Happy Birthday BK 🙂
“Shorten has a secret plan to murder veterans!”
You think thats a joke. Shorten thought his Death Tax remark was a joke until FrythePlanet ran with it. 🙂
From the Must Read Daily Telegraph Entertainment Section.
While I must shortly away to bemoan my ignorance –
A question or two.
Q. What in the name of the Lord Covfefe is a Bachehlor ❓
Q. What is a Fake Lesbian ❓
Send answers in a plain brown envelope (together with mucho cash) to
Mr. William Whatsisname C/-
Headquarters
Poll Bludgers Enterprises
PO Box 9876
Perth WA.
‘fess
And thanks for the Michael West article on #watergate. Is anyone surprised to see the Commonwealth Bank at the centre of the loans to the Cayman Is company?
I note that both Angus Taylor and Ian Narev (former CEO of CBA) were partners of McKinsey
Quite improbably enough, Watergate was the “barbecue stopper” at a family gathering last night.
What do we have?
Shorten wants to steal your utes and your weekends. He wants to rob retirees. He want to tax the dead. He wants to wreck the economy. He wants to steal your jobs. And now he wants to murder veterans.
Is there no end to his Shorten’s evil?
Lastest newspoll is just been released and is a very big surprise lead for the coalition which is in a election winning lead 52/48 looks like ALP have blowed there chance of winning this election so good night shorten time to resign your job……
Morning
HAPPY BIRTHDAY BK!!
I have just read your link to Michael West and Watergate. It is a beauty.
According to this article, the Nationals will be spared from SFF competition in NSW:
PhoenixRed
Thanks for latest from Rick Wilson.
I also listened to his podcast that fess linked yesterday. Worthwhile listening.
SH-Y giving an excellent i.v. on ABC.
Edit: Unfortunately she turned into ‘same-same’ at the end.
In a nutshell. Nichols is also right that at the first sign of Russians reaching out to Team Trump, they should’ve alerted the FBI, not rolled out the welcome mat. I wonder if Mueller ever thought during his investigation that these people were perhaps too stupid to prosecute.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/04/19/mueller-report-trump-commander-in-chief-russia-oath-column/3506216002/
Just heard this interview of Stephen Davis on RN . His book is “Truthteller”.
An Investigative Reporter’s Journey Through the World of Truth Prevention, Fake News and Conspiracy Theories.
There is a war on truth. And the liars are winning. There is an increasingly large number of weapons in the arsenal of the rich, the powerful and the elected to prevent the truth from coming out — to bury it, warp it, twist it to suit their purposes. Truthteller reveals how governments and corporations have covered-up mass murder, corruption and catastrophe. In a world where Putin and Trump have successfully branded journalists as traffickers in fake news, while promoting the actual creators of fake news, an investigative reporter shows the tools that are used to deceive us and explains why they work. Using exclusive documents and interviews drawn from three decades as an award-winning reporter, editor, foreign correspondent, television producer, documentary filmmaker, and journalism educator, Stephen Davis reveals shocking details of deception in the United States, the UK, Russia, Sweden, the Baltic republics, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, the Arctic and Antarctic.
Kelly saying that the Morrison Government’s climate framework is inadequate.
lizzie @ #30 Sunday, April 21st, 2019 – 8:20 am
Yes, it was a mature, reasoned performance from SH-Y.
She made clear that the Greens were very much open to negotiations in the senate to pass legislation that transitions the economy away from coal.
The SH-Y interview I was referring to was on Speers.
As per Michael Wests piece. Exactly the questions that need answering pronto. And the fact that both Taylor and Joyce have simply threatened legal action is beyond disgraceful. Labor should not let this one pass the keeper……
This latest point goes to the view, espoused by a number of analysts, that the water licences were not worth much if anything at all (it was floodwater) and begs the question as to why authorities paid a record price when, the year before the sale, even the vendors valued the rights at half the price paid.
What we don’t know yet is the answer to the $80 million question: who are the shareholders and other beneficiaries who had a stake in the Cayman Islands entity Eastern Australia Irrigation?
Happy Birdday BK!!!!
So Australia is taking no responsibility for a brain injury acquired at birth in WA?
Computer says no?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-21/family-from-maldives-fight-sons-deportation-disabilty/11019598
Happy Birthday & thanks for all the (Menindee) fish BK.
#Watergate is echoing around the silent halls of Easter Sunday – as does Michael West’s cry of cui bono? As West points out, the hysterical reaction of Taylor & Joyce’s lawyers has the potential to keep this bubble of H2S hanging around for the next month.
I wonder whether that $40,000 cheque Gina the Hutt handed Joyce in November 2017 was part of the deal? I suspect that Taylor was just the fixer – but still got Energy minister in the Clown Cabinet. The other Cayman Island Bankster has been remarkably quiet of late, but one does wonder why this is breaking now. ScuMo’s vultures have just come home to roost.
Will #watergate get a mention on Insiders?
Fess
William Barr is a compromised individual. Impeaching him would be a smarter move than trying to do so with Trump
There is no mention of Watergate 2.0 in Murdoch press as far as I know. I wonder why?
Murdoch press is the bane of Australian society. As Rudd said it is the cancer on our society. That cancer will spread to the body of our society If we do not defeat the current federal government.
Victoria:
Good point re Barr.
Happy Birthday BK.
Did yuh get your telegram from the Queen?
Paddy Manning. Just a reminder.
https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2019/16/2019/1555393339/fiscal-wolf-sheep-s-clothing
Happy birthday BK. A wonderful contributor and a genuinely likeable person.
Sort of the Boomer exception who proves the rule
Hope you have a great day.
Perhaps #watergate will help get rid of Angus Taylor in Hume, but that is still a big ask with his 10% margin, will require a good local campaign, he is still favorite paying $1.3, perhaps the odds will change if the issue starts to bite.
It looks like Barnaby will still win despite being probably the most scandalous MP in a very long time. There doesnt look to be a big name independent to replace Tony Windsor, and they wont vote Labor.
The story will need to hang around for a week before it seeps into the general population, doubt more than a few percentage of people are even familiar with it yet.
Puffytmd @ #643 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 9:18 pm
Fitzgibbon doesn’t fill me with any confidence re animal welfare.
In fact, his policy essentially is just propping up live exports, which should be terminated.
The establishment of so-called ‘Independent’ office holders is just window dressing as the minister, in this case Fitzgibbon, makes it clear he’s inclined to continue live exports.