Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The first published opinion poll of the campaign records no change in Labor’s modest yet decisive lead.

The Australian brings us a second Newspoll in consecutive weeks, perhaps portending weekly results from now to the election. It shows no change from last week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead, but both major parties are up on the primary vote – Labor by two and the Coalition by one, leaving them tied on 39%. The Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are, interestingly, down two to 4%. All we are told of the leaders’ ratings at this stage is that they are “virtually unchanged”. Scott Morrison is unchanged on 45% approval and up one to 44% disapproval; Bill Shorten is unchanged on both measures, at 37% and 51%; and preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged, at 46-35 in favour of Morrison. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. BH @ #444 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 12:22 pm

    Wayne Swan @SwannyQLD
    3h3 hours ago

    Whenever you hear Morrison talk about recession never forget during the Global Financial Crisis the Liberals did everything they could to try & stop Labor from preventing a recession.

    lizzie
    Thanks for the Swanny tweet.
    I well remember Thomas Paine saying, during the GFC, that his banker mates
    felt dirty after meeting with Turnbull who was complaining that Oz would not go into recession.

    We all know a lot of money can be made during recessions if you have the wherewithal and means to buy others’ downfalls.

    Hmmm to Swanny is one of those who thinks & (and) is a verb. Sad.

    And a trip down memory lane with Thomas Paine. I miss him.

  2. The only alternative to this refusal to accept identifying descriptions is bland reporting which means little. Like a police report. “A female person was present and …”

    No colour, no interest.

  3. David Leyonhjelm misses out on a NSW upper house seat!
    21 in total

    Libs 4
    Nats 4
    ALP 7
    PHON (including Latham) 2
    Greens 2
    Animal Justice 1
    Shooters 1

  4. I have just cancelled my deliveries of The West Australian. I know, I know, I should have done it earlier. Its deteriorating quality and escalating shrillness in its support for the dishonest and incompetent COALition has finally become to much to bear. This morning was the final straw. They seem to syndicate every RWNJ commentator in the land and their newly recruited on-staff journos are of the same ilk.
    My feedback was accordingly not positive.
    I feel better now that I am no longer guilty of supporting Stokes.

  5. michael,

    The final tally in NSW LC is LNP 17, ALP 14, GRN 4, AJP 2, ON 2, SFF 2, CDP 1.

    Actually 22-20 to the so-called Right.

  6. Rational Leftist @ #446 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 12:24 pm

    That said, in the 1997 SA state election, there was an ad for Labor that poked fun at the Libs, referring to “The SS Olsen” and sung as a shanty to the theme of Gilligan’s Island.

    I only have vague memories of it but I recall it crossing the threshold to being so bad it’s good.

    My favourite was this one from a NSW State Election way back in 2007.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkfL6PcKA98

  7. One Green member has told the Greens to get stuffed. He wants to deal with the government. I don’t know how to position him.

  8. Banner on ABC site:

    “Breaking news
    One Nation, Labor and Animal Justice have won the final spots in the NSW Upper House.”

    So about as good as it could have been. One more Labor, no David Leyonhejlm.

  9. michael, I think its safe to say that Justin Field wont be voting too many times with the Government. The greens will keep that seat in 2023 anyway.

  10. Well, a week of ScoMo as Joe The Gadget Man, spruiking policies that slice, dice, and julienne, dropping brain farts that could clear a room and raving about some evil garden gnome called “Bill Shorten”, has done nothing to alter the final projected outcome of May 18th.

    Meanwhile, Fran suggests on ABC TV that the scare campaigns are “doing peoples’ heads in”, and that they should cease forthwith.

  11. C@t

    Has Mr Bowe reinstated you as St Peter, in charge of the PB gate. If so, congratulations.

    Yesterday you told someone (EGW?) they were merely a johnny-come-lately. Today you say that Vic “came out of nowhere.” The context of both comments was pejorative; that of a long term poster apparently having more rights or credibility than newbie posters.

    Mr Bowe would know better than me, but I suspect that PB lurkers far outnumber posters. In my circle of friends and acquaintances I am the only one who has ever posted on PB, and the lurkers outnumber me about 10-1. A few of them predate my involvement, which is 10 years, and in fact steered me to PB.

    So you ought not get uppity and presume that you have paid your dues here well before someone else who may be a recent poster but a long term lurker.

  12. Probably true Paterson, but an Independent willing to talk is better than another Green with a definite no to everything in NSW for this term at least.

  13. “David Leyonhjelm misses out on a NSW upper house seat!”

    Oh that’s just so awesome! So funny after he claimed victory a couple of weeks ago too. What a fool. I bet Sarah Hanson-Young is having a good chuckle to herself right about now hehe.

    Aside from that, it demonstrates what I was saying about preferences being vital. Someone on here (one of the rusted on Labor trolls) was telling me that preferences were pointless. I made sure I prefrenced both Animal Justice and Labor after voting 1 Greens. You Labor lot should remember that when you’re accusing me and other Greens of attacking you. It’s Greens voters like me who can be bothered to fill out a bit of paper that just helped you get another seat. So glad AJP got in instead of DL too, that’s just glorious lol.

  14. The West’s new editor seems to think Western Australians have the same obsession with Israeli politics as some Sydneysiders. I doubt they do.

    When newspapers are so utterly biased it mitigates the effect of that bias. You’re better off being more subtle about it, but The West doesn’t really do subtlety. There was obviously a quid pro quo expected from the Coalition for allowing Stokes to take over the Sunday Times and it has been a delivered to such an extent that it is starting to backfire.

    I spoke to a couple of young guys on Saturday while doorknocking. They were working on a Commodore and laughed at the Lib scares campaign on EVs. My other highlight was Christian Porter spouting off about house prices falling if Labor got in. House prices in his electorate have plunged about 10-20% in his electorate in the past few years. He might know that if he was ever there.

  15. The new Chief Political Editor of The West Lanai Scarr has had an inauspicious start to her career – lifted today’s Daily Telegraph scare story on ev’s to hopefully scare a few tradies.

    Let’s put it this way, she makes Sarah Martin look like a Pulitzer prize winner.

    Ps I’m sure Sarah will improve at The Guardian without West editor De Ceglie breathing down her neck.

  16. Kate @ #476 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 12:44 pm

    The new Chief Political Editor of The West Lanai Scarr has had an inauspicious start to her career – lifted today’s Daily Telegraph scare story on ev’s to hopefully scare a few tradies.

    Let’s put it this way, she makes Sarah Martin look like a Pulitzer prize winner.

    Ps I’m sure Sarah will improve at The Guardian without West editor De Ceglie breathing down her neck.


    So we can call it a Scarr campaign ?

  17. Firefox @ #474 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 12:43 pm

    “David Leyonhjelm misses out on a NSW upper house seat!”

    Oh that’s just so awesome! So funny after he claimed victory a couple of weeks ago too. What a fool. I bet Sarah Hanson-Young is having a good chuckle to herself right about now hehe.

    Aside from that, it demonstrates what I was saying about preferences being vital. Someone on here (one of the rusted on Labor trolls) was telling me that preferences were pointless. I made sure I prefrenced both Animal Justice and Labor after voting 1 Greens. You Labor lot should remember that when you’re accusing me and other Greens of attacking you. It’s Greens voters like me who can be bothered to fill out a bit of paper that just helped you get another seat. So glad AJP got in instead of DL too, that’s just glorious lol.

    Penny Wongs recent twitter attack on the Greens has me leaning to NOT give Labor any preference in the senate this election.

  18. Rex

    Give Labor your preference before the LNP and the rest of the right. We want less right in the Senate.

    No matter what you think of Wong’s twitter post.

  19. Penny Wongs recent twitter attack on the Greens has me leaning to NOT give Labor any preference in the senate this election.

    12-year-olds can’t vote.

    Sorry, you’re an adult? And you write dumb, childish shit like that?

  20. Firefox @ #474 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 12:43 pm

    “David Leyonhjelm misses out on a NSW upper house seat!”

    Oh that’s just so awesome! So funny after he claimed victory a couple of weeks ago too. What a fool. I bet Sarah Hanson-Young is having a good chuckle to herself right about now hehe.

    Aside from that, it demonstrates what I was saying about preferences being vital. Someone on here (one of the rusted on Labor trolls) was telling me that preferences were pointless. I made sure I prefrenced both Animal Justice and Labor after voting 1 Greens. You Labor lot should remember that when you’re accusing me and other Greens of attacking you. It’s Greens voters like me who can be bothered to fill out a bit of paper that just helped you get another seat. So glad AJP got in instead of DL too, that’s just glorious lol.

    This is funny after having your little Green mate max huffing and puffing about withholding his preferences from Labor.

  21. Greg the ‘Lyin Hunt was true to his monicker today, sprouting ‘Health Department costings’ to poo poo Labor’s cancer policy. Prompting this response from the department..

    “The Department does not cost Opposition policies and has not received any request to do so.

    In relation to the current issue, the Government did ask the Department prior to the commencement of the caretaker period to firstly; identify all MBS cancer items that have the sole or primary purpose of the diagnosis, treatment or management of cancer (of which there are approximately 420) and secondly; the cost of increasing these items to match the current AMA scheduled fee.

    The figure of $6.8 billion over the forward estimates represents the volume of current service items increased to the AMA rates. A response was provided prior to the commencement of the caretaker period.

    The Secretary has written to the Shadow Minister for Health today in response to her questions about the issue.”

  22. EGW
    EGW
    Of course, this is the internet not a grammar class – be kind.

    kayjay
    I don’t think OH will recover until Morrison is ‘over the hill and far away’.
    He disliked Abbott but always knew what Abbott was – Morrison is a different beast. OH can’t handle the pseudo ‘everyman’ persona.
    BTW – he had a good chortle at your Daily Telegraph story.

  23. Rex Douglas
    says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 12:30 pm
    Bill Shorten looks a bit stroppy today in this presser. Is he starting to crack ?

    Calling it “stroppy” is a stroppy interpretation. Are you starting to crack?

  24. Swamprat,

    I don’t think her carer should have had a dog if she could not have stopped that.

    She rescued the dog as a 3-month pup from a breeding farm. She was apoarently in a terrible state, befouled, flea-ridden, starving. The dog just grew and grew physically, becoming an amost perfect physical specimen, but unfortunately regressed mentally. It was like she never grew up. Another way of putting it was “mad as a cut snake”, but always happy and positive, very affectionate.

    She just loved everyone to bits. Almost too much. She never stopped trying to lick you and show affection, despite going to obedience school at great expense. A 45 kilo dog that never rests can become tiring for all concerned after a while.

    Then, about 6 weeks ago, the behaviour suddenly became more concerning and irrational. She had gone insane.

    The owner loved her, and tried her very best, but it was no use.

  25. “David Lleyonholm will probably now run for the Senate again – now he is unburdened by a seat in the LC”

    Probably, but it will be much harder for him to get back into the Senate now. The new Senate reforms to stop the micro party prefrence whispering should come into play this election. No DD half quota this time either. He had a much better chance in NSW. The only thing that may save him is if he gets very lucky again and appears ahead of the Liberals on the ballot and takes votes from confused Libs. Even then he’d still be pushing it up a very steep hill.

  26. BH @ #486 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 12:54 pm

    EGW
    EGW
    Of course, this is the internet not a grammar class – be kind.

    kayjay
    I don’t think OH will recover until Morrison is ‘over the hill and far away’.
    He disliked Abbott but always knew what Abbott was – Morrison is a different beast. OH can’t handle the pseudo ‘everyman’ persona.
    BTW – he had a good chortle at your Daily Telegraph story.

    I am in lockstep with lizzie on grammatical abominations being used by those who should know better.

  27. Question @ #486 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 12:55 pm

    Rex Douglas
    says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 12:30 pm
    Bill Shorten looks a bit stroppy today in this presser. Is he starting to crack ?

    Calling it “stroppy” is a stroppy interpretation. Are you starting to crack?


    Rex you are scraping the bottom of the trash barrel now. Do some more ‘research’ and lift your game.

  28. Rex

    To be clear. We want as many Labor and Green Senators we can get. Its going to be tight and I want One Nation to be irrelevant

  29. Firefox @ #488 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 12:57 pm

    “David Lleyonholm will probably now run for the Senate again – now he is unburdened by a seat in the LC”

    Probably, but it will be much harder for him to get back into the Senate now. The new Senate reforms to stop the micro party prefrence whispering should come into play this election. No DD half quota this time either. He had a much better chance in NSW. The only thing that may save him is if he gets very lucky again and appears ahead of the Liberals on the ballot and takes votes from confused Libs. Even then he’d still be pushing it up a very steep hill.

    – If his political career is not over I WILL propose to both Nath and Rex on the same day !!. Of course I would have to talk it over with my wife first.

  30. PO @12:29. “The final tally in NSW LC is LNP 17, ALP 14, GRN 4, AJP 2, ON 2, SFF 2, CDP 1.”

    I see Animal Justice as quasi-Greens
    CDP are basically religious right wing Liberals
    On past form one or both One Nation members will quickly resign to sit as independents
    That leaves SFF, probably mostly supporting the Coalition. Like Nationals but without the miners or agribusiness.

  31. guytaur @ #491 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 12:57 pm

    Rex

    To be clear. We want as many Labor and Green Senators we can get. Its going to be tight and I want One Nation to be irrelevant

    Why are you pushing Labor ??

    Have you seen their cowardice re asylum seekers – their ignorance of newstart – their waste re submarines – their inaction re indigenous affairs….. ??

  32. So if Bill is quietly spoken he is dull and boring and a hopeless leader, disliked by everyone. If he fires up in defence of his policies and his team, he is ‘stroppy’, disliked.

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