Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The first published opinion poll of the campaign records no change in Labor’s modest yet decisive lead.

The Australian brings us a second Newspoll in consecutive weeks, perhaps portending weekly results from now to the election. It shows no change from last week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead, but both major parties are up on the primary vote – Labor by two and the Coalition by one, leaving them tied on 39%. The Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are, interestingly, down two to 4%. All we are told of the leaders’ ratings at this stage is that they are “virtually unchanged”. Scott Morrison is unchanged on 45% approval and up one to 44% disapproval; Bill Shorten is unchanged on both measures, at 37% and 51%; and preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged, at 46-35 in favour of Morrison. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. “Equally evident is that the Coalition has NOT learned a bloody thing.”

    Like the ancient bourbons – they have learned nothing, forgotten nothing.

  2. “Also, perhaps it is just my perception, it appears Shorten has a deliberated plan to let Morrison have first crack at a presser each day and then he and his team come in over the top and talk about labor policy and keep it in focus as he responds to the Morrison attack lines of the day which are all about, you quested it !, labor policy.”

    Oh Yeah. 🙂 ALP seem to have a pretty good strategy in play which i suspect they have been wargaming since Morrison became PM. Really interesting the way its come together and the use of the “Team” in appropriate roles. How they have integrated Kennealy into it in a way that exploits her strengths is very slick.

  3. Doyley

    The Presser sounded like one you expect in the last week of the campaign.

    The defence of stuff ups. Preference questions and the expected numbers in the House.

  4. One thing I do think the ALP need to learn is to not schedule their pressers near the hour or the half hour. The ABC always cuts them off so they can put their ads on and then the next bulletin.

  5. Morrison having an interesting morning in Melbourne. Ties himself up in knots talking about 7ft 2in Collingwood forward Mason Cox riding Winx and then goes to a Deakin Presser with candidate Michael Sukkar who doesn’t get to answer questions about his choice in the Leadership Spill (Dutton).

    Then finishes off by refusing to nominate an AFL team to barrack for.

    Melbourne is badlands for Morrison!

  6. https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/lifestyle/relationships/kate-iselin-millennials-are-having-less-sex-than-ever-heres-why/news-story/26130d1a2994de62fc2ef6f2d8a32886
    https://outline.com/7n662k

    Just when the idea that The Daily Telegraph was cover to cover garbage – ✨ enlightenment ✨.

    I have had a couple of dreadful occurrences when awakened from a deep sleep while the TV was on.

    The first was the gigantic maw of 🦈 jaws 🦈 – frightened me scale 7.

    The last one was awakened to view 👿 Mr. Morrison 👿 burbling about summat – scale 8.
    I guess I need to set my bedroom TV to auto turn off with no movement detected.

  7. Bree @ #407 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 11:26 am

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election-2019/federal-election-2019-labor-mp-josh-wilson-under-fire-for-israeli-checkpoint-comments-ng-b881168395z

    Another Labor politician caught out making anti-Israel remarks. Why do so many in Labor hate the only stable democracy in the Middle East, Israel and instead support Islamist Palestine. Jewish voters will punish Labor and elect the Liberal Party in Melbourne Ports.

    Bollocks !! That is no more than the pro Conservative newspaper and 7 News trying to smear another local MP as “anti-Israel” when in fact they are calling out inhumane treatment of people. Israel is not immune to inhumane acts any more than anyone else.

  8. According to The West Australian, the biggest issue this election is attitudes towards Israel. Now 2 front pages in 3 days attacking ALP candidates over their stance in Israel. Ridiculous.

  9. The Coalition just can’t resist the red-headed siren’s call, no matter what they say publicly:

    The wild card factor in Petrie could be Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. The right-wing minor party is running a candidate – Indian migrant Nik Aai Reddy – and Mr Howarth is well aware that his fate may lie on the hands of Senator Hanson and her how-to-vote cards.

    “I’ve always treated One Nation well,” he says. “I hope they do give us the preferences because we need those.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/the-battle-for-petrie-labor-smells-blood-but-one-nation-could-be-kingmakers-20190414-p51e1b.html

  10. You’ve got to wonder why Morrison would hold a presser in Deakin where the creepy Sukkar has a buffer of 6.4%. Not only was the presser a train-wreck, but it’s also fairly apparent that the Tories are in trouble in, not only in Deakin but in wider Victoria.

  11. Bree @ #407 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 11:26 am

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election-2019/federal-election-2019-labor-mp-josh-wilson-under-fire-for-israeli-checkpoint-comments-ng-b881168395z

    Another Labor politician caught out making anti-Israel remarks. Why do so many in Labor hate the only stable democracy in the Middle East, Israel and instead support Islamist Palestine. Jewish voters will punish Labor and elect the Liberal Party in Melbourne Ports.

    So the correct Bree approved position is to hate Palestinians and support the oppression of them, including the theft of their land?

  12. Mavis Davis @ #411 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 11:34 am

    You’ve got to wonder why Morrison would hold a presser in Deakin where the creepy Sukkar has a buffer of 6.4%. Not only was the presser a train-wreck, but it’s also fairly apparent that the Tories are in trouble in, not only in Deakin but in wider Victoria.

    They face an outstanding ALP candidate in Deakin, Shireen Morris.

    Shireen Morris, Labor’s candidate for Deakin, grew up in North Ringwood and lives in Nunawading. She was born in Australia, and is of Indian and Fijian-Indian heritage. As a young person, Shireen worked at the old BI-LO in Ringwood and temped as an admin assistant. Through her twenties she worked as an actress and singer, performing Shakespeare in the Botanic garden, plays, singing in bands and songwriting.

    Shireen later studied to be a lawyer and earned a PhD in constitutional law. She spent 7 years as a policy expert and advocate at Cape York Institute, working on Indigenous constitutional recognition and developing the concept of a First Nations body in the Constitution. She is now a postdoctoral fellow at Melbourne University Law School.

    Shireen has published three books. The most recent book, released in July, is Radical Heart: Three Stories Make Us One (MUP). Shireen has also published several academic articles, and is a regular commentator in print and on TV and radio.

  13. Sukkar is the master of the pork barrel.

    He has been giving out fistfulls of dollars for Roads, Surveillance cameras, Sporting Facilities & Anti-Abortion facilities (err I mean pregnancy support locations)…

    There has never been a dollar for a state school, universities, a means of transportation other than cars or for any group that supports the environment. It is very targeted and it gained him a swing last election. This time around he demonstrated his true colours to more of the public here in Deakin with the SSM vote and his support of Dutton. He will not survive…
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/0656667ec2b45d736aa09f7776a5f113?width=1024

  14. Alpha Zero @ #418 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 11:42 am

    Sukkar is the master of the pork barrel.

    He has been giving out fistfulls of dollars for Roads, Surveillance cameras, Sporting Facilities & Anti-Abortion facilities (err I mean pregnancy support locations)…

    There has never been a dollar for a state school, universities, a means of transportation other than cars or for any group that supports the environment. It is very targeted and it gained him a swing last election. This time around he demonstrated his true colours to more of the public here in Deakin with the SSM vote and his support of Dutton. He will not survive…
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/0656667ec2b45d736aa09f7776a5f113?width=1024

    The word I have out of Deakin is that a lot of normally Liberal voting women hate him and will not vote for him. Even Lib women are very unhappy with him.

  15. Clive Palmer agrees to pay unpaid Queensland Nickel workers.
    About bloody time too.
    Mind you I’ll believe it when I see the money in the workers hands in full.

  16. Had Dutton had the numbers (Sukkar can’t count up to 45), Sukkar would have been treasurer.

    I doubt that holding that position that would have saved him from defeat.

  17. Sad day up here as a neighbour’s beautiful 14-month old dog had to be put down today.

    She was going insane, cause unknown, but had been displaying increasingly obsessive, extreme high anxiety behaviour. Vet analysis revealed that her breed – Bull Arab – suffers from in-breeding and consequent brain issues.

    Trouble is the breed is large, strong, exciteable, and can be very aggressive. They are apparently natural killers. Her behaviour was making the likelihood of her attacking someone increasingly likely, according to the vet.

    The latest manifestation was her spending 20 hours per day under the house, running around chasing imaginary rats, or snakes, or whatever she was seeing in her mind’s eye. She had also been killing possums and brush turkeys in industrial numbers. This had been going on, non-stop, every day, for 4 weeks. I witnessed her under the house for an hour last weekend, and came away in tears.

    She really tried to be a good, loving dog. She adored people and loved play. But a dark shadow was coming over her. Lately she began to appear as if she was possessed by demons.

    Vale Ruby. You were beautiful and affectionate. You weren’t a bad dog. You really tried hard. Suffer no more.

  18. “According to The West Australian, the biggest issue this election is attitudes towards Israel. Now 2 front pages in 3 days attacking ALP candidates over their stance in Israel. Ridiculous.”

    Waste of time by the Coalition. The “Jewish Vote” just not a factor in Fremantle and i suspect not as big a factor elsewhere as the Coalition would like to believe. Its a straw that the Coalition will certainly grasp for though.

  19. “Vale Ruby. You were beautiful and affectionate. You weten’t a bad dog. You really tried hard. Suffer no more.”

    Sorry to hear BB. Its hard to have a dog put down, but think the owners have dont the right thing for themselves and the dog. 🙁

  20. “The Coalition just can’t resist the red-headed siren’s call”

    What on earth has her hair colour got to do with anything?

  21. Both sides of politics quite often have “funny” videos that appeal only to their echo chambers.

    It’s instructive as to what the loony right likes to share among themselves and not mean to get out. It’s what they truly believe.

    For an ALP fail – who could forget “The Abbott Family?” A hilarious view if you already agree with the sentiments expressed but as unconvincing as hell if you are undecided…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9fs_6v20Cw

    I think the UK greens really took things to the next level: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2dNEQiHUUo

  22. Imacca, she was physically perfect. It seemed like such a waste. She was so beautiful, but lately almost completely unmanageable. The owner came around clutching her empty lead. Very sad morning.

    The only alternative was drugs and months of live-in retraining at a dog school, with (according to the vet) little chance of success or even improvement, in return for thousands of dollars in investment.

    The owner, one of our new circle of friends here, was devastated. She kept telling us, through tears, that she really loved the dog. She was worried what we were thinking about her; whether she had been callous. Very sad.

  23. That Captain GetUp video is intentionally vile and degrading to the lady concerned.

    It takes a lot upset me, but that insolent, sexist tosh did it.

    Kennard, Newman and Adler must be so proud.

  24. Spray @ #431 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 12:12 pm

    “The Coalition just can’t resist the red-headed siren’s call”

    What on earth has her hair colour got to do with anything?

    Nothing. It’s just a way of making it clear who’s being referred to. If you only had “siren’s call” there, that original remark could have been about anyone/anything.

  25. I’m sitting in McDonalds while my son plays on the play equipment and have been given a free copy of the West.

    Unfortunately the reports that I’ve read on Poll Bludger and elsewhere that the West has given up any semblance of fair, accurate or impartial reporting on the election and are simply a mouthpiece for the L/NP government.

    The front page screams: “Election Exclusive: Labor Stuck in the Middle” then goes on to dedicate the entirity of the front page and about two thirds of pages four and five to some comments that Fremantle MP Josh Wilson made about Israel and Palestine, and have stated he is facing calls for his resignation.

    The shit sheet then uses about half of pages six and seven to attack Labor’s EV policy.

    There is precisely nothing on Liberal policy. What a surprise.

    On page 4, the West declares “The PM sets the dates for debate” and goes on to tell us that “it is understood Mr Morrison privately has a soft spot for WA”. Ok, outside of his political duties, how much time has SloMo spent in WA when he’s spending his own money? Most of the several hundred word “article” parrots L/NP talking points and expresses that Mr Shorten would not commit to Mr Morrison’s unilaterally stated timing for a leaders debate to be held in Perth.

    In the 5 minute election guide the West parrot’s more L/NP talking points. Aparently the looser of the day is Josh Wilson who as attracted calls for his resignation (it doesn’t say from who) over his comments about Israel. The winner is Tanya Plibersek who got a massive reception at the Labor rally yesterday.

    Who won the day according to the West: Scott Morrison. “His speech to the faithful didn’t quite rev up the troops in the same way Bill Shorten’s did, but at least his WA contingent hasn’t stirred up the same trouble that Melissa Parke and Josh Wilson conjured over the delicate issue of Israeli-Palestinian relations. The distraction played straight into ScoMo’s hands over the entire weekend”.

    I’m going to be sick, and I’m going to use my free copy of the West to contain and clean up the mess.

    With all that’s going on it is unbelievable that the West has focused on the absolutely fringe issue of Israel/Palestine.

    They are simply a L/NP mouthpiece and Shorten was right to decline the overtures of Murdoch. Labor need to crack down good and hard on this nations shit sheets after they win government. Canadian truth in reporting laws are long overdue.

  26. Who thought Captain Getup was a worthwhile idea? Political brainstrusts really baffle me sometimes…

    I reckon it was something the Young Libs came up with.

    Nah, I reckon it was the brainchild of some older, grey-haired Lib who probably just recently learned what a meme is.

  27. BB

    I don’t like some of the dog breeding. Your story is one reason why. My sympathies to the owner losing a pet is hard in the best of circumstances which this is not.

    Glad you were there for her

  28. The ‘exactly how much do you love the state of Israel’ stuff is straight out of the US conservative playbook.

    Details/context are irrelevant – it’s something you have to sign up to unequivocally to be considered ‘sound’ by the right. Of course there’s a basis in various evangelical christian theories about the end times, but it has blown out to be much more a totemic, virtue signalling, issue that you can (must) line up on one side against the enemies on the other who support anything to do with a humane settlement with the Palestinians.

    I don’t know how well they can drive the same thing in Australia given how peripheral and clearly irrelevant we are to the situation there, but they’re certainly giving it a red hot go to fire up the tribal outrage.

    I certainly hope it doesn’t become an issue such that we cannot have a moderate, reasonable approach that respects Israel while also doing our (limited) part to promote working towards a future for the Palestinian people.

    Given the recent ‘debate’ about EVs I can’t say I’m hopeful on that front unless the Australian people give the current cretins a right royal boot up the backside.

  29. Would love to agree with you A R, you seem like a decent person. But I’m not convinced.
    There are other ways to identify her.

  30. Alpha Zero.

    Yes, when the overly political try to be funny, it just ends up being cringe-inducing to anyone not in their echo chamber. That’s why 99.9% of all political cartoons (regardless of political lean) are just dumb and awful, and idiotic derogatory nicknames for politicians are terrible and make those who use them seem deranged.

    Let the comedians do the comedy. Stick to politics.

  31. Wayne Swan @SwannyQLD
    3h3 hours ago

    Whenever you hear Morrison talk about recession never forget during the Global Financial Crisis the Liberals did everything they could to try & stop Labor from preventing a recession.

    lizzie
    Thanks for the Swanny tweet.
    I well remember Thomas Paine saying, during the GFC, that his banker mates
    felt dirty after meeting with Turnbull who was complaining that Oz would not go into recession.

    We all know a lot of money can be made during recessions if you have the wherewithal and means to buy others’ downfalls.

  32. That said, in the 1997 SA state election, there was an ad for Labor that poked fun at the Libs, referring to “The SS Olsen” and sung as a shanty to the theme of Gilligan’s Island.

    I only have vague memories of it but I recall it crossing the threshold to being so bad it’s good.

  33. Labor and the left are not winning everywhere. In the NSW Upper House, Coal 17, Shooters 2, One Nation 2 , CDP 1 plus an independent . Labor 14, Greens 3 and 2 Animal Justice. S0 23 -19 to the right.

  34. BB

    “She was also killing possums and brush turkeys in industrial numbers”
    ———————
    Hmmmmm that is appalling. I don’t think her carer should have had a dog if she could not have stopped that.

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