Election minus five weeks

Candidates on both sides of the aisle drop out of contention, Peter Dutton suffers a self-inflicted wound in Dickson, and Shooters Fishers and Farmers rein in their expectations.

Two days in the campaign, and already much to relate:

• Labor’s audacious gambit of running former Fremantle MP Melissa Parke in Curtin has proved short-lived, after a controversy brewed over comments she had made critical of Israel. Parke announced her withdrawal after the Herald Sun presented the Labor campaign with claims she had told a meeting of WA Labor for Palestine that she could “remember vividly” – presumably not from first-hand experience – a pregnant refugee being ordered to drink bleach at a Gaza checkpoint. Parke is also said to have spoken of Israel’s “influence in our political system and foreign policy”, no doubt bringing to the party hierarchy’s mind the turmoil that has lately engulfed the British Labour Party in relation to such matters. In her statement last night, Parke said her views were “well known, but I don’t want them to be a running distraction from electing a Labor government”. James Campbell of the Herald Sun notes the forum was also attended by Parkes’ successor in Fremantle, Josh Wilson.

• Meanwhile, Liberal Party vetting processes have caused the withdrawal on Section 44 grounds of three candidates in who-cares seats in Melbourne. They are Cooper candidate Helen Jackson, who dug her heels in when told her no-chance candidacy required her to abandon her job at Australia Post, so that the integrity of executive-legislative relations might be preserved; Lalor candidate Kate Oski, who is in danger of being Polish; and Wills candidate Vaishali Ghosh, who was, as The Age put it in a report I hope no one from overseas reads, “forced to step aside over her Indian heritage”.

• Peter Dutton has been under fire for his rhetorical overreach against Ali France, the Labor candidate in his marginal seat of Dickson. Dutton accused France, who had her leg amputated after being hit by a car in 2011, of “using her disability as an excuse” for not moving into the electorate. France lives a short distance outside it, and points to the $100,000 of her compensation money she has spent making her existing home fully wheelchair accessible. Labor has taken the opportunity to point to Dutton’s failed attempt from 2009 to move to the safer seat of McPherson on the Gold Coast, where he owns a $2.3 million beachside holiday home, and by all accounts spends a great deal of his time. Dutton refused to apologise for the comments yesterday, while Scott Morrison baselessly asserted that they were taken out of context.

Greg Brown of The Australian reports Robert Borsak, leader of Shooters Fishers and Farmers and one of the party’s state upper house MPs, concedes the party is struggling to recruit candidates, and will not repeat its state election feat of winning seats in the lower house. Nonetheless, it has Orange deputy mayor Sam Romano lined up as its candidate for Calare and plans to run in Eden-Monaro, Parkes and possibly New England. This follows suggestions the party might pose a threat to the Nationals in Parkes and Farrer, which largely correspond with the state seats of Barwon and Murray, which the party won at last month’s state election. Calare encompasses Orange, which Shooters have held since a November 2016 by-election.

• “I don’t trust our polling at all”, says “a senior federal Liberal MP” cited by John Ferguson in The Australian, apropos the party’s prospects in Victoria. It is not clear if the source was being optimistic or pessimistic, but the report identifies a range of opinion within the Liberal camp extending from only two or three losses in Victoria – likewise identified as a “worst case scenario” by Labor sources – to as many as seven.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,433 comments on “Election minus five weeks”

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  1. Ven @ #442 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 5:19 pm

    BB@4:26pm
    What is wrong with you? You supported Daley’s comments and now you are supporting Tanya P’s comments.
    What about all those foreign companies from USA and UK which opened theie shops here. Why don’t we call that we can’t rely on those Britain company or that American company to brings jobs.

    Ven, I have gained the impression that you are of Indian background and I don’t want to offend. But certain realities need to be recognised.

    My knowledge is based on the IT industry where my first job was with an American company. All the employees I ever met were Australians. And so it was with other foreign companies in Australia.

    Since then, a number of Indian companies have set up in Australia and they rely heavily on offshore labour and their people brought in on 457 type visas. They actively work to displace Australians, including some from Indian backgrounds, from their jobs by encouraging companies to outsource to them.

    This is a vastly different situation to what used to be the norm.

    People can form their own judgement as to the extent it is of any benefit to Australia.

  2. Ven says:
    Saturday, April 13, 2019 at 5:19 pm
    BB@4:26pm
    What is wrong with you? You supported Daley’s comments and now you are supporting Tanya P’s comments.
    What about all those foreign companies from USA and UK which opened theie shops here. Why don’t we call that we can’t rely on those Britain company or that American company to brings jobs.
    ________________________________________

    I think we do these days. I get your sensitivity about describing Adani as an Indian company, although that is what it is front and centre, but the fact is that it would be opposed wherever it came from. Responding to Scomo’s ‘look over there’ trick is just playing into his hands.

    This is particularly the case now where there is no culture of fear about Indian takeover of Australia, as there is about entities that are outgrowths of the Chinese communist party.

    The simple fact is that, as a foreign company, Adani will not give any more of a shit about Australian interests than any other foreign company does. And studiously avoiding calling it ‘Indian’ for fear that it might upset Indians is just pointless, unless you are blatant racist like Morrison or Dutton and want to distract from the ugliness of your own politics.

  3. “Everything but personal commitment.

    Just another gobshite!”

    I was just part of the successful campaign in Ballina to get Tamara Smith re-elected and volunteered many hours of my time towards that effort. Again, that’s why I drive you crazy. We succeeded in defeating your Nats mates. You’re nothing more than an immature right wing troll who completely lacks any substance.

  4. Confessions @ #450 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 5:29 pm

    C@t:

    Were you there in person or watching online? I wondered earlier if Shorten was in C@t Country .

    Moi was in the 3rd row. 😀

    That’s why I have been incommunicado for the last 24 hours. I knew he was coming but I thought that if any protesting types or even worse, Liberals, were reading this blog then they could have turned up to try and spoil things. Not that it was a closed meeting but we wanted to have it open to the general public and not political types. 🙂

  5. BK @ #444 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 5:21 pm

    Someone was asking earlier for information on Morrison’s weird religious beliefs.
    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/february/1548939600/james-boyce/devil-and-scott-morrison
    _______
    Surely anyone seriously taken in by that Pentecostal garbage must have serious questions asked about their sanity.
    And as for being a prime minister . . . .

    Yes, it is totally insane. It should be widely disseminated so that the electorate is aware of just how nutty he is.
    But he is not alone. There are others in the Lib ranks.

  6. Simon² Katich®
    says:
    Saturday, April 13, 2019 at 5:27 pm
    Simon. When have I ever supported returning the government? The last week or so you have turned into a raving ALP nuffty.
    I will leave the first sentence to the chooks. As for raving ALP nuffty, I am a raving anti current Liberal National Coalition. They are a danger to my childrens future.
    _____________________________________
    It wasn’t that long ago that you were saying you didn’t mind my anti-shorten critique because you didn’t like Shorten too much either. Seems things have changed.

  7. Not that it was a closed meeting but we wanted to have it open to the general public and not political types.

    No doubt the meeting was stacked with Labor ‘political types’, sprinkled throughout the crowd, who enthusiastically geed up the rest of the audience by roundly clapping in response to all of Shorten’s answers to questions from the floor.

  8. Given Daleys and Pliberseks poor wording I think it’s time Labor hire a PR firm to properly word the point they are trying to make. These gaffes can be very costly.

  9. Pegasus @ #459 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 5:41 pm

    Not that it was a closed meeting but we wanted to have it open to the general public and not political types.

    No doubt the meeting was stacked with Labor ‘political types’, sprinkled throughout the crowd, who enthusiastically geed up the rest of the audience by roundly clapping in response to all of Shorten’s answers to questions from the floor.

    Unlike The Greens who have all their meetings behind closed doors so they can intimidate and bully the members not a part of the ruling clique.

  10. Firefox @ #453 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 5:32 pm

    “Everything but personal commitment.

    Just another gobshite!”

    I was just part of the successful campaign in Ballina to get Tamara Smith re-elected and volunteered many hours of my time towards that effort. Again, that’s why I drive you crazy. We succeeded in defeating your Nats mates. You’re nothing more than an immature right wing troll who completely lacks any substance.

    Blah! Blah! Blah!

    You give everything but the courage to put yourself on the line.

  11. Yes, it is totally insane. It should be widely disseminated so that the electorate is aware of just how nutty he is.
    But he is not alone. There are others in the Lib ranks.
    _____
    Yes, like that pillar of probity Stuart Robert!

  12. Good on ya BB

    Nice people up there but they are blind to the National’s neanderthal outlook. No hope expecting the young ones to vote differently either. Labor workers try hard but the only joy on election night is when Labor increases its vote in other elecorates.
    Altho I did get a kick out of telling National scrutineers that rudd had won at 6.10pm in 2007. Our daughter rang my mobile and said Laurie Oakes had called it. Some very glum faces in the room after that.
    Now we’re in Hunter so no excitement at all. At least we win.

  13. C@tmomma @ #461 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 5:43 pm

    Pegasus @ #459 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 5:41 pm

    Not that it was a closed meeting but we wanted to have it open to the general public and not political types.

    No doubt the meeting was stacked with Labor ‘political types’, sprinkled throughout the crowd, who enthusiastically geed up the rest of the audience by roundly clapping in response to all of Shorten’s answers to questions from the floor.

    Unlike The Greens who have all their meetings behind closed doors so they can intimidate and bully the members not a part of the ruling clique.

    Not even Labor are stupid enough to send Bill into a potentially hostile ‘town hall’. Of course it was stacked.

  14. Tomorrow’s Insiders will have the Black Wiggle as the interviewee. Stand by for 20 minutes of pious virtue signalling that has no meaningful impact in the real world other than to whip up pollyanna sentiment among the faithful.

    :large

  15. It wasn’t that long ago that you were saying you didn’t mind my anti-shorten critique because you didn’t like Shorten too much either. Seems things have changed.

    Shorten does not float my boat. I was posting Mansiere pics earlier today.

  16. Craig Hill
    ‏@CraigHillNet
    8h8 hours ago

    Reportedly, @PeterDutton_MP’s personal wealth has increased to about $300 million since being appointed Immigration Minister in 2014, and controlling the cash for Manus and Nauru. Probably just a coincidence… #auspol

    Probably just made some advantageous Real Estate plays.

  17. Simon² Katich®
    says:
    Saturday, April 13, 2019 at 5:46 pm
    It wasn’t that long ago that you were saying you didn’t mind my anti-shorten critique because you didn’t like Shorten too much either. Seems things have changed.
    Shorten does not float my boat. I was posting Mansiere pics earlier today.
    ___________________________
    So, you are undermining the image of Shorten and endangering the return of the LNP, same as what you have alleged I am doing.

  18. EGW @ #428 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 4:59 pm

    Someone was asking earlier for information on Morrison’s weird religious beliefs.

    Try this: https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/february/1548939600/james-boyce/devil-and-scott-morrison

    It is seriously weird and scary.

    Seriously – We have had the age of reason* (say 1700) and the scientific method (since at least the 17th century).

    Somebody recently mentioned The Demon Haunted World (one of my favourite books by Carl Sagan).

    And yet, and yet – the weirdness in countries where information has never been so easily accessed is evident all about. If, for instance, one can believe in dead meaning alive then obviously doing good can just as easily mean the opposite.

    Can one still buy Bex or will a Panadol be satisfactory
    together with a good lie down ❓

    Trying to understand the folk in question is trying to see what comes after eternity.

    *What are three key themes from the age of reason?
    The Enlightenment, sometimes called the ‘Age of Enlightenment’, was a late 17th- and 18th-century intellectual movement emphasizing reason, individualism, and skepticism. The Enlightenment presented a challenge to traditional religious views. Enlightenment thinkers were the liberals of their day.

    BTW. I have been quite excited about the images of the monstrous black hole and am pleased to announce that it is a sphere. (Probably obvious to all except me at first glance).

    Goodnight all. TV (rubbish) and sleep. 📺 💤

  19. zalisteggall
    What a day Warringah! From Manly to Mosman to Neutral Bay, we had a great time chatting to you. #vote1zali #warringahvotes #auspol

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BwMBYwpnEz4/

    Those teal green tees Zali’s Angels wear certainly work well for all the beach photos. Abbott’s navy blue looks tired by comparison.

  20. “Blah! Blah! Blah!

    You give everything but the courage to put yourself on the line.”

    Typical response from you completely lacking any substance. You’re pathetic mate. Stop wasting my time.

  21. “Firefox,

    Congratulations on a great effort in Ballina given Tamara had a swing of 4.7% towards her on first preferences.”

    Cheers! We were very glad to see her get back in, she’s been a great local MP who doesn’t take the seat for granted like the Nats always have.

  22. Cat

    So Rex was right. Labor are sensible and stack the meetings. Note that’s not saying it’s closed to the general public. I certainly hope so. I don’t want Mr Shorten answering LNP people all the time.

    I mean LNP party people like we see in QandA who tell us how they stack their audience. 🙂

  23. So, you are undermining the image of Shorten and endangering the return of the LNP, same as what you have alleged I am doing.

    I did? I referenced a post of yours about landcare. A good post, however it reminded me of the cuts this gov have made to environment programs. My post was about that and how people will find any reason to not vote for the ALP.

    You must have posted hundreds of anti Shorten posts. I think, from memory, I have responded to less than 3.

  24. I have given extensive criticism of the present government.

    Remind me. All I can remember is your lame and insincere response to the fact that the present government has wasted tens of billions on a temporary network.

    How about the way the Liberals are fundamentally about selfishness and fear?
    How about the way the Liberals (Federally) just don’t get mass transit?
    How about the way the Liberals have cemented themselves to climate denial?
    How about the way the Liberals having been anti-science in general?
    How about cronyism and corruption? The GBRF? The Murray Darling?

    I could continue. I can scarcely if ever recall you speaking up about the immense difference between Labor and Liberal.

    Instead you peddle trash about Shorten? Why? He killed your firstborn or something? Get over it.
    No one takes you seriously because you really haven’t gotten the fact that its not the leader that matters, its the values of the party and what it will actually do when in office. I can’t recall you talking about the maladministration under Howard, the intellectually dishonest numbers, the waste of good money on selfish wealthy people when the country has a serious infrastructure deficit.

    Well, Nath?

  25. Labor’s Chisholm candidate Jennifer Yang would not be happy with Cat’s overtly vitriolic anti-Greens sentiments. Today at the Blackburn Market she purposely engaged the local Greens in a lengthy conversation at our table/stall. Pleasant civility and cooperation all round as she knows she needs every Greens preferences to win this marginal seat.

  26. Simon² Katich® @ #491 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 5:59 pm

    So, you are undermining the image of Shorten and endangering the return of the LNP, same as what you have alleged I am doing.

    I did? I referenced a post of yours about landcare. A good post, however it reminded me of the cuts this gov have made to environment programs. My post was about that and how people will find any reason to not vote for the ALP.

    You must have posted hundreds of anti Shorten posts. I think, from memory, I have responded to less than 3.

    Pfft. I’ve responded to less than one!

  27. Forget the old Liberal vs Labor thing of the past. That’s dead, buried and cremated.

    The modern day battle is Lib-Lab vs Progressives.

  28. “And congratulations to Janelle Saffin in Lismore, who beat The Greens candidate and The Nationals candidate. ”

    I obviously would have preferred to see Sue Higginson win in Lismore, but I was glad that the Nats ended up losing in the end. Saffin is one of the more likeable Labor people. As a former member for Page she had a big advantage in terms of name recognition too. There was a massive campaign in both Ballina and Lismore to “put the Nationals last” and it worked fantastically well in both cases.

  29. Anyway Simon, say what you want say but don’t direct shit at me. I’m putting this down to the water South Australians are required to drink, Murray River water that we Melbournians wouldn’t piss in. Our water comes from Mountain catchments, protected and filtered by hundreds of thousands of acres of National Parks and then sprinkled with Fairy Dust.

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