BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the final pre-campaign polls added, the poll aggregate records a continuation of the improvement in the Coalition’s position that has been evident for some time, rather than anything that might be called a “budget bounce”.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the three post-budget polls from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, the combined effect of which is to reduce Labor’s two-party lead from 52.9-47.1 to 52.6-47.4. There’s also a fair bit going on within the state breakdowns – in fact, probably too much.

The recovery the Liberals believe they are detecting in New South Wales is well and truly coming through on BludgerTrack, albeit that Labor is still credited with a net gain of two seats there. A significant improvement has also been recorded in the Coalition’s position recently in Western Australia, although here too Labor is credited with a net gain of two seats. What we’re not seeing any sign of is the improved position the Coalition claims to be seeing in Queensland, where reports have suggested they are now hopeful of breaking even by gaining Herbert and limiting the damage in the south-east. BludgerTrack is stubbornly detecting a swing to Labor in the strategically crucial state of over 6%, translating into a gain of nine seats.

I would be a lot more confident of all this if I had more data at state level, which I’m hoping Ipsos might publish in due course – they appeared to have adopted the Newspoll practice last year of publishing quarterly state breakdowns, but we didn’t see one for October-December and are now due one for January-March. I’ve been trying to chase this up and will keep you posted.

Newspoll and Ipsos both provided new data for the leadership ratings, which are now detecting an uptick in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, although the picture remains fairly static on preferred prime minister. All of which you can learn more about through the link below.

TECHNICAL NOTE/APPEAL FOR HELP: I’m hoping those of my readers who know their way around web programming might help me resolve an irritating niggle that’s been bedevilling the BludgerTrack display for some time. Namely, that the state breakdown tabs tend not to work, particularly when the page is first loaded. My own experience is that it requires a hard refresh before they will respond. Tablet users, I am told, can’t even do that well.

Based on my research, it would seem to be that the problem lies with the following bit of Ajax code. If anyone thinks they can offer me any pointers here, please get in touch by email at pollbludger-AT-bigpond-DOT-com.

$(document).ready(function() {
$.ajax({
cache: false,
type: "GET",
url: "bt-output.xml",
dataType: "xml",
success: xmlParser
});
});

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

799 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

  1. BT says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 10:05 pm
    I understand that House members who are not recontesting cease to be House members as soon as the writs are issued.

    That makes sense but what about Ministers who are not recontesting? Even in the caretaker period Ministers can still make decisions (theoretically in consultation with the Opposition).

  2. E.G.

    I was referring to ‘Blessed are those who are persecuted…’ – and at no stage did I suggest Christians should or did seek out martyrdom.

  3. OK you mathematicians out there. Help me out.

    The Treasury Secretary is on $875k a year, apparently on a five year contract. If he is told to not show up for work on May 20th, I assume that the taxpayers will have to pay out 52 months left on the contract. Would that be $3,791,666?

    Now you Canberra types can tell me what pension he will be on after 40 years in and out of the public service (if you call working for the Coalition a service) at the state and federal level. Is it based on your final salary or an average of your past several years.

    Next, if he lives to 80, what would be the total present value of his pension. That would be for 16 years if he is shown the door after the election.

    I understand that prior to his appointment as Secretary he had only worked for a year and a half in the Treasury, spending many years as the chief of staff to Peter Costello and Scott Morrison before being parachuted in to the number two public service post in Canberra last year.

  4. Edi_Mahin: “zoomster is it not against the law for an employers to discriminate against someone for their religious beliefs including in recruitment.”

    As I understand it, Mr. Beattie is the chairman of the ARLC, whereas the prospective employer would be the NRL, a distinct organisation. If that is the case Mr Beattie is not involved in the recruitment process. It is quite likely that someone has asked him to comment and (being now a “relevance deprived” ex-politician*) he gave a cookie-cutter answer.

    * You may note that Ms. Gillard and Mr. Keating—who if I recall correctly coined the phrase “there’s nothing so ex as an ex Prime Minister”—are virtually the only significant ex-politicians who never sufferred from relevance deprivation syndrome, but instead engaged in further and serious contributions (Mr. Keating for sure, and Ms. Gillard hopefully will too)

  5. That makes sense but what about Ministers who are not recontesting? Even in the caretaker period Ministers can still make decisions (theoretically in consultation with the Opposition).

    Ministers are Ministers because they’ve been sworn in as Ministers by the GG, not whether they have a seat in parliament – the GG (on the advice of the PM) can, in principle, swear in anyone as a Minister, MP or not. Yes, the constitution insists that a Minister cannot remain a Minister for more than 3 months without having a seat in parliament, but that’s by-the-by in this case.

    Ministers remain Ministers until the GG is notified that they are not as far as I’m aware.

  6. My grandfather was an ALP member of parliament and relied on crutches to ambulate due to rheumatic fever…the DLP and Libs said he was unfit to serve in the parliament due to his disability…more than 60 years later this crap continues…

  7. More a politics in the pub with that boof head from sky, Paul Murray.
    Zali and the labor bloke declined which left rabbit, a flakey greens candidate and a United Australia nut job to duke it out.

  8. beguiledagain

    It will depend on what super scheme he is in. If he’s in the defined benefit scheme then its an average of the last 3 years. If not it will depend on his contributions.

  9. Henry:

    So a Sky After Dark gig, which I’d argue Steggall and Labor should rightly abstain from given their low viewer numbers.

    Steggall did a Sky After Dawn gig a few weeks ago and wiped the floor with Abbott. For whatever that’s worth.

  10. As predicted the “noise” from “Treasury” has rebounded on this dysfunctional political party and government

    The Liberals have put THEIR figures to their mate in Treasury – and got the outcome they sought

    So, as I said earlier, you never ask a question unless you know the answer

    The fact that the Liberal mate has distanced himself from Ad Man from Mad Men’s carry on is very significant and should bury this “government” without sight and without a whimper

    It is extraordinary that the Treasury Secretary has responded as he has – denying that he had any knowledge of the supposed origin of the data assessed (that is was a costing of the ALP’s policy)

    Staggering stuff, absolutely staggering

    And the most obvious question remains

    IF the economy is so sound why are the Cash Rate and the 10 Year Bond Yield where they are at?

    They are the most accurate assessment that the economy is in dire straights – with GDP trending to negative and you could say, already there

    And another 10,000 jobs to go at CBA – on top of 6,000 at NAB, Telstra savagely cutting and elsewhere

    As confirmed at the Press Club as the latest example, Bowen is most, most competent

    He will be the best Treasurer we have had in 40 years

  11. Boerwar: “What I don’t understand is just when and why God stopped slaying seed spillers.”

    Well the Schofield people would probably say the God issued a new dispensation, superseding the commandments given to Noah (“go forth an multiply”) and Moses

    This is completely wrong, however, and instead people have now evolved a system in which women (such as Tamar) are no longer placed in a position of poverty by the actions (and inactions) of seed spillers. It is a two way street: the ancient Israelites sought a King because it was fashionable in that part of the world. They were warned that it was a foolish mistake, but their request was nevertheless granted. Some learning ensued.

  12. If I was Shorten I would be gluing myself to KK for the entire election campaign. She almost makes him look human, which means she’s doing one hell of a job.

  13. Puffy / Boerwar, regarding ejaculation, ‘Onanism’ and in particular the relative efficiency of sperm versus eggs.

    An interesting property of the Biblical characters is the most of the men turn out to be unwise (e.g. King David was unwise enough to think it was somehow OK to have Uriah murdered so he could add Bathsheba to his bed, which naturally had dreadful consequences) whilst almost all the women (including Tamar who was Onan’s Sister in Law) turn out to be rather wise, particularly in relation to sex. This may reflect the ratio you have calculated.

  14. Burgey: “Check out all these rightards defending Folau’s freedom of speech. The same blokes who hounded a young muslim woman out of the country for a tweet about Anzac Day”

    And now the positions are reversed in various ways, a sort of combination of (the classic Australian phrase) “same shit different arseholes” with “same arseholes different shit”, for various groups of arseholes. The common element is in fact the shit. What a farce!

  15. Bree @ #216 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 9:24 pm

    The Labor party is full of anti-Israel, anti-Semitic, pro-Hamas crazies like Melissa Parke

    Hang on. What exactly are you saying is anti-Semitic and pro-Hamas?

    Is it supporting recognition of Palestine?

    Is it not supporting Israel doing dodgy territory-grabs via its settlements?

    Because neither of those fit either label.

    Labor would present a risk to the Australia-Israel alliance.

    And Australia gets what out of this alliance, exactly? Next you’ll be telling us we should all be gravely concerned about the Australia-Madagascar alliance.

    Rex Douglas @ #239 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 10:09 pm

    I’d hope she’d be above politicising her physical capabilities

    Dutton has already done that for her.

    Also, not the point. The point was that she should let the voters get to know her, and that includes a discussion of her disability, how it came about, and how it impacts her daily life. Because all of that is part of who she is. Which is what makes Dutton’s commentary such a low blow.

    and instead focus on what she can deliver for her constituents.

    She can do both. 🙂

  16. zoomster says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 5:21 pm
    Edi_Mahin

    And there’s nothing wrong with the NRL deciding they don’t want to employ him.

    Zoomster, if a prospective employer decided they didn’t want to employ you because of your online ALP affiliation, you’d be fine with that too?

  17. Peterjk23 @ #67 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 11:32 pm

    if a prospective employer decided they didn’t want to employ you because of your online ALP affiliation, you’d be fine with that too?

    It’s fair enough, and a risk we all take.

    Although also, most of us probably don’t have contracts that include an explicit clause about what sort of public commentary we can and can’t make.

  18. Peter

    It’s happened a couple of times!

    However, with Falau, he was on a contract, which specified what he can/cannot do. As a teacher, I’ve often been on similar. For example, when teaching a Catholic school, I have to sign one saying I won’t speak disrespectfully about the Catholic church. And I’m certainly not allowed to promote the ALP, even when I’m specifically invited into a school to talk about the political system.

  19. PeterJk23: “Zoomster, if a prospective employer decided they didn’t want to employ you because of your online ALP affiliation, you’d be fine with that too?”

    Well obviously Zoomster can speak for herself (EDIT: as she has now done, I see), but I would think that the prospective employer called “the Liberal Party of Australia” (or whatever it is they are called) would indeed be entitled to decide they didn’t want to employ Zoomster on that basis

  20. Roger Miller
    No.
    But that is still my opinion and the opinion of many in the industry.
    ——-
    Many in the industry? Bullshit, ‘some’ at best.

  21. If large public organisations / employers such as the AFL and NRL are allowed to discriminate on the basis of expressed political and/or religious views, then freedom of speech and liberal democracy is a pretty hollow concept. Marginalising someone economically in this way can be far more damaging than legal penalties, especially if it becomes orchestrated like in this case. Perhaps if its a cake shop or mechanic there is an argument for personal choice of the proprietor but these organisations are basically implementing public / government policy as seen by the fact that the NRL spokesman is a former premier and they both are deeply interlinked with the political establishment.

    There seems to be a rapidly encroaching intolerance of dissenting opinion in this country, some examples being the governmental indifference to the persecution of Julian Assange, who has done nothing illegal under Australian law, the hysterical response to the (admittedly stupid) actions of the Vegan protesters, Morrison’s proposal to jail social media executives and now this.

    I don’t share Israel Falau’s beliefs but I’ve known people who do and they sincerely hold them. They believe people are going to hell if they don’t change and so they are trying to warn them. In their mind its just like warning someone that they might be killed if they drink and drive. I thought there were laws against discrimination in employment on the basis of religion? Falau has signed no contract with the ARL so for Beattie to be telling him that he won’t be considered for registration is in breach of the law.

  22. nath says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 11:05 pm

    If I was Shorten I would be gluing myself to KK for the entire election campaign. She almost makes him look human, which means she’s doing one hell of a job.

    Just maybe he is and all your projections are full of shit.

  23. Sky news after darkers are a group of ‘commentators’ who interpret what the public is saying as a help to us.

    Unfortunately, all their sources seem to be out front or behind the scenes L/NP people. So there is never any balance or checking of facts being broadcast. They are not reporters therefore not required to check for correctness or give a right of reply.

    When someone who does not agree with their bosses’ views attends, they are generally rubbished at every opportunity and interrupted continuously when trying to make a point or present a proposition. That’s their interpretation of balanced.

    Come the election, people are invited onto the show in some outdoor setting, usually a pub. This is so the network can boost ratings, increase viewers and therefore sell more advertising.

    They cannot switch from commentator to unbiased moderator.

    The show the other night showed Tony getting plenty of questions from a local wealthy old white audience, a Green candidate who knew her parties position on a wide range of environmental matters and a Clive candidate from a Party with no policies or any in depth knowledge of how it all works.

    There is no reason for every candidate in the Country to front up for a grilling by some biased interviewer trying to line his own pockets and trying to stampede someone on the panel into a ‘gotcha’ situation.

    The wanna be millionaires working for the behind the scenes billionaire. I would not give them the time of day as they would just call me a liar because that was the time last night, then change the subject.

  24. So Dutton goes low because that’s what he heard some people in his electorate were saying.
    Falau goes low because someone wrote something in a book several thousand years ago. Was the writer lying on a hallway covered in his own vomit after a big night out having to get the next article finished for his publisher?
    No matter what the source of the material, you have no right to pass it on if, among other things, it is offensive offensive .
    Imagine what the filly in stall 8 would say if i passed on information about her bathroom habits given to me by the stable boy.

  25. Peter,

    Sportspeople like Falau are idolised by fans and what they say and do can have a direct impact on those fans.

    When he publicly makes these sort of comments it sends a message that there is something wrong with being gay.

    We have thankfully reached a point where as a Society we say, that’s bullshit, there is nothing wrong with being gay.

    On a business level, he is putting the sport’s viability at risk with some sponsors not wanting to be associated with those sort of attitudes and withdrawing their support.

    League has enough of its own problem players, without importing someone else’s, so Beatie’s comments are rational and understandable.

  26. Zoomster why would you want to work in a school that imposed that sort of censorship? One of the reasons I would never lower myself to work in the private system….ugh I feel unclean just thinking about it.

  27. People should go easy on Dutton and his prejudice against human beings with disabilities. The poor guy has had to go through life without any sense of empathy himself. And he had to have his conscience removed to enter Liberal Cabinet.

  28. So the Treasury Secretary is asked to cost a proposal regarding changes to negative gearing, changes to franking credits and add to that figure the cost of removing possible L/NP tax cuts proposed for away in the future.

    Job done, figures given to Treasurer and quoted by Scummo.

    This person did not think for one minute that he was being asked to cost Labor’s changes to negative gearing and franking credits?

    These changes have been in the public domain for over a year and the Treasury Secretary could not put 2 and 2 together? Is he totally unaware of what is being proposed by the main opposition party as we go towards an election? How much are we paying this public servant to diligently carry out the duties of this important office in one of the key Departments of our Nation?

    Surely the Treasurer would not have lied to a Dept Head to try to gain a political advantage over another party to our democracy!! He said there was no mention that it could be costing Labor policy. Is omission of the details regarding this request a lie Mr Treasurer?

    Is this Secretary who is closely linked to Peter Costello and Scummo so biased that he should be removed from his job? Absolutely anything goes with this L/NP Govt and calling in favours for those plum appointments is obviously acceptable.

  29. ‘I also think he should be seen laughing at the nonsense from the Libs and ridiculing it.’

    Something I have advocated myself.
    Only I think someone called me names for my trouble.
    Oh well.

    Yesterday for example, he could have ridiculed Frydemburgers nonsense, and thrown in a quick history lesson, but didn’t….

  30. Same article different headlines.

    In The Conversation, Grattan’s “Frydenberg up to Bowen’s old tricks” changed to “Lesson lost from Bowen error” in The West.

    Subtle isn’t it – omit Frytheplanet from the headline and magically it’s all about Bowen’ mistake.

    So today in The West lovely puff piece on Morrison, nothing on Dutton (surprise surprise) but plenty on Parke. Nothing on the Treasury dishonesty as a news item. Of course yesterday the Government line was big news.

    Oh I nearly forgot, more pics of distraught cafe owners who can’t afford to pay living wages. Diddums.

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