BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the final pre-campaign polls added, the poll aggregate records a continuation of the improvement in the Coalition’s position that has been evident for some time, rather than anything that might be called a “budget bounce”.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the three post-budget polls from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, the combined effect of which is to reduce Labor’s two-party lead from 52.9-47.1 to 52.6-47.4. There’s also a fair bit going on within the state breakdowns – in fact, probably too much.

The recovery the Liberals believe they are detecting in New South Wales is well and truly coming through on BludgerTrack, albeit that Labor is still credited with a net gain of two seats there. A significant improvement has also been recorded in the Coalition’s position recently in Western Australia, although here too Labor is credited with a net gain of two seats. What we’re not seeing any sign of is the improved position the Coalition claims to be seeing in Queensland, where reports have suggested they are now hopeful of breaking even by gaining Herbert and limiting the damage in the south-east. BludgerTrack is stubbornly detecting a swing to Labor in the strategically crucial state of over 6%, translating into a gain of nine seats.

I would be a lot more confident of all this if I had more data at state level, which I’m hoping Ipsos might publish in due course – they appeared to have adopted the Newspoll practice last year of publishing quarterly state breakdowns, but we didn’t see one for October-December and are now due one for January-March. I’ve been trying to chase this up and will keep you posted.

Newspoll and Ipsos both provided new data for the leadership ratings, which are now detecting an uptick in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, although the picture remains fairly static on preferred prime minister. All of which you can learn more about through the link below.

TECHNICAL NOTE/APPEAL FOR HELP: I’m hoping those of my readers who know their way around web programming might help me resolve an irritating niggle that’s been bedevilling the BludgerTrack display for some time. Namely, that the state breakdown tabs tend not to work, particularly when the page is first loaded. My own experience is that it requires a hard refresh before they will respond. Tablet users, I am told, can’t even do that well.

Based on my research, it would seem to be that the problem lies with the following bit of Ajax code. If anyone thinks they can offer me any pointers here, please get in touch by email at pollbludger-AT-bigpond-DOT-com.

$(document).ready(function() {
$.ajax({
cache: false,
type: "GET",
url: "bt-output.xml",
dataType: "xml",
success: xmlParser
});
});

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

799 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

  1. If the bleach story is uncorrobilated, then her standing down is appropriate, otherwise I don’t see the problem.

  2. Max

    Yes agreed.

    Its not what Parkes said that’s out of step. Its the political parties stepping to the right so Israel is not an issue. I say that because Labor sees it as a distraction.

    Understandable when you know the LNP want to label Labor as anti Semitic.

    Reason is not part of the political discourse

  3. I think posters here are getting their knickers in a knot over Parke. I doubt the “ unwashed masses “ will even care. Saturday tomorrow.

    She has resigned. Three liberal candidates have resigned. Dutton refuses to even apologise.

    Good luck to the Tories if they try to score any points out of this.

  4. Could someone comment on different reporting between SMH & Herald Sun on Melissa’s resignation

    I have no answer for that, sorry. But Labor’s policy is the recognition of a two state solution when it comes to Israel & Palestine.

  5. “Could someone comment on different reporting between SMH & Herald Sun on Melissa’s resignation”

    Both are paywalled. I copied the SMH story into Outline and read it. It was pretty much straight up and down, balanced.

    The Herald Sun seems to have found a way to defeat Outline so I couldn’t read it.

  6. An interesting discussion would be, what are the acceptable modes of discourse surrounding the Palestinian issue and how do they vary across party lines in Australia? 2500 words. 40% of unit score.

  7. I can understand Keane’s judgement of ‘who won the day’ – the Liberal party because of the $300bn tax figure publicised over night, but it won’t help them much.

    Howard and Costello could have gotten away with the treasury retraction because they had credibility, but Morrison and Frydenberg have none.
    This was day 2 of the campaign by next week the government’s claim will be forgotten.

    Dutton’s actions today will probably have more impact.

  8. “Is “two state solution” now considered an extreme position? What is the position of the major parties?”

    Labor supports the two state solution.

    The Liberals’ position is unconditional support for the policies and positions of the USA, especially under a Republican administration, which in turn means unconditional support for the policies and positions of Israel.

  9. SO today a journalist gets a red face because he believed the s#*@ coming out of Scrott’s anterior orifice ……..question; Will this make journalists any more likely to fact check the LNP pronouncements for the remainder of the campaign? Discuss.

  10. Vic, phoenixRed, C@t and others. Are we surprised? Malcolm Nance has been banging on about this for ages now. Hopefully Bernie Bros get a clue this time around.

    After Bernie Sanders lost his primary campaign for president against Hillary Clinton in 2016, a Twitter account called Red Louisiana News reached out to his supporters to help sway the general election. “Conscious Bernie Sanders supporters already moving towards the best candidate Trump! #Feel the Bern #Vote Trump 2016,” the account tweeted.

    The tweet was not actually from Louisiana, according to an analysis by Clemson University researchers. Instead, it was one of thousands of accounts identified as based in Russia, part of a cloaked effort to persuade supporters of the Vermont senator to elect Trump. “Bernie Sanders says his message resonates with Republicans,” said another Russian tweet.

    While much attention has focused on the question of whether the Trump campaign encouraged or conspired with Russia, the effort to target Sanders supporters has been a lesser-noted part of the story. Special counsel Robert S. Mueller III, in a case filed last year against 13 Russians accused of interfering in the U.S. presidential campaign, said workers at a St. Petersburg facility called the Internet Research Agency were instructed to write social media posts in opposition to Clinton but “to support Bernie Sanders and then-candidate Donald Trump.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-the-russian-effort-to-target-sanders-supporters–and-help-elect-trump/2019/04/11/741d7308-5576-11e9-8ef3-fbd41a2ce4d5_story.html?utm_term=.1c083179f1c7

  11. The research is that voters do not comprehend numbers in the billions. They are meaningless, especially when spread over a long period. People can interpret smaller sums….a few hundred thousand on a school, for example….or a few thousand on a vehicle. These are within the range of most people’s experience and are intelligible. The claims about Labor’s taxes are just poli-babble. They are read as hyperbowl…

  12. Voter compass no surprise for me, slightly left of Labor. A voter they could get a first preference senate vote out of if they didn’t spend time pissing off Labor voters.

  13. Each day Dutton dominates discussion is a good day for me. Especially when he is attacking the disability of a person.

    Candidate drop outs at this stage are normal. Vic Labor had a candidate drop out in seat of Bayswater days before nominations closed but end up winning the seat unexpectedly.

    Murdoch/LNP attack line on tax is as expected. I would say that’s priced in.

  14. What always gets me about the Israel/Palestine issue is why it rates a mention at all in Australian elections. And I don’t mean from an “It doesn’t rate with voters” argument but rather why the position of an Australian MP on this issue matters much at all. I get that Australia still has UN votes etc. and, yes, it’s good politics to pander to Jewish or Palestinian voters but I don’t think the major actors in the ongoing situation are too preoccupied with what the MP for South-Somewhere-In-Australia’s take on the issue is, let alone what our government thinks (TBH.)

    Then again, I remember seeing NUS delegates waste hours of their annual National Conference’s time debating policy on the issue and I am sure that the position of student politicians is even more irrelevant to everyone else, so who knows?

  15. For the rest of the campaign any attempt by the government to throw “ Treasury modelling “ up as part of a attack on labor will be met with Bowen, Chalmers et al waving todays treasury rebuttal in their face.

    A campaign long gift for labor.

    Remember as well it was Morrison who declared yesterday the election was all about trust.

    Cheers.


  16. Desert Qlder says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 9:00 pm

    Endless discussion on religion or pointless ozzie rules updates.

    What’s more dreary on poll bludger?

    You want another round of Rudd/Gillard?

  17. Dog’s Breakfast @ #714 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 8:41 pm

    SO today a journalist gets a red face because he believed the s#*@ coming out of Scrott’s anterior orifice ……..question; Will this make journalists any more likely to fact check the LNP pronouncements for the remainder of the campaign? Discuss.

    fact check? lololololol

  18. Briefly
    “The research is that voters do not comprehend numbers in the billions. They are meaningless, especially when spread over a long period…
    The claims about Labor’s taxes are just poli-babble. They are read as hyperbowl…”

    True. The $387 billion might as well have been $387 thousand trillion. However, the claim that it cost $5,000 per household would be more telling, even though it’s all crap. How many Daily Rupert readers get franking credits, are high income earners, use family trusts or own negatively geared properties?

    Anyway, it’s lies, of course. Not only are the figures dodgy, there are no new taxes, just keeping the status quo plus removing unreasonable and ultimately unsustainable subsidies and concessions.

  19. The Labor party is full of anti-Israel, anti-Semitic, pro-Hamas crazies like Melissa Parke and more will be exposed. Labor would present a risk to the Australia-Israel alliance.

  20. briefly,

    Spot on post.

    That is why I think labor was more interested in establishing Treasury did not model labor policy despite what Morrison was saying rather than the quantum.

    Morrison and Frydenberg have now been exposed as liars by Treasury itself.

    That is gold for labor in a election campaign Morrison has decided to base on “ who do you trust .”

    Cheers.

  21. Briefly

    The LNP want to launch an anti Semitic campaign against Labor. It’s interesting to note the usually very vocal Greens are saying nothing about this.

    So far.

  22. Mahin

    “They are Israel Folau’s religious beliefs. There is nothing wrong with being anti-homosexuality if God is anti-homosexuality.”

    And you know this, how? Did God tell you?

  23. What Parkes has said is largely correct but I suppose labor does not need the distraction. Not sure why she bothered contesting the seat in the first place that said. Tory stronghold. Put a kid in as the candidate for the experience.

  24. Labor would present a risk to the Australia-Israel alliance.

    There is no such alliance. Generally, Australian relations with Israel have had a bipartisan flavour. This has been affirmed today. The party that has departed from the usual bi-partisan approach is the Liberals, who’ve tried to use Israeli politics to sway Jewish voters from voting against Liberal candidates.

  25. Melissa Parke should run as a progressive Independent.

    I’m available to manage her campaign.

    I urge Melissa to contact me ASAP !

  26. Today I walked past the electorate office of Gai Brodtman, member for Canberra. Gai is not contesting the next election and the seat will become Bean under the redistribution.

    I noticed that her name had been removed from signage on the building exterior although “Member for Canberra” remained.

    I had assumed that Gai would remain the member until the election, in fact all MPs would whether they were recontesting or not.

    Does anyone know why her name would have been covered up on the signage?

  27. Zali steggal doing herself no favours by avoiding the Warringa candidate forum tonight. Apparently it was a clusterfuck but she should have been there.

  28. briefly @ 9.41pm

    Are you picking up much reaction in your door knocking to Mr Shorten’s Medicare cancer policy?

    I spoke this week to an old friend whose wife, also an old friend, has been dealing with breast cancer, and he said they had had to spend thousands of dollars beyond what insurance covered, and he didn’t really know how poorer people could hope to cover such costs.

    I’d have thought it should be going down well because almost everyone who hasn’t had cancer knows someone who has, more so as you get older. And it also highlights that government spending isn’t all bad: it’s one thing to imply, as the coalition does, that any extra tax people pay will be wasted, and another thing entirely to say that it will cover the cost of cancer treatment.

    Anyway, interested in your take on this. (And thanks also for your regular insights from your door knocking, which I always read with interest.)

  29. For all it’s worth my elderly in-laws have brought the cancer package of Labor during a regular conversation. The TV was muted but the news report was covering Labor’s policy. These are not political people but it definitely got their attention.

  30. citizen @ #738 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 9:50 pm

    Today I walked past the electorate office of Gai Brodtman, member for Canberra. Gai is not contesting the next election and the seat will become Bean under the redistribution.

    I noticed that her name had been removed from signage on the building exterior although “Member for Canberra” remained.

    I had assumed that Gai would remain the member until the election, in fact all MPs would whether they were recontesting or not.

    Does anyone know why her name would have been covered up on the signage?

    To provide clear air for her replacement?
    Can’t think of any other reason.

  31. The challenge: Your the Labor press team; come up with a better way off letting the electorate know that the Labor candidate lost her leg saving her kid or was it kids.

    Easy. She makes a speech before the press corps and/or at a campaign rally. Televised live, preferably.

    She starts by recounting the story of how she lost her leg. Demonstrates the prosthetic device that she wears, removes it, and climbs unassisted into the wheelchair she uses at home, explaining as she goes about how she needs a home that can accommodate her wheelchair. Then she can talk about how many suitably accessible homes are currently available for sale or rent within the electorate (this should be zero). And add a point about how much time and money it takes to convert an existing home, and (quite optionally) a promise to do so anyways should she win.

    No need to even mention Dutton. He’ll come out looking like a dick anyways.

  32. A R @ #706 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 9:58 pm

    The challenge: Your the Labor press team; come up with a better way off letting the electorate know that the Labor candidate lost her leg saving her kid or was it kids.

    Easy. She makes a speech before the press corps and/or at a campaign rally. Televised live, preferably.

    She starts by recounting the story of how she lost her leg. Demonstrates the prosthetic device that she wears, removes it, and climbs unassisted into the wheelchair she uses at home, explaining as she goes about how she needs a home that can accommodate her wheelchair. Then she can talk about how many suitably accessible homes are currently available for sale or rent within the electorate. And add a point about how much time and money or takes to convert an existing home, and (quite optionally) a promise to do so anyways should she win.

    No need to even mention Dutton. He’ll come out looking like a dick anyways.

    I’d hope she’d be above politicising her physical capabilities and instead focus on what she can deliver for her constituents.

    Voters are crying out for selfless politicians.

  33. zoomster: ” (quoting me) ‘That has never been the main game in Christianity and largely went out in the fourth century.’

    I hope someone has told Jesus – he’d better do a rewrite —”

    Jesus was not a martyr in any conventional sense, and in fact the Cross is why Christianity does does not advocate martyrdom for Christians, whilst of course revereing many of those who have had martyrdom thrust upon them (largely during the 1st to 4th centuries)

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