BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the final pre-campaign polls added, the poll aggregate records a continuation of the improvement in the Coalition’s position that has been evident for some time, rather than anything that might be called a “budget bounce”.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the three post-budget polls from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, the combined effect of which is to reduce Labor’s two-party lead from 52.9-47.1 to 52.6-47.4. There’s also a fair bit going on within the state breakdowns – in fact, probably too much.

The recovery the Liberals believe they are detecting in New South Wales is well and truly coming through on BludgerTrack, albeit that Labor is still credited with a net gain of two seats there. A significant improvement has also been recorded in the Coalition’s position recently in Western Australia, although here too Labor is credited with a net gain of two seats. What we’re not seeing any sign of is the improved position the Coalition claims to be seeing in Queensland, where reports have suggested they are now hopeful of breaking even by gaining Herbert and limiting the damage in the south-east. BludgerTrack is stubbornly detecting a swing to Labor in the strategically crucial state of over 6%, translating into a gain of nine seats.

I would be a lot more confident of all this if I had more data at state level, which I’m hoping Ipsos might publish in due course – they appeared to have adopted the Newspoll practice last year of publishing quarterly state breakdowns, but we didn’t see one for October-December and are now due one for January-March. I’ve been trying to chase this up and will keep you posted.

Newspoll and Ipsos both provided new data for the leadership ratings, which are now detecting an uptick in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, although the picture remains fairly static on preferred prime minister. All of which you can learn more about through the link below.

TECHNICAL NOTE/APPEAL FOR HELP: I’m hoping those of my readers who know their way around web programming might help me resolve an irritating niggle that’s been bedevilling the BludgerTrack display for some time. Namely, that the state breakdown tabs tend not to work, particularly when the page is first loaded. My own experience is that it requires a hard refresh before they will respond. Tablet users, I am told, can’t even do that well.

Based on my research, it would seem to be that the problem lies with the following bit of Ajax code. If anyone thinks they can offer me any pointers here, please get in touch by email at pollbludger-AT-bigpond-DOT-com.

$(document).ready(function() {
$.ajax({
cache: false,
type: "GET",
url: "bt-output.xml",
dataType: "xml",
success: xmlParser
});
});

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

799 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

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  3. UComm survey on federal voting intention just now.

    Me in Freo W.A. Got it on my landline.

    short and direct. 🙂

    Who gets 1st preference in HoR
    Who gets 1st preference in Senate
    Whats my suburb Inner Metro, Outer Metro……blah..blah
    Age
    Gender

  4. Boerwar @ #650 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 7:42 pm

    ‘PuffyTMD says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 8:11 pm

    Clem Attlee
    Impossible as it is, I want to come back as my dog. The little blighters lived the best life.’

    But you might not be there to love yourself, and then where would you be?

    Yes, exactly my problem. Some sort of time warp is needed.

  7. “Second challenge: How do you thank Dutton for his efforts in the hope he delivers again.”

    Help him into a quiet retirement as soon as possible. 🙂

  8. The next question.
    Choose the easiest to answer.

    How many angels can dance on the pointy end of a pin?
    Or
    Where is Dutton’s heart?

  9. Comrades, the pin is a truk.
    There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever that angels have ever danced, would even want to dance, or could dance even if they wanted to.

  13. I read a book which said that angels didn’t really appear until late in the old testament period when judaism became radically monotheistic. If you have a god who is omnipotent and universal he doesn’t really have time for one-on-ones with lowly humans. So angels made their appearance as intermediaries.

  14. EGW

    Many here think the case was “Someone or other Vs Norvill.” She was really an innocent bystander to
    what the Telegraph did, and Rush’s response.IMHO the judge made the correct call, finding that the Telly could not prove the truthfulness of what they published.

    This is 101% unsurprising, given that Ms Norvill had years earlier decided not to take any action. And one reason (often the main reason) is fear of not being believed.

    Factors which led her to that decision would usually include that:
    1. Sexual assault is often at close quarters and hidden from others actually present (evidence in the Child Abuse RC from several cases was that assaults took place furtively with others present but unaware)
    2. Or it is private and away from others’ eyes and ears
    3. Cases are often reduced to he said/she said
    4. Further abuse by the judicial system occurs
    5. Stats show a low conviction rate
    6. Fear and anxiety she had about disclosing and the consequences
    7. Misplaced guilt that she, the victim, somehow causatively contributed to the event

    It is possible that Ms Norvill did not take action for such reasons and because she knew that probitively speaking, she did not have a strong case and would be disbelieved, even though she told the truth.

    Nevertheless the PB jury has still done a job on her over the past 24 hours.

  15. It must be time for Dutton to shoot himself in the foot again. We are getting bored. Come-on, Duts, you can do it.

  20. Let anyone who believes absolutely in free speech, (and that the target chooses to be offended), turn up at their workplace early Monday with a big sign such as “Fred Nerk, my boss , defrauds the ATO” or even “Fred Nerk’s wife sleeps around with employees” and see how long they remain employees.

    You can’t say anything you want, without consequences, and never has it been so. Only the consequences have varied over time.

  21. BK @ #661 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 8:20 pm

    19 minutes and one goal so far in Pies v Dogs.
    _____
    You’d hardly describe the game as a showcase!

    —
    Mate its got me in a coma already and I am a Pies supporter. God help us. Maybe Gooey will put a clinic, oops he missed again. Reminds me oF Daicos, gets the impossible misses the easy ones. lol.

  22. Been watching ABC News all day and in their interviews across Australia every person has indicated either a vote for the Tories or a ‘they’re all the same’ comment. It’s their ABC.

  25. guytaur

    I scored 91% green, 66% labor, but what shocked me was I still got one nation 30%.

    Apparently I agree with one nation that penalty rate cuts should be reversed (so does labor and the greens). I also agree with one nation that there should be lots more restrictions on coal seam gas (along with the greens). And I agree with one nation over euthanasia. And for all that, I get a 30% affinity?

  26. antonbruckner11 says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 8:21 pm

    I read a book which said that angels didn’t really appear until late in the old testament period when judaism became radically monotheistic. If you have a god who is omnipotent and universal he doesn’t really have time for one-on-ones with lowly humans. So angels made their appearance as intermediaries.

    If doG was omnipotent and universal, why wound it need angels?

  27. Psyclaw, that is nonsense as defamation law would come into play. Forlau didn’t defame anyone. Nice try…. next!

  28. Melissa Parkes: Why wasn’t this fixed before the election was called?

    I have no opinion whatsoever on Israel and Palestine. Both are run by bastards who do not care if kids are killed. They both get my condemnation.

  30. Melissa Park:

    “It is understood Melissa Parke withdrew her candidacy after reports she told a group of pro-Palestinian activists last month that Australia should recognise a Palestinian state and that Israel’s settlements were akin to China’s island building activity in the South China Sea.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/melissa-parke-quits-as-labor-s-curtin-star-candidate-over-israel-remarks-20190412-p51dqz.html

    On recognition of a Palestinian State, that would be premature in my opinion, a fifth order issue for Australia, but there is a strong case for recognition. On the second, about China’s islands, spot on, except that China isn’t displacing people to build its islands.

    Of course our mendacious Government, supported by the Murdochracy, would accuse her of anti-Semitism. It is not anti Semitic to say that Israel is less than an exemplary global citizen. Nor is is it anti Semitic to say that Benjamin Netanyahu is a crook and a thug, which he is (although Ms Parke didn’t say that as far as I know).

  33. CC

    Yeah I got similar.

    I only did it because of the One Nation comment I saw.

    I put a lot of 0’s when specifically asked about One Nation

  37. Candidates are dropping all over the place. Libs lose three in Victoria, and Labor lose a Curtin candidate with radical views. Wished she had stayed, may have cancelled out Dutton’s mess.

  38. Great. Now this is not only going to make Labor look disorganised but it’s going to trigger a fresh round of intra-left infighting.

    No more of this shit please. Let’s cannibalise each other when we’re in power, not opposition. The worst-off can’t afford another three years of the current direction of things.

  40. Thanks Steve777.

    “It is understood Melissa Parke withdrew her candidacy after reports she told a group of pro-Palestinian activists last month that Australia should recognise a Palestinian state and that Israel’s settlements were akin to China’s island building activity in the South China Sea.”

    This isn’t Labor policy as I understand it, so can appreciate the big no-no as a result of deviating from the endorsed policy position. Then again, she’s running in Curtin which Labor has no hope of winning. I can understand the party wanting zero distractions however.

  41. Let’s cannibalise each other when we’re in power, not opposition.

    Or not ever unless it’s at national and state conferences.

  42. Melissa Parke withdrawal

    Interesting the SMH article doesn’t mention the bleach incident reported in the Herald Sun article

    LABOR CANDIDATE SUNK BY ISRAEL CLAIM
    A high-profile Labor candidate quit on Friday night after being slammed by outraged Jewish community groups over her claim Israeli officials at a checkpoint in Gaza forced a pregnant Palestinian woman to drink a bottle of bleach

    Strange omission by SMH if true .. was the comment actually made?

  44. Melissa Parkes’ views sound pretty unobjectionable to me. Sad that holding forthright opinions is seen as making someone unelectable. In so-called liberal democracies we seem to have lost the ability to accept that other people can legitimately hold opinions that are different from ours without getting upset about it.

  45. Now you see her now you don’t. MPs have less freedom of expression than their electors….one of the perversities

  47. Or not ever unless it’s at national and state conferences.

    We’re talking about the left of centre here. I’ll take anything I can get.

  48. I can hear Rex sprinting to his computer, hurriedly logging into this site already formulating his “Labor = Netanyahu” or “Labor is ejecting all of its progressives” talking points in his head.

  49. On ABC News Karvellas’ show, there is that Liberal bloke who lost Hawthorn, sounds like Italian ham lol against some no name Labor guy, who is hopeless. Some backroom character. Why do labor allow these types on. The Tory is killing him. Maiden doing her best to spin everything the Tories way. Very hard to watch.

  50. Melissa Parke has resigned over her remarks. Decisive action by Labor.

    Peter Dutton still hanging around.

    Pretty stark contrast.

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