BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the final pre-campaign polls added, the poll aggregate records a continuation of the improvement in the Coalition’s position that has been evident for some time, rather than anything that might be called a “budget bounce”.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the three post-budget polls from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, the combined effect of which is to reduce Labor’s two-party lead from 52.9-47.1 to 52.6-47.4. There’s also a fair bit going on within the state breakdowns – in fact, probably too much.

The recovery the Liberals believe they are detecting in New South Wales is well and truly coming through on BludgerTrack, albeit that Labor is still credited with a net gain of two seats there. A significant improvement has also been recorded in the Coalition’s position recently in Western Australia, although here too Labor is credited with a net gain of two seats. What we’re not seeing any sign of is the improved position the Coalition claims to be seeing in Queensland, where reports have suggested they are now hopeful of breaking even by gaining Herbert and limiting the damage in the south-east. BludgerTrack is stubbornly detecting a swing to Labor in the strategically crucial state of over 6%, translating into a gain of nine seats.

I would be a lot more confident of all this if I had more data at state level, which I’m hoping Ipsos might publish in due course – they appeared to have adopted the Newspoll practice last year of publishing quarterly state breakdowns, but we didn’t see one for October-December and are now due one for January-March. I’ve been trying to chase this up and will keep you posted.

Newspoll and Ipsos both provided new data for the leadership ratings, which are now detecting an uptick in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, although the picture remains fairly static on preferred prime minister. All of which you can learn more about through the link below.

TECHNICAL NOTE/APPEAL FOR HELP: I’m hoping those of my readers who know their way around web programming might help me resolve an irritating niggle that’s been bedevilling the BludgerTrack display for some time. Namely, that the state breakdown tabs tend not to work, particularly when the page is first loaded. My own experience is that it requires a hard refresh before they will respond. Tablet users, I am told, can’t even do that well.

Based on my research, it would seem to be that the problem lies with the following bit of Ajax code. If anyone thinks they can offer me any pointers here, please get in touch by email at pollbludger-AT-bigpond-DOT-com.

$(document).ready(function() {
$.ajax({
cache: false,
type: "GET",
url: "bt-output.xml",
dataType: "xml",
success: xmlParser
});
});

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

799 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

  1. poroti @ #532 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:41 pm

    Well I say you can fit 42 angels on the head of a pin and you will not be able to convince me other wise .

    You, Sir, are an Evenist. You promote Even Numbers over Odd Numbers. As an Odd Person, I say if you do not repent of your filthy Evenist ways and agree there are 43 Angels on that pin, you shall be consigned to the Black Hole of Mathematics forever more.

  2. Confessions
    I understand that it is the Jewish word for God (Yahweh) and that since God’s name could not be said aloud the spelling is sometimes put as Y*hw*h.
    I may be wRONg on this matter.

  3. Boerwar @ #548 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 6:02 pm

    There is a bit of a problem with Jesus being both God and man, as he was/is/will be.
    Had he married, not spilled his seed, and fathered a girl child, then THAT child would the Daughter of God.
    And then where would we all be?
    Attempts by gays to co-opt Jesus because he was not a practising hetero miss the main point.

    Who says He didn’t. And there wasn’t a Daughter of God? Eh?

  4. I understand that it is the Jewish word for God (Yahweh) and that since God’s name could not be said aloud the spelling is sometimes put as Y*hw*h.

    Cue: The Life of Brian stoning scene

  5. p, P
    The answer is neither a definite 42 nor a definite 43.
    The odds v evens schtick is a theological red herring, an unholy unicorn and the work of Satan.
    Being non-corporeal there is no limit in any direction to the number of angels than can dance on the head of a pin.

  6. The new political correctness – when called out for being rascist, sexist, duttonish you get all offended and claim being offended for being called out for being rascist, sexist duttonish

  7. Burgey says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 7:25 pm

    Check out all these rightards defending Folau’s freedom of speech. The same blokes who hounded a young muslim woman out of the country for a tweet about Anzac Day

    Yassmin Abdel-Magied….I was thinking of her too. She wished to remember loss and persecution. Clearly, Anzac tributes are not common cultural property. Women and especially Muslim women are not permitted to interpret them.

    If the expedition to Gallipoli showed anything, it was that sacrifice has no favourites. It is not at all strange that the commemoration of a futile and senseless life-taking on behalf of a political and military elite should remain the property of an elite. It’s apparently only possible to observe these losses by complying with the orthodox reading.

    I made a habit for a while of attending Dawn Service on Anzac Day in King’s Park. I found the silence and the motion of the crowd very poignant. But it’s an observance I’ve had to suspend while its meaning is in hands of the Crazy Branches.

  8. PuffyTMD says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 7:17 pm
    Boerwar @ #480 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:13 pm

    Dave

    ‘Genesis 38:9 King James Version (KJV)

    And Onan knew that the seed should not be his; and it came to pass, when he went in unto his brother’s wife, that he spilled it on the ground, lest that he should give seed to his brother.’

    God went out of his way to kill Onan for spilling his seed.

    Why all this angst about men’s seed?

    At best 99,999,999,999 out of 100,000,000,000 are losers.

    Puffy

    Haven’t you heard?

    https://www.google.com.au/search?source=hp&ei=Nr-vXKXRPMK0rQHVlpy4BA&q=every+seed+is+sacred&oq=every+seed+is&gs_l=psy-ab.1.0.0j0i22i30l9.1094.2594452..2599133…1.0..2.502.7405.0j13j5j6j3j1……0….1..gws-wiz…..6..35i39j0i131j0i3j0i10j0i30j0i70i249j0i7i30.OvPRh5sMtCQ

  9. Did Forlau threaten violence? Did he threaten discrimination? Did he incite others to do so? No, he did not. Had he done so, I would be with some on here with a pitch fork at the ready. All he did, was say that homosexuals would not gain entry to an imaginary underground world. Therefore the hyperbole of claiming we would be on a short trip back to the deep south racism of the 5o’s, by allowing is a bit of a long bow to draw. Serious point, would people be so bothered if he had just identified atheists or adulterers as being excluded? Would there be such an up roar. Also many on here gunning for Folau, had no problem criticizing Cricket Australia when they sacked the Tasmanian woman who called for free access to abortion. The Thought Police live!

  10. PTMD

    You, Sir, are an Evenist. You promote Even Numbers over Odd Numbers. As an Odd Person, I say if you do not repent of your filthy Evenist ways and agree there are 43 Angels on that pin, you shall be consigned to the Black Hole of Mathematics forever more.

    We prefer to call ourselves Evenangelists. Out great prophet Douglas Adams warned us about youse Oddangelist heretics . 🙂

  11. Not unexpected to see the LNP wheeling out a festering pool of lies regarding Labor’s economic reform, balanced with a bit of kicking the shit out of 1 legged mothers. Oh, and a mother that lost her leg protecting her 4 year old child.

    If this is day 2 to win over the electorate, how can the LNP possibly do worse. I know they’ll find a way.

  12. The Hebrew word for god is “El”, not yahweh.

    YHWH is the name of the Hebrew God .. Hebrew only wrote consonants.

    Yahweh means “i am”

  13. yhwh is simply “I am what I am”.
    Written Hebrew omitted vowels, so it might also mean something else entirely.
    The hebrew scriptures were not written in final form until the late 7th century BCE, and modified later, up till about the 4th or 3rd century. They are loaded with ambiguities and contradictions, and much is also contradicted by archaeological evidence. The Exodus story is largely mythical.
    Not a good look for an all-powerful invisible being! He might have made a more permanent and reliable historical record!

  14. People are petals who need to harden up and stop being so offended and distracted by identity – unless they insult my religion, political beliefs, political party/label, nationality, call me privileged, insult Bernie or Jeremy, criticise Trump (rather than just accepting him as a “symptom”), view my historic heroes through a critical lens, disagree with me… etc, then it’s a hate crime.

  15. Yeah but clem, he can say what he likes. But if it goes against the image and culture his employer wants to foster within its business, then they are within their rights to rissole him. Just as the nrl are within their rights to say they don’t want him and what he represents

    They are private businesses. He was well aware of the ARU’s stance on the issue and had been made aware of the consequences if he went down that road again. He did, and they’re acting.

    No one is throwing him in a gulag. He’s simply parting ways with his employer, who’s said his views are not only contrary to theirs, but also put their revenue stream at risk. That’s just business sense.

  16. PuffyTMD says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 7:28 pm

    poroti @ #532 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:41 pm

    Well I say you can fit 42 angels on the head of a pin and you will not be able to convince me other wise .

    You, Sir, are an Evenist. You promote Even Numbers over Odd Numbers. As an Odd Person, I say if you do not repent of your filthy Evenist ways and agree there are 43 Angels on that pin, you shall be consigned to the Black Hole of Mathematics forever more.

    Aren’t you being primist?

    What’s wrong with integers that can be divided by integers other than 1 and itself?

  17. Over two millennia of careful study has not revealed how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

    But it has indisputably established that the number is irrational.

  18. The challenge: Your the Labor press team; come up with a better way off letting the electorate know that the Labor candidate lost her leg saving her kid or was it kids.

    Second challenge: How do you thank Dutton for his efforts in the hope he delivers again.

  19. Jenauthor @ 4.11pm

    No, you cannot say they are the same. Those courts have totally different roles and functions.

    The most glaring difference is that individual judges of all courts except the HC, can get it wrong and be found to have done so.

    The HC cannot get it wrong, since it is the end of the line for appeals.

    Subsequent HC cases may expand and refine earlier HC judgements, but that is another matter.

    As an author, I am sure you must value some precision in the use of lanuage.


  20. Edi_Mahin says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 7:57 pm

    How big is the head of a pin?

    Big enough to fit 42 angles, and if you don’t believe read hitchhikers guide to the galaxy.

  21. BTW Jenauthor, it is possible that the Telly will appeal and Wigney J may be found to have made an error. Not likely in the circumstances, but not impossible either.

  22. poroti @ #614 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 7:08 pm

    PTMD

    You, Sir, are an Evenist. You promote Even Numbers over Odd Numbers. As an Odd Person, I say if you do not repent of your filthy Evenist ways and agree there are 43 Angels on that pin, you shall be consigned to the Black Hole of Mathematics forever more.

    We prefer to call ourselves Evenangelists. Out great prophet Douglas Adams warned us about youse Oddangelist heretics . 🙂</blockquote

    Hah! Evens get only one Prime Number. We Odds get Primes to Infinity. So it is a Prime Number that must be the total of Angels dancing on the head of a pin, because it is obviously more than two. (Because two would be boring.)

  23. frednk true, but what is the Ultimate Question? And will the Amalgamated Union of Philosophers, Sages, Luminaries and Other Thinking Persons object to that many angels having an orgy?

  24. CC

    Are the omnipotent beings in charge of Vote Compass which is back.

    A few journalists being surprised by the results going on their tweets. 😆

  25. “There is a theory which states that if ever anyone discovers exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable. There is another theory which states that this has already happened.”

    The proof that this has already happened can be found in the comments on a certain political polling blog..

  26. Well I have news for some, none of us are going to heaven and none of us are going to hell either. Hope that doesn’t offend!

  27. Religious believers can be irrational, complex although I don’t think they can be imaginary. They can also be right.
    ____
    How could you possibly know?

  28. ‘PuffyTMD says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 8:11 pm

    Clem Attlee
    Impossible as it is, I want to come back as my dog. The little blighters lived the best life.’

    But you might not be there to love yourself, and then where would you be?

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