BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the final pre-campaign polls added, the poll aggregate records a continuation of the improvement in the Coalition’s position that has been evident for some time, rather than anything that might be called a “budget bounce”.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the three post-budget polls from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, the combined effect of which is to reduce Labor’s two-party lead from 52.9-47.1 to 52.6-47.4. There’s also a fair bit going on within the state breakdowns – in fact, probably too much.

The recovery the Liberals believe they are detecting in New South Wales is well and truly coming through on BludgerTrack, albeit that Labor is still credited with a net gain of two seats there. A significant improvement has also been recorded in the Coalition’s position recently in Western Australia, although here too Labor is credited with a net gain of two seats. What we’re not seeing any sign of is the improved position the Coalition claims to be seeing in Queensland, where reports have suggested they are now hopeful of breaking even by gaining Herbert and limiting the damage in the south-east. BludgerTrack is stubbornly detecting a swing to Labor in the strategically crucial state of over 6%, translating into a gain of nine seats.

I would be a lot more confident of all this if I had more data at state level, which I’m hoping Ipsos might publish in due course – they appeared to have adopted the Newspoll practice last year of publishing quarterly state breakdowns, but we didn’t see one for October-December and are now due one for January-March. I’ve been trying to chase this up and will keep you posted.

Newspoll and Ipsos both provided new data for the leadership ratings, which are now detecting an uptick in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, although the picture remains fairly static on preferred prime minister. All of which you can learn more about through the link below.

TECHNICAL NOTE/APPEAL FOR HELP: I’m hoping those of my readers who know their way around web programming might help me resolve an irritating niggle that’s been bedevilling the BludgerTrack display for some time. Namely, that the state breakdown tabs tend not to work, particularly when the page is first loaded. My own experience is that it requires a hard refresh before they will respond. Tablet users, I am told, can’t even do that well.

Based on my research, it would seem to be that the problem lies with the following bit of Ajax code. If anyone thinks they can offer me any pointers here, please get in touch by email at pollbludger-AT-bigpond-DOT-com.

$(document).ready(function() {
$.ajax({
cache: false,
type: "GET",
url: "bt-output.xml",
dataType: "xml",
success: xmlParser
});
});

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

799 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

  1. Dutton’s malice is in plain sight. Who could possibly want to be represented by such a vile individual?

    This is quite normal for the Liberals. They set out to scorn their opponents and wind up campaigning against themselves.

  2. Pedant
    I thought one of the more interesting ripostes by the one-legged one was that she was searching for just the one house that was wheel-chair enabled while Dutton had NINE houses – only one of which was in Dickson.

  3. BW

    I am not trying to say I believe in the religion. Just looking at what we do know logically.

    Of course we are talking about people who can still argue the world is flat and evolution is a delusion.

    At least the Catholics came to realise reality eventually

    Edit: sorry that came across as if I care what Jesus sexuality was. If you care you miss the point.

  4. Boerwar: “EGT Your’s is an interesting take but it won’t wash with Y*hw*h.”

    My “take” is in fact completely orthodox Jewish and Christian teaching, and the universal (informed) understanding prior to the current era in which it is supposedly OK for a Pastor/Bishop to buy his wife (or indeed his brother’s wife) a $200,000 Lamborghini

  5. Boerwar @ #548 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 6:32 pm

    There is a bit of a problem with Jesus being both God and man, as he was/is/will be.
    Had he married, not spilled his seed, and fathered a girl child, then THAT child would the Daughter of God.
    And then where would we all be?

    Regardless of orientation, trying to score with one or the other child of god.

    Bi-curious participants perhaps get to try for a threesome with both. Does incest count as a sin for demigods?

  6. Israel Folau reaction: Alan Jones defends rugby star
    High-profile broadcaster and former Wallabies coach Alan Jones has slammed Rugby Australia for terminating the contract of Israel Folau.

    Surprise Surprise.

  7. Nicholas @ #546 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 6:31 pm

    It is my opinion that the judge got it wrong. Rush will lose work, not because of what the DT printed, but because the industry has been made to look at itself and it’s practices and not do what it has done for years and let bad behaviour pass if the person doing it was important enough.

    Yes, I agree that this will be the long term legacy of Geoffrey Rush’s behaviour: a more proactive and intelligent approach to maintaining healthy boundaries in the acting community.

    Michael Wagney’s clueless approach to sexual harassment has hurt Eryn Norvill but many other people will experience a more respectful workplace because of her courage.

    So we can look forward to strictly non-contact acting. That should work well!

  8. ‘E. G. Theodore says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 6:36 pm

    Boerwar: “EGT Your’s is an interesting take but it won’t wash with Y*hw*h.”

    My “take” is in fact completely orthodox Jewish and Christian teaching, and the universal (informed) understanding prior to the current era in which it is supposedly OK for a Pastor/Bishop to buy his wife (or indeed his brother’s wife) a $200,000 Lamborghini’

    EGT
    What I don’t understand is just when and why God stopped seed spillers.

  9. mikehilliard: “Crikey, Assange looks like a little old gnome.”
    confessions: “Gandalf comes to mind.”

    That’s really very unfair to Gandalf

  10. EGW

    Nah. Just in rehearsal time more time has to be given to consent.
    Not assumed.

    Its about respect and having guidelines not to abuse a power position.

    Sounds sensible to me. Just an extension of eliminating the casting couch culture.

    Edit: Note that’s not a comment onn Geoffrey Rush.

  11. Bluey needs to know that the West newspaper is also into scoring “Who won today” for the 36 days of the campaign. The West have already given 1 point to Morrison for yesterday for merely announcing the election date. Now I see some other scribe as awarded a point to Morrison today because his 370 million/squillion of Labor taxes having an impact in voter land. I am sure the West will agree with this. So, two days, in and Shorten is still at the starting line while Bluey reckons 2 up for Bill. Fascinating stuff! At this rate it will be 36 nil to Morrison and the election down the gurgler for Labor.

  12. Greens senator Rachel Siewert on Newstart:

    Rachel Siewert said at “long last the dire poverty that people on Newstart are condemned to live in is being recognised” but she wants to see actual action.

    Bill Shorten said earlier: “Newstart starts too low. We’re not reviewing it to keep it at such low levels.”

    “I’ve introduced four private member’s bills to increase Newstart since I’ve been in parliament,” Siewert said in a statement.

    “The community know it is not acceptable that this payment hasn’t been raised for 25 years.

    “The major parties need to get on board with the community, economists and the social services sector and commit to raising the rate of Newstart as a priority after the election.

    “Both major party leaders keep going on about fair go. But no one gets a fair go when they are forced to live in poverty on $40 a day looking for jobs that are simply not there.

    “There is no fair go in this country while people looking for work are condemned to live in poverty.

    “With inequality on the rise, we can’t keep favouring the super wealthy and the big corporate donors of the Liberal and Labor parties or keep trying to buy votes through tax cuts.”

  13. guytaur @ #567 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 6:43 pm

    EGW

    Nah. Just in rehearsal time more time has to be given to consent.
    Not assumed.

    Its about respect and having guidelines not to abuse a power position.

    Sounds sensible to me. Just an extension of eliminating the casting couch culture.

    Edit: Note that’s not a comment onn Geoffrey Rush.

    Actors do what the director directs.

  14. For what it is worth, I don’t think anybody yet has switched in to any of this, and with Easter coming up, the election will be a non-issue, for a lot of people, for at least the next two weeks.

  15. Peg
    Did the Greens say something? Did they introduce something?
    30 years of saying things and introducing things.
    Saying things now and introducing things now.
    Another 30 years of saying things and introducing things to go.

  16. Tricot
    Bluey urges you to beware of false prophets, scribes in rags owned by Stokes and Murdoch, Greens neggers and cheap imitators.
    Bluey reckons he is the only fair, completely disinterested, and totally unbiased daily score keeper.

  17. guytaur

    Your Oxford Dictionary correctly refers to one meaning of faggot as a bundle of sticks. But as applied as slang term for gays could refer to an old woman who was a “faggot gatherer”. That being a job old women did.

    This makes more sense as most insults of gays relate to a man being “womanish”.

  18. https://theconversation.com/geoffrey-rushs-victory-in-his-defamation-case-could-have-a-chilling-effect-on-the-metoo-movement-115127

    An unfortunate side effect of the decision is that it is likely to have an additional silencing effect on sexual harassment discussions and reporting. Such a widely reported defamation case can only further entrench public perceptions of the risks of speaking up.

    There are further concerns. There is the potential for the public to mistakenly see this as a sexual harassment case between Rush and Norvill, rather than a defamation case between Rush and Nationwide News.

    Since the court found that the defence of “truth” was not proven, this may lead to a misconception that Norvill’s statements about inappropriate behaviour were a lie. This will only be reinforced by Wigney’s statements questioning Norvill’s credibility, saying she was a witness “prone to exaggeration and embellishment”.

    But having insufficient evidence to prove the truth of a statement in law is not the same thing as it being a lie. That misconception has the potential to exacerbate stereotypes about women making up claims of assault and harassment.

  19. Questions about eligibility under Section 44 have forced the Liberal Party to relinquish three of its preselected candidates in Melbourne just as the election campaign begins.

    The party’s candidate for the marginal north suburban Labor seat of Wills, Vaishali Ghosh, was forced to step aside over her Indian heritage, while Kate Oski, Liberal candidate for the safe western suburbs Labor seat of Lalor, had to resign because she may be able to claim Polish citizenship through her father.

    Helen Jackson, the Liberals’ candidate for Cooper (formerly known as Batman), was asked to resign from the contest because she is an Australia Post employee, but she has refused and will soon be disendorsed, Liberal sources say.

    Working as a public servant may compromise a candidate’s eligibility, according to Section 44 of the Australian Constitution.

    The party is scrambling to find new candidates ahead of the close of nominations on April 23, and will need to double-check the eligibility status of their other candidates ahead of the election on May 18.

    Future MPs and senators are required to state the place and date of birth of themselves and their parents, and details of renunciation of foreign citizenship.

    The constitutional crisis badly damaged the 45th parliament with 17 senators and MPs resigning over their dual citizenship statuses, obliging high-profile politicians such as Barnaby Joyce, John Alexander and David Feeney to resign and recontest their seats in by-elections.

  20. “mundo says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 6:27 pm
    Bernard Keane on the Drum tonight just explained why – not directly – Morrison wins today.
    All the TV news bulletins I saw ran with 387 billion of new Labor taxes says Scotty.
    End of story.
    Forget the nuance, forget the facts.”

    On Ch9 news at 6pm that story played third fiddle to Dutton and some “exclusive” on Turnbull Jnr associated with fundraising companies for four Independents challenging Liberal candidates. Naturally the Libs have complained to the AEC!

    On Turnbull Snr & Jr, it looks like Snr has delegated Jnr to attack the Libs while he goes to the Big Apple for the duration of the campaign.

    Ch9 seem to be giving fairly equal opportunity for Lib, Lab and Indos to state their case.

    Morrison certainly didn’t win any contest today. The best bit was scumbag Dutton opening his mouth and Morrison failing to criticise him.

  21. mundo

    I went into media blackout during the Howard years. It helped my temperament when dealing with having little kids!

  22. What really shets me about the NBN coverage is there’s never any distinction ,ade between the Labor build (fibre) and the coalition dumbarse build (MTM)
    I’t’s just NBN

  23. Peg
    At least one of the incidents described by Norvill was alleged to have occurred in front of the cast, those of the crew who were looking on from the wings, and 700 people in the audience.
    The only other witness who ‘witnessed’ the incident subsequently admitted that he could not do so because there was another actor on the stage interrupting his line of sight at the time the incident was supposed to have happened.

  24. We watched the 7 news here in Melbourne. The tax issue was covered and the treasury rebutal was included with the letter mentioned

  25. For a bit of a laugh…

    Shorten’s class war on professions

    Bill Shorten doubles down on plan to stop wealthy claiming accountants’ fees, also taking a swipe at real estate agents.
    By RICHARD FERGUSON (Oz headline)

  26. ‘laughtong says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 7:05 pm

    We watched the 7 news here in Melbourne. The tax issue was covered and the treasury rebutal was included with the letter mentioned’

    Greg Jennet just opined that the Gaetjens letter has just killed the $387 billion line.

  27. Boerwar
    I almost spit my drink on the keyboard on the Dutton kicking the other leg out from under the one legged woman line.

  28. HSO
    Having had to endure various insults over the course of several elections, Bluey reckons he is highly sensitized to Eight Armism and all of its monopedal derogatory variations.

  29. Boerwar @ #480 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:13 pm

    Dave

    ‘Genesis 38:9 King James Version (KJV)

    And Onan knew that the seed should not be his; and it came to pass, when he went in unto his brother’s wife, that he spilled it on the ground, lest that he should give seed to his brother.’

    God went out of his way to kill Onan for spilling his seed.

    Why all this angst about men’s seed?

    At best 99,999,999,999 out of 100,000,000,000 are losers.

  30. Folau’s remarks reflect very poorly on him. He’s defined himself as a religious bigot and extremist and a homophobe. He really has disgraced himself. It’s no surprise at all that Rugby Australia wish to dissociate themselves from him. People are highly sensitised to these kind of expressions – to the publication of hate. Christchurch – a display of hate gone completely mad – was only a few weeks ago. The racial attacks on the Sudanese community are still fresh in the mind. The denunciation of refugees also rings out. Really, if people want to make a name for themselves by defiling others, they have to expect what comes back. We could all do with a lot less hate-mail. There is no exemption for religiously motivated vilification. It is still vilification. Punters will not have it. The contumely, the malice…it is all repulsive.

  31. PuffTMD

    You make an interesting statistical point but you would have to ask Y*hw*h the answer to your question. He started it all when Onan apparently spilled 250 million sperms on at least one occasion.
    The stats are around 250 million sperms per ejaculation.
    Say an average of 150 ejaculations per year from puberty (say 14) until the age of (say 84) gives you around 70 years worth of around 150 ejaculations per ejaculation times 250 million sperms per ejaculations.
    That comes to around two and a half trillion sperms per male over a lifetime, of which, on average slightly less than two sperms make it to an egg.

  32. Check out all these rightards defending Folau’s freedom of speech. The same blokes who hounded a young muslim woman out of the country for a tweet about Anzac Day

  33. (Apologies if posted previously)

    Labor has escalated a political fight over claims of a $387 billion tax burden under its election policies, prompting Treasury Secretary Phil Gaetjens to say the government’s economic officials did not cost Labor policies.

    Labor shadow treasurer Chris Bowen wrote to Mr Gaetjens on Friday to demand an explanation for the government’s use of “Treasury costings” to attack the Labor policies.

    Mr Gaetjens replied with confirmation the department prepared the cost estimates, but he made it clear these were based on instructions from the government.

    “We were not asked to cost another party’s policies and would not do so if the request was made specifically to ‘cost Party X’s policy’,” Mr Gaejtens wrote to Mr Bowen.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6042433/morrison-caught-lying-bowen-demands-answers-from-treasury-over-387-billion-tax-costing/?cs=14350

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