BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the final pre-campaign polls added, the poll aggregate records a continuation of the improvement in the Coalition’s position that has been evident for some time, rather than anything that might be called a “budget bounce”.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the three post-budget polls from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, the combined effect of which is to reduce Labor’s two-party lead from 52.9-47.1 to 52.6-47.4. There’s also a fair bit going on within the state breakdowns – in fact, probably too much.

The recovery the Liberals believe they are detecting in New South Wales is well and truly coming through on BludgerTrack, albeit that Labor is still credited with a net gain of two seats there. A significant improvement has also been recorded in the Coalition’s position recently in Western Australia, although here too Labor is credited with a net gain of two seats. What we’re not seeing any sign of is the improved position the Coalition claims to be seeing in Queensland, where reports have suggested they are now hopeful of breaking even by gaining Herbert and limiting the damage in the south-east. BludgerTrack is stubbornly detecting a swing to Labor in the strategically crucial state of over 6%, translating into a gain of nine seats.

I would be a lot more confident of all this if I had more data at state level, which I’m hoping Ipsos might publish in due course – they appeared to have adopted the Newspoll practice last year of publishing quarterly state breakdowns, but we didn’t see one for October-December and are now due one for January-March. I’ve been trying to chase this up and will keep you posted.

Newspoll and Ipsos both provided new data for the leadership ratings, which are now detecting an uptick in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, although the picture remains fairly static on preferred prime minister. All of which you can learn more about through the link below.

TECHNICAL NOTE/APPEAL FOR HELP: I’m hoping those of my readers who know their way around web programming might help me resolve an irritating niggle that’s been bedevilling the BludgerTrack display for some time. Namely, that the state breakdown tabs tend not to work, particularly when the page is first loaded. My own experience is that it requires a hard refresh before they will respond. Tablet users, I am told, can’t even do that well.

Based on my research, it would seem to be that the problem lies with the following bit of Ajax code. If anyone thinks they can offer me any pointers here, please get in touch by email at pollbludger-AT-bigpond-DOT-com.

$(document).ready(function() {
$.ajax({
cache: false,
type: "GET",
url: "bt-output.xml",
dataType: "xml",
success: xmlParser
});
});

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

799 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

  1. Edi_Mahin @ #424 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:13 pm

    The comments by Peter Beattie that Israel Folau would not be registered as an NRL player are clearly discrimination against Israel Folau because of his religious beliefs.

    Yeah, nah. You show me where anyone said Folau is being denied registration because of he belongs to any particular religion.

    Otherwise it’s clear that he’s being denied registration because of unnecessary and divisive public commentary that he directed towards gay people, drunks, and fornicators.

    EGW @ #437 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:19 pm

    He problems were because of her father, not her mother.

    Yes, but I assume her mother and father are (or were at some point) legally married. And that Polish law might grant the spouse of a citizen an opportunity to apply for Polish citizenship too.

    Could certainly be wrong on both of those assumptions. But if what you’re looking for is someone clear of any potential s44 issues, further up the same family tree is not the smart direction to climb.

  2. What happens when people start losing their jobs for expressing progressive views? That is the danger, it can so easily be turned around.

  3. I think the issue for labor re the costings is not the accuracy but it is all to do with the government caught lying.

    Yesterday Morrison stated the election was all about trust. Now, on just the second day Morrison, Frydenberg and others have been caught out lying.

    Whether it gets a run on the news tonight or not is secondary. Every interview, every day labor will mention the lying. Every time Morrison et al make outrageous statements about labor policy or costings labor has the lying card ready and the Treasury statement in their pocket to prove it.

    This is a gift to labor and is about more than a 24 hour issue. It will be used for the whole campaign.

    My simple take anyway.

  4. zoomster is it not against the law for an employers to discriminate against someone for their religious beliefs including in recruitment.

  5. Edi_Mahin says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 5:19 pm

    They are Israel Folau’s religious beliefs. There is nothing wrong qwith being anti-homosexuality if God is anti-homosexuality.

    Bbbbbut doG created us all.

    How could it be so fallible and create homosexuals if it is against them?

  6. EGW, Israel Folau was posting his comments to save people from being burnt, that is him showing love to people. If he hated homosexuals or drunks or adulterers or liars he would be happy just to let them be burnt.

  7. Christians should not say any person is “going to hell” as that is impossible to know, unless you are God.

    Israel Folau is showing massive pride. 🙂

  8. Rex, things can change. Many on here argue against the freedom of speech of this guy only because they disagree with him. What happens if religion comes back in vogue and anti religious sentiment goes against an employer’s world view. Would you support an employee losing their job if they said churchies were deluded and that there is no god?

  9. Edi_Mahin @ #421 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:29 pm

    EGW, Israel Folau was posting his comments to save people from being burnt, that is him showing love to people. If he hated homosexuals or drunks or adulterers or liars he would be happy just to let them be burnt.

    Why can’t she just love homosexuals or drunks or adulterers or liars ..?

  10. Edi_Mahin @ #425 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:13 pm

    The comments by Peter Beattie that Israel Folau would not be registered as an NRL player are clearly discrimination against Israel Folau because of his religious beliefs.

    Why do you think that expressing stupid and directly harmful religious beliefs should be free of criticism? Should the Sultan of Brunei’s religious beliefs be free of criticism, entailing, as they do, the stoning to death of homosexuals? Should ‘Mother’ Theresa’s forbidding desperately poor Indian women from using contraception, because of her warped religious beliefs, be free of criticism? People are free, of course, to believe whatever nonsense thay like, but for a prominent sportsperson to spout primitive drivel which directly harms young people, directly in contradiction of a contract he has signed and accepted, is not ok, as he has found out.

  11. Rex Douglas who is the ‘she’ you are talking about. Israel Folau is a male and by posting what he did Israel Folau was showing he does love homosexuals and drunks and adulterers and liars.

  12. Clem Attlee @ #449 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:25 pm

    What happens when people start losing their jobs for expressing progressive views?

    What makes you think that hasn’t already happened, and isn’t still happening?

    It’s the world we live in. For the vast majority of people, employment is at-will. If your employer decides they want you gone, for any reason or none, they can generally find a way to make that happen. So it’s prudent for most people to keep their professional, political, and religious lives separate, and people mostly do.

    And that’s all fine, except for the indignation that flares up on occasion when people confuse “free speech” with “say whatever the fuck you want and face no consequences for it ever”.

  13. Edi

    No – religious schools, for example, are allowed to discriminate – they can refuse to employ a teacher who professes a different (or no) religious belief.

    In Falau’s case, he signed a contract which included restrictions on his speech. This is common. If he didn’t want to sign the contract and thus restrict his speech, he should have negotiated a different one.

  14. Clem

    Its hate speech because it’s denigrating a whole class of people.

    See racism. Same standard. Remembering “Christians” literally used to burn gay people. Its where the word fa**ots came from.

  15. So that poor woman has freedom of speech, but not the deluded sky pilot? Posters on here agreed with her, but not with Folau, that is the only difference and it is an illogical position to hold. Thank you linesman thank you ball boys, game, set, match and championship!

  16. zoomster I was not talking about his contract with the ARU, it seems he did break that contract therefore he cannot complain if he is sacked.

    I was talking about Peter Beattie saying Folau could not play in the NRL because a contract would not be registered because of Folau’s religious beliefs.

  17. 2019 Election Bluey’s Report on Day 2

    Bluey reckons that Dutton’s effort to kick the only leg out from under a one-legged woman is something that will linger in the mind for some time. Challenged to say something negative about this Morrison opined that Dickson probably does have people in it that enjoy kicking the legs out from under one-legged women and that Dutton was quite entitled to make public representations on behalf of these pricks. Besides, opined God’s Rottie, she must have been lying, so there. Bluey reckons charming, just charming and that Banks, O’Dwer, Chichui, Prentice and numerous other Liberal women must have been thanking their lucky stars that they had two legs each.

    Having earlier demonstrated his ability to weep crocodile tears at a Christchurch pinch, Morrison is now demonstrating that when it comes to the spawn of the devil, don’t expect any milk of kindness from him.

    Bluey reckons that having disposed of yet another uppity woman, Morrison and Frydenberg then went on to lie about what Treasury had said and done. The two Pinocchios reckoned that Treasury reckoned that Labor was going to stick the taxpayer for $3,870,000,000,000 over the next century. Bluey reckons that today’s porky is, numerically speaking, an Australian record.
    Gaetjens, perhaps thinking that Frydenberg might only be his boss for the next 36 days, was out of the gates like a rat up a drain pipe with WTTE ‘Frydenberg and Morrison are lying.’ Morrison was not too fussed about lying about what Treasury did or did not do, and went on to explain it all by lying that Treasury does this sort of thing all the time.

    Bluey has a special Day 2 politics quiz for Bludger tragics. This is a unique opportunity only available to Bludgers. Bluey humbly points out that the quiz is not authorized by William.

    1. Who is going to spend $400 billion a year on the UBI, $200 billion over some indeterminate period of time on new houses and who has also indulged in a bit of same same negging? One point.
    2. Who is going to steal over half a billion weekends per annum? One point.
    3. She had a go so he had a go! Who enjoys kicking one-legged women? One point.
    4. She had a go so HE had a go as well! Who enjoys telling everyone that it is OK to kick one-legged women because they are liars? One point.
    5. Who has a positive message about the future of a fairer Australia? One point.
    6. Who wore a silly sombrero? One point.
    7. Who announced a big increase in cancer research? One point.
    8. Who told a $387 billion lie? Half a point each.
    9. Who managed to restrain himself from stealing utes and weekends from his victims without getting caught for another whole day? One point.
    10. Who smile lots of times on the TV today and who smirked and ranted on the TV today. Half a point each.

    Bluey reckons that if you can’t get 100% you are, like 99% of the electorate, not paying attention.

    In terms of scoring, Bluey is going to mark the Coalition down for sticking it to a disabled woman, for politicizing the public service and for the size of its lies. Bluey marks up Labor for being positive and having a vision. And Bluey squirts black ink on the Greens because their sums are bottom of the harbour stuff. So:

    Score for the day. Labor 1. Coalition 0. Greens 0.
    Progress score. Labor 2. Coalition 0. Greens 0.

    .

  18. Edi_Mahin @ #452 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:26 pm

    zoomster is it not against the law for an employers to discriminate against someone for their religious beliefs including in recruitment.

    He is free to hold whatever idiotic cult beliefs he likes.
    He is not free to engage in hate speech.
    Are you incapable of seeing the difference?

  19. Well, he denigrated me, but I’m not a snowflake. it’s his opinion, I don’t agree, but then I don’t agree with a lot of people. he has not wished harm on anybody, even me. all he has said is that as an atheist, I’m going to hell if I don’t find Dog. Seriously… that’s grounds for a guy losing his job? What a bunch of snowflakes. He should be ridiculed, he should be made to look the fuck wit he is. I think that identity warriors fail to see that this mob mentality can just as easily be turned against progressive speech, as Bill has shown.

  20. Dave

    ‘Genesis 38:9 King James Version (KJV)

    And Onan knew that the seed should not be his; and it came to pass, when he went in unto his brother’s wife, that he spilled it on the ground, lest that he should give seed to his brother.’

    God went out of his way to kill Onan for spilling his seed.

  21. One wonders if Israel Folau is nearly as vocal about other sins, like hypocrisy, greed and pride.

    Saying something on twitter is hardly “private” and I have a considerable lack of sympathy for someone earning a seven figure salary getting reprimanded for doing something extremely public, that they knew would be provocative and have been cautioned for previously.

    If I went around my work saying that I think Christians should/will burn in hell or even something milder I’d get sanctioned pretty bloody quickly and I don’t earn 2/10 of fuck all of what he does (and I think I work a hell of a lot harder for it). In fact I’ve seen colleagues have pretty shit used against them in an effort to push them out or bully them. I monitor what I say at work and to work colleagues all the time in case the wrong thing slips out. As a gay man working in a sensitive area I make damn sure no-one can use anything against me and I am judged on my professional merits. To be honest this guy can fuck right off (he says under a pseudonym).

    He’s a spoilt, over-entitled brat who deliberately used his status provided by his position to cause controversy. I don’t see how you can argue he’s behaved with any semblance of professionalism, respect for his employer or fans of the game who don’t agree with him.

    Its comparison with the Cricket Australia case don’t even come close

  22. Guytaur

    What is your evidence for this? As far as i know “faggot” for gays is more recent US term.

    What is your evidence for gays being routinely burnt in the auto de fe? I think this is a recent urban myth.

  23. EGW, as I have explained, Israel Folau’s comments are not based on hate, they are based on love.

    If you see someone in a situation where they are about to come great harm is it an act of love or an act of hate to try and stop them coming to that great harm?

  24. Zoomster: “Which is OK, because being persecuted as a Christian gets you bonus points in the hereafter, which – for a Christian – should be the main game, surely?”

    That has never been the main game in Christianity and largely went out in the fourth century. More generally, deliberately contriving martyrdom for religion is a very bad idea and not ever part of Christianity.

    Also – the fourth century woman saint Macrina the Younger is really cool:
    https://monasticmatrix.osu.edu/cartularium/life-macrina-gregory-bishop-nyssa

    “Whether Macrina had had formal philosophical training or not, she was at the centre of an intellectual family.”

    Given that other members of her family included her younger brothers Basil of Caesarea, Gregory of Nyssa, Peter of Sebaste (and via family friendship or possibly marriage of her sister, Gregory of Nazianzus), she was the teacher of those key Bishops, all of whom had central roles in the formulation of the Nicene Creed and the doctrine of the Trinity, amongst other things. This puts the lie to various modern heresies.
    https://www.placefortruth.org/blog/macrina-younger-–-fourth-cappadocian

    There is nothing in Christianity advocating going out and offending people so as the draw attention to oneself; quite the opposite, in fact.

  25. Edi_Mahin @ #465 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:34 pm

    Rex Douglas who is the ‘she’ you are talking about. Israel Folau is a male and by posting what he did Israel Folau was showing he does love homosexuals and drunks and adulterers and liars.

    Not even close. I mean, we can set drunks and adulterers and liars off to one side, because nobody is born a drunk/liar/adulterer. But if someone is homosexual, it’s because they were born homosexual.

    There’s no “love” in telling someone to change how they were born or else burn forever. None whatsoever.

    Clem Attlee @ #472 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:37 pm

    So that poor woman has freedom of speech, but not the deluded sky pilot?

    Which sky pilot? The one who refused to skywrite pro-ssm messages after writing an anti-ssm message?

    Completely different case because he’s operating a for-profit business where in exchange for money he’ll write someone else’s speech in the sky. The words he puts into the sky aren’t his.

  26. EGW, it seems that Israel Folau’s beliefs, not mine, is that the immortal souls of the wicked, not the body which is burnt at cremation, will be tortured in hell forever.

  27. Boerwar @ #480 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:43 pm

    Dave

    ‘Genesis 38:9 King James Version (KJV)

    And Onan knew that the seed should not be his; and it came to pass, when he went in unto his brother’s wife, that he spilled it on the ground, lest that he should give seed to his brother.’

    God went out of his way to kill Onan for spilling his seed.

    Or killed him for having it off with his brothers wife ?

    So how is that homosexuality ?

  28. Clem,

    If you acted as unprofessionally as this guy, would you not get hauled in front of the principal/department? To my mind, this is what it’s about. He’s abusing his position for his own ends.

  29. Edi_Mahin

    “The comments by Peter Beattie that Israel Folau would not be registered as an NRL player are clearly discrimination against Israel Folau because of his religious beliefs.”

    It was my understanding that Folau was criticised not for his religious beliefs per se, but for public dissemination (via social media) of certain aspects of those beliefs.

  30. dave
    Good point. Being homosexual is not an offence, per se. Spilling your seed is. So, as long as gays hang onto their seed, apart from nocturnal emissions, they can still get to Heaven.

  31. ‘That has never been the main game in Christianity and largely went out in the fourth century.’

    I hope someone has told Jesus – he’d better do a rewrite —

  32. Kakuru,
    but it is part of his religious beliefs that he has to disseminate them. Preaching is a clear obligation of being a Christian.

  33. Not sure how all the Israel Folau stuff here relates to the election or the polls.
    It is however – educational – to a degree.

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