BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the final pre-campaign polls added, the poll aggregate records a continuation of the improvement in the Coalition’s position that has been evident for some time, rather than anything that might be called a “budget bounce”.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the three post-budget polls from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, the combined effect of which is to reduce Labor’s two-party lead from 52.9-47.1 to 52.6-47.4. There’s also a fair bit going on within the state breakdowns – in fact, probably too much.

The recovery the Liberals believe they are detecting in New South Wales is well and truly coming through on BludgerTrack, albeit that Labor is still credited with a net gain of two seats there. A significant improvement has also been recorded in the Coalition’s position recently in Western Australia, although here too Labor is credited with a net gain of two seats. What we’re not seeing any sign of is the improved position the Coalition claims to be seeing in Queensland, where reports have suggested they are now hopeful of breaking even by gaining Herbert and limiting the damage in the south-east. BludgerTrack is stubbornly detecting a swing to Labor in the strategically crucial state of over 6%, translating into a gain of nine seats.

I would be a lot more confident of all this if I had more data at state level, which I’m hoping Ipsos might publish in due course – they appeared to have adopted the Newspoll practice last year of publishing quarterly state breakdowns, but we didn’t see one for October-December and are now due one for January-March. I’ve been trying to chase this up and will keep you posted.

Newspoll and Ipsos both provided new data for the leadership ratings, which are now detecting an uptick in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, although the picture remains fairly static on preferred prime minister. All of which you can learn more about through the link below.

TECHNICAL NOTE/APPEAL FOR HELP: I’m hoping those of my readers who know their way around web programming might help me resolve an irritating niggle that’s been bedevilling the BludgerTrack display for some time. Namely, that the state breakdown tabs tend not to work, particularly when the page is first loaded. My own experience is that it requires a hard refresh before they will respond. Tablet users, I am told, can’t even do that well.

Based on my research, it would seem to be that the problem lies with the following bit of Ajax code. If anyone thinks they can offer me any pointers here, please get in touch by email at pollbludger-AT-bigpond-DOT-com.

$(document).ready(function() {
cache: false,
type: "GET",
url: "bt-output.xml",
dataType: "xml",
success: xmlParser

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

799 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

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  1. At Clem Atlee. Agree. One can see the Murdoch press trying it’s darn hardest to scare punters to back the LNP. Labor needs to come out Of the gate and project the alternative Government. First polls will be interesting.

  2. Jennifer Hewitt’s column in today’s AFR is surprisingly balanced, one nice comment

    Shorten described his team as “hungry”. (NB to Coalition MPs: That translates into a hunger for power rather than for eating one another, no matter the temptations.)

    Sorry no link, but google “On a Political Wing and a Prayer”.

  3. My impression at the end of the first day of campaigning remains the same as it has been for a while:
    ie, that the Libs are likely to get a lot of traction with their negative campaigning against Labor’s suite of tax policies. I also noted the pretty unambiguous statement by the two Centre Alliance senators, who are likely to hold the balance of power, that they would oppose some of these policies and only support the rest in a highly modified form.

    So it seems to me that Labor is entering this campaign with a big policy albatross hanging around its neck which, even if it wins government, it will struggle to implement. I continue to feel quite bewildered as to why Labor chose to go down this route, so highly reminscent of Hewson’s failed 1993 campaign against a government which the electorate was equally keen to throw out, but ultimately and quite unexpectedly clung to because they felt that they couldn’t trust Hewson and his team.

    Meanwhile, the planet is heading towards a climate catastrophe and Australia desperately needs a government that takes the issue seriously. Why is Labor not focusing on this key issue rather than that of the never-popular area of taxation reform: especially at a time when the budget is moving into surplus, and swinging voters are likely to be nervous about falling house prices and the volatile share market? Thanks to its equivocal stance on Adani, Labor isn’t even sending a totally clear message to the electorate on climate change.

    Yes, the Morrison Government is starting from so far back that it remains likely that Labor will still scrape over the line. But my mind keeps wandering back to the hoary old saying “Never give a sucker an even break.”

  4. Day two of the federal election campaign – Opposition Leader Bill Shorten making an early start to visit the Sydney Markets at Homebush. He’ll be campaigning with Labor’s candidate for seat of Reid, @SamPCrosby #ausvotes19 @FinancialReview

  5. After Homebush, it’s on to Bennelong for Bill.

    Meanwhile, Scotty has got his eleventy billion Lie- make it a Big Lie – to spruik to the gullible masses.

  6. Yesterday a thread was posted, copied from Twitter, which gave the full story of Angus Taylor, Barnaby and water trading. This has now disappeared on Twitter.

    The Bunyip @WrittenOnWater
    15m15 minutes ago

    Was @MsVeruca’s account deleted because of this thread questioning Angus Taylor’s role in water trading? I’m no expert in water trading so am unable to judge but wiping the account makes it look like Twitter has folded to political pressure.

    It looks as if the LNP’s busy little elves are trying to censor any criticism of the current government in social media. Labor has a tough enough fight against the bullies of the MSM, without any added pressure. The ABC has already been castrated.

  7. This is low gutter tactics from Dutton

    Peter Dutton has targeted the Labor candidate in his marginal seat of Dickson, accusing amputee Ali France of using her disability “as an excuse’’

  8. The ALP has been planning the campaign for a long time, and know the Murdoch outlets and their running dogs won’t give them much shrift. They also know that a growing number get their news from Facebook, where the Scotty Scare Campaign ™ will be competing with target ads like this…

  9. Given I’m a fan of Honda, I’m disappointed I wasn’t targeted.. but you get the picture about what is possible on the social media platforms, who know many things about you, including what type of car you may have, searched for, or followed …

  10. BUSTED: Trump had an Assange poster in his debate war room

    President Donald Trump on Thursday denied knowing anything about WikiLeaks, the organization that helped his 2016 presidential campaign by releasing emails stolen by the Russian government that damaged Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

    In the wake of the arrest of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange on alleged hacking and conspiracy charges, reporters asked the president if he had any comment on the man whose organization he heavily promoted during his election campaign.

    “I know nothing about Wikileaks,” Trump told reporters. “It’s not my thing.”

    However, as CNBC’s Christina Wilkie reports, Trump loved WikiLeaks so much back in 2016 that he had a poster of Assange in his campaign’s debate war room that featured the caption, “Dear Hillary, I miss reading your classified emails.”

  11. This campaign seems to have been going already for so long even though it’s only been a day…

    I’m shocked that the Coalition are still competitive after the past few years. The Government as far as I’m aware has no policy agenda for the future and it surprises me people would be willing to vote for that

  12. Someone should ask Peter Dutton whether Jordan Steele-John uses HIS disability as ‘an excuse’?

    Anyway, way to lose the votes of every disabled voter in Dickson, meathead.

  13. phoenixRED @ #16 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 6:56 am

    BUSTED: Trump had an Assange poster in his debate war room

    President Donald Trump on Thursday denied knowing anything about WikiLeaks, the organization that helped his 2016 presidential campaign by releasing emails stolen by the Russian government that damaged Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

    In the wake of the arrest of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange on alleged hacking and conspiracy charges, reporters asked the president if he had any comment on the man whose organization he heavily promoted during his election campaign.

    “I know nothing about Wikileaks,” Trump told reporters. “It’s not my thing.”

    However, as CNBC’s Christina Wilkie reports, Trump loved WikiLeaks so much back in 2016 that he had a poster of Assange in his campaign’s debate war room that featured the caption, “Dear Hillary, I miss reading your classified emails.”

    There’s also this, with video of Trump praising Wikleaks in his 2016 campaign:

  14. phoenixRED @ #19 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 6:59 am

    Trump Mentioned Wikileaks 160 Times In A Month, But Now Claims He Doesn’t Know Them

    In the final month of the 2016 campaign, Trump mentioned Wikileaks in some way, 160 times, but after Assange’s arrest, he claims he doesn’t know them.

    Yep. Trump makes up new lies so quickly in his eternal present mode of governing that it’s hard for people to keep up with the old ones. He counts on collective amnesia from his followers.

  15. Despite the impression the government ads tried to give, no, the Morrison government has not increased real infrastructure spending.

    And the vast majority of the cranes and lollypop people working on transport infrastructure around the nation are being funded by state governments, not the feds.

    The blatantly political ads were annoying before the federal budget, as was Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s claim to be boosting the federal infrastructure spend.

    They’re still annoying because the boost is fake.

    In real terms, the treasurer is only promising to restore federal spending to a bit less than what former treasurer Joe Hockey promised five years ago.

    No need to guess that Factcheck won’t bother with it.

  16. lizzie @ #23 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 7:03 am


    I should have referenced you directly. Sorry. I was just too lazy to scroll back on the previous thread.

    Not a problem. I just wanted to give people a guide to where to go to read it. It took a bloody long time to get it into a coherent form but it was worth it because it shows everything that is wrong about this venal government and how they carry out their real agenda in the shadows.

    For the wealthy. By the wealthy.

  17. I found this factoid in the David Crowe article today verrry interesting:

    The writs were issued on Thursday and the electoral roll will close on Thursday of next week, April 18, the deadline for Australians to enrol to vote or amend their details at the Australian Electoral Commission.

    The government also faces an April 18 deadline to reveal some of the hidden spending and savings decisions in the budget, including a $2.7 billion spending cut in 2022 which was not announced on budget day.

    These and other measures must be revealed before Good Friday, April 19, because the Pre-Election Fiscal Outlook must be issued by Treasury and the Department of Finance within 10 days of the issue of the writs.

    I had forgotten about PEFO. Treasury has got to fess up.

  18. C@t

    And how Angus Taylor has made money effectively through “insider trading”/Barnaby and is apparently using Cayman Islands. No wonder he has that well fed, smooth tanned look of the rich.

  19. For those who thought that ABC reporter Brigid Glanville was lacking a certain impartiality during the NSW election campaign, she has just been appointed as the new Director of Policy and Strategy for the NSW Education Minister.

    Well may you ask what her qualifications and experience are for the role, but who cares about details such as that ,when you’re dealing with the ABC and LNP maaaaates.

  20. Phoenix,

    I had a poster of The Cure on my wall in the 80s but that doesn’t mean I was across everything Robert Smith was up to.

  21. True ????

    Pete EVANS‏ @911CORLEBRA777

    The underlying lede here. President Moreno has directly accused Assange of using electronic devices to hack into the security & diplomatic database of the Ecuadorian Embassy in London

    Louise Mensch‏Verified account @LouiseMensch

    I have reported for years that #julianAssange continued to tweet the @DefendAssange and @Wikileaks accounts while supposedly “banned”. But it was three weeks or so since sources told me the methods by which he did it. Hacked into the Embassy’s intranet

  22. @Bowenchris
    43m43 minutes ago

    Dear oh dear @JoshFrydenberg Yesterday you (falsely) claim our negative gearing costing is wrong. Today you release alleged Treasury costings showing it is right. You’ve got to remember which scare campaign you are running Mate.

  23. @ C@tmomma
    Thanks for your efforts. So many,many things are frightening about the return of this Government. But I would put it simply down to one thing-the threat to our democracy. Not since the Japanese invasion threat of WW 2 has our democracy been so imperilled. There, I’ve said it.

  24. Morning all


    Robert Smith of the Cure, I daresay was on many benders during the eighties! Ultimately his music continues to be a cut above. Still my favourite music of all time.

  25. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Sean Kelly says that Morrison’s zombie government is limping towards the end.
    The Australian’s Simon Benson says t will all be a bout trust.
    Katharine Murphy declares that it’s Morrison or bust for Coalition as Labor bets on mood for change in 2019 election.
    According to David Crowe Morrison will warn Australians of a $387 billion burden from Labor tax hikes and revenue increases in an incendiary election attack.
    Phil Coorey tells us why the next five weeks will pull Morrison in all directions.
    Shane Wright says that Labor is starting the federal election campaign with an aggressive push into a string of safe Liberal Party seats across the country, with Bill Shorten to focus on a $125 million boost to research into fighting cancer.
    George Megalogenis writes that for the second time this decade, Australians are poised to remove a federal government without enthusiasm for the alternative. He says a Labor landslide will not settle our cultural argument if it unleashes a cosmopolitan payback against older Australia. An upset victory for the Coalition, secured once more on a narrow geographical base in Queensland, will only perpetuate it.
    Michelle Grattan says that, unlike Turnbull, Morrison will have the gloves off in this election campaign.
    Unemployment is at an eight-year low and budget surpluses are locked in, but Chris Bowen will have to navigate falling house prices and slow wage growth to join Peter Costello in the budget surplus club.
    Eryk Bagshaw says that Centre Alliance, the party emerging as Senate kingmakers, will punch a multi-billion dollar hole in a Labor government budget, after declaring its opposition to raising the top income tax rate and two of Labor’s signature policies.
    Corporate Australia has urged the next government to provide certainty on energy policy and address a looming skills shortage as it expressed concern over industrial relations and wages policies heading into the election.
    The SMH editorial says that this time voters will get to choose a prime minister who’ll stay for three years.
    David Crowe reckons that Shorten is short on detail and Morrison is a messaging mess.
    Tony Wright asks, ”Could there be a more apt confluence of events than the first photograph of a black hole and the announcement of Australia’s election?”
    Politics professor Judith Brett writes that not since the war have the conservatives faced such a tough election. She says that perhaps in this election leadership will not be the focus it has become, and voters will remember they are electing a government, not just a prime minister.
    And in similar vein Peter Hartcher concludes that thus time the depressing contest means we have to consider the choice of parties and policies, not personalities. He says all indications are that the people are about to bring the curtain down on a leader they’ve judged to be no better than his party, in the hope that Labor is a party that can be better than its leader.
    Richo writes that it is hard to find a positive omen for the Liberals at the ­moment. At every turn they seem thwarted. When your time is up it is marvellous how many times your luck runs out as well.
    Peter van Onselen says Scott Morrison has framed the May 18 election as a presidential contest between himself and Bill Shorten.
    Michael Pasoce says there’s immediate upside in the unofficial election campaign becoming official: It should mean no more misleading, taxpayer-funded election advertising about federal infrastructure investment.
    Voters in key seats will be hit by an avalanche of phone calls, door-knocking campaigners and extra advertising as third-party groups plan a massive attack on marginal and high-profile seats before the May 18 federal election.
    Sam Maiden and the battle on policy costings.
    Paul Kelly says that Morrison must find a way to burst “Backyard Bill’s “ bubble.
    Real estate agents across the ­nation have declared war on Bill Shorten’s negative gearing overhaul and will mount a four-week campaign using customer databases to target buyers, sellers, landholders and tenants in key marginals seats.
    Greg Jericho says that the latest IMF report should provide sobering reading for both major parties ahead of the federal election.
    Jacqui Maley writes that whatever you think of the Geoffrey Rush defamation judgment, it will stiffen the necks of media lawyers everywhere, who will have to give even more serious consideration to the publication of sexual misconduct allegations, given the possible price tag for such stories runs to nearly $1 million.
    And Michaela Whitbourn says Geoffrey Rush is expected to receive one of the biggest defamation payouts in Australian history after his comprehensive victory against The Daily Telegraph.
    Paolo Totaro opines that fascism is back and it’s time to stop pretending it’s not.
    The Coalition’s foolhardy war on electric cars.,12566
    The Labor Party has been actively seeking ways to cut down on emissions causing global warming, writes David Leitch.,12562
    Mark Latham has tweeted his ‘unreserved apology’ over comments accusing university student Mohamed Nizamdeen of “plotting to kill senior federal MPs” in the midst of a defamation suit between the pair. Really?
    Our retirement incomes system has been built around the assumption that most will own their own homes. New projections suggest it’s no longer valid.
    It would appear Assange is headed for a world of trouble.
    Henry Ergas laments the mess we are in with the failing NBN.
    Jacob Saulwick examines the five Sydney seats in play.
    And Noel Towell looks at the influence Victorian voters will have on the election outcome.
    The 15 South Australian issues that will come into play on election day.
    Commonwealth Bank boss Matt Comyn is believed to be working on a plan to cut more than 10,000 employees, about $2 billion of costs, at Australia’s biggest and most profitable bank. No wonder Comyn wants to keep the plan secret — at least until after the May 18 election.
    Engineering professor Marcus Brazil explain that Australia’s electricity grid can easily support electric cars – if we get smart.
    And now it comes out that before last month’s crash of a flight that began in Ethiopia, Boeing said in a legal document that large, upgraded 737s “cannot be used at what are referred to as ‘high/hot’ airports.”
    One in five of those appointed to government bodies in the past two weeks have links to the Liberal or National parties, analysis reveals.
    Labor is building a case to review the approval of the Adani mine’s groundwater management plan, accusing the government of using the start of the election campaign to avoid scrutiny over whether environment minister Melissa Price’s decision was subject to interference.
    Doug Dingwall reports that The Tax Office has told staff it is cutting jobs within weeks of receiving a funding boost for its compliance work. Tax officials on Thursday learnt the agency would begin a rapid round of voluntary redundancies to be finished by June.
    The UK Guardian says that whatever happens next, the nationalist right has lost the battle for Brexit.
    Wesfarmers’ controversial $1.5 billion takeover bid for Lynas Corporation has attracted the attention of the corporate regulator, ASIC.
    Former Pope Benedict has blamed the Catholic Church’s sexual abuse scandal on the effects of the sexual revolution of the 1960s, homosexual cliques in seminaries and what he called a general collapse in morality. Of course nothing was happening be fore then was it?
    By catering to the right, Trump and Netanyahu are harming Palestinians, making Israel less safe and further damaging America’s reputation says The Guardian.
    And for “Arsehole of the Week” we have this little prick.

    Cartoon Corner

    Mark David’s been busy.

    As has been David Rowe.

    Simon Letch – They’re off and running!

    David Pope sums up Day 1 of the campaign.

    From Matt Golding.

    Cathy Wilcox and the good old times.

    from Sean Leahy.

    Jim Pavlidis sees an end to it all.

    Zanetti begins the campaign.

    And he looks at the government’s reaction to the vegan protest.

    This image speaks for itself.

    Jon Kudelka and changing times.

    From the US

  26. BK,

    Wonderful contribution as always. I doubt you’ll be busy these next few weeks.

    Please know your efforts are greatly appreciated by all on PB

  27. I will not be surprised if Ms Norvalis ends up as the “winner” (poor choice of term, I know) out of this legal stoush. Nice to see she turned up on the steps of the court and said to the judge: “Yeah, nah”. Interesting that the AFR thinks this is a blow to the Me Too movement. Oh, really? Like most entitled white fogeys, they have no idea.

  28. onebobsworth,
    Thanks. I know corruption at the heart of government when I see it. No pretty boy Minister, or his mouthy adulterous sidekick, is going to fool me. Nor their threats of legal action. They can come for me with all they’ve got, I’m the one who put it up, but I have no assets for a reason. So I can be a truth teller that can’t be intimidated.

  29. Real estate agents across the ­nation have declared war on Bill Shorten’s negative gearing overhaul

    Cranky real estate agents eh. Crikey if Bill isn’t careful he’ll have used car salesmen after him .

  30. antonbruckner11

    Regardless of the facts of the matter, I think the newspaper’s tasteless smear was completely beyond the pale and they deserve to pay.

  31. Another great contribution by Rick Wilson………..

    First are the fans of Donald Trump, who understand that the leaks of Hillary Clinton’s emails were a political neutron bomb that exploded under her campaign in the closing weeks, the ultimate oppo drop.

    Joining them are the American Bernie Bros and the Glenn Greenwald demographic of America-can-do-no-good types who look at anything that weakens US influence in the world as a net positive. American political ideology is no longer a line, but a horseshoe, with the extremes looping toward one another in an asymptotic curve of edge-case crazy.

    Of course, no current American scandal cycle is complete without a risible level of historical revisionism on the part of Trump and his supporters. In a White House press availability today, the President of Lies said, “It’s not my thing. I know there is something having to do with Julian Assange. I’ve been seeing what’s happened with Assange… I know nothing really about him. It’s not my deal in life.”

  32. Fess

    There are so much news about at the moment including this….

    Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump’s older sister, federal appellate Judge Maryanne Trump Barry, has retired — halting an investigation into whether she broke judicial conduct rules by committing tax fraud, The New York Times reported Wednesday, citing copies of the decision provided by two complainants.

    The investigation was prompted by a New York Times bombshell report last fall indicating that the Trump family had participated in tax schemes to maximize Trump, Barry and their siblings’ inheritances. Barry, whom the Times found to be an active participant and beneficiary in the schemes, filed her retirement papers 10 days after court officials notified complainants that the matter was “receiving the full attention” of a judicial conduct council, according to the paper.

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