BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the final pre-campaign polls added, the poll aggregate records a continuation of the improvement in the Coalition’s position that has been evident for some time, rather than anything that might be called a “budget bounce”.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the three post-budget polls from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, the combined effect of which is to reduce Labor’s two-party lead from 52.9-47.1 to 52.6-47.4. There’s also a fair bit going on within the state breakdowns – in fact, probably too much.

The recovery the Liberals believe they are detecting in New South Wales is well and truly coming through on BludgerTrack, albeit that Labor is still credited with a net gain of two seats there. A significant improvement has also been recorded in the Coalition’s position recently in Western Australia, although here too Labor is credited with a net gain of two seats. What we’re not seeing any sign of is the improved position the Coalition claims to be seeing in Queensland, where reports have suggested they are now hopeful of breaking even by gaining Herbert and limiting the damage in the south-east. BludgerTrack is stubbornly detecting a swing to Labor in the strategically crucial state of over 6%, translating into a gain of nine seats.

I would be a lot more confident of all this if I had more data at state level, which I’m hoping Ipsos might publish in due course – they appeared to have adopted the Newspoll practice last year of publishing quarterly state breakdowns, but we didn’t see one for October-December and are now due one for January-March. I’ve been trying to chase this up and will keep you posted.

Newspoll and Ipsos both provided new data for the leadership ratings, which are now detecting an uptick in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, although the picture remains fairly static on preferred prime minister. All of which you can learn more about through the link below.

TECHNICAL NOTE/APPEAL FOR HELP: I’m hoping those of my readers who know their way around web programming might help me resolve an irritating niggle that’s been bedevilling the BludgerTrack display for some time. Namely, that the state breakdown tabs tend not to work, particularly when the page is first loaded. My own experience is that it requires a hard refresh before they will respond. Tablet users, I am told, can’t even do that well.

Based on my research, it would seem to be that the problem lies with the following bit of Ajax code. If anyone thinks they can offer me any pointers here, please get in touch by email at pollbludger-AT-bigpond-DOT-com.

$(document).ready(function() {
$.ajax({
cache: false,
type: "GET",
url: "bt-output.xml",
dataType: "xml",
success: xmlParser
});
});

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

799 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 16
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  1. antonbruckner11 @ #41 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 7:36 am

    I will not be surprised if Ms Norvalis ends up as the “winner” (poor choice of term, I know) out of this legal stoush. Nice to see she turned up on the steps of the court and said to the judge: “Yeah, nah”. Interesting that the AFR thinks this is a blow to the Me Too movement. Oh, really? Like most entitled white fogeys, they have no idea.

    The Judge was fairly scathing of Norvalis’ credibility as a witness. He basically said she made it all up.

  2. Day 2
    Haven’t seen or heard anything from Scrotty in my media blackout phase of the campaign so feeling pretty upbeat….although I wish I could unsee that Zanetti crap…memo to Mundo avoid BBs cartoon corner…..

  4. Andrew Leigh
    ‏@ALeighMP
    12h12 hours ago

    Having cut thousands of ATO jobs, the Liberals are axing 170 more. They’re spending millions of your tax dollars on ads boasting about multinational tax, while making it tougher for the ATO to crack down on tax avoidance. #auspol #inequality

    The cuts will come after budget papers on April 2 revealed the Coalition would plough money into the Tax Office’s compliance work, and a day after ATO officials appeared at a Senate estimates hearing in Canberra for questioning.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6027174/ato-reveals-jobs-cut-on-first-election-campaign-day/

  5. “The Judge was fairly scathing of Norvalis’ credibility as a witness. He basically said she made it all up.”
    Privileged white male tells woman she made it up. Gosh, that’s a first. From memory, Norvalis initially made the complaint against Rush to her employer. It was the theatre company that leaked it to the media.

  6. GG
    To be cynical.
    Israel has done what needed to be done to get out of his contract so that he can return to the NRL and a lucrative home at the Cowboys.
    You do what you gotta do!

  8. Sohar – I haven’t followed the facts closely at all (“he said”/”she said”, etc etc – it makes my head spin). But I suspect it all came down to cruel arithmetic. The judge would find one witness unreliable or say that several prominent people were unreliable. What are ya gonna do! If the Telegraph thought it had a chance on the truth defence, I dunno why.

  9. Sohar @ #57 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 8:07 am

    “The Judge was fairly scathing of Norvalis’ credibility as a witness. He basically said she made it all up.”
    Privileged white male tells woman she made it up. Gosh, that’s a first. From memory, Norvalis initially made the complaint against Rush to her employer. It was the theatre company that leaked it to the media.

    The judge was there and heard all the evidence and made his call.

    I’d trust him over your mouthy whinging every day of the week.

  10. GG – Judges can say what they like. Wigney is a good judge. But no judge is even close to infallible. He may be right, he may be wrong. He weren’t there. None of us were. Theoretically, of course, he only had to find that there was a 51% chance that Rush was telling the truth and that is enough (though the courts don’t like talking about percentages).

  11. I keep reading that my electorate (Casey) is one of the possible “in dangers”, but as a counterpoint I am also reading that Speaker Tony Smith (Casey) is safe.

    I am unaware of any effort Smith has made on Casey’s behalf, except an annual FIGJAM mail-out.

    I’m not going to vote for him just because we have the ‘privilege’ of sending a Speaker to Parliament.

  13. antonbruckner11 @ #62 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 8:14 am

    GG – Judges can say what they like. Wigney is a good judge. But no judge is even close to infallible. He may be right, he may be wrong. He weren’t there. None of us were. Theoretically, of course, he only had to find that there was a 51% chance that Rush was telling the truth and that is enough (though the courts don’t like talking about percentages).

    From his comments the Judge was more than 51% sure that Norvill was embellishing and fantasising.


  14. antonbruckner11 says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 7:36 am

    I will not be surprised if Ms Norvalis ends up as the “winner” (poor choice of term, I know) out of this legal stoush. Nice to see she turned up on the steps of the court and said to the judge: “Yeah, nah”. Interesting that the AFR thinks this is a blow to the Me Too movement. Oh, really? Like most entitled white fogeys, they have no idea.

    This has get to be the silliest comment I have seen in poll bludger. Our legal system will long outlive Ms Norvill, what were the words the judge used “who was, at times, prone to exaggeration and embellishment”.

  15. A couple of classic PB moments this morning:

    C@tmomma
    says:
    They can come for me with all they’ve got, I’m the one who put it up, but I have no assets for a reason. So I can be a truth teller that can’t be intimidated.

    Onebobsworth
    says:
    Not since the Japanese invasion threat of WW 2 has our democracy been so imperilled. There, I’ve said it.

  16. Good Morning

    Confessions

    None of what Assange is being charged with can relate to the 2016 campaign for the British.

    Unless they can specifically prove he was involved in the hacking.
    This is entirely unrelated to the charges he is facing now.

    In fact your point is what his lawyers will be using to argue against the death penalty risk.

    While I agree with the judge about narcissism in the Bail hearing Assange should get time served because of his well founded belief about pending US charges. The whole basis of his asylum claim being proved by the US.

    Assange is not a US citizen and yes he could have been working with the Russians. That does not change the rule of law and justice.
    What does matter is how far Assange went in aiding a crime in the US as distinct from just receiving and publishing the results.

    In other words how much is political and how much is law. The political should play zero part in any trial for extradition

  17. One thing we can learn from Zanetti’s ‘cartoon’ is that Rupert has not given up on Scrott. When the ‘toonists turn we’ll know Rupe or Rupe jnr has sent the word out.

  18. Will Twitter now ban Michael West?

    Michael West @MichaelWestBiz
    3m3 minutes ago

    ASIC searches show Angus Taylor was a director and secretary of Eastern Australia Agriculture. Last yr profit $28m. No tax. Sale of water licences $52m. Parent is Eastern Australia Irrigation (Cayman Isles) which appears to have received $14m in interest payments.

  19. frednk @ #66 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 8:21 am


    antonbruckner11 says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 7:36 am

    I will not be surprised if Ms Norvalis ends up as the “winner” (poor choice of term, I know) out of this legal stoush. Nice to see she turned up on the steps of the court and said to the judge: “Yeah, nah”. Interesting that the AFR thinks this is a blow to the Me Too movement. Oh, really? Like most entitled white fogeys, they have no idea.

    This has get to be the silliest comment I have seen in poll bludger. Our legal system will long outlive Ms Norvill, what were the words the judge used “who was, at times, prone to exaggeration and embellishment”.

    Frednk. You are prone to exaggeration and embellishment. There, I said it! Beat that.

  21. The performance of Michael McCormack with Fran Kelly this morning was an absolute train wreck. He is an unmitigated dill.

  22. I quite enjoyed and agree with Peter Hartcher’s assessment that the election: “It’s a contest between an angry dad figure in a baseball cap and a sad sack who looks like he learned public speaking at a funeral parlour.”

  24. antonbruckner11 @ #71 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 8:25 am

    frednk @ #66 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 8:21 am


    antonbruckner11 says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 7:36 am

    I will not be surprised if Ms Norvalis ends up as the “winner” (poor choice of term, I know) out of this legal stoush. Nice to see she turned up on the steps of the court and said to the judge: “Yeah, nah”. Interesting that the AFR thinks this is a blow to the Me Too movement. Oh, really? Like most entitled white fogeys, they have no idea.

    This has get to be the silliest comment I have seen in poll bludger. Our legal system will long outlive Ms Norvill, what were the words the judge used “who was, at times, prone to exaggeration and embellishment”.

    Frednk. You are prone to exaggeration and embellishment. There, I said it! Beat that.

    You’re right. But, Fred probably hasn’t read much of your commentary in the past.

  28. I hope Australians choose a government with a broad policy platform that they will need to work hard, together, to deliver. It would be a shame if we rolled the dice with another mob of malcontents easily distracted from their task by opportunities to tear each other down. I am impressed, for the first time, that the Labor Party does have an impressive suite of policies. This morning we’ve heard some optimistic news from treasury that over the next decade, because of those policies, they have much more hope of balancing the books than the coalition. It was very kind of the PM to have that modelling completed before he dissolved the parliament but I suspect the range of probable range over the decade could be in the hundreds of billions so perhaps my hope is misplaced.

  30. guytaur

    To exaggerate and embellish there has to be truth to so exaggerate and embellish.

    Doesn’t seem to apply to the LNP.

  32. “Old privileged white man”
    ——————
    What a condemnation.
    I wonder in contemporary cant which adjective is the most evil?

    Being “old”?

    Being “privileged”?

    Being “white”?

  36. Dave Sharma @DaveSharma
    13m13 minutes ago

    Amazing who you see at a commuter stop! ⛴ Great to run into an old friend @TurnbullMalcolm down at the #RoseBay wharf this morning.

    Awww, isn’t that sweet.

  37. GG – I have nothing but respect for most of the judges in our system. They are honest and hard-working. They have a tremendous esprit. They want to do justice. Wigney is a good judge. He would have sweated blood over this case. I’m sure it would have caused him great distress. But the system they are embedded in has, inevitably, great shortcomings when it comes to finding out the truth. Judges are given salami slices of reality and the past truly is an historical novel that each person has written in his mind. I have no idea how you fix that. Litigation isn’t a science; it isn’t even an art; it’s a game. All you can ask is that a judge brings an honest mind to the decision.

  39. guytaur @ #68 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 8:25 am

    While I agree with the judge about narcissism in the Bail hearing Assange should get time served because of his well founded belief about pending US charges.

    Or he should get not-extradited-in-the-first-place given that he’s not a U.S. citizen and not currently in a U.S. territory. He also wouldn’t have been in any U.S. jurisdiction at the time of the crime alleged in the extradition request (having already been holed up in the embassy by then).

    The U.S. likes to play world police. It would be better if they stopped (and if the rest of the world stopped enabling them).

    None of which is to say that Assange doesn’t deserve a bit of comeuppance for his political machinations, but that doesn’t make the U.S. right either. More like both sides are wrong.

  40. nath @ #67 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 8:24 am

    A couple of classic PB moments this morning:

    C@tmomma
    says:
    They can come for me with all they’ve got, I’m the one who put it up, but I have no assets for a reason. So I can be a truth teller that can’t be intimidated.

    Onebobsworth
    says:
    Not since the Japanese invasion threat of WW 2 has our democracy been so imperilled. There, I’ve said it.

    They were as nothing compared to your, ‘I’m sitting in the spa smoking a blunt as I type this’. 😆

  41. antonbruckner11 @ #87 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 8:47 am

    GG – I have nothing but respect for most of the judges in our system. They are honest and hard-working. They have a tremendous esprit. They want to do justice. Wigney is a good judge. He would have sweated blood over this case. I’m sure it would have caused him great distress. But the system they are embedded in has, inevitably, great shortcomings when it comes to finding out the truth. Judges are given salami slices of reality and the past truly is an historical novel that each person has written in his mind. I have no idea how you fix that. Litigation isn’t a science; it isn’t even an art; it’s a game. All you can ask is that a judge brings an honest mind to the decision.

    And, your point?

  43. Awww, isn’t that sweet.

    Wouldn’t it be funny to see Liberals now clamoring to have Turnbull campaign with them. Esp those who voted against him in the leadership spill.

  44. What about Tony Burke being a ‘top barrister’ with a ‘fine legal mind’. Despite never practicing law? that’s gotta be up there. 🙂

  46. Onebobsworth@7:24am
    “Not since the Japanese invasion threat of WW2 has our democracy been so imperilled”
    I do not know about Japanese invasion but it is true that our democracy is imperilled now.
    And the main culprit are Murdoch press and …..

  47. nath @ #96 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 8:50 am

    What about Tony Burke being a ‘top barrister’ with a ‘fine legal mind’. Despite never practicing law? that’s gotta be up there. 🙂

    Or then there was the time you reminisced about hanging outside the Collingwood Neighbourhood Centre looking for a wombat experience. Putting it euphemistically. 🙂

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